Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 2. (Read 14615 times)

12.3% isn't realistic by any means, I doubt these numbers can be sustainable for the remaining 8-9 days of this epoch, the average hashrate for the past epoch was 133, so 12% of that is 16EH, how is it possible that a whooping 16EH came online now and not 10 days ago? but well, btc mining is crazy so you may never know!

With that being said, I still believe that we won't go past 5% by much, maybe 6-7% in the worst-case scenario, but not 12% or more, the reason why I tend to make my predictions a bit more flexible is that fact that BTC dominance is going higher and thus hashrate from other coins is migrating to bitcoin right now, so all the new hashrate we see now isn't exactly fresh hashrate, a good portion of it was already there, and when those other Sha256 coins start picking up, that hashrate will go back.

Andddddd the gear is waking up. +12%

best case for the diff is a +15%. Say on Jan 9th.

Then a hard price crash to 17k.

All the effort to fire up that gear will be wasted.  Prices of gear drop.

Or next best case is BTC says fuck this shit and passes 40 k by my birthday on Jan 27.

Diff just rocks upward but slower than the price rises.

The location of those "sleeping" mining gears is important, old gears in Europe and countries with 10 cents per kWh or higher are still not profitable "yet", but I tend to believe that there aren't much and could be ignored.

As far as the overall difficulty, don't worry, we will get there, I believe this epoch will be +(maybe 3-5%), and then things will get worse the further we move from here, many new generation gears are coming online next month, but the production is kind of slow, so I doubt we will see those 15-20% increments, they should be small and steady.


Next halving is just a couple of years ahead, no rush.

You've mentioned this previously and I thought this was a passing thing due at that time do the surge in demand for electronics during the first total lockdown in Europe and US and seeing how once unavailable laptops have come back to the shelves (you have no idea what crap you could barely afford around here with 1k$ during that times) that the worse was over. Well, seems like I was mistaken, for the uncountable n time.
Global chip shortage threatens production of laptops, smartphones and more
So Huawei stockpiling chips for their production but with market share eroding others are stepping in demanding more also, normal growth in demand for other industries, a series of accidents, and the perfect storm has been created in which small players like Bitmain will simply be tossed aside.

I refrained yesterday from saying anything about the projected difficulty since it was just the start and the numbers were clearly inaccurate (1.5%-11%) but it seems like there will be no explosive growth as we all imagined, already down to 0.7-4.2. Now, if we don't see any growth beyond the 1% that can be triggered by luck or simple power failures even during this epoch I think we're at a point when we can safely say that this is the maximum hashrate you can make with the existing gear, there is no gear left in this world unplugged that can change anything in a significant percentage.

Also, something funny, I wonder why I didn't check this earlier, with the price increase, I can turn a profit right now with an S17 !!!! Hurray!!! Don't ask about the ROI time cause it's by next halving 


One small thing, you would need that money if everyone would sell now their coins and new investors would buy, if nobody sells but one satoshi you could do it with a few hundred $. Of course, that's the extreme scenario but just Satoshi's coins are cutting close to $100billion out of that sum.

My theory behind that maximum hashrate increment being 2x at most is that the fact that it gets harder to double the hashrate the larger it gets, if the whole network has 10 asic miners you just need 10 more miners to double it, if it has a million miners you will need a million miner.

The current hash rate is 130EH, every 1EH is about 10,000 of the 19 series (we say 100th is the average of T19,S19 and S19 pro) so to get 130EH we need 130*10,000 = 1,300,000 S19 series mining gear, now we will just assume that all the mining manufacturers will join forces to make that 1.3M gears, is that even remotely possible? I highly doubt it, current order list from Bitmain isn't even at 100k S19 miners and they are sold out until August, the best deal Riot managed to get is 1000 miners monthly, and Riot is one of the largest clients bitmain has, so even if Bitmain was to facilitate the same amount of order for 9 other clients, we assume their maximum capacity is 10,000 S19 miner per month, way too much for Bitmain to make over a million mining gear.

Keep in mind that it isn't only Bitmain's limitations, it's also semiconductors shortage that can't keep up with this demand, you have an increasing demand from other components that need those semiconductors which is outside of the mining world, and semiconductor makers like Samsung and TSMC won't be willing to lose their regular clients knowing very well that this mining thing is just a temporary business before the next halving or two make it hardly profitable.

With that being said, mining gears manufacturer could turn back to 12 or 16nm chips since those will be profitable too, so that will help the hashrate increase, but with all of these factors combined, it's very difficult to make 130EH worth of mining gears in 12 months.

Again, all of this is based on the assumption that Bitcoin's price keeps going up non-stop, and that is a theory that is subject to failure.

Well we could see some serious earnings  for miners if your numbers are correct.


