Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 3. (Read 14827 times)

Just to add more information to this since I believe many people who are not really into the difficulty thing don't understand what the means, below is the "profitability" chart:



https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-mining_profitability.html

The idea is very simple, Profitblity = USD income per TH of hashrate, the worst it has ever been was on 18/10/2020 (exactly 2 months ago), a TH would gain only 0.063$, we are now kind of doing a lot better at 0.14$.

July 2019 it was about 0.5$ per TH, that will be 70k and not 30k, can you double-check the maths on your side?

21.3k is getting close to first tipping point

which is 28-30k = 2019 july mining profits

next one would be 70-80k = 2017 december mining profits.

One more thing to keep in mind is that many old gears are "stuck" in the "wrong" place, think of the guy who owns old gears such as 80w/th efficient and worse, that guy had to turn off his mining gears during the 2018 crash, that guy is located in Europe or in Newzealand where the power rate is 8-10 cents per kwh, selling his old gears means he has to ship them overseas, the price of shipping to where power is low enough to accept those gears is out of the question, so what does he do? turn them off and leave them be.

I would guess that there is at least 5-10EH of those guys, and they will eventually come back online as the price moves higher.

Another thing is dead gears that can be fixed for really cheap like the S9s, I personally have a lot of broken gears that I just don't want to fix now because it isn't worth it, but when and if bitcoin price is at say 50k I will take "fixing mining" as my primary daily job and fix every hash board I have.

The good news is those gears are small and thousands of them need to come online before they start affecting the difficulty badly, what worries me is the Jan-March 5nm gears that are going to be shipped, those gears are 100th on average, but until then, let's enjoy.

Yeah
70 - 46  = 23th
70 - 39  = 21th
50 - 0    = 50th
50 - 0    = 50th
30 - 17  = 13th
30 - 27  = 3th

I am short 160th. that is $23.20 a day.

I'm genuinely laughing right now  

Price on July 15 ~  9241 difficulty 17,345,948,872,516. Price right now  ~ 20700 difficulty 18,670,168,558,399.

Although the price more than doubled, mikeywith was off with his top difficulty prediction by only 7%, on the other hand, I'm off by 208%. Adding insult to injury we're looking at another negative adjustment even as we speak, although it's just 8 blocks behind and only two days have passed.

So, bottom line, right now I can't think of any other explanation other than the lack of actual gear, probably there is simply no mining gear available to keep the hashrate going up and at the same time some is not mining because it's either locked in warehouses that have stopped receiving cheap energy (the ones in Yunnan we discussed earlier) and they are to selling their gear or it hasn't reached the new customers. Probably very good news for miners right now, they can get some serious rewards with little to fear that the difficulty with suddenly spike up, no matter how many want to get into mining, they simply can't. Merry Christmas, isn't it?

LE: And thank you guys for sharing your experience about the mining gear failure rates, next time I'll start babbling around I will take two moments and take that into consideration also  

Woke up late looked at 20400 at Coinbase and prompts sold

$250 worth of coin

diff is good


How high do we go price wise

well:

28-30k matches July 2019 price of 13k  for most mining farms
70-85k matches Dec 2017 price of 19.6k for most mining farms

Better to go sideways from now until my Jan 27th birthday I think diff will finally go upwards past 20.0 if we stay at 20-21 usd price for next 42 days.

Then maybe we go upwards in price beyond 30k.

@Phil
We're now pushing past the 20k ! 

I have a working model 1 s-9 2 of 3 boards still mine I got it back in 2016 before the 1/2 ing.

I have a working Avalon 721 I got it back in feb 2016

Both were under clocked and never pushed hard or hot.

All 17 s17pros still work 1 psu needed replacement
17 x 53 = 901 th does 930 th as some work on turbo

my what's miner gear is meh.

20s has bad chips and only does 39th using a lot of power and it burns out psu's
m10 has 2 boards works okay on normal
m10 has 3 boards works okay on low
20s was great it got wet in a rainstorm now has 2 boards still great. the rainstorm killed multiple pieces of gear.
21s was doing only 2 boards at 29th it died in the rain storm.

so
2x 20s from may of 2019 1 was good 1 was meh and would kill psu's
1x 21s from august 2019 was 29th not 50th
2 m10s from dec 2018 five of six boards still work  doing 40th vs 60th

so if all was working they would be doing 250th they are doing 105th

my Avalon
2x 50th 1066 on works 1 has dead psu Avalon never got one for me blokforge never got on for me
3x 30th 1041. one was doa but 2 work fine not sure how the doa died I will blame me or the us post office not Avalon

so I will say 160th is now 110th

2 t17e
1 t17+
3 t17 all good

3 s15 all good needed 1 replacement psu
1 t15 all good

s9's and l3's have been a mix and match for so long I don't remember how to rate them in terms of how they last.

