[LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining) - page 636.

Mabsark

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1004

Quote from: physalis on September 06, 2013, 10:10:43 AM

Quote from: BitThink on September 06, 2013, 08:33:26 AM

Quote from: twentyseventy on September 06, 2013, 08:28:33 AM

Quote from: BitThink on September 06, 2013, 08:07:24 AM

Pretty sure you've made a big mistake in daily BTC outcome of both 6T and 44T. Should be around 27 and 198 respectively.

Would you mind showing your work? I'd like to see where I went wrong, if I did-

Current net hash rate is around 800T, and there's 3600 BTC a day. 4T is 0.5% of the total hash rate, thus 3600 * 0.005 = 18. So 6T is 27.

There is way more than 3600 BTC a day, because we don't have a confirmation time of 10 minutes.
And that will continue for the foreseeable future, as long as we have an increasing difficulty.
All the mining calculators and calculations like your's don't factor that in, so they are always underestimating.

I think it's silly to use time scales like day, week, month, etc. Bitcoin has it's own time scales - 2016 blocks and 210,000 blocks. By using bitcoin's natural time frames in conjunction with a constant percentage of the network, you get rid of the variability from difficulty increases. For example:

25 BTC/Block
2,016 Blocks/Round
25 * 2,016 = 50,400 BTC/Round
50,400 BTC * 0.5 / 100 = 252 BTC/Round

AngelSky

hero member

Activity: 1008

Merit: 537

Quote from: mfalme on September 06, 2013, 12:07:12 PM

Quote from: N_S on September 06, 2013, 11:49:19 AM

Yep, that was it! I accidentally hit ignore on a Swede post while I was browsing the forum on my phone.

Alright back to the meaningful discussions! lol

awwwww we coulda used that info to create panic for cheap shares Cool

Just say hello here and you'll see a panic sell Grin

mfalme

newbie

Activity: 40

Merit: 0

Quote from: N_S on September 06, 2013, 11:49:19 AM

Yep, that was it! I accidentally hit ignore on a Swede post while I was browsing the forum on my phone.

Alright back to the meaningful discussions! lol

awwwww we coulda used that info to create panic for cheap shares Cool

Stuartuk

sr. member

Activity: 266

Merit: 250

I think it's great that people are trying to do the Math to work out the exact divs were are expecting based on:

SEP - 130 chip Hashing power, deployment/difficulty then in NOV more 130 chip hashing power, more deployment/difficulty

And someone even mentioned hardware sales.

The one question I have is - why is it that shareholders are having to do all these calculations? I mean, with a few days to go before the hashing is supposed to start kicking in shouldn't LabCoin themselves be on here doing the calculations for us?

Atleast they have the accurate figures and time scales? I would say it's not good to base your investments on forecasts from other shareholders using figures that could be wide of the mark. You should only take these predictions onboard if they come from the company shouldn't you? What do they have to say about it?

Bitcycle

sr. member

Activity: 420

Merit: 250

I think all the large dumps may be coming from one person.

N_S

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Yep, that was it! I accidentally hit ignore on a Swede post while I was browsing the forum on my phone.

Alright back to the meaningful discussions! lol

kokojie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1003

Quote from: N_S on September 06, 2013, 11:11:28 AM

Slightly off-topic, but is this thread showing up as grayed-out on the Securities page?

That's because "TheSwede75" is on your ignore list, he's also on mine.

physalis

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: Rival on September 06, 2013, 11:36:58 AM

Quote from: Ytterbium on September 06, 2013, 11:32:03 AM

Quote from: wickedgoodtrader on September 06, 2013, 11:21:23 AM

I would say the saturation point is NOW. Do you people realize hashing as gone up almost 300% in just one month? The real money to be made in the asic boom is gone. Anybody investing in companies now expecting price increases relative to the way AM went is living in a dreamland.

We're not even close. Maybe 10-15PH. With four cointerra chips per board, you would only need 500 boards to get 1PH. Easily doable.

You could do it with one board if you use unicorns and fairy dust.

Doing that would have a bad effect on $/GH though. That shit is expensive.

twentyseventy

legendary

Activity: 1386

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Ytterbium on September 06, 2013, 11:29:26 AM

Quote from: N_S on September 06, 2013, 11:18:41 AM

Quote from: Ytterbium on September 06, 2013, 11:12:28 AM

Quote from: N_S on September 06, 2013, 11:11:28 AM

Slightly off-topic, but is this thread showing up as grayed-out on the Securities page?

Not for me.

This is what I get:

*shrug* - looks fine to me. Did you remove it from your watchlist or something?

Have you ignored 'TheSwede75'?

All of MPOE-PR's topics show up like that to me, since I have him on Ignore

Ytterbium

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: Rival on September 06, 2013, 11:36:58 AM

Quote from: Ytterbium on September 06, 2013, 11:32:03 AM

Quote from: wickedgoodtrader on September 06, 2013, 11:21:23 AM

I would say the saturation point is NOW. Do you people realize hashing as gone up almost 300% in just one month? The real money to be made in the asic boom is gone. Anybody investing in companies now expecting price increases relative to the way AM went is living in a dreamland.

