Lotteries and possibility vs. probability - page 16.

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Quote from: Porfirii on June 23, 2023, 11:22:41 AM

I have recently read an interesting essay on this topic, but it was already explained it to me a few years ago.

The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

Although there are extreme cases that get addicted to lotteries, this is quite uncommon if I'm not wrong, because, if you are not paying for the probability but for the possibility, a bet of 1 USD is enough to buy said possibility.

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

Here in our country, there are many of our compatriots who bet on the lottery because they see it as a hope for the fulfillment of their dreams of getting out of the poverty that they are following. The others here have been betting for decades; they have numbers that have been taken care of for several years but still do not win.

And the others who get the jackpot in the lotto 15 years or 20 years, the others who take care of the number, they estimate always a combination of their children's birthday and their birthday. That's what they usually do before they win the lottery; they patiently wait in line to just bet on the lotto, and it's worth it because those who become lotto winners are lucky.

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Quote from: Awaklara on October 06, 2023, 09:02:14 PM

Quote from: khaled0111 on October 06, 2023, 06:58:21 PM

Quote from: pawanjain on October 06, 2023, 11:18:05 AM

Actually it is. I don't know about your locality but there are local shops in here which provide lotteries and there's no way to verify if those are real.
If you win the lottery your lottery number gets displayed in the newspaper but who knows that the number we get are not fake.

Unfortunately, you are correct. There is no way for the player to be sure the game is fair and he hasn't been cheated. I never heard of a lottery game that uses a provably fair system and not sure if such one exists.
The only thing you can do is to play with famous and big companies which are less likely to cheat. You need to trust the game organizer and hope they will not manipulate the results.

no one knows whether the results are manipulated or not. This is a game, if we happen to be lucky then we will win. and if not, just think we're unlucky and can only keep betting until we wait for our luck to come.
we can only trust the company, and thousands or even millions of gamblers also bet on luck. no company wants to lose money. they win some, but gain more than others. that's what happened.

That's the reason why I suggest my father not to waste much in such lotteries. If they were genuine then I wouldn't stop them since there is no way to verify it I just suggest them sometimes to not waste money on it.
Recently we had a talk on this topic and he mentioned that he has stopped those lotteries and now puts money only in government authorized lotteries.
At least that is better than these local shops.

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Quote from: mak013 on October 07, 2023, 02:59:45 AM

Quote from: Porfirii on October 06, 2023, 11:51:39 AM

Quote from: mak013 on October 04, 2023, 02:40:50 AM

In the lottery there are fixed quantity of the winners(or fixed prize) and lots of participators. In sport betting everybody can choose the winner. Even if you bet with closed eyes - there are 3 results and your chances 33%.
And one more important thing. In the lottery the prize consists of money of the gamblers. In the sport betting - casino pays.

Sorry to disagree, but this is like saying that as you can be blind or not, you have 50% chances of being blind. Another think is that you like betting into sports and you want to believe that this is true, but reality is much more complicated than that. Not to talk about your next sentence (yes, casino pays, but with the money earned from other players in different games, so the prize consists of money of whom?).

The reason why lottery is harder is because the prize is also much bigger. Nobody will get rich if his team wins the match by spending just a few bucks.

I`m talking about situation when we don`t think about win and the odd and bet on one of three results - two wins and draw. So the win chance is about 33%. If we are talking about lottery - win chance is about 1/10mln. Even if we are talking about prizes like ticket price - it will be about 5-10%(depends on lottery).
About casino pays - the odds doesn`t depends on the number of bettors, so it doesn`t matter how many gamblers lost money in this casino before(and there are new casino, that haven`t gamblers money yet). And the lottery calculates how much money they got from tickets and after it calculate the prizes.

Last week i won the bet with the 13 odd. And it is not the only bet i`ve made. In lottery such win is possible for less the 0.1%

I understand your point of view mak013, it is simply that we are looking at different sides of the same coin. And I agree with you that skill can help a little bit in sports bets, while it has zero effect in lotteries, but the fact that the casino determines the odds and is more skilful than most players makes the importance of the skill in this kind of bettings negligible.

In other games, for example, when you bet that the outcome will be bigger than 1 in a range of 1-100, you have (not really, but let's make it easy) 99% of chances to win. But the reward is 0.01, so you have to play 100 times to double your initial money, so it is not a 99% chance of winning anymore. The same happens in sports: if the favourite team has about 1/4 odds of winning, you'll have to bet four times, if I'm not wrong, to double your money, and chances are that you lose at least once before it happens. Your skill is not usually better than common knowledge, and odds are calculated a bit better than what common knowledge says.