The top ten companies have more than enough to lose 15% each and make btc gain bigly

1)  2.244t
2)  1.684t
3)  1.592t
4)  1.174t
5)  0.763t
6)  0.669t
7)  0.627t
8 ) 0.600t
9)  0.550t
10) 0.531t
total of 10.43t 15% is  1.5645 trillion

11) BTC .464t

btc would be 2.0285 trillion

apple if it lost 15% would be 1.9074

so BTC could possibly be Number one and over 2 trillion in a year

if Mikey is correct that diff goes 2x. us miners will have an outstanding 2021 year.

For bitcoin to be worth a 100k it just needs an extra 1.5 trillion of investment, that is about 20% of the market cap of gold, in other words, it's easily doable, but for difficulty to go 4x the world needs to find a brand new way of making asic chips, it doesn't seem like mining manufacturers can make 100EH worth of gear in a single year, let alone 300EH, I believe that in 2021 we will have a maximum of 260EH which is double the current hashrate, regardless of how high the price goes.

I have not been into bitcoin for very long but watching the difficulty this past week it sure seemed like the large miners want to keep the difficulty where it is... hash rate of the network dropped as we got closer to the difficulty switch yesterday.

Hard to say what is happening overall. I figured network hash rate would be increase to match price increases but it seems like that is not happening. There are a few trends: New gears are slow to ship (Bitmain internal power struggles?). Last gen gears have a high failure rate. Read somewhere China is in the dry season so cheap hydro power might be unavailable. Also, rumors Chinese gov't interfering in some mining operations there to interrupt fraud and money laundering. Mining hash rates dropping off towards the difficulty adjustment yesterday. Maybe the system is stabilizing and trying to find a new profitable normal? Works for me!

I have two take aways here.

1) Norway 🇳🇴 purchased 2 dollars in Btc for all of its 5 million nations. Total of 10 million now worth 13.5 million. If companies are going to grab coins what happens if countries start grabbing coins.

2) Mining ⛏ will become large scale industrial. A single antbox with 15 ph may be minimum buy in.

These will result in very high difficulty. price of 100k means diff can be 4x what it is now.

I'm thinking that there 'may-be' a lot of Institutional Investment Trusts on the 'sidelines', like GrayScale now...looking for that long term 'inflation hedge' from all the money printing of the pandemic and recession etc. Thus we 'could' (man this is hard, I'm afraid I'm gonna jinx it) be in a position on 'every' frigging 10%/20% or whatever correction that is when the 'rest' of these guys 'pile into' the FOMO of price and BTC! Indeed when the Elephants dance the mice get off the dance floor kind of FOMO surge in adoption and price by such traditional Investment Trusts as a 'hedge' like GrayScale! Again, bonds won't beat inflation with all the money printing and potential stock market correction and future inflation..so the choices are 'property' er...hard to dump out of that quickly with a recession... the tail end of such you may be ok. but definitely long term HODL...gold...meh! that seems silly and likely only to go sideways in price at best anyway, likely 'barely' beating inflation over whatever years you are holding such. Also, bonds just can't pay any interest if banks are not allowed to fail and printing of $$$. I mean at worst they used to at least payout at the annual inflation rate or a bit more. That boat may have sailed.

So whatcha gonna do? Buy/HODL/try to get on board with your Investment Trust and start fighting for BTC in a tug of war from GrayScale and others may be the plan? Every frigging dip from now till 2022 you FOMO the price higher and higher. (I'm giving myself a small BTC woody with my fantasy here). An 'adoption' of BTC/Crypto in such a manner as to again be an 'upward' crash of price and FOMO for a year rather than the reverse? for the above reasons...and hell, things stock market-wise and inflation wise are not even really bad as of yet. So hell, maybe $100K BTC is frigging likely in the next year. I'm pretty befuddled on all this. But again, what if 'everyone' of a GrayScale like Investment Traditional Trust looks to BTC/Crypto..sh*t....things could get really really wild in 2021!

But for inflation hedging vs bonds, gold, and property in an economic recession or downturn or hell just a regular series of corrections till the country is back on track. I really can see a lot more of GrayScale like Traditional Investment long term funds piling into BTC/Crypto and 'massive' scooping of coins, if anything I say above is the 'least bit' likely. Now I have to 'sit down' I got all 'excited'

knock wood

Brad

Tiny drop of -0.3%

coins were over 27k.

let the good times roll

I am thinking big jump and a crash in price.

Hope I look like a stupid moron with those picks.

I'd say the majority of miners who matter don't really care about any of that, so New Year or not, they couldn't be bothered, however, I do agree that we are likely going have another good epoch simply because not much gears are getting delivered in the coming a few days.


They start shipping in January, all the way to July, the 8000 mining gear order from Riot will be done in April, with 2k miners every month.


Couldn't agree more  .

With that being said, it's probably the last few weeks of happy mining, the past couple of weeks have been so kind to us miners, I'd guess nobody expected the profitability in fiat would be this much.

That is funny. It looks like 2021 will see a huge diff jump.

MY guess is someone is building a 100 megawatt solar farm combined with wind.

