It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 4.

philipma1957

legendary

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'The right to privacy matters'

we were at 19.99 we dropped hard to 16.78 came back (17.59 then 19.15) and are now dropping

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/difficulty

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com

Latest Block:   659634 (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   91.0860% (403 / 442.44 expected, 39.44 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   17596801059571.43
Current Difficulty:   19157154724710.14
Next Difficulty:   between 17456592469145 and 18508353289552
Next Difficulty Change:   between -8.8769% and -3.3867%

Only explanations for this drop are retooling or government shut downs.

We have had really good prices so a drop makes no economic sense.

Fees are going up a bit

block............... fees
659636 0.4903
659635 0.8918
659634 0.6499
659633 1.1592
659632 1.2509
659631 0.8632
659630 0.5937

Still not as high as they were back in the big October drop

found this article

https://crypto.co/technology/power-supply-for-yunnan-china-bitcoin-miners-shut-off-by-authorities/

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 01, 2020, 10:24:28 PM

The diff never ceases to amaze me...

You're not the only one, I had to send a transaction and to get it confirmed fast, and when I looked at the fees I was like, wtf is wrong with that mempool, not to mention Viabtc managing to not mine a block for 10 hours on Monday.

@mikeywith, what I was just telling you, no drama happening anymore?

So, can somebody come with a plausible scenario why with the prices going up, people supposedly grabbing every piece of S9 they can find and plugging it in we're down right now at 89% pace compared to the normal? The site is pointing towards:

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com

Next Difficulty: between 17230786133317 and 18428884287538

Which is below the 17,596,801,059,571 of the last adjustment. Is this true then? Authorities shut off electricity to Bitcoin miners in China’s Yunnan province.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

The diff never ceases to amaze me. We are -11.7 % granted only three days in but really low.

327 blocks made vs 370 due. Down 43 blocks.

mikeywith

legendary

Activity: 2436

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be constructive or S.T.F.U

Quote from: HagssFIN on December 01, 2020, 06:44:46 AM

Hmm.. I wonder if it actually would at the moment make sense for me to take my low power -fw A841 to my summer cottage and use it as a heater during winter time.

Avalon 841 does 13.6th and consumes 1290w in power, assuming you pay 8 cents per kwh (which is the highest I can think of) so you pay a total of 2.4$ per day, as of now it makes 1.9$ per day, so IF

Difficulty goes up 50% it makes, it makes $1.28, bitcoin price goes to 40k, it makes $2.65, BTC at 50k it makes $3.3, BTC at $4, even if difficulty goes 100% up, you still make 2.7$ per day, so if 8 cents becomes profitable with about 100w/th gears, I assume many miners will be so happy.

favebook

sr. member

Activity: 604

Merit: 416

Quote from: Searing on November 30, 2020, 09:43:10 PM

Why is there no electric costs in that part of Serbia? Are the miners simply doing like China in the rainy season and swapping 1/2 coins a month for free electricity per the month off of hydro/dams or something? How tough is it to get Bitcoin/Crypto Miners into Serbia? Is there a VAT or Tariffs or both? Man, I'd love to get in on such action, but utterly clueless American and have heard bad stories about sending miners to far off places never to be heard from again to the 'supposed' far away data hall. I'd have to be married to your Sister or something...hmmm....ya got a Sister? (damn, I miss BTC/Crypto mining..all the little bright LCDs and whirly fan noises) sigh! Sad

(It's cold up here in the sports stadium in the bleaches watching you play...also 'splinters' in my ass..I miss my miner 'newbie' youth) Sad

brad

Without going much in politics, let's just say that part of Serbia is no man's land right now. Households are pulling power from electric company that is situated in other part of Serbia and they cannot enforce payments due to politics. And I am not sure why electric company is not cutting the power to that part but let's assume it's to not start a war.

I am not in that part nor will I ever think of going there. Free electricity is not worth for me THAT much.

Once politicians settle on something, electricity prices there will surely rise and probably even more than our usual tariff. This is just "temporary" situation which has been going on for 3 or more years now... Miners have started settling down there since 2018 and they are bringing in more and more gear by the day.

Yes, we do have to pay 20% VAT on importing any miner, and only companies can import 3 or more miners per time.

Individuals like me can only import 1-2 miners per order.

HagssFIN

legendary

Activity: 2506

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Electrical engineer. Mining since 2014.

Hmm.. I wonder if it actually would at the moment make sense for me to take my low power -fw A841 to my summer cottage and use it as a heater during winter time.

mikeywith

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Quote from: favebook on November 30, 2020, 05:40:13 PM

The demand for miners in Serbia is crazy right now.

