Is this statiscally possible in a lottery? - page 4.

acroman08

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Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on October 01, 2022, 11:04:51 PM

Statistically very unlikely, I think that would be more accurate, but people tend to think that what is very unlikely to happen is impossible, and that is a mistake.

I guess that would be a more accurate word to use.

Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on October 01, 2022, 11:04:51 PM

Very curious what happened in the Bulgarian lottery. I'm sure that the fact that the same combination came up in two close draws made many people think that the lottery was rigged, even more than in the case told by the OP.

I saw an article that they did an investigation about it since the result raised suspicion of manipulation. anyway, the article said that the investigation did not find any foul play or manipulation and it was impossible to tamper with the lottery machine and drawing the number takes place while a special committee is present and the event is also being broadcast live.

here's the article if you are curious to read it
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lottery-idUSTRE58H4AM20090918

Baofeng

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Quote from: ralle14 on October 02, 2022, 12:10:12 PM

Quote from: xSkylarx on October 01, 2022, 06:59:14 PM

What do you think? Is this really possible in lottery?

For me it's possible as I remember back then some of the used lotto tickets i've seen from one of my friends are based on patterns or numbers that usually have a meaning behind them so if you look at it in a different way there would be more people leaning on these certain numbers compared to the others. Also, it made me wonder when was the last time the jackpot was hit with so many winners and if this is the highest number of winners that won the jackpot.

I would also agree that it is possible, I mean even though there are a lot of numbers and combination, still there is a chance the multiple bettors will bet on the same numbers.

Why? maybe those numbers have significance to them, age, birthday etc, so most likely probably. That's why I'm against the news that the Senate will involved themselves and try to investigate, geesh. Who will be their resource person? mathematicians and statisticians that will say that it is possible and what is the odds? Doesn't make sense to me.

uneng

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I suppose the winners of this draw were even more lucky than the winners from previous draws, because it's indeed an unique result we don't see frequently. We can't say it was rigged, though, as the possibility of having that result is possible by the rules of the lottery. Moreover, I believe if the game was to be rigged the result would be something less evident, involving random numbers instead of a pattern.

Anyway, you as a gambler, has always the option to bet on another lotteries if you think this one is looking suspicious to you. There are many alternatives on the internet, especially in crypto universe for gamblers who enjoy lottery draws. So you can definitely go for it next time!

ralle14

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Quote from: xSkylarx on October 01, 2022, 06:59:14 PM

What do you think? Is this really possible in lottery?

For me it's possible as I remember back then some of the used lotto tickets i've seen from one of my friends are based on patterns or numbers that usually have a meaning behind them so if you look at it in a different way there would be more people leaning on these certain numbers compared to the others. Also, it made me wonder when was the last time the jackpot was hit with so many winners and if this is the highest number of winners that won the jackpot.

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Quote from: Jating on October 01, 2022, 08:14:02 PM

I'm not a statistic guy, but I will say that it is possible what not sure what are the odds are.

Also, isn't it this kind of lottery results are being shown in the public as it has been draw with the representative of DTI? (I will assumed this is Philippines as it shows PHP). So they have to collude with the government and win this numbers?

As Tesla believed though, the numbers 3/6/9 is the "secret of the universe".

1 statistician mentioned that the odds of this happening is 10 ^ 700, far more than 10^80 number that a lot of physicists consider as the number of atoms in the whole observable universe. He also took into account the nature of Filipino bettors when it comes to betting in the lottery: they don't follow patterns, they just pick their birthdays, special numbers, and other numbers that has some meaning to them. I know it's an answer that is not statistically sound, but the idea is there. The odds of this happening is extremely low, plus the fact that 433 winners managed to get the right combination is also insane.

A lot of people are already questioning the integrity of last night's draw. Whether those balls were weighted less to get picked a lot easier is also already in talks. Whatever happened that night, we're sure that it will not be repeated any time soon.

Cling18

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Quote from: BobK71 on October 02, 2022, 08:46:11 AM

It is not unusual to be suspicious of the way people are being cheated at every level. And the image the OP is sharing here is spot on that it is divisible by 9. But here the matter of lottery selection should be kept in mind in which process lottery selection is being done. If all were not divisible by this 9 then there would be no doubt in anyone's mind. But I think it doesn't matter. Those are the lucky ones who got those numbers.

