Let's recap on what we've seen in the past few months - page 5.

Synaptic

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: Swishercutter on September 02, 2011, 11:56:50 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin Swami on September 02, 2011, 11:39:43 PM

Quote from: fcmatt on September 02, 2011, 03:16:15 PM

Would a fair estimate be 200 active FPGA mining boards exist today and that would be about 20 gh/s?
If so they do represent a tiny fraction of the mining power today and their uptake would have to
increase in such a dramatic fashion to even become a blip on a chart.

Don't they do around 100 mh/s?

Wouldn't that be just 2 gh?

100,000,000 x 200= 20,000,000,000

Uh, buddy...kinda went a whole fucking of order of magnitude overboard there...

But, this community shouldn't surprise anyone by now...

Swishercutter

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: Bitcoin Swami on September 02, 2011, 11:39:43 PM

Quote from: fcmatt on September 02, 2011, 03:16:15 PM

Would a fair estimate be 200 active FPGA mining boards exist today and that would be about 20 gh/s?
If so they do represent a tiny fraction of the mining power today and their uptake would have to
increase in such a dramatic fashion to even become a blip on a chart.

Don't they do around 100 mh/s?

Wouldn't that be just 2 gh?

100,000,000 x 200= 20,000,000,000

Bitcoin Swami

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 100

Quote from: fcmatt on September 02, 2011, 03:16:15 PM

Would a fair estimate be 200 active FPGA mining boards exist today and that would be about 20 gh/s?
If so they do represent a tiny fraction of the mining power today and their uptake would have to
increase in such a dramatic fashion to even become a blip on a chart.

Don't they do around 100 mh/s?

Wouldn't that be just 2 gh?

alexanderanon

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Synaptic is just another autistic 17 year old INTJ with awkward sentence structure and a general loathing for anyone who doesn't agree with him, whether his arguments are supported or not. Move on, nothing to see here.

geek-trader

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

Well, I just "ignored" a user for the first time. Grin

Bet you can't guess which one?

Synaptic

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: doktor99 on September 02, 2011, 03:24:30 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on September 02, 2011, 10:39:00 AM

Quote from: grod on September 02, 2011, 10:34:14 AM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 02, 2011, 10:24:30 AM

When the hashing power has decreased and rigs were sold. But yeah people are in denial, that's what gives ~~scam artists~~ alternate cryptocurrencies a free hand.

Deepbit disagrees with you. Over the past month the hash rate there (measured, not estimated) has gone from 5 terahash to 5.5 terahash. It was going up 50 gigahash a day as the price went below $10, and has since flatlined -- but it has not decreased in any measurable way.

*MY* remaining mining hardware is on craigslist, I don't deny it. Already sold two 5830s for $120 each, hoping for a difficulty drop or price pop to sell the last 2. But that won't be the general case until FPGA and ASIC miners make video cards as obsolete as CPUs.

Why do you people still believe there's going to be bitcoin ASICs? How many goddamn times does it have to be drilled into your head that the economics will NEVER work out enough to develop one until BTC are trading for well over $50/coin steadily...

I'm interested to know your assumptions behind your $50 price to justify ASIC mining. Please share if you're willing.

I might be far underestimating the necessary value here, but at $50/BTC (sustainable), it becomes feasible for companies with the large disposable capital necessary to fund ASIC development/fabrication to spend with a reasonable expectation of ROI and possibly size-able profit.

However, that still doesn't negate the fact I've addressed before that even if an ASIC were developed, as long as it was profitable to mine with one, YOU and every individual idiot wanting it wouldn't get their hands on one, because it will ALWAYS be mroe profitable for the one who spend the development capital to simply mine with the fruits of their effort.

ASICs will never have a public adoption if they were to hypothetically developed, because the investors would just put them online and mine for themselves at a much higher profitability than selling the chips. $50 is just my flippant estimation of when a particular set of capital holders feel it's worth their while.

doktor99

newbie

Activity: 15

Merit: 0

Quote from: Synaptic on September 02, 2011, 10:39:00 AM

Quote from: grod on September 02, 2011, 10:34:14 AM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 02, 2011, 10:24:30 AM

When the hashing power has decreased and rigs were sold. But yeah people are in denial, that's what gives ~~scam artists~~ alternate cryptocurrencies a free hand.

Deepbit disagrees with you. Over the past month the hash rate there (measured, not estimated) has gone from 5 terahash to 5.5 terahash. It was going up 50 gigahash a day as the price went below $10, and has since flatlined -- but it has not decreased in any measurable way.