---

merged some posts

this was Dec 13

We will be negative this jump

price is 19350+ at Coinbase

---

This is Dec 14

Up date we dropped -2.541/b]% to 18.6701t

We are on pace to drop again

Also coins are at 19,200 these numbers are not as good as July 2019 from the mining profit viewpoint.


It is early but a -2% drop and pushing past 20k   would be a very nice ending for the shit year of 2020

That is a tough question to answer, and there isn't really a confirmed answer, for the 17 series I can speak with a high level of confidence that the failure rate is 30% easily, this isn't based only on my own experience but it's the opinion of large miners in China who reported these results, even Jihan Wu admitted how terrible the quality on those gears was and he blamed Micree for that, I made a whole post regarding that subject look it around.

For obvious reasons, many of those 17 series have been fixed, so we can't say 30% of them are out of the game, other gears like the S9 can easily last for 2 years before requiring major maintenance, the S9e and S9k are terrible gears and I would guess that a large % of them are now paperweight because it costs a lot to fix them compared to their actual value.

There are many factors involved, but if I have to give you a wild guess, I would say that the mining community loses anywhere between 10-15% of the total hashrate every year (compared to the hashrate of the preceding year), which includes gears dying, warehouses catching fire, miners require special PSU that is not easy to source, overclocking aka overcooking, confiscation, floods, and etc.

Indeed, I was referring to political stuff which I do not want to discuss.

Kosovo might be related to diff but as I noted in my previous posts here, I doubt it has more than 0.5% of total BTC hashrate. As people in Serbia are generally not in top of the top when it comes to the wealth. Wealthiest persons here might not be close to someone in high class in other countries. Therefore I doubt that much money is poured into ASICs as it is a "new technology" after all and people here are skeptical more than anywhere else. Bitcoin was pyramid scheme in eyes of many when I tried to explain it to people back in 2015. Nowadays, it's a bit better but still, ASICs are like alien technology to many here.


Well, from my 5 year experience with them. They are either dying in few months and lasting up to a year or two OR they do not even break. I still know a guy who bought an S9 from me back in 2016/2017 and it still works perfectly (of course, on Kosovo). Now, I know he hasn't overclocked it rather, he downclocked it a bit during the red times (BTC ~ $4k). But after so many years of working perfectly, I'd argue that PSU will stop being fully operational much before hashboards.


I do not like them either, but still, I'd rather see diff drop before next bull run even if that means that we have to go through some red candles.

I think favebook was referring to the second part of my post, the one about who paid who and who gets what, and yeah, as a fellow east European, I can say that we better keep that subject away, scars from the war and stuff that comes with it have not been erased and won't be soon. There a lot of religion, race, nationality stuff there, let's keep that in the P&S.

But back to the speculation about the difficulty, I've been asking my self a lot of times something about the old gear that is supposed to come online if it gets profitable again, I've dug around a bit, including your topic about the s9k and the one about the failure rate of the s17 and I'm wondering this old gear, how much of it is it still capable of mining? We know what hashrate we had at the launch of a new generation like the s17 or the s19, we could approximate thus how much each new wave has brought in, but what is the decay rate in this?

I've tried searching around but the keywords are too simple, the results are nowhere what I was looking for, so can anyone come with a number, even if not backed by personal experience? What amount of the current hash rate will burn in the next 12 months due to failures? I mean, we always hear this, old miners being plugging in, ok, this might work once, but if we have a new price rise in 4 or 8 years from now on, the s9 will be theoretically profitable again, will there be more than 1000 pieces capable of mining in the whole world?


Unless you're in China or Japan, where a red candle is good  

Unlike MZ4 I have no interest in mining in Kosovo, but I do think it's right on topic, if mining is free there, then there must be a ton of mining gears adding up to total hasharte, which has everything to do with that we are discussing, when the rainy season is over in certain parts of China or when the electricity rate goes up in some places, the difficulty is effected big time, so if the Kosovo region issue is settled and miners can no longer use the electricity for free, they will have to shut down which means a difficulty drop incoming, so I would personally love to keep the Kosovo thing updated in this thread from time to time.


Red adjustments are great when they show up on the difficulty, not so great when they show on the price chart.

As noted by stompix, I do not really know why would you even be interested in a place like that. I might have presented it like a good place for mining (which I doubt as I reread my posts), but believe me, it is NOT. I'd rather go to hell than to go there tbh. No profit is worth losing your head over for. Remember this:



I am not up to date with what is going on with that part of our country and who owes whom what. So I can neither confirm nor deny that any money changed hands. I just know that there is a huge influx of people contacting me to buy insane number of miners asap.

But as this is diff thread, there is no point continuing this conversation here. We seem to be stagnating a bit, around -2% adjustment is expected this Sunday. I like to see red adjustments .

