tldr: the 100 millionth bet gets 10 times its stake as a bonus, win or lose, up to 100*10 = 1000 CLAM, and only if the bet is at 50% or lower chance.
This will be interesting
May the odds be ever in your favor
Topic: Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest - page 50. (Read 454823 times)
tldr: the 100 millionth bet gets 10 times its stake as a bonus, win or lose, up to 100*10 = 1000 CLAM, and only if the bet is at 50% or lower chance.
This will be interesting
May the odds be ever in your favor
People were talking about a promo for the upcoming 100 millionth bet on Just-Dice, so:
20:36:31 (470587) !*** JD #100000000 milestone giveaway ***! 20 CLAM prize for any bet over 1 CLAM that lands || 5 CLAM prize for any bet under 1 CLAM (but over 0.00000069) ~ PM me if you want to add to the pot.
20:38:00 (1) <@dooglus> → (470587) are you talking about just the 100Mth bet?
20:38:09 (470587) → (1) <@dooglus> Yes sir
20:38:31 (470587) → (1) <@dooglus> CBI and I decided to just start making things interesting and doing milestone prizes
20:38:52 (470587) → (1) <@dooglus> So he backed the 5 on low I am backing the 20 on high
20:39:55 (1) <@dooglus> → (470587) ok, how's this? I'll add 10 times the bet size to the pot, for bets up to 100 CLAM - but only if the bet is 50% or lower chance
20:40:18 (470587) → (1) <@dooglus> Wow, that is very generous of you!
20:40:27 (1) <@dooglus> → (470587) so if the 100Mth bet is 100 CLAM @ 49.5%, they get 1k CLAM bonus
20:40:32 (1) <@dooglus> → (470587) if it's at 51%, they get nothing from me
20:40:38 (470587) → (1) <@dooglus> You want to announce it?
20:40:50 (1) <@dooglus> → (470587) no, I'm in the bath and typing's a pain
20:41:07 (470587) → (1) <@dooglus> Okay that I announce it then?
20:41:17 (1) <@dooglus> → (470587) of course
...
20:43:56 (470587) !**** 100M Milestone Update ****! The owners of Just-Dice have agreed to add 10 times the bet size to the pot, for bets up to 100 CLAM - but only if the bet is 50% or lower chance !!!! Get the word out and post it on the forums.
tldr: the 100 millionth bet gets 10 times its stake as a bonus, win or lose, up to 100*10 = 1000 CLAM, and only if the bet is at 50% or lower chance.
20:36:31 (470587)
20:38:00 (1) <@dooglus> → (470587)
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20:38:31 (470587)
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20:39:55 (1) <@dooglus> → (470587)
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20:40:27 (1) <@dooglus> → (470587)
20:40:32 (1) <@dooglus> → (470587)
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20:40:50 (1) <@dooglus> → (470587)
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20:43:56 (470587)
tldr: the 100 millionth bet gets 10 times its stake as a bonus, win or lose, up to 100*10 = 1000 CLAM, and only if the bet is at 50% or lower chance.
I thought you could find someone that went x100 and never invested/divested since Jan 26 and see how much its investment increase.
Almost everyone gets tips from the bots on the sites. It's hard to find someone who made a single 100x investment and left it untouched.
What about showing how much we stacked ?
The site shows investors how much they profited but not how much they stacked and we have to extrapolate to know how much we stacked.
The site shows investors how much they profited but not how much they stacked and we have to extrapolate to know how much we stacked.
I don't track staking profit separately from other profit.
Each person that buys CLAM and invests in the just-dice bankroll doesn't not make the other investors loose money by diluting their investments because he is pushing up the price of CLAM and grow the CLAM notoriety.
Your double negative makes it hard to understand what you're saying.
Each new investor does indeed dilute the profits of the existing investors.
