Topic: Lotteries and possibility vs. probability - page 13. (Read 6269 times)

For any addicted gambler that is fed up of using money for gambling, we can start in something new by having a related gambling experience through lottery which we can apply freely and wait for our luck to come, though in most cases, lottery is not thesame as gambling whereby you make decisions on yourself as to how the whole show should be, you only follow instructions to apply for it and wait for the result to comes out if lucky, those who always wish earnings is their target through gambling can try applying for lottery to increase their chances of making money instead of waiting on gambling alone.

If what we are talking about is the same as in the thread namely lottery the results will be different from sports betting and this difference is also very significant.
Whether it is the method of analysis or the results that can be obtained are never the same.

And I sure anyone who likes lottery betting can understand this difference and they always use more methods in making predictions because the lottery family is almost the same as NRG which is always random and there is no clear certainty.

You wont really be needing that technicality kind of thinking on trying out to differentiate in between lottery and and sports betting on which it is really that obvious that with lotteries then you would really be definitely be that relying with luck for you to win which is totally opposite when you do deal with sports betting.Yes, it does need that luck too yet there's no such thing about assurance on winning a gambling game
whether strategic or pure luck but the level of luck you would really be needing which would really be according or depends on what kind of game you are dealing with.

The bad thing about betting on lottery is on the time that you wont really be making yourself having lost control on what you are doing. On the time that you would really be betting like a mad man or compromising too much money that you do have on buying lottery tickets then this is where things turns out to be mess. If you do just simply realize on what are the odds or chances for you to be able to hit up the jackpot then
you would really be having that realistic approach towards it. There's no point on buying tons of tickets if you wont really be that lucky enough then you would really be just still
simply misses out on hitting up those combinations.

The best approach is that only spend on the amount which you can afford to lose whether $1-5 per day but this vary on how much you do earn or income you do have
because in some places or countries which $5 amount is already significant on day to day living considering that $10 is their main day salary or pay then
you would really be needing to adjust.

I told before that i was in group with real sport prediction. It wasn`t fake group, that we see often around us. I made from 4 to 20 bets per day but i didn`t count the winrate. And i don`t think that it can be a success criteria. We can win odds 1.2-1.5 four times per day without losing or we can lose three times and win one time 10 odd. And the profit would be higher with big odd.
Difference(or ratio) between deposit and withdraw can be more interesting.

I frankly do not see the possibility in the metrics with which their analysis or conclusion is drawn. Even the best of analysts, when it comes to gambling, can have his professionalism challenged with the outcome of a speculation.
The gambling companies are in it for business and if everything goes as a professional analyst speculates then, it's only a matter of time before there is no business for the company.

Intuition tells me that too about sports betting, but it would be really interesting to know about research on this topic which proves that there is a real correlation between knowledge and gains, and the weight of skill in the outcome (I heard once that, in poker, skill is 80% of the probability to win, blackjack 60%, and so on, but I'm not sure about, for example, football bets).

My opinion is that we tend to overestimate the weight of knowledge in sports betting. In the end, our knowledge on sports is based on news that are available for everybody, so it has to be hard to be competitive when this info is public, left aside that luck plays a major role too in big wins, while "sure" bets (if there is anything like that) have low odds in exchange.

Absolutely, your differentiation between the mechanics of lottery and sports betting is spot on. The lottery, as you rightfully highlighted, stands on the sheer pillar of luck; theres no strategy, no planning, just a wild spin of fate. Sports betting, on the contrary, is a fusion - a concoction of luck and a deep-rooted understanding of the game. But, here lies the problem: if sports betting is partially based on knowledge, then is it genuinely gambling in its purest form?

Now, on the preference between sports betting and the lottery, its a spectrum of knowledge and ignorance. Some delve into the world of sports betting because they feel a sense of control due to their expertise. Others shy away because of their lack of sports knowledge, and the lottery provides that equalized platform where everyone, knowledgeable or not, stands the same chance. Its an arena where understanding is secondary, and luck reigns supreme.

You are right, but there are still some points to note also, and first of it is that, Lottery as you partially said is a pure luck-based game, it does not require any analyzing or brain works, on like sports betting that is part luck based and part knowledge based. this simply means that, on one hand, sports betting requires the gambler to have a good knowledge of the sports he or she is betting on to have a good chance of winning his or her bets, and on the other hand, the gambler still require to be lucky to predict correctly; the outcome of the sports he or she is betting on.