@stompix , i skimmed through it real quick.


Bullshit, first of all most miners are on PPS, so a block is submitted or not isn't something they really care about, secondly and most importantly the majority of the nodes that matter is owned by Chinese pools, having your node in the U.S is nothing special, plus it is not like all these pools don't have servers in the U.S anyway.


I am not a north American miner, but what issues would one have with a Chinese pool that would urge him to migrate to an American mining pool?

The most important thing would be their fees, the rest is really just noise.

With that being said, I am happy to see non-Chinese mining pools joining the game, it is good for Bitcoin in general, after all, they can't be worse than the Antpool.

From that PR release:


core scientific.. isnt that where ohgodagirl aka the ethlargement pill..  kristy whatshername..  yes


eeeeeeewwww     but maybe shes not there now? i didnt see her on the about us -> team page: https://www.corescientific.com/team

but thats the same company

stay away is my take - everything she touched seemed to turn to a steaming stinky nasty pile of.. stuff.. after the ethlargemen pill thing from what i remember (admittedly i have not kept up).

He already mentioned it's Kosovo, and since you're a few hundred miles away you should know better than trying to build a business there, if there are two zones in Europe I would avoid at all costs those are Kosovo and Tiraspol, no point investing in a barrel that is already on fire. Besides, to answer two weeks later the who's paying the bill question a bit, we (the EU) were supposed to fund that, one thing I know is we paid for it, if the Serbs have received any, that's a different story.

Back to the difficulty I see were slowly back on track, if we take into account the start of a period which was a huge drop that is getting erased bit by bit I think there are high chances we end this one with close to zero.

Meanwhile, Titan Mining is paying for a lot of PR Releases, claiming to be "first enterprise-grade Bitcoin mining pool in North America", I would have ignored it if it weren't for one name, Jeff Garzik. Any takers?

Could you please give me more information about this place of Serbia? Thank you in advance.

Here is an interesting read https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/84781/bulk-preorders-bitcoin-miners-spring-2021

This is the most important part:


My guess is that both TSMC and Samsung don't see mining as a sustainable long-term business, so it would make sense that these silicon providers will favor supplying other businesses, Bitmain vs Apple Nvidia or AMD is a clear lost-competition, and then we have Intel who has now turned to TSMC.

Here is another interesting article https://www.supercryptonews.com/bitmain-introduces-smaller-5nm-chip-with-new-mining-rig/

In short: Mining manufacturers can't get their hands on enough chips - Great news to all miners who already have mining gears bought at decent prices, the difficulty should stay within the 20T-25T range up until mid-2021 unless bitcoin price goes past 40-50k whereby the average joe can fire up his S7 and S5 then we MAY go to 30-35T, and keep in mind that difficulty of 25T with Bitcoin price at 18-20k is much better than how things were post halving, so the majority of miners should be mining happily for months to come.

So, if that is true then maybe this one, picked from a topic in discussions: China is cracking down again on bitcoin mining, might be also true? I translated it with google translate after extracting it via OCR as the author just threw it in a topic and was gone after that, so I assumed it wasn't real and was just some random stuff people create to troll on Twitter and Reddit. But since you have some info about a region, then, who knows?


And the golden answer would be, we don't really have a clue.

If gear wasn't picked up at 30$ per miner but prices have doubled it means somebody is buying, probably not enough gear, probably not yet with the buyer, maybe some miners in China cling to it in the hope they will get better tariffs again but I seriously doubt the real answer will be made just out of two or three situations. If there was gear available at 135exa during September it makes little sense for all that to not mine now, unless people that hold it can't mine right now and on top of that, no delivery since September? Bitmain unable to produce gear even for its own farms at the current revenue they are looking at?  As I said, I assume it was some sort of perfect storm where all the planets aligned at the most unexpected moment ever.

It is true, I initially thought these were fake news and clickbaits, but I confirmed from a Chinese miner, who happen to also send me this:



I sadly don't understand Mandarin, but he said almost ALL miners in Yunnan have been shut-down, now since Yunnan has a bit above 5% of China hashrate, that's at least 4% of the world total hashrate, the current pace is 94.6% so this could be it, however, this isn't the question, the question is, why aren't miners coming back online?

There are many theories I shall say, one that makes a lot of sense is that most miners are already online, the majority of the recent hashrate came from the old gears coming online, there were not many 19 series gears shipped, the world is facing chips shortage, chips price is at sky high and hard to get, there isn't any considerable amount of gears that are shut-down and waiting to come back online, nothing will happen until next year when S19s start to deliver, but even then, the difficulty might really not spike as much as we all think.

There are many reasons why I am not longer a perma bull in regards to difficulty, I think 2021 will be a great year for miners.