Week by week my 1x investor's weekly profit is decreasing:
Quote
Dec 12 2014 0.00% 100.00%
Dec 15 2014 3.64% 103.64%
Dec 22 2014 5.02% 108.85%
Dec 29 2014 2.09% 111.13%
Jan 5 2015 8.16% 120.20%
Jan 12 2015 5.28% 126.55%
Jan 19 2015 3.55% 131.04%
Jan 26 2015 2.10% 133.79%
Feb 2 2015 2.10% 136.60%
Feb 9 2015 1.94% 139.24%
Feb 16 2015 1.93% 141.93%
Feb 23 2015 1.95% 144.70%
Mar 2 2015 1.81% 147.32%
Mar 9 2015 1.77% 149.93%
Mar 13 2015 1.16% 151.66%
Dec 15 2014 3.64% 103.64%
Dec 22 2014 5.02% 108.85%
Dec 29 2014 2.09% 111.13%
Jan 5 2015 8.16% 120.20%
Jan 12 2015 5.28% 126.55%
Jan 19 2015 3.55% 131.04%
Jan 26 2015 2.10% 133.79%
Feb 2 2015 2.10% 136.60%
Feb 9 2015 1.94% 139.24%
Feb 16 2015 1.93% 141.93%
Feb 23 2015 1.95% 144.70%
Mar 2 2015 1.81% 147.32%
Mar 9 2015 1.77% 149.93%
Mar 13 2015 1.16% 151.66%
For comparison, here's the 100x investor's profit so far:
Quote
Mar 7 2015 0.00% 100.00%
Mar 9 2015 0.64% 100.64%
Mar 13 2015 3.25% 103.91%
Mar 9 2015 0.64% 100.64%
Mar 13 2015 3.25% 103.91%
Obviously 1.7% per week is still great, but you can see the dilution in action there.
Site profit has been increasing steadily over time:
Each person that buys CLAM and invests in the just-dice bankroll doesn't not make the other investors loose money by diluting their investments because he is pushing up the price of CLAM and grow the CLAM notoriety.
Not bad considering the price of CLAM went up a lot in the same time. You could have created an other account on Jan 26 with 133.79 and offsite set to max to compare with offsite at 0.
Yes, but I didn't think of it unfortunately.
I'll do it now though.
I didn't think of it at the time either
You could extrapolate the results from Jan 26 to now with offsite set to max (even if the result will be different depending on how often a player reset to max)
I'm not sure it's worth the effort to go back and try to work out "what would have happened" - because you'll never get it right. My investment would have diluted others' investments, meaning they earned less, and so would have had less to gamble with, etc.
I've set up a new account with a 100x multiplier and will just leave it alone. I won't repeat the "/offsite max" at all, I'll just let it ride.
Remind me in a few weeks to post the results if I didn't do it already.
OK I will. I thought you could find someone that went x100 and never invested/divested since Jan 26 and see how much its investment increase.
What about showing how much we stacked ?
The site shows investors how much they profited but not how much they stacked and we have to extrapolate to know how much we stacked.
is there any chance of a bitcoin site coming back?
Yes but the question is what is the probability, maybe 5% that it comes back in the next 3 years.
did doog come up with those odds?
a quick search here
Does dooglus only plan to reopen with CLAM or does he plan to introduce BTC again?
I don't plan to introduce BTC again. Last time it really got out of hand. I don't want to be holding huge amounts of value for other people. It's scary. I said recently in the chat that I won't be opening for BTC again. That's overstating it since I'm not certain about that, but it's probably true.
So why was this reopened with CLAM? Why wasn't the reopening announced? Why add only CLAM and not BTC?
CLAM is cheap, and widely distributed. It's easy to get hold of, and many people already have it. BTC is expensive and an easy target for thieves. I didn't announce the reopening because I wanted a small, self-selected crowd to test it. There have been a small but loyal bunch of people hanging around the site ever since it shut down. It makes sense that they would be the most tolerant of the frequent restarts and even bugs that were likely to be part and parcel of the switch over to CLAM.