They say that Filipino bettors are playful when it comes to betting and no wonder why there are 433 lottery winners in one day. Maybe those people have been betting with the same winning combination for a long time. It may sound suspicious but anything unexpected can happen in gambling. If the powerhouse has not been honest, then it will also be unfair to millions of bettors who put their hope on them.

o_e_l_e_o

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Quote from: Jemzx00 on October 02, 2022, 09:24:03 AM

The amount of winners for this combination is almost statistical impossible.

Quote from: molsewid on October 02, 2022, 10:10:12 AM

it is quite unusual to get a huge number for that lottery.

Not only is it not statistical impossible at all, but it is perfectly understandable and entirely expected. The very fact that we have a thread created about these numbers because they conform to some specific "pattern", is proof enough that humans see this pattern as unique or special. Because of this, more people will choose these numbers. Just like numbers under 31 are chosen more frequently because of birthdays, or the number 13 is chosen less frequently because of superstition. If the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 were drawn, which are statistically just as likely as any other six numbers to be drawn, you would find thousands of winners simply because this is a pattern which holds meaning for us.

The same can be seen in bitcoin private keys. Your private key should be generated randomly, and you should avoid picking any obvious pattern, but despite that we know that keys such as 101010....101010 which generates the address 12Zuey14JDyFSeNVqLKNqb6gfSWos7iTj4 have been used multiple times.

Eternad

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Quote from: molsewid on October 02, 2022, 10:10:12 AM

Quote from: xSkylarx on October 01, 2022, 06:59:14 PM

Yesterday, many people were surprised on the result of our lottery. The number that came out were are all divisible by nine. There are many speculations now that the lottery is rigged and the result was already fixed. It's just hard to believe that since they always do live draw to show transparency about the result. What do you think? Is this really possible in lottery?

Image Source:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid0xogg6pv17aDJe94MQCYAaNiUdDpxnQFczyrY4Gaaf91BMhmarBtnx8p8iXWMZd4sl&id=100069066345193 (I just cropped the image to focus on the 6/55 draw)

Honestly, I've been shock that in my entire life I had never encounter a 400+ winners for a certain mega jackpot, I can't say that it is statistically impossible there will be a possibility of course but it is quite unusual to get a huge number for that lottery. I am not a statistics person, I am not trained to analyze the possibilities of this but I always have a doubt, does this 400+ people are real? we will see that if they will go to the office and claim the money. I am sure many eyes are drawn to the winners. they will monitor if there's an unusual number of people going to the office.

There's no such thing as statistically impossible especially that this scenario only happened once. And also as many already point out about the patterns of winning jackpot then its possible that this winners are doing the same pattern thing on there bets which result to this too many winners.

It's normal to doubt lottery since they are not transparent on revealing the winners due to privacy protection. They might cheating too the result but this result is also possible. It's up to us on how we will trust the PCSO credibility or not.

molsewid

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Quote from: xSkylarx on October 01, 2022, 06:59:14 PM

Yesterday, many people were surprised on the result of our lottery. The number that came out were are all divisible by nine. There are many speculations now that the lottery is rigged and the result was already fixed. It's just hard to believe that since they always do live draw to show transparency about the result. What do you think? Is this really possible in lottery?

Image Source:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid0xogg6pv17aDJe94MQCYAaNiUdDpxnQFczyrY4Gaaf91BMhmarBtnx8p8iXWMZd4sl&id=100069066345193 (I just cropped the image to focus on the 6/55 draw)

Honestly, I've been shock that in my entire life I had never encounter a 400+ winners for a certain mega jackpot, I can't say that it is statistically impossible there will be a possibility of course but it is quite unusual to get a huge number for that lottery. I am not a statistics person, I am not trained to analyze the possibilities of this but I always have a doubt, does this 400+ people are real? we will see that if they will go to the office and claim the money. I am sure many eyes are drawn to the winners. they will monitor if there's an unusual number of people going to the office.

madnessteat

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Quote from: Jemzx00 on October 02, 2022, 09:24:03 AM

Quote from: Darker45 on October 01, 2022, 08:40:52 PM

I can't say whether this lottery or at least this particular draw is rigged or not although there have already been many talks about it. But I guess the pattern of the winning numbers is simply a coincidence. If this is indeed rigged, those who chose the winning combination should have picked random numbers. Picking a winning combination such as this would only ignite suspicion. If players doubt, they might not play anymore. That means a loss in revenue.

