I actually expect it to stay lower. Maybe 200 mil diff around the start of october, possibly 300-400 mil at the end of october. Probably lower.
I think people underestimate how extremely difficult it is to sustain such exponential growth as we're seeing it right now.
It won't go on forever like this, the industry just isn't there to feed this growth. Or I'm unable to see it.
All the outstanding Avalon chips, which is (correct me if I'm wrong) by far the biggest delivery expected right now, amount for about 200-300TH. And that is HUGE. But to get to 500 mil difficulty, we'd still need to add more than ten times that. Think how long it took Avalon to produce and distribute this batch (and they're still not finished). All that hardware being produced, distributed and deployed in 2 months? Nah, I just don't see it happening.
Yes, there are lots of projects coming up to do help sustain the growth (hi labcoin!), but how well they all perform is still completely uncertain. And that they reach such high levels of productivity within such a short time is out of the question for me. So I'm staying positive. I believe if labcoin reaches their goals and gets their chips working within the next months, there's still a LOT of profit to be made.
Who knows, this is very hard to predict. But I don't agree with you about how hard it is to sustain. That would be true if you were trying to do it alone. But you are not alone, and it is the group that grows exponentially. At least it has been for the last six months, as can clearly seen in the graph. Eventually it will level off of course.
A factor is the profitability of the first generation of ASICS. Avalon efficiency is 8.5 Ws/GH, so they will begin to disappear from the network at difficulty 200 million or so, if I do the math correctly. I don't know about ASICMINER/BlockErupter chips. Clearly power efficiency will start to be important pretty soon.
The amount of pre-order TH in the line coming in the next month are huge. The difficulty, 30 day timeframe, went from 46% to 71% and is now at 94%. And 46% was huge already. That will only get worse when all the preorder comes online.
I don't quite understand this either. What do these numbers mean? And where do you get them?
Can't wait