*MY* remaining mining hardware is on craigslist, I don't deny it. Already sold two 5830s for $120 each, hoping for a difficulty drop or price pop to sell the last 2. But that won't be the general case until FPGA and ASIC miners make video cards as obsolete as CPUs.

Why do you people still believe there's going to be bitcoin ASICs? How many goddamn times does it have to be drilled into your head that the economics will NEVER work out enough to develop one until BTC are trading for well over $50/coin steadily...

I'm interested to know your assumptions behind your $50 price to justify ASIC mining. Please share if you're willing.

defxor

hero member

Activity: 530

Merit: 500

Quote from: fcmatt on September 02, 2011, 02:33:31 PM

If the price of BTC goes below that most people are just going to quit

is functionally equivalent to

Quote from: fcmatt on September 02, 2011, 03:16:15 PM

their uptake would have to increase in such a dramatic fashion to even become a blip on a chart.

proudhon

legendary

Activity: 2198

Merit: 1311

Quote from: Synaptic on September 02, 2011, 03:06:55 PM

Quote from: defxor on September 02, 2011, 03:04:23 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on September 02, 2011, 03:00:43 PM

There you go with your lack of math skills again...

I'm sure we are all impressed with the multitude of calculations you've posted here today

Quote

It seems you've totally forgotten about difficulty retargetings, which in the event that miners continue to drop out, GPU's will sill HEAVILY out-perform even the cheapest FPGAs, especially since most of them will be PAID OFF ALREADY or incidental to a gamers rig anyway...

I agree that the GPU rigs will HEAVILY outperform even the cheapest FPGAs in electricity costs.

(where "paid off already" or being "gaming rigs" is of no relevance whatsoever)

Difficulty retargeting is slow and depends on how quickly FPGA/ASIC uptake replaces GPUs in total Mhash/s as well.

There is no FPGA/ASIC uptake, you're just fucking stupid.

Ask Vladamir what he's buying, or even planning on buying in the next year.

I assure you it isn't FPGAs.

I think the reason people aren't getting your point is that you're not being insulting enough.

fcmatt

legendary

Activity: 2072

Merit: 1001

Would a fair estimate be 200 active FPGA mining boards exist today and that would be about 20 gh/s?
If so they do represent a tiny fraction of the mining power today and their uptake would have to
increase in such a dramatic fashion to even become a blip on a chart.

Synaptic

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: defxor on September 02, 2011, 03:12:16 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on September 02, 2011, 03:06:55 PM

you're just fucking stupid

Your math abilities are indeed amazing. Do you always win your arguments with such logical brilliance?

Yes.

defxor

hero member

Activity: 530

Merit: 500

Quote from: Synaptic on September 02, 2011, 03:06:55 PM

you're just fucking stupid

Your math abilities are indeed amazing. Do you always win your arguments with such logical brilliance?

Synaptic

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: defxor on September 02, 2011, 03:04:23 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on September 02, 2011, 03:00:43 PM

There you go with your lack of math skills again...

I'm sure we are all impressed with the multitude of calculations you've posted here today

Quote

It seems you've totally forgotten about difficulty retargetings, which in the event that miners continue to drop out, GPU's will sill HEAVILY out-perform even the cheapest FPGAs, especially since most of them will be PAID OFF ALREADY or incidental to a gamers rig anyway...

I agree that the GPU rigs will HEAVILY outperform even the cheapest FPGAs in electricity costs.

(where "paid off already" or being "gaming rigs" is of no relevance whatsoever)

Difficulty retargeting is slow and depends on how quickly FPGA/ASIC uptake replaces GPUs in total Mhash/s as well.

There is no FPGA/ASIC uptake, you're just fucking stupid.

Ask Vladamir what he's buying, or even planning on buying in the next year.

I assure you it isn't FPGAs.

defxor

hero member

Activity: 530

Merit: 500

Quote from: Synaptic on September 02, 2011, 03:00:43 PM

There you go with your lack of math skills again...

I'm sure we are all impressed with the multitude of calculations you've posted here today

Quote

It seems you've totally forgotten about difficulty retargetings, which in the event that miners continue to drop out, GPU's will sill HEAVILY out-perform even the cheapest FPGAs, especially since most of them will be PAID OFF ALREADY or incidental to a gamers rig anyway...

I agree that the GPU rigs will HEAVILY outperform even the cheapest FPGAs in maximizing electricity costs.

(where "paid off already" or being "gaming rigs" is of no relevance whatsoever)

Difficulty retargeting is slow and depends on how quickly FPGA/ASIC uptake replaces GPUs in total Mhash/s as well.

