Topic: [LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining) - page 290. (Read 1079974 times)

Bayesian statistics actually work great for non-scientific situations (like this one). This is how I see the situation based on reading this thread every single day since before the IPO and doing my own research. Feel free to disagree though, I'm not saying you can't.

Don't worry everyone, I just decided to get out (too much drama). I guarantee that at least one of 2 things will happen:

1) The stock will rise to a level where you can get out without losing too much money/make a small profit if you timed your buys correctly
2) Labcoin will release good news causing the stock to shoot up and you'll make money

If you were helped by my action, a donation would be appreciated 

whats the odds that they left it thinking it was stable, went home and it crashed and as its Chinease holiday nobody is there to fix it...

So, wait. Is Swede the issuer or spokesperson?

i think he's trying to say it's subjective probability

Well, there's my actual laugh-out-loud today.

 

No, it's mostly me having a very low opinion of Bayesian statistics ^^

You must be kidding..

Sure you can. It's called Bayesian statistics.

you can't just write arbitary 30%, 50% 10% and 5% of "they have chips...but" and write 1% that they don't have chips

Very likely but not necessarily! Easy to come up with a plausible scenario to explain this mess... there are hundreds of possibilities the only people that know for sure are Sam and their team. For example:

Imagine you are Sam. You wait 6 months for the day chips and boards arrive. You can't sleep for the last week. You really want to tell everyone you hit the nail in the head, 15/September is the deadline you set yourself 6 months ago.

The chips and boards arrive on the 14th. You team starts assembling them. Everyone spends the whole night trying to get it to work... suddenly: It's working!

You send a message to everyone saying "We are hashing with 2TH/s".

10 minutes later: board stops working.

Engineers get to it... make it work again.... but after 15 minutes stops working.

You speak with the lead engineer: he says he thinks he knows what the issue is and can get it fixed in 24 hours.

But 24 hours later.... still not working. Engineer asks for another 48 hours...

48 hours later... it's better. So you keep your promise... but after 12 hours working the board stops again and now the whole thing is fried, won't even turn back on.

Add to this some delivery/production issues (so you don't even have some spare chips yet to replace that) - the factory promised chips "in about 2 days" and have been delaying for a week already...

Market recap of these last 24 hours:

SHARES: 89'074 bought vs. 983'810 sold
BTC: 172 BTC bought vs. 1723 BTC sold

Pretty much agree with that breakdown and odds.

6) Something else I didn't think of: 4%

aaaaaaand back to IPO price. I wish I'd bought more put options

 You are a probability genius.. can i get a spreadsheet plz

All of the above indicates they are dishonest. They claim to be mining with, 2 - 6 TH/s.

Ok so if we accept those are the facts, on the possible scenarios of what is really happening, this is how I see things:

1) It's a scam, they don't even have chips, never intended to have and just bought some Avalons: 1% chance
2) They have chips and are mining but for their own profit: 5% chance
3) They have some working sample chips (10 or so), but are having production/delivery issues with the remaining chips: 30% chance
4) They have chips and are having technical issues: 50% chance
5) They have chips but there is some catastrophic flaw with them that can never be solved: 10%

Making some CG of flat board and chips is not more expensive than getting actual boards and chips, are you even serious?
What would have been difficult is making it convincing, making CG of assembled miners in a real life surrounding.
But, sure, whatever, fine, then it's not CG Then let it be real photos of nothing. What does that prove to you?

So just so I understand it correctly, you're still on the side that they're for real, and "just having some problems", right? Please, explain to me: Why?
Why can't you just take occam's razor and apply it? It's so easy. They're a complete and outright scam, from the ground up.

And you can be pissed about the fact that we are right, fine. It's understandable that you're angry.
But maybe you'll understand soon that we've just been trying to help and make you and all the others see through something that was becoming more and more of an obvious scam.
Maybe you should direct your anger towards the people that actually deserve it.