We're not even close. Maybe 10-15PH. With four cointerra chips per board, you would only need 500 boards to get 1PH. Easily doable.

You could do it with one board if you use unicorns and fairy dust.

You mean one board with 4 chips, or one board with 2,000 chips?

I'm not sure if understand why it would be difficult to do 4 chips on one board. 2,000 would obviously be more of a challenge. You would need to explore some... alternative... fabrication techniques.

Rival

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 502

Quote from: Ytterbium on September 06, 2013, 11:32:03 AM

Quote from: wickedgoodtrader on September 06, 2013, 11:21:23 AM

I would say the saturation point is NOW. Do you people realize hashing as gone up almost 300% in just one month? The real money to be made in the asic boom is gone. Anybody investing in companies now expecting price increases relative to the way AM went is living in a dreamland.

We're not even close. Maybe 10-15PH. With four cointerra chips per board, you would only need 500 boards to get 1PH. Easily doable.

You could do it with one board if you use unicorns and fairy dust.

Ytterbium

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: wickedgoodtrader on September 06, 2013, 11:21:23 AM

I would say the saturation point is NOW. Do you people realize hashing as gone up almost 300% in just one month? The real money to be made in the asic boom is gone. Anybody investing in companies now expecting price increases relative to the way AM went is living in a dreamland.

We're not even close. Maybe 10-15PH. With four cointerra chips per board, you would only need 500 boards to get 1PH. Easily doable.

Ytterbium

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: N_S on September 06, 2013, 11:18:41 AM

Quote from: Ytterbium on September 06, 2013, 11:12:28 AM

Quote from: N_S on September 06, 2013, 11:11:28 AM

Slightly off-topic, but is this thread showing up as grayed-out on the Securities page?

Not for me.

This is what I get:

*shrug* - looks fine to me. Did you remove it from your watchlist or something?

jeffhuys

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

Quote from: physalis on September 06, 2013, 11:25:38 AM

Quote from: N_S on September 06, 2013, 11:18:41 AM

Quote from: Ytterbium on September 06, 2013, 11:12:28 AM

Quote from: N_S on September 06, 2013, 11:11:28 AM

Slightly off-topic, but is this thread showing up as grayed-out on the Securities page?

Not for me.

This is what I get:

Doesn't look like that for me

Not here either.

physalis

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: N_S on September 06, 2013, 11:18:41 AM

Quote from: Ytterbium on September 06, 2013, 11:12:28 AM

Quote from: N_S on September 06, 2013, 11:11:28 AM

Slightly off-topic, but is this thread showing up as grayed-out on the Securities page?

Not for me.

This is what I get:

Doesn't look like that for me

wickedgoodtrader

full member

Activity: 220

Merit: 100

Yeah, but the problem is if you try to model difficulty, you need to model it both ways - both the reduction in block time, as well as the exponentially increasing amount you have to spend on hardware per unit of time to keep up with that. At some point, the network growth will have to slow down as production becomes saturated. At that point, you actually do get the 3600btc/x amount.

So, makes the most sense to model it that way.
[/quote]

I would say the saturation point is NOW. Do you people realize hashing as gone up almost 300% in just one month? The real money to be made in the asic boom is gone. Anybody investing in companies now expecting price increases relative to the way AM went is living in a dreamland.

N_S

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: Ytterbium on September 06, 2013, 11:12:28 AM

Quote from: N_S on September 06, 2013, 11:11:28 AM

Slightly off-topic, but is this thread showing up as grayed-out on the Securities page?

Not for me.

This is what I get:

Ytterbium

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: N_S on September 06, 2013, 11:11:28 AM

Slightly off-topic, but is this thread showing up as grayed-out on the Securities page?

Not for me.

N_S

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Slightly off-topic, but is this thread showing up as grayed-out on the Securities page?

Ytterbium

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: physalis on September 06, 2013, 10:49:04 AM

Quote from: Ytterbium on September 06, 2013, 10:16:30 AM

That's actually not that relevant, since you only "benefit" from increasing difficulty if you can keep up with it. So you while it's true coins are generated more quickly then they should be, it's also true that it means you, personally, make less money then you would if it was static.

Agreed, if we're talking about a fix hashrate.
But people in this context often calculate like "If you have x.x% share of the network, you'll make X BTC per month".
If you're just taking "25BTC/10min total for the network", that is wrong and your calculated profit will be too low.

Yeah, but the problem is if you try to model difficulty, you need to model it both ways - both the reduction in block time, as well as the exponentially increasing amount you have to spend on hardware per unit of time to keep up with that. At some point, the network growth will have to slow down as production becomes saturated. At that point, you actually do get the 3600btc/x amount.

So, makes the most sense to model it that way.

Topic: [LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining) - page 636. (Read 1079974 times)