So deployment may take until May-June-July

lets pretend it is a correct spec.

if it does a usable 50 megawatts 24/7/365 that would be

3.3kwatts x 15 =      50 kwatts
3.3kwatts x 150 =    500kwatts
3.3kwatts x 1500 =  5megawatts
3.3kwatts x 15000 = 50 megawatts

so 15,000 s19 pros = 1650000 th or 1650ph or 1.65eh

if you got a good deal on the gear 2000 x 15000 = 30,000,000 million
if you got a bad deal on the gear 3000 x 15000 = 45 million.

the power plant I describe would be 150 million to build

so under 200 million with maintenance 200 million gets you 20+ years of power and the gear.

So I am thinking this is getting done in multiple places. It just takes time to happen.

You've got a nice Christmas present (the other miners too), and probably a bonus next week . Since the last adjustment down 2.5% the price went up by nearly 5k, and looking at the difficulty it's going to be almost for certain negative, it's hovering around -0.9%. Considering Christmas and New Years' Eve it's highly unlikely that some mining farm will suddenly bring to life a batch of 10k miners in the next epoch, so, another 14 days of happy mining?!?

I've been checking the pool stats to see if anything is changing there and to my surprise on the 7d vs 1/3 month period antpool is actually losing shares, so does poolin, so bitmain isn't doing anything even with these prices? Not shipping, not mining for themselves, are they really unable to get chips or whatever is stopping them? Pretty weird since I'm reading in the news everybody is buying gear:

Riot Purchases Additional 15,000 Mining Machines From Bitmain
Core Scientific Buys Over 58,000 Bitmain S19 Antminers

So, where the * is that gear? I'm pretty sure a lot of people would love to hear it's on the bottom of the ocean

---

Well we cracked 25k on Christmas Day (eastern standard time)

and we are - diff. of -.05 %


it is actually getting a little bit too good to be true.
But WTF let us enjoy it.

Yes you are right, I forgot to add the link, I also changed some of the settings to get a better view/representation, changed from linear to log, and limited the duration to only 3 years, the default chart is a mess.


My guess is that the average is a bit more than that for now, I would take T17 as the average market gear for 2020, which puts us somewhere around 55 watts, what makes you think 45 watts is the average network efficiency?

Phil - any further word on that 1066 PSU? One of the Kanopool users on Discord just received 3 PSU's for his through Jason from Canaan. He had one die a while ago and ordered 2 extra as spares along with the 1 provided under warrenty.

the 1/2ing is factored in jan 2020 to march 2020 bigger blocks so .15  now bigger price less coin so .14

A block in feb 2020 was 12.5 at 10k
a block in dec 2020 is 6.25 at 23k

diff is higher now.  we are very equal to  10k in feb 2020

we are still less then July 2019 at 13k.

the chart does not use network's watt per th efficiency I estimate

2019 July 80  watts a th
2020 Feb 55   watts a th
2020 Dec 42? watts a th

the charts do not factor in power. I played with 0 ,2 ,4 ,6, 8 cents

it is very hard to be exact but we certainly have not reached

my Dec 2020 28-30k =  July 2019 13k estimate which could be low.

that chart leaves out  a lot of factors and comes up with 40-50k now = 13k July 2019

it is too high.  Most likely my 28-30k is too low.

I leaned towards 42-45 watts and 6 cent power. on average for the network.

to be safe lowest range possible is 25k highest range is 45k
either way

we could not hold the price of 13k in July 2019
we could not hold the price of 19.9k in Dec 2017

btw. diff was tiny  in 2017 around 8x lower than now.

and blocks were 12.5. so by diff 8 x 19.9= 159.2k /2 = 79.6k  a very rough idea of what we need to be to be at 2017.

the network then was likely 130watts a th it is now likely 42-45 watts a th.

for  a 0 ,1, 2 power guy so what
for a 3,4,5 cent guy it starts to matter
for a 6,7,8 cent guy it really matters.

the charts leave out efficiency and power cost

they use diff, price, block size

if you are a free power guy they are all you need.

If you pay for power you need to try to use your efficiency and your power per kwatts.

diff is now -4%+
coins are 23000+

so Merry Christmas!

Happy Hanukkah!

or any other religion or holiday.

I assume you got this from
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-mining_profitability.html
If it's true then I am wondering if it's not something wrong with the graph. Nope, something is wrong with my memory.!

Looking at the January-March period, the hashrate was around 100-120 Exa, the price was ~10k range, profitability ~0.15
Now we have 130-140 Exa, price over 20k, profitability ~ ~0.14.
Am I missing something as it doesn't make sense at first glance?!

LE:
Thanks, philipma1957
Wow, how time flies, I forgot about the halving already, and how much I've been discussing it myself. Facepalm!!!
Yeah, makes total sense now.

I estimate gear efficient in july 2019 at 80 watts. for whole network

I estimate gear at 45 watts now.

I used 4-6 cent power.

your estimate is perfectly accurate for no cost power.

my estimate differs with ballbark figures

for network efficiency.

and ball park numbers for power.