Not just in Serbia, it's everywhere, A few months back S9i was going for 30-35$ in China, now it's $75, which is just about 1 month to ROI for the free-power guys, so it makes sense why S9 price doubled.

If we take 20k out and keep going up, T9 and even S7 will come back to the market, the difficulty will, of course, go up but it can't beat the speed of the price which means all those old gears will become profitable again.

Searing

copper member

Activity: 2898

Merit: 1465

Clueless!

Why is there no electric costs in that part of Serbia? Are the miners simply doing like China in the rainy season and swapping 1/2 coins a month for free electricity per the

the month off of hydro/dams or something? How tough is it to get Bitcoin/Crypto Miners into Serbia? Is there a VAT or Tariffs or both? Man, I'd love to get in on such action,

but utterly clueless American and have heard bad stories about sending miners to far off places never to be heard from again to the 'supposed' far away data hall. I'd have

to be married to your Sister or something...hmmm....ya got a Sister? (damn, I miss BTC/Crypto mining..all the little bright LCDs and whirly fan noises) sigh! Sad

(It's cold up here in the sports stadium in the bleaches watching you play...also 'splinters' in my ass..I miss my miner 'newbie' youth) Sad

brad

favebook

sr. member

Activity: 604

Merit: 416

~~I haven't seen any official info about Antracks for power usage and hashrate, however I just read this and I am not sure where they got these numbers but they MUST be wrong:~~

Quote from: https://hashingfarms.medium.com/mining-and-investment-summit-2020-4f219cd5eb53

The AntRack will house around a 1000 TH/s, in a modular, flexible and efficient design at 6000 to 7000 W

If S19j is doing 110TH at 3kW Antracks seem to be 5x more efficient than that, which is almost impossible. I do not remember a single generation of antminers that had such an improvement in efficiency. Just saw a post from mikeywith, hashingfarms seem to be missing one zero in their power usage. Rack Style Mining (AntRack).

The demand for miners in Serbia is crazy right now. Mostly due to bullish run we've had for path few months. New miners are hard to come by here. There is also a part of our country (Kosovo) where they do not have to pay electricity bills, so all old miners are being sent there. I'd say there's at least 600PH there running on free electricity.
That is almost 0.5% of total bitcoin hashrate. I am not 100% sure about the number (600PH) but I do know that at least 30 000 of S9 miners are running there and I do know a few people that are running newer ones there as well.

mikeywith

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Quote from: ?? on ??

We maintained almost the same pace for days which is good news as far as miners are concerned at least given how high prices climbed.

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com

Current Pace:   108.5939% (1941 / 1787.39 expected, 153.61 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   17596801059571.43
Next Difficulty:   between 19107494074211 and 19109767814545
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.5850% and +8.5980%
Previous Retarget:   November 16, 2020 at 7:01 PM (+4.8191%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 4:25 PM (in 0d 11h 30m 38s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 4:28 PM (in 0d 11h 32m 51s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 21h 24m 34s and 12d 21h 26m 47s

So we sure are going back to the 19T region of difficulty in less than 20 hours, let's hope the next jump will be as reasonable so that we can stay profitable until the new year, January and February will have massive difficulty pumps, so buying gears now isn't something I would want to do.

So we had 8.8% spike in difficulty, bitcoin price is back to 18.5k levels, what is next except for up?

Next year is going to be interested, the Antracks should be ready by then, a lot of S19/S19pro and T19 will hit the market around Jan and Feb, the new S19j and S19j pro will start shipping around June/July, assuming BTC price doesn't tank, we can effortlessly hit a 50% difficulty increment in 2021.

Will leave the current status here to see how we do in the next few days.

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   659374 (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   80.6470% (143 / 177.32 expected, 34.32 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   17596801059571.43
Current Difficulty:   19157154724710.14
Next Difficulty:   between 15465367613664 and 18551198435250
Next Difficulty Change:   between -19.2711% and -3.1631%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 3:39 PM (+8.8673%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 14, 2020 at 2:41 AM (in 13d 5h 28m 49s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 17, 2020 at 12:17 AM (in 16d 3h 4m 40s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 1m 58s and 17d 8h 37m 50s

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

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'The right to privacy matters'

Well the price drop is 19200 to 16800 over 15%

and the diff is moving up about 8.3%

there goes my nice profits. Sad

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com

Latest Block:   658761 (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   108.3518% (1546 / 1426.83 expected, 119.17 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   16787779609932.66
Current Difficulty:   17596801059571.43
Next Difficulty:   between 18981124856720 and 19067339126348
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.8669% and +8.3568%
Previous Retarget:   November 16, 2020 at 12:01 PM (+4.8191%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 10:07 AM (in 3d 0h 17m 43s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 11:31 AM (in 3d 1h 42m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 22h 6m 3s and 12d 23h 30m 31s

I wonder if this will shut down some more gear if we drop to 14.5k?

mikeywith

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 18, 2020, 08:34:33 AM

So if a 10 cent place is right on the border of break even with 55 watt a th gear.

