Topic: Is it possible to calculate how much the price of BTC? - page 3. (Read 775 times)

Any Mathematical calculation for the future price of Bitcoin in my opinion would just be base on probality,  because those Mathematical calculation did not put into account the effect of supply and demand side which is unexpected events that could occur in the future,  precisely government ban or adoption which can either be a catalyst and favour the price of BTC or deter the price movement from reaching the expected price and hence will alter the overall future mathematical price prediction for Bitcoin.

I totally hear what you are saying and don't want to disagree cos I believe the same opinion too but I am a bit confused here looking at this Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart (Log Scale)
This first image shows just about the exact price amount of Bitcoin at the time of making this post


And this second Image is telling us that (IF) Bitcoin gets to that point on 23.04.2023, its price would be $38,528.89



But I get the argument will be, will Bitcoin be in that point, above it, or below that point on that particular day hence my concern of, is this, not some sought of Calculation into the future? Because if you put your cursor everywhere within that Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart, a price will pop up meaning there has been some price calculation into the future regardless of where Bitcoin price ends up. ^{Just trying to understand it.}

 

Especially if this cryptocurrency is very easy to manage and has a very high volatility. If the bear market is comfortable for the whales, they will do it, if they need growth, they will do it too. Because it's their benefit.

I say good luck finding that out.
Many have tried but all of them failed. If you see someone who did it correctly, he could just be a lucky guy who predicted it right once in his lifetime.
It's like bruteforcing a password containing every special character, letter, and number. It will take time, and once you are done the password was already changed, or in Bitcoin's market perspective, the price already changed.
It's easy to buy Bitcoin and even a kid can do it now unlike other assets and investments. That's why. Demand could go soaring in an instant.

I think it is definitely impossible to determine absolutely with accuracy the price of BTC in the market. There are several factors that drive its price, which is mostly dependent upon supply and demand. Given that BTC is also volatile in nature, its value changes at least almost every single minute or second of the day.

Many have attempted to at least forecast the price of BTC in the following days by considering both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. When you put them into consideration, it can yield to to you some signs and factors that can somehow determine whether to invest or not.

If Bitcoin won't die, it will be accepted more globally. And if it continues its existence and expands its adoption, with each halving its price will be boosted to a new higher all time high.

I can not give you predictions about future price because it depends on so many parameters and many of them I can not control.

However, if you want to get something about current and near future vision, you can use the Realized price chart from Lookintobitcoin.com. Currently we are in a good price range to accumulate and DCA Bitcoin. You can wait for a bit lower price but don't bet on too lower price, you might miss a train.

• Is Bitcoin bottom there yet? Fear & Greed, Pi Cycle Top / Bottom
• Weekly RSI leaving oversold conditions

You can have all the calculations you want, but it won’t give you a fixed and precise amount of price for bitcoin since it’s price never fails to fluctuates from time to time. And you cannot tell exactly how high or low its demand 5-10 years from now as its price greatly depends on its supply and demand factor. Also, bitcoin is too much volatile, that you can expect it to have a roller coaster price movement most of the time.

I would like to have that magic formula, but I prefer to think that bitcoin will go up a lot next year, it is the most likely thing I see, I am guided by the projection that the S2F model has, many say that it has already failed, but it is not like that, It is the most approximate and real model that I see for bitcoin, here in the forum there are many guys who are PRO -S2F and few who are against it, but since such extreme things are happening in the world, it is the reason why it does not go up bitcoin like foam, there are many who do not believe that it will rise, that when it reached 70,000 dollars I thought it would reach more than 100,000 dollars, but the whales did not think so.

there is no mathematical formula to determine the price of bitcoin for certain period of time. that is right, we have no idea what will happen next. if btc will continue to expand in the market, and the demand will progress throughout these years, high probability of increasing its price. however, if something new will be introduced that we don't know yet, then, that's the trouble here.
right now, what we can do is just speculate what will happen to this market few years from now. experts, self-proclaimed ones and others are just doing their predictions. no one can guarantee what will happen in the next couple of years, or 10 years from now. so big NO, no one can calculate the price of btc as the factors also vary from time to time.

You can't calculate, you can only estimate, the same way you can't calculate the price of Tesla stock in 10 years. Maybe they will disappear by then or Musk dies and the new CEO bankrupts the company.

All I can tell you is that if bitcoin continues to exist it will be worth more in 10 years than it is today. Will that be 50k or 500k USD, we'll know in 10 years.
In short time frame like 1 year, it's possible its price will be lower but the value is around 20k so if the spot price goes below the current level don't be alarmed.

No one will be able to predict the price of bitcoin in the future, analyzing does not mean being able to know about the price of bitcoin. We can see now, who can analyze what the bitcoin price will be in the future? I don't think so. But the analysis of the bright future of bitcoin in the future is something that can be predicted, because it does not say what the exact price will be, maybe 100k, 200k or more than that.
We don't need to argue about this, because everyone has a different opinion. One thing is certain, the future of bitcoin is bright.