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Quote from: ethereumhunter on October 07, 2023, 01:34:38 AM

Quote from: shivansps on October 06, 2023, 12:17:07 PM

Quote from: Findingnemo on June 23, 2023, 02:09:01 PM

People who bet on lottery don't really have anything other than their pure superstition or instinct or we simply call it as luck and as we all know if someone win that it's going to be a life changing amount for them even half of the amount nearly cut for taxes in most parts of the world.

Lottery bettors sre so addictive and since the bet amount is tiny it won't cause them financial danger unless they get psyched and do something to outsmart the system.

Agree. People who are even addicted to the lottery, if such a thing exists at all, do not take much risk, since the amount they spend every month or every week is not so large and cannot significantly affect anything, that is, their quality of life will not change for the worse. different from people who are addicted to casinos and gambling. But in return for this little money they receive such a strong feeling as hope. Hope can do a lot of positive things in the life of every person.

And because the ticket prices are cheap, this is what makes them keep buying lottery tickets, especially since they also really hope they can become lottery winners one day. They know that playing the lottery requires luck because it is a luck-based gambling game, but they can accept it and keep buying lottery tickets until they can win one day. And it is better to have a budget to buy lottery tickets even though the price is cheap but with that budget, they can estimate how many lottery tickets they can buy. And the hope of winning the lottery keeps them buying tickets.

There are some lottery players out there who actually believe that the number of tickets one owns will raise their chances of winning, just like we see on Freebitco in our lottery page where they tell us the number of tickets we own, the total number of tickets of every player put together, and then our chances of winning.

There are some gamblers who think that winning a lottery depends on how many tickets one owns, but unfortunately for those with a lot of money to spend, and fortunately for those with not so much money, winning the lottery does not have to do with the number of tickets one owns or bought, if it was calculated by the number of ticket one owns, then it simply means its no longer a luck based game, but a game that depends on how much money owns..

We can draw our examples from freebitco lottery system, one of the lottery games I've come to trust honestly.

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Quote from: Porfirii on October 06, 2023, 11:51:39 AM

Quote from: mak013 on October 04, 2023, 02:40:50 AM

In the lottery there are fixed quantity of the winners(or fixed prize) and lots of participators. In sport betting everybody can choose the winner. Even if you bet with closed eyes - there are 3 results and your chances 33%.
And one more important thing. In the lottery the prize consists of money of the gamblers. In the sport betting - casino pays.

Sorry to disagree, but this is like saying that as you can be blind or not, you have 50% chances of being blind. Another think is that you like betting into sports and you want to believe that this is true, but reality is much more complicated than that. Not to talk about your next sentence (yes, casino pays, but with the money earned from other players in different games, so the prize consists of money of whom?).

The reason why lottery is harder is because the prize is also much bigger. Nobody will get rich if his team wins the match by spending just a few bucks.

I`m talking about situation when we don`t think about win and the odd and bet on one of three results - two wins and draw. So the win chance is about 33%. If we are talking about lottery - win chance is about 1/10mln. Even if we are talking about prizes like ticket price - it will be about 5-10%(depends on lottery).
About casino pays - the odds doesn`t depends on the number of bettors, so it doesn`t matter how many gamblers lost money in this casino before(and there are new casino, that haven`t gamblers money yet). And the lottery calculates how much money they got from tickets and after it calculate the prizes.

Last week i won the bet with the 13 odd. And it is not the only bet i`ve made. In lottery such win is possible for less the 0.1%

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Quote from: shivansps on October 06, 2023, 12:17:07 PM

Quote from: Findingnemo on June 23, 2023, 02:09:01 PM

People who bet on lottery don't really have anything other than their pure superstition or instinct or we simply call it as luck and as we all know if someone win that it's going to be a life changing amount for them even half of the amount nearly cut for taxes in most parts of the world.

Lottery bettors sre so addictive and since the bet amount is tiny it won't cause them financial danger unless they get psyched and do something to outsmart the system.

Agree. People who are even addicted to the lottery, if such a thing exists at all, do not take much risk, since the amount they spend every month or every week is not so large and cannot significantly affect anything, that is, their quality of life will not change for the worse. different from people who are addicted to casinos and gambling. But in return for this little money they receive such a strong feeling as hope. Hope can do a lot of positive things in the life of every person.