People will simply turn gear on.

Indeed, and my reference for this has always been the S9 and the equivalent to it, those gears make the majority of the idle/standby hashrate, once they go online the impact is huge.

Right now S9j at the default settings of 14.5th and 1350w makes about 70 cents profit per day, with custom firmware it can get a bit more efficient and can easily make 80 cents a day, that is $24 a month + the benefit of the heat since it's wintertime in most places that matter for mining, so a long story short, there are no more difficulty drops as long as Bitcoin price is above 15k.

philipma1957

legendary

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'The right to privacy matters'

So we peaked at about 18500 last night.

A sell off to about 17200

and we are now at 18000 or so.

diff is surging up 14%.

If price holds or goes up diff will go up.

My garage is no longer a mining spot as my summer power is 17 cents and add 2 cents for extra cooling.

In the winter price is 14 cents and subtract 4 cents for heat benefit so 10 cent net.

I am test running 2 units aBout 90 th pulling 5k-watts

This comes to 3600 kwatts a month or 360 usd for power.

At .13 cents a th this gear makes 11.70 a day or 351 a month.

So if a 10 cent place is right on the border of break even with 55 watt a th gear.

People will simply turn gear on.

mikeywith

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So, we are back to 17.59T difficulty which was a 4.8% jump in difficulty from the last epoch, not much considering that we are above $17,000, man old gears became profitable again and are going to jump back in, also mining gears in china coming from the riversides to Xinjiang might make it in time, these two factors combined will easily trigger a large jump of at least 10-15% if they both remain active.

Interesting times ahead of us miners, we are making history.

philipma1957

legendary

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'The right to privacy matters'

was not sure so I left it.

as far as I am concerned it can stay.

mikeywith

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Fees are affected by hashrate/difficulty, although the demand for the transaction has a greater impact on the fees but still.

With that being said, I think what phill is trying to say is that the transaction fee is affected by difficulty and not the opposite, and based on that difficulty doesn't care about fees, and so it doesn't perfectly fit in this topic.

You both make sense, perhaps if we look at it from a different perspective we can actually keep it here. Less fees = less mining profitably = less hashrate = lower difficulty! , but since this is phill's topic, of course, he would do whatever he sees best.

favebook

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 15, 2020, 11:50:10 AM

not sure this should be here. may need to be moved to another section. but it is good info.

It is affected by difficulty and hashrate directly. If we stay on same global hashrate with small difficulty increase, it will mean that we will be getting less blocks per day therefore higher fees. If hashrate drops a bit after diff increase, that will be even more noticeable in avg fees.

mikeywith

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The cryptodiff website is becoming so annoying and hard to browse with all those ads they have on it now, anyway, good for him to start profiting now, it has been a great difficulty analysis tool.

We are only hours away from the adjustment, 4.30% up is not something anyone should complain about given that we had a 16% drop in the previous epoch, now all eyes are on Xinjiang, if the lockdown is over then the next epoch will also be +% but this time it will be a bigger jump, if not then we should stay within the same range until December.

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com

Next Difficulty:   between 17516969503046 and 17520710487495
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.3436% and +4.3659%
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 8:29 PM (in 0d 22h 35m 51s)

philipma1957

legendary

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: favebook on November 15, 2020, 10:36:46 AM

These times are perfect for consolidating small inputs.

Last weekend was even better but this one works too. There has been a lot of blocks that haven't filled.

https://mempool.space/tx/f2e31db3239d2f0d355b3231945d7661eefabc2b7fc142be1a1238f8926bde68

1.0 sat/vB, circa 15$ usd fee for 99BTC consolidation.

not sure this should be here. may need to be moved to another section. but it is good info.

favebook

sr. member

Activity: 604

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These times are perfect for consolidating small inputs.

Last weekend was even better but this one works too. There has been a lot of blocks that haven't filled.

https://mempool.space/tx/f2e31db3239d2f0d355b3231945d7661eefabc2b7fc142be1a1238f8926bde68

1.0 sat/vB, circa 15$ usd fee for 99BTC consolidation.

Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 4. (Read 14827 times)