Another surprising thing about this is that there are 433 winners of the jackpot. Normally, there's only 1 or 2 of them. Sometimes none at all.

The amount of winners for this combination is almost statistical impossible. There have been a lot of probability computation that has been shown throughout sa social media that proves how much unlikely this to happen. Also, the combination of numbers which shows that all numbers are divisible by 9 is too suspicious for all of this to be a coincidence.

There are also a lot of speculation that the PCSO or the lottery services has been cheating or manipulating the winning combination and up until now there is no to little effect on them.

It is very difficult to prove that this lottery was rigged, because there is a probability of such an event and it is easy to calculate. I would begin to doubt the fairness of the lottery if such a situation were repeated several times, but a single combination of multiples of a number is quite possible. After all, it is just a random set of circumstances, which the human brain tries to interpret as something unbelievable.

Boristhecat

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Quote from: nullama on October 01, 2022, 09:14:33 PM

Of course it's statistically possible. It has the same probability as any other 6 numbers.

Even if you see the result "1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6", that would still be fine. It has the same chances as any other random result.

The thing is that in some people's mind they put together all the "nice" results like the one you posted and the one I shared against any "random" result, like "23, 11, 46, 1, 5, 31", but they all have the same probability to appear.

I completely agree with you, and it's quite funny that people, finding some patterns in the sequence of numbers, think that "beautiful" sequences are somewhat different from "ugly" sequences. From the point of view of mathematics, any sequence of numbers is equally probable.
And by the way, if you look deeply for some pattern, then you can probably find something for any lottery result - some numbers will be a multiple of 3, some 2, sometime there will be a sequence of only prime numbers, sometime even/odd, etc. You can always find something "unique".

wheelz1200

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Quote from: xSkylarx on October 01, 2022, 06:59:14 PM

Yesterday, many people were surprised on the result of our lottery. The number that came out were are all divisible by nine. There are many speculations now that the lottery is rigged and the result was already fixed. It's just hard to believe that since they always do live draw to show transparency about the result. What do you think? Is this really possible in lottery?

Image Source:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid0xogg6pv17aDJe94MQCYAaNiUdDpxnQFczyrY4Gaaf91BMhmarBtnx8p8iXWMZd4sl&id=100069066345193 (I just cropped the image to focus on the 6/55 draw)

Pure coincidence. There are zillions of lotteries around the world, that continually run. Given enough time there are many odd number groups that come out. This is just as hard to happen as hitting the lottery which people do so I see no reason to believe anything like this would insinuate cheating.

Jemzx00

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Quote from: Darker45 on October 01, 2022, 08:40:52 PM

I can't say whether this lottery or at least this particular draw is rigged or not although there have already been many talks about it. But I guess the pattern of the winning numbers is simply a coincidence. If this is indeed rigged, those who chose the winning combination should have picked random numbers. Picking a winning combination such as this would only ignite suspicion. If players doubt, they might not play anymore. That means a loss in revenue.

Another surprising thing about this is that there are 433 winners of the jackpot. Normally, there's only 1 or 2 of them. Sometimes none at all.

The amount of winners for this combination is almost statistical impossible. There have been a lot of probability computation that has been shown throughout sa social media that proves how much unlikely this to happen. Also, the combination of numbers which shows that all numbers are divisible by 9 is too suspicious for all of this to be a coincidence.

There are also a lot of speculation that the PCSO or the lottery services has been cheating or manipulating the winning combination and up until now there is no to little effect on them.

