Topic: Long term OIL - page 59. (Read 91718 times)

This is relevant to my point:

http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/28/investing/saudi-arabia-budget-oil-opec/index.html?sr=fbmoney122815saudi-arabia-budget-oil-opec0553PMVODtopLink&linkId=19946097

Saudi Arabia is being hurt by low oil prices, but in their calculation, they have determined they are better off long term by flooding out the higher cost producers now. They will respond rationally to the economics of the situation though. They can only skate on their cash reserves for so long. Eventually, they have to let the price of oil rise or start borrowing, and the capital markets will not be kind to a country that frittered away a huge reserve and is a desperate borrower, and the ratings agencies have already started to sound that warning bell, which is why I think Saudi Arabia is starting to curb energy subsidies and take other cost saving measures.

Oil production does not increase in the us lmao
The whole world except you agrees to that fact.

And it doesnt matter that oil production right now is higher then in 2010 because the oil price is at 36$ - a 11 year low - now...


It is important to show gullible noobs which hero and legendarys are complete morons and nutjobs - like you.
Else people like you put the bitcoin community in a light full of retards and conspiracy nutjobs.


Oh btw. Shale oil bonds in the US actually amount to a whopping 1.5 trillion $ it seems i will try to find more details.

It's actually less but 1.0 trillion is still a good number...(2013)

http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1503f.htm

Where is the total shale production chart since 2010-11 and till now? Should I repeat it again that the rig count is irrelevant as long as the US oil production increases (or stays roughly the same)?

A starred first, wow. If you know what that means, of course


No one urges you to reply to my posts in the first place. I guess you should find someone other to chase after, lol

I guess you need someone to explain it to you word for word....


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-latest-eia-report-tells-us-about-shale-oil-output-2015-11-10


You are quoting stuff that you neither understand nor read.
You are a moron that thinks books are retarded and google and wikipedia can replace a school/college education.

Go spam more bullshit to earn 10 cent per post.

"The Permian will continue its growth in November, EIA forecasts, with a 21,000-b/d rise to 2.03 million b/d", though

Did you read the texts yourself?


Expected decline of 93,000 b/d is mere 1.8% from the production of 5.12 million b/d (actually, no more than minor fluctuation). Still wanna talk about rig count going down by over 60%, and how it is related to shale plays total production and the total production of the whole US oil industry?

What about coming up with something more substantial?

It is not you lier.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/#tabs-summary-2

http://www.ogj.com/articles/2015/10/eia-us-shale-oil-output-to-drop-93-000-b-d-in-november.html

Summary of several eia reports.

It is total production that counts, stupid

There should be a worst and stupid poster rank/award just for you

They are all good that is why the fracking rig count is down by over 60% and still decreasing?

Also ignoring all my sources and citing yourself no one. Congratz.

You don't know a thing. Just accept this

First, frackers have hedged their production for years ahead. They essentially sold their future output at high prices ($60-70 per barrel), so, in a sense, they don't care. Second, their debts have already been socialized by the banks which issued that debt. It is an American taxpayer who is subsidizing the fracking industry...

And last but not least, the fracking industry is not all US oil production

What? The US wants to shoot themself in the foot?

We gonna see a repeat of 2008 if oil price goes a bit lower.
The oil industry is heavenly in debt - alone last year the fracking industry got 250 billion $ and their production cost ranges from 40-60$ per barrel.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/an-oklahoma-of-oil-at-risk-as-debt-shackles-u-s-shale-drillers
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21672253-shakeout-finally-hitting-debt-strapped-shale-producers-debt-and-alive


Tl.dr.: no just no

You only see a small part of the bigger picture. Not that I see the whole of it, but evidently my view grasps a larger part of it. The Saudis are the US puppets, all their cash reserves are in the US dollars and held by the US funds. Everyone is free to decide for themselves how "sovereign" their funds actually are thereby, but the events now transpiring (e.g. lifting the 40 years old ban on oil exports) leave little-to-no illusion that the US is interested in bringing the price of oil as low as possible. Why they are doing this seems to be pretty evident too. So the Saudis will pump as long as Uncle Sam deems it beneficial...

For himself, not the Saudi royal family, of course

Loooong term being the operative word. I agree with you that oil eventually rebounds. It's cyclical, and has always been cyclical, and people with short time horizons or investment objects always think that the current price of oil is the new paradigm, but history has repeatedly proved them wrong. Oil is likely to stay relatively low for the next 3 years, and trying to project longer than 5 years out is a crapshoot at best. China is complicated, and undergoing inner turmoil as the government tries to shift people to a consumption-based economy. This could work wonderfully and add to global economic growth and help oil rebound, or it could end disastrously, as China is currently pumping their stock market and the ensuing bubble pop could wipe out a lot of wealth in China and cause a major recession, which could further cull the demand for oil. Long term, oil isn't where I'd want to invest, personally, because there are better options in equities.

Oil pipeline operators are actually a good place to straddle the middle, as they've been whacked along with every other oil-based company, but actually make the vast majority of their money from operating the pipelines that move oil, so they make money no matter the price of oil. They're like a tollbooth operator, collecting fees for moving oil around the country. The fact that they've been sold off because oil is a scary topic right now presents a great investment opportunity. I like Spectra Energy for this reason (ticker: SE).

Saudis are not immune to laws of economics. They can only run a loss on oil production until they've exhausted their cash reserves and can't borrow money any more. They can sustain losses longer than a business can, and they're trying to flood the market to force out high cost producers in the US and Canada. But they will cut back long before they're exhausted their cash reserves. They're playing a game of chicken, but they're still rational, and they'll respond to accordingly when forced to.


This is absolutely true. Oil isn't going anywhere in a major way in the next 100 years. Every developing economy will be building wealth off the back of oil. It is one of the most energy efficient sources on the planet (price:energy output), which is why it has come to dominate the world energy market.

Solar panel would be the awesome solutions of all the power of the world or something nature friendly. We see now that a lot of country don't have snow and that comes with global warming. I am kinda sad that they are no snow. So OIL later won't be profitable I think.

Yes. Solar panel, hydro power, wind farm will generate more energy than ever. The oil will be mainly used in transportation and petrochemical in the future, not to generate electricity.

it's only mean that no one is thinking that the low volume is good for speculate more, maybe there is an increase demand in other sectors

it's very difficult that multiple market get a pump at the same time

People talking about alternatives to oil arising due to oil falling in price don't have a clue that low oil prices beat the shit out of these alternatives

I think oil will rise on the long term, 35$ oil per barrel is not sustainable.

Oil has gone down quite a bit recently... With no signs of going up atm.