Exactly. You will never know it’s price until you see it with your own two eyes it’s high demand from its users and investors. The higher the demand, the bigger the price, while it’s supply will become lessen. So most probably, you can freely predict its price 5-10 years from now, but you can never tell if you can hit the exact price since the demand varies depending on the crypto market condition. However, I would say that the price of bitcoin will keep on growing and increasing as years pass by, as many people have start to experience bitcoin more than fiat.

Your first calculation is wrong. Where did you get your 21 billion  caps? In mathematics if you mis-insert one figure with another or miss-express the sum then every other calculation is wrong. Because the first formula determine the answer. The total bitcoin created by Satoshi was 21 Million caps and not 21 billion caps. Its like you manufacture your own bitcoins. I do not think, it is possible for one to calculate the unit of BTC that will go up and come down in the market. Because BTC is in the market and the total number of users buying and selling at the same time is differ. You can only predict the movement of the market. That is to say, btc can go up in the next 3 days based the news. Please do not stress yourself to calculate the price of btc in the 10 years. Though I am not a mathematician but I don't think you can do it,

It is hardly possible to predict what the price of bitcoin or other cryptocurrency will be in about ten years from now. In addition to purely mathematical calculations, the price of a cryptocurrency is greatly influenced by economic and political events that occur daily in the world. These events are impossible to predict. But it is they who will influence the ratio of supply and demand, which directly form the price of the cryptocurrency.

No matter what everyone says. The Moral and the last answer is NO. No one can calculate or Give you the Exact ETA of Bitcoin Price for the future. Some people were saying Bitcoin won't touch 100K again. The last ATH was because of the Covid 19. While I partially agreed, I don't think we handled the previous ATH because of the Covid 19. Back in 2017, We didn't have Covid 19. How did it reach the 20K mark back then? It depends on demands and popularity. Spread the positivity of Bitcoin. Own your money with security and anonymously. Don't give access to others to handle your money. It's your asset.

It's not a matter of complicated maths, it's a matter of how high the demand will be in the future, and that isn't something that can be calculated. The only maths calculations we can, IMO, make are related to the global economy's value, estimating how big it'll be in a few years (there are estimates for that) and trying to reasonably predict which percentage from the global economy Bitcoin market can take. But it'll just give rough estimates of how high it can possibly go, not what the price will actually be.

It is possible to calculate how much btc will cost when the last coin out of 21,000,000 is mined, but it is impossible to say whether this figure will be true. We can say with confidence that the price will be many times higher than the current one. This is based on past growth rates and if inflation is taken into account. Also, the influence of many factors may change the estimated cost bitcoin in the future. If you define btc as a commodity, then the standard market laws will apply to the coin. If bitcoin is in demand by that time, then the price will be correspondingly high. I believe that at such long distances, the price prediction of bitcoin will have very large errors.

1-10 years is easier to predict due to the growth bitcoin's cycle, which repeats itself after about 4 years. There is an opinion that by 2024-2025 btc will cost more than $100,000. No one will name the exact figure, but this level must be completed.

I don't see a threat of the underlying asset being banned. But banning it's generation and its coming to life through PoW mining activities is surely something many would love to see getting banned or restricted. That would kill the bitcoin we know without restricting people from using it. 

The code has been out there for so long. It's been reviewed and thoroughly checked by both honest and malicious actors. One should never say never, but I think we are a long way from someone finding and taking advantage of a serious vulnerability or a bug in the codebase. 

We can only make assumptions based on the current time period but don't know what will be the scene in future like the demand and use of bitcoin at that time.We can be speculative at this time but these can totally be wrong so you can't say that according to this supply the price will be this because it's dependant on demand at that time.

the amount of coins in circulation has nothing to do with the number of coins on a market

normal high school economics tells you less coins in circulation means higher price.. and so using dumb high school economics when bitcoin had 11mill coins in 2012 the price should have been higher than now  19m coins.

so forget high school economics

price discovery is based on the coins on the market. not coins custodian on exchanges. but actual coins being put onto market orders

you cannot predict the sentiments/whims of peoples decisions to guess the price

however there is one fundamental that you can work out.. the window in which the price will wiggle within

think of it this way

if everyone one the planet can mine bitcoin for less than X no one will happily buy bitcoin for much more then X because everyone can get bitcoin cheaper by other means.

so there is always a top X level of a price window

also if no one can mine bitcoin below Y no one would be foolish to acquire bitcoin for more and then sell for less.. so there is a limit of the bottom window of Y

right now Y=$15k and X=$95K
and he price will wiggle within this window due to random sentiment

when bitcoins mining costs increase due to the competition of hashrate or the reward halving. this widow values will increase meaning the price within the window will increase.

so calculate out the cost of mining on the next gen asics releasing in early 2023. and a reasonable increase of hashrate in 1 years time. do the maths on the lowest mining cost with cheapest electric and then most expensive electric and you will see how much the window increases by which can then help calculate possible future growth


in short last year X was ~$75k. which is why the sentiment of the speculative price only wiggled up to the $70k ATH

this year if there was enough emotion and sntiment to push the price up. it would max out at ~$90k

the more costly it is to mine the more people would be willing to just buy it