Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 197. (Read 435362 times)

Some calculations: http://organofcorti.blogspot.nl/2013/07/142-some-notes-about-just-dicecom.html

hypothetically, if Investor A gives dooglus 1 btc, and then claims 100M btc in 'storage' they are increasing their variance and their percentage of the house to roughly 100% assuming current invested amount.

if they have ~100% of the bankroll, and JD can only claim 1 btc from them in the likely case that a gambler wins, then the maximum gambler profit ~ 1 btc, even though the house 'has' 100M btc.

so the maximum payout on any bet, is roughly equal to the number of btc's actually invested by the investor that claims the most 'storage' btc's invested, in this case Investor A.

so in this case, a malicious investor risks 1 btc, there are no costs associated with claiming 100M storage btc's, and had effectively killed JD by reducing the max payout from its current 250btc down to 1 btc.

yes, this investor will likely lose their total 1 btc actually invested on the first or second bet. but whats to stop them from coming back a few minutes later and doing it again, and again, and again. the max payout would be at the whim of this 1 investor.

yes, dooglus could then ban these sock puppets left and right, but thats a lot of work.

the only ways to adjust variance for an investor are the same ways that the gamblers do it, by increasing or decreasing your wagered amount (investing and divesting), and by choosing bets with different odds (increasing and decreasing house edge, but dooglus would have to do this on a case by case basis and then recalculate after every bet)

i might be wrong on this analysis, but if im right, this seems really unappealing for gamblers and investors alike.

Very true, though the risk/rewards of this type of investment are both much higher.  Those other casino companies have other methods of revenue generation and other costs not related to ganbling. I am also not sure if this investment is more investing or just passive gambling. Let's just call it speculating!

but investing in gambling is
https://www.google.com/finance?q=czr&ei=lyLsUcipFMeTqQGg2AE
https://www.google.com/finance?q=mgm&ei=aSLsUbCrFoGIqgH-IA
https://www.google.com/finance?q=lvs&ei=eCLsUdCaJoWFrgGEuAE
https://www.google.com/finance?q=wynn&ei=gyLsUejOEoKGrgHQxQE

Yea that's to weed out all the idiot investors. After the dumb ones leave the smart people will have a larger % of site bankroll provided so we make big bucks and you make nothing.

I think the thing that stops them is that investing is too passive.  Gamblers want to pick their odds and click the bet button.  They don't want to deposit, invest, and wait for someone else to place the bet for them.


People who risk too high a percentage of their online coins will find that they very quickly go bust.  People will realise this and either not do it, or quickly stop doing it once they realise that it's not working out for them.


I'll try to counter those 4 points.

1) Big investors who currently can't justify keeping 99% of their coins inactive in my cold wallet "just because" will now be able to invest in the site.  This will dilute existing investors, but increase max profit, attracting bigger players.
2) Increasing risk is dangerous, and probably ruinous if you don't really have the offline coins you claim to have.  Investors withdrawing balances extra investment from point 1.  A balance will be reached.
3) Currently 1% of the online bankroll is under risk per roll.  The whole point of this proposed change is to allow that to be increased by having investors be able to keep control of some part of their investment that isn't actively needed (yet).
4) I don't know if that would actually happen.  Gamblers don't appear to be able to stay invested for long.  It's too passive and boring for them.  It lacks the buzz you get from clicking the 'bet' button.


It seems to me that you've understood it all clearly, and made some good arguments against it.  Thank you.  I'm by no means committed to taking this course, and appreciate you helping me explore the idea.

I don't think I like the fractional investing either.

Whats to stop "investing gamblers" from taking on a high risk with a 1% edge instead of gambling with -1%?
I feel like these people could invest like 50 btc, say they have 5,000 and gamble with a 1% edge. If enough people do this it will hurt the normal investors, who will either have a significantly reduced investment % while these people are gambling, or have to increase their risk themselves to keep a reasonable return... And everyone increasing their risk, increases the risk on the websites bankroll.

To take an extreme example, what happens if 10 people are invested in the website with 10 btc each (100 btc is physically on the website), and claim to have 990 in reserve bringing the websites total bankroll to 10,000. A winning max bet of 100 will wipe out all the investors reserves and the websites bankroll is now bust.

The way I see it:
1) Real investors will have their % of bankroll diluted by people gambling on investing.
2) Real investors will either accept this lower return, increase their own risk, or withdraw.
3) Overall the website's bankroll will probably be under more risk.
4) Wagered volume decreasing as people gamble on the investing side with a 1% edge instead of a -1% edge.

note: its entirely possible I'm misunderstanding part of this discussion

I don't like the idea about fractional investing. There will be huge swings when some whale plays. Many people woud lie about their actual balances and anything based on lie will go bust sooner or later. If some whale wins large amounts, many of investors go bust and you won't have much of them left. And as was already mentioned, this is another way how you can cheat and take money from investors.

thanks sonkit

You obviously got in at a  great point, congraz to you. Hope us all profit in long term.


stripykitteh: that 31791 whale is about 40%-50% volume of the site this month

If my memory is right this time a week ago the total volume was about 180,000BTC, now it is about 540,000BTC with some regular whales. Taking a long-term outlook, it's not impossible that the weekly turnover at some point will be a million BTC or more.

It's a very exciting time, but not without its challenges, either.

24 hours later & up over 2.69% & compounding on both the accounts that I opened yesterday, nice! Tomorrow I'll add some more & see if the full moon brings more/heavier bets, btw I made a birth chart for Just-Dice if anyone is interested or amused by astrology, if you dislike any mystic mumbo jumbo then please to just ignore it.

Oh wow I feel like an idiot now. I found the deposit button fine the other day, but today I was looking through the tabs instead of the top of the screen.

First post on this thread, updated weekly

Yes but he really didn't lose them, this has already been "fixed".
(see this thread)

I read an article online about you lost out on over 1000 coins...sucks.

Where can I find the anonymized investor balances?

Is that real time?

Yes with dooglus ide that people could invest for example 1 000 btc on JD and say they have 99% more 99 000 btc in there local wallet witch they dont have to have, then with that ide if they use it to maximize there exposure, then they can risk 100 % of there actual bankroll(the 1000 btc in this example that they have) that they then gamble with on the investors side and it can be lost on a single bet if some whale would come in and bet large.
Hopefulle Dooglus never introduces such things as it will put presure on investors to raise there risklevels(if others start rasing there's) for them to be able to achive an interest of any significanse.

I like the idea of local coins, I feel much safer keeping most of my Bitcoins in my own encrypted offline computer.