BobK71

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It is not unusual to be suspicious of the way people are being cheated at every level. And the image the OP is sharing here is spot on that it is divisible by 9. But here the matter of lottery selection should be kept in mind in which process lottery selection is being done. If all were not divisible by this 9 then there would be no doubt in anyone's mind. But I think it doesn't matter. Those are the lucky ones who got those numbers.

pawanjain

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Just because all the numbers in the lottery are divisible by 9 it doesn't mean that the lottery is rigged.
It might just be a mere coincidence. As you are saying they draw the lottery live then we can give them the edge in that case.
But yeah, if this happens on a frequent basis may be then we can raise this question on them.
You can take out all the previous draws and compare them to find a matching pattern.

o_e_l_e_o

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Quote from: Porfirii on October 02, 2022, 06:16:47 AM

That's it. It seems that many people has some kind of bias with this kind of flawed numeric intuitions ("if the red has come out ten times, there is a much greater chance that the black will come out next" and alike).

That's it exactly. It is easy to look back on events which have already happened and say "Look how unlikely this is! There is no way it could have been chance!", but doing so is a complete fallacy. Although any one combination of numbers has a ~1 in 29 million chance of appearing, it is certain that some combination of numbers will appear.

Here's another stark example. How likely do you think you are of experiencing an event with the odds of 1 in 115 thousand trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion? It would never happen, right? Not before the death of the universe would we ever see an event with such a vanishingly small probability of occurring. And yet, these are exactly the odds you overcome every single time you generate a new bitcoin address.

Porfirii

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Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on October 02, 2022, 04:29:38 AM

So there is a ~1 in 29 million chance of drawing these 6 numbers, same as there is a ~1 in 29 million chance of drawing any 6 numbers.

That's it. It seems that many people has some kind of bias with this kind of flawed numeric intuitions ("if the red has come out ten times, there is a much greater chance that the black will come out next" and alike).

The chances are still the same for the black and the red to come out next, and also to get those or any other different numbers in the lottery. There is no magic behind this.

AND chances are still the same, in the next round of lottery, to draw these same numbers, divisible by 9, or your favourite ones (a ~1 in 29 million). It would be funny, quite mind blowing, but equally possible. So any player has the same chances to win than to see the news that this lottery is definitely flawed because "it is almost impossible to be a coincidence".

aioc

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Quote from: virasisog on October 02, 2022, 04:43:41 AM

It's actually possible but lots of people are suspicious and there are rumors and hearsays that there's just one jackpot winner but the organization created 432 ghost tickets. I'm not sure if that's true because there's still no proof. However, it's the first time but it's really possible that different people would have the same rumbled numbers with the same number pattern. They're still lucky to share a huge amount of jackpot prizes.

Those people are ignorant and now they are resorting to hearsay and rumors, the manager has this to say about the number of tickets that won the jackpot, many are taking care of their numbers so there are many winners I'm one of those who take care of numbers when betting I don't do random numbers, this is the first time and there's always first time fo anything but definitely there will be more similar like this in the future we just don't know when this will come again.

noormcs5

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Quote from: virasisog on October 02, 2022, 04:43:41 AM

It's actually possible but lots of people are suspicious and there are rumors and hearsays that there's just one jackpot winner but the organization created 432 ghost tickets. I'm not sure if that's true because there's still no proof. However, it's the first time but it's really possible that different people would have the same rumbled numbers with the same number pattern. They're still lucky to share a huge amount of jackpot prizes.

I would say that they are lucky because people still believe in lotteries and willing to spend their money.

Gambling houses never share their method of driving results in lottery methods which makes lottery suspicious. Since people trust the sites and based on that they are willing to take participation in lotteries.

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Quote from: xSkylarx on October 01, 2022, 06:59:14 PM

Yesterday, many people were surprised on the result of our lottery. The number that came out were are all divisible by nine. There are many speculations now that the lottery is rigged and the result was already fixed. It's just hard to believe that since they always do live draw to show transparency about the result. What do you think? Is this really possible in lottery?

How come it was rigged if the result is just divisible by 9? Does all the orevious result has this kind of pattern? Sometimes people that purchasing tickets and never win always find a reason to justify there lose such as the game is rigged and other conspiracy. Lottery is being regulated strictly since this is the game handled by the government. Destroying there integrity for such rigging will just make there business destroyed while they are earning huge income per day by just operating regularly since most of the citizen of the country is playing in this lottery.

The result is statistically possible obviously. The odds is just low for that to occur.

Topic: Is this statiscally possible in a lottery? - page 4. (Read 633 times)