And because the ticket prices are cheap, this is what makes them keep buying lottery tickets, especially since they also really hope they can become lottery winners one day. They know that playing the lottery requires luck because it is a luck-based gambling game, but they can accept it and keep buying lottery tickets until they can win one day. And it is better to have a budget to buy lottery tickets even though the price is cheap but with that budget, they can estimate how many lottery tickets they can buy. And the hope of winning the lottery keeps them buying tickets.

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Quote from: khaled0111 on October 06, 2023, 06:58:21 PM

Quote from: pawanjain on October 06, 2023, 11:18:05 AM

Actually it is. I don't know about your locality but there are local shops in here which provide lotteries and there's no way to verify if those are real.
If you win the lottery your lottery number gets displayed in the newspaper but who knows that the number we get are not fake.

Unfortunately, you are correct. There is no way for the player to be sure the game is fair and he hasn't been cheated. I never heard of a lottery game that uses a provably fair system and not sure if such one exists.
The only thing you can do is to play with famous and big companies which are less likely to cheat. You need to trust the game organizer and hope they will not manipulate the results.

no one knows whether the results are manipulated or not. This is a game, if we happen to be lucky then we will win. and if not, just think we're unlucky and can only keep betting until we wait for our luck to come.
we can only trust the company, and thousands or even millions of gamblers also bet on luck. no company wants to lose money. they win some, but gain more than others. that's what happened.

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Quote from: pawanjain on October 06, 2023, 11:18:05 AM

Actually it is. I don't know about your locality but there are local shops in here which provide lotteries and there's no way to verify if those are real.
If you win the lottery your lottery number gets displayed in the newspaper but who knows that the number we get are not fake.

Unfortunately, you are correct. There is no way for the player to be sure the game is fair and he hasn't been cheated. I never heard of a lottery game that uses a provably fair system and not sure if such one exists.
The only thing you can do is to play with famous and big companies which are less likely to cheat. You need to trust the game organizer and hope they will not manipulate the results.

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Quote from: shivansps on October 06, 2023, 12:17:07 PM

Quote from: Findingnemo on June 23, 2023, 02:09:01 PM

People who bet on lottery don't really have anything other than their pure superstition or instinct or we simply call it as luck and as we all know if someone win that it's going to be a life changing amount for them even half of the amount nearly cut for taxes in most parts of the world.

Lottery bettors sre so addictive and since the bet amount is tiny it won't cause them financial danger unless they get psyched and do something to outsmart the system.

Agree. People who are even addicted to the lottery, if such a thing exists at all, do not take much risk, since the amount they spend every month or every week is not so large and cannot significantly affect anything, that is, their quality of life will not change for the worse. different from people who are addicted to casinos and gambling. But in return for this little money they receive such a strong feeling as hope. Hope can do a lot of positive things in the life of every person.

I haven't hard any case of gamblers being addicted to lottery, who get addicted to selecting odds numbers., is not like other gambling games that contains some level of exciting feelings and other aspect fhat make the game highly incorporating to the extent of making if addciting to players who may want to play the game persistently.

Al though some other people may see lottery rewards as worthy to pursue at all times and that could make them want to become avoidably active in lottery games all to win big from them.

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The whole long discussion about the lottery and it’s winning chances, but no one discussing the fact that they are made with complete strategy. The companies who make them will always have high chances of getting the money in their pockets. They only share tiny amount of money that is raised during the lottery selling. That’s the beauty of this game. Peeps wanna get rich and thus everyone is buying it for that tiniest chance of winning. Imagine only few peeps win it as per the lottery ranking and most of the money goes in the pockets of owner. Honestly they are the one who’s benefiting from this System. There is no way anyone can predict the entire lottery chance. The winning ticket could lying around in any shop around the country. Crazy odds, just have fun buying and getting adrenaline pump when they publish the number.

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Quote from: Findingnemo on June 23, 2023, 02:09:01 PM

People who bet on lottery don't really have anything other than their pure superstition or instinct or we simply call it as luck and as we all know if someone win that it's going to be a life changing amount for them even half of the amount nearly cut for taxes in most parts of the world.

Lottery bettors sre so addictive and since the bet amount is tiny it won't cause them financial danger unless they get psyched and do something to outsmart the system.

Agree. People who are even addicted to the lottery, if such a thing exists at all, do not take much risk, since the amount they spend every month or every week is not so large and cannot significantly affect anything, that is, their quality of life will not change for the worse. different from people who are addicted to casinos and gambling. But in return for this little money they receive such a strong feeling as hope. Hope can do a lot of positive things in the life of every person.

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Quote from: mak013 on October 04, 2023, 02:40:50 AM

Quote from: Fivestar4everMVP on October 03, 2023, 04:02:17 AM

Quote from: mak