Synaptic

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: defxor on September 02, 2011, 02:54:33 PM

Quote from: fcmatt on September 02, 2011, 02:33:31 PM

If the price of BTC goes below that most people are just going to quit

and

Quote

if those people who own FPGA want to carry the load and make 10-20 cents a day

are mutually exclusive statements

(at $4/BTC most GPU miners will quit, yet there's still $1.5M mined a year)

There you go with your lack of math skills again...

It seems you've totally forgotten about difficulty retargetings, which in the event that miners continue to drop out, GPU's will sill HEAVILY out-perform even the cheapest FPGAs, especially since most of them will be PAID OFF ALREADY or incidental to a gamers rig anyway...

You really embarrass yourself, it's pitiful.

defxor

hero member

Activity: 530

Merit: 500

Quote from: fcmatt on September 02, 2011, 02:33:31 PM

If the price of BTC goes below that most people are just going to quit

and

Quote

if those people who own FPGA want to carry the load and make 10-20 cents a day

are mutually exclusive statements

(at $4/BTC most GPU miners will quit, yet there's still ~~$1.5M~~ $10.5M mined a year)

fcmatt

legendary

Activity: 2072

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Synaptic on September 02, 2011, 01:25:50 PM

Quote from: defxor on September 02, 2011, 01:22:10 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on September 02, 2011, 01:13:12 PM

But if you think FPGAs and ASICs are going to be profitable or even exist

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/btcminer-open-source-bitcoin-miner-for-ztex-fpga-boards-215-mhs-on-lx150-40047
&
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/x6500-custom-fpga-miner-40058 (they sold out the previous run)

As to profitable, I thought it was you who - like me - believed $/BTC was going down?

I wasn't unaware of these FPGAs. I was exploring using an FPGA when I got in on the mining hype before the bubble burst. Since of course, a FIELD PROGRAMMABLE GATE ARRAY can be used for whatever the fuck you're able to program on it.

ASICs for Bitcoin however, do not and will not exist in the market.

I knew about those FPGAs. They still do not make sense to me from a reasonable ROI.

I know about Art Forz and his ASIC work. I cannot quote exactly what he did in detail but he is the closest
to actually doing it that exists today to my knowledge. He admits they are not exactly a great ROI either
since they are a limited hobbyist type of thing.

GPUs are here to stay for quite a while and represent the only real chance to make money when mining
in less then 4-6 months with a BTC price around 8 dollars and average elect costs. So to me there is no
debate. If the price of BTC goes below that most people are just going to quit and not bother with FPGA/ASIC.
If difficulty decreases enough for them to get back in they will. Most miners I know will not tolerate a
multi year pay off on hardware, period.

So if those people who own FPGA want to carry the load and make 10-20 cents a day.. most miners will
let them and move on. None of us really expected the gravy train to last forever.

defxor

hero member

Activity: 530

Merit: 500

Quote from: Nagle on September 02, 2011, 02:00:53 PM

But, remember, all miners collectively are limited to about 7200 BTC per week. Building vast amounts of mining capacity can increase your share of that, but not total production.

Today's share of CPUs in mining is 0%. A product like Xilinx EasyPath ($75000 NRE + lots of orders) would bring current FPGA upfront costs down quite a lot. What's needed for someone to gamble on such a venture is the belief that ASIC (or if you want to call EasyPath a hybrid FPGA/ASIC solution) miners would grab a significant share of those ~~7200 BTC per week~~. (edit: ~~$2/BTC is still $750k/year~~)

If the BTC price is going down to levels where it's just not profitable for GPU miners to mine due to electricity costs, that will indeed happen.

edit: I went with 7200 BTC per week from Nagle without thinking. It's 7200 per day though which changes the calculations a bit. Even with $2/BTC that would still mean the value of bitcoin mining for a year to be $5.26M.

Synaptic

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: Nagle on September 02, 2011, 02:00:53 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on September 02, 2011, 01:25:50 PM

ASICs for Bitcoin however, do not and will not exist in the market.

Someone might do one for fun, if they're taking an ASIC design course or something. But, remember, all miners collectively are limited to about 7200 BTC per week. Building vast amounts of mining capacity can increase your share of that, but not total production.

Right, the whole thing is just asinine in it's execution.

The sooner Bitcoin and it's clones die, the better it will be for cryptocurrency as a concept, and potential viable alternative currency.

Nagle

legendary

Activity: 1204

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Synaptic on September 02, 2011, 01:25:50 PM

ASICs for Bitcoin however, do not and will not exist in the market.

Someone might do one for fun, if they're taking an ASIC design course or something. But, remember, all miners collectively are limited to about 7200 BTC per week. Building vast amounts of mining capacity can increase your share of that, but not total production.

Topic: Let's recap on what we've seen in the past few months - page 5. (Read 12975 times)