Coming back to reasons why some people will prefer to bet on sports while others will prefer to play the lottery, i would say that one other reason different from that which you have said is that, some people actually do not know anything about sports, that is, they have zero knowledge of sports and as such, it's hard for them to know which team to bet on to win a match, so instead of them just blindly guessing without any facts to aid them, they will prefer to just play the lottery where they need no knowledge of anything other than to just rely on luck for a possible win.

We could call it "faith" when people dream beyond seen evidence, and although it's not anything quantitative, we must agree that it has great value (in terms of power if we talk about religious faith, and in terms of money if we look at the figures spent in national lotteries). I am myself a "believer" in the latter, and I hope (but I don't really expect) to let you all know soon that I retired early because of several millions won after guessing the lucky numbers and I still know that it is more probable to be hit by a lightning twice before it happens, but fortunately my bias is strong enough to make me quite happy in exchange of only 1€ at a time (not even weekly).

That is the biggest mistake of gambler who chases victory by trying to increase the odds in more stupid way namely buying more tickets but without realizing it they have entered into method that really doesn't make sense and even has the opportunity to lose larger amount.
We have to provide understanding to gamblers like this so that in the future there will be no more stupid methods used by most gamblers especially those we already know.
This will only make them fall into poverty or even really not have any money if it persists for long period of time.

But this method is much better than buying lottery tickets in large quantities because you only need to repeat the numbers for each purchase, you only need to spend money on buying one or two tickets without needing to spend more money.
And this method has proven to be effective for gamblers who have confidence and patience in what they have to bet on this has been very popular for long time among lottery gamblers where I live.

Forget the fun of buying lottery tickets because no one has fun buying lottery tickets and it better to just test your luck or try something new than betting on the lottery.

Yes, in fact things are not like that, being positive is Always good for me, but I think that here what should not be confused is positivism with Realism , we have to be positive but we can never walk on a cloud, because otherwise, How is a person going to maintain Himself if Everything is false ? So things when they are about how to do and how to behave in a casino are Different , because as I have said in many children, when it comes to casino games , the issue here is that it is about money, and about time. things will change, there are people who when it has to do with money their attitude and skills change, that is something that Cannot be denied, because no one wants to lose money, not even 1 dollar because it is something natural , things are like that They are about how to make the money yield more, or how to make it multiply, and with just 1 dollar it is a Complete bet on Something, or some Bet, even with one dollar you can Bet.

It cannot be denied that when there are things that can be quite strong, Such as having enough opposition to enter a casino and win, that is a thought that many have and it is something that I cannot deny, no matter how much people are told. Be careful with the casino, the casino always consumes money, in the casino you cannot win big, the casino is dangerous, when things are like this it is difficult for a person to understand it, it is difficult , that's why when people who are necvias get their good surprise thanks to the casino system, that's when they stop and then they start to hear the caonsjoe, they want to get the money back, and all those Effects that it gives to people when they lose, they don't They realize that the casino is about having fun, that it is money that you have no problem losing, that the only thing that remains is fun, that is what one should always refer to, but like the majority of people in the world He learns the hard way, because it is something that cannot be Avoided.

Gambling on lottery or sports are all the same and we should consider them as both luck based and we even have a higher chance of football bets more than we have in the lottery due to the possibility to easily analyze football games than we do have in the lottery since with lottery what and all we have is just the number and our luck to win,  but football bets is not the same and some times we have and made accurate predictions based on our analysis of the team previous games.

Why some people still prefer the lottery winning to other gambling winning because of the possible total amount,  some lotteries can transform the ticket holders' lives overnight and the reason why many still go for the lottery such as the American Lottery and the rest.

Having those pools then it does really increase that odds but really that still significant and also not all would really be  that preferred nor do like on dividing those prizes on the time that there's a hit but rather they would really be preferring on soloing those winnings rather than it would really be divided by each member of that group or to those who had pooled their tickets.If you arent really that
minding about those dividing of winning then it wont really be that much of an issue for you then you could really go ahead with those pools but if you dont like their terms then it would really be your choice on going solo. Somewhat even myself doesnt really like on doing those group bets but rather liking to win up the game on doing solo hits which you could really be able to solo
the prize money.  Possibilities is really that almost really an impossible thing but as long it doesnt hit up that 0% chance then you could really always having the odds on hitting those combinations
but dont expect that much or being that too positive because having that kind of approach would definitely be that pushing you on becoming that too desperate and optimistic which would really be
always ending up on great disappointment.

