Probability of sets is completely separate from Gambler's Fallacy.
I hear you on the law of averages, however current or past luck in the "long" run doesn't really have much to do with meeting that average.
No, you don't hear me. I am not talking about the law of averages, despite what everyone keeps interpreting from my posts. Probability of sets is a totally separate statistical analysis, it has nothing to do with "averages" or "luck". I don't know how to be any more clear than I have been, so I guess I'll give up.
You know I wasted some time writing a post about this, then decided, meh don't bother I doubt I'm going to have to read any more of this crap ... but you keep posting it ... ok here's the post:
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Sigh, I feel like deleting a bunch of posts coz this whole Gambler's Fallacy thing is getting annoying.
"I'm not wrong, I was talking about some, completely unrelated to bitcoin, mathematics ..."
Here, have a read of this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy#An_example:_coin-tossingBUT most importantly, look at the image on the right and the description.
Luck DOES NOT correct itself.
Expectation is always 100%
... not 50% coz we got a 150%, not 3 reds in a row coz we got 3 greens, not any other random thing someone thinks up.
That is all Gamber's Fallacy, it's not "some better theory", it's Gambler's Fallacy.
The reason why luck tends towards 100% is not a correction on what happened before, it's that you always expect 100%
If you have have 200% luck since a pool started for 100 blocks (yeah that'd be pretty lucky) you still expect to get 100% for future blocks.
So, since maths goes on forever and an eternity, the average of 100 x 200% + 1,000,000 x expected 100% moves closer to 100%
That expectation is to approach 100%, in this case from above, but it's not correcting history, it's simply expecting to average closer to 100%
Here's what you said to start all this:
After such a stellar run Friday we are going to be due for some nasty red blocks. Hopefully not too many, but it is a certainty that they will happen.
Yes that's wrong.