Does the site shut down again if a CLAM/USD exchange opens up?
No.
from the quote above it seems that dooglus got no intention to use BTC back, i might be wrong, but aslong as CLAMS are doing fine, it seems like the site will keep on using CLAMS, that 5% odds isnt something from dooglus i guess
is there any chance of a bitcoin site coming back?
Yes but the question is what is the probability, maybe 5% that it comes back in the next 3 years.
did doog come up with those odds?
is there any chance of a bitcoin site coming back?
Yes but the question is what is the probability, maybe 5% that it comes back in the next 3 years.
Much higher limits now at www.ShapeShift.io for CLAMS, enjoy!
BIG NEWS: "ShapeShift Raises $525k, Reveals @ErikVoorhees as Creator"- seed investors @RogerkVer @BarrySilbert http://ow.ly/K9Fvd
https://twitter.com/ShapeShift_io/status/575313996552761345
https://twitter.com/ShapeShift_io/status/575313996552761345
is there any chance of a bitcoin site coming back?
nice site shapeshift.
Just-dice players:
A new faucet www.FreeClamCo.in has been added to the faucet directory.
Please remember to bookmark www.ClamcoinFaucets.com (AKA www.ClamFaucets.com)
I'm hoping to get some daily promos out to players who play over a certain point each day or something
A new faucet www.FreeClamCo.in has been added to the faucet directory.
Please remember to bookmark www.ClamcoinFaucets.com (AKA www.ClamFaucets.com)
I'm hoping to get some daily promos out to players who play over a certain point each day or something
Not bad considering the price of CLAM went up a lot in the same time. You could have created an other account on Jan 26 with 133.79 and offsite set to max to compare with offsite at 0.
Yes, but I didn't think of it unfortunately.
I'll do it now though.
I didn't think of it at the time either
You could extrapolate the results from Jan 26 to now with offsite set to max (even if the result will be different depending on how often a player reset to max)
I'm not sure it's worth the effort to go back and try to work out "what would have happened" - because you'll never get it right. My investment would have diluted others' investments, meaning they earned less, and so would have had less to gamble with, etc.
I've set up a new account with a 100x multiplier and will just leave it alone. I won't repeat the "/offsite max" at all, I'll just let it ride.
Remind me in a few weeks to post the results if I didn't do it already.
Not bad considering the price of CLAM went up a lot in the same time. You could have created an other account on Jan 26 with 133.79 and offsite set to max to compare with offsite at 0.
Yes, but I didn't think of it unfortunately.
I'll do it now though.
I didn't think of it at the time either
You could extrapolate the results from Jan 26 to now with offsite set to max (even if the result will be different depending on how often a player reset to max)
Not bad considering the price of CLAM went up a lot in the same time. You could have created an other account on Jan 26 with 133.79 and offsite set to max to compare with offsite at 0.
Yes, but I didn't think of it unfortunately.
I'll do it now though.
Doog what is the average % per day profit atm?
I have weekly stats, for an account I made early on and have left with no offsite investment. So this is a "1x" investor:
Dec 12 2014 0.00% 100.00%
Dec 15 2014 3.64% 103.64%
Dec 22 2014 5.02% 108.85%
Dec 29 2014 2.09% 111.13%
Jan 5 2015 8.16% 120.20%
Jan 12 2015 5.28% 126.55%
Jan 19 2015 3.55% 131.04%
Jan 26 2015 2.10% 133.79% <-- this is the first week in which "offsite investing" was allowed
Feb 2 2015 2.10% 136.60%
Feb 9 2015 1.94% 139.24%
Feb 16 2015 1.93% 141.93%
Feb 23 2015 1.95% 144.70%
Mar 2 2015 1.81% 147.32%
Mar 4 2015 0.72% 148.38%
If we say that's 1.9% per week on average then that's about 0.27% per day, compounded
[ ((1 + 1.9/100) ** (1.0/7) - 1) * 100 = 0.269244 ]
Not bad considering the price of CLAM went up a lot in the same time. You could have created an other account on Jan 26 with 133.79 and offsite set to max to compare with offsite at 0.