Lotteries are indeed probabilistic in nature. There is ideally no guarantee and one of the biggest motivators is the evidence of one who has won and then the dream of winning sets in.

Often times people tend to dream beyond the point of seen evidence and imagined even more, this makes them damn whatever probability exists and face the possibility, when the equation is actually on the reverse.

We also cannot overemphasize the need for people to know that probabilistic systems involve a high degree of quantitative information and high degree of uncertainty.

We're juggling the magical idea that more tickets increase win likelihood. Like saying more fortune cookies will bring more luck! Lets add some maths to this creative and amusing idea.

Whether you buy one, ten, or 100 tickets, the odds of winning scarcely change. Like emptying the ocean with a bucket—honorable, pleasant, but pointless! The temptation to win is irresistible, like eating another piece of chocolate cake after having two. 🍰

How about a friendly lottery pool instead? Gather, dreamers and hopefuls, everyone contributing a small amount, buying a batch of tickets, and sharing the prize (or, more likely, the thrill of possibility)! It lightens the voyage financially and creates a social gala where dreams, stories, and what-ifs are exchanged with mutual fun. A victory in companionship, shared ambitions, and maybe even lottery!

About the first idea, buying more tickets gives you more probabilities to win (in fact, buying two tickets gives you exactly double the probabilities compared to having bought only one). So, although in the end you are right that it doesn't make sense to buy many tickets, the reasoning behind it is wrong.

On the other hand, about always buying the same numbers as a method proven to be effective enough to win...   I'm sorry to tell you that ethereumhunter is right and random numbers have the same probability to win. In fact, by buying random numbers you avoid falling into magical thinking, and keep your mind cold.

Buying lottery tickets does not increase your chances of winning. But people still think that way and buy lottery tickets in large quantities. They think and hope that a large number of tickets can help them win the jackpot because with a large number of lottery tickets, there is a possibility that one of the lottery tickets will come out as the winner, even though that's not how it works because to be a winner of the lottery you have to have luck in getting rid of all your competitors. That could be wrong, but not so for people who are used to buying lottery tickets. They will buy more lottery tickets.

Chasing the jackpot is very difficult and only a few people can win the jackpot. We must be able to buy tickets with the same number because many people also have the same wishes as us. But they should buy random numbers because we will never know which number will be the winner. And if we can buy that random number, we can be the lottery winner. But be careful in buying those lottery tickets because they can cost you a lot of money.

It's better to use the lottery as entertainment and only buy enough lottery tickets so we don't use too much money. Indeed, many people keep buying lottery tickets but have yet to manage to win.

But actually buying more lottery tickets doesn't mean it will increase your chances of winning or even getting the jackpot because it all depends on the luck of each gambler and many gamblers have managed to win just by buying one or two lottery tickets.
Thinking of buying more tickets is wrong decision and anyone can become challenged and then use all the money to buy lottery tickets.

If you are chasing the jackpot then it is better to always buy the same numbers every time so sooner or later you will definitely come out and be able to win it and several people have proven that this method is effective enough to win.
But still as I said sooner or later there is no definite time when these numbers will actually come out.

Togel is complicated bet and not single gambler has been able to solve the lottery number algorithm so it is natural that lottery bet winners often use their winnings just for fun because I also understand how they feel when they win.

And, even with slots, there is the belief that the game follows some kind of recognizable pattern that some "hunters" try to predict. At least in my country it is said that the machine is "hot", as there was some kind of skill or way to control the outcome, and not pure chance. There is even an urban legend which states that some Chinese men take profit of that knowledge and make money from slot machines after other players "heated" them.

We have games that have high chances of your luck playing out such as slot as ever young mentioned,  but we can't rely on luck for all the games most especially games that require expertise to win and control their possible outcome,  although there still some few elements of luck between and that makes them dual games responsibility and that makes it fair enough and same time help relived the burden on one single approach to winning be it in the slot,  dice or even football speculations.

Even in football staking following the odds stake you bet and thereafter relying on the luck factors to win those games also makes you more vulnerable and at risk of losing because when it comes to football,  analysis of the team and games plays a vital role.