We played around with some depth calibrations for CLAMS - the rate should be significantly better now.
The maximum is only around half a bitcoin now as we just launched it. If people start to use it then we'll increase those limits (we also keep them low initially in case there are bugs with new coins).
Well that makes sense.
Are you able to tell us what the avg size of deposits or withdrawals is?
They really come in all sizes. I suspect that the bigger traders probably aren't going to be in the market for your service because they're more price sensitive, and I assume you charge a fee on top of the exchange fee. Also, a lot of the trading that happens on JD happens in the form of off-chain transactions - one user with "tip" another some CLAM from his balance in exchange for (real) bitcoin. That's a reasonable solution for two users who trust each other or who can find a mutually acceptable escrow. I would think your service would be more useful for newcomers who want an easy way to get started without the tedious business of finding someone to deal with. Having said that, 1 BTC or so is probably enough for most.
You can only switch the pair if you haven't already moved to step 2. Before moving to step 2, specify the currency you want to deposit and what you want to receive.
I was mostly wanting to switch so that I could see the exchange rate in each direction, and from that calculate your mark-up. But now I notice the rate is shown as soon as I select the currency pair. I'm not sure why I didn't notice that before.
As of right now I'm seeing:
1.00 CLAM = 0.00559481 BTC
1.00 BTC = 132.5177
Multiplying these together:
0.00559481 * 132.5177 = 0.7414
So if I trade BTC to CLAM and back again, I end up with 74% of my starting amount of BTC.
Is that because of the market spread? Or are you really charging a 13.9% fee in each direction?
100 - (0.00559481 * 132.5177) ^ 0.5 * 100 = 13.9
It's because of market spread and the issue of market depth. ShapeShift prices coins without slippage (so your whole order processes at one price, instead of sliding through an order book). The less deep the coin's exchange market, the wider that spread will be. To compare it, you should do a couple BTC worth of instant exchange at a normal exchange, into CLAMS and then back to BTC, and see what happens. Consider also the time delay it takes to get money into and then back out of the exchange (can be 30 mins to a couple hours).
The maximum is only around half a bitcoin now as we just launched it. If people start to use it then we'll increase those limits (we also keep them low initially in case there are bugs with new coins).
Well that makes sense.
Are you able to tell us what the avg size of deposits or withdrawals is?
They really come in all sizes. I suspect that the bigger traders probably aren't going to be in the market for your service because they're more price sensitive, and I assume you charge a fee on top of the exchange fee. Also, a lot of the trading that happens on JD happens in the form of off-chain transactions - one user with "tip" another some CLAM from his balance in exchange for (real) bitcoin. That's a reasonable solution for two users who trust each other or who can find a mutually acceptable escrow. I would think your service would be more useful for newcomers who want an easy way to get started without the tedious business of finding someone to deal with. Having said that, 1 BTC or so is probably enough for most.
You can only switch the pair if you haven't already moved to step 2. Before moving to step 2, specify the currency you want to deposit and what you want to receive.
I was mostly wanting to switch so that I could see the exchange rate in each direction, and from that calculate your mark-up. But now I notice the rate is shown as soon as I select the currency pair. I'm not sure why I didn't notice that before.
As of right now I'm seeing:
1.00 CLAM = 0.00559481 BTC
1.00 BTC = 132.5177
Multiplying these together:
0.00559481 * 132.5177 = 0.7414
So if I trade BTC to CLAM and back again, I end up with 74% of my starting amount of BTC.
Is that because of the market spread? Or are you really charging a 13.9% fee in each direction?
100 - (0.00559481 * 132.5177) ^ 0.5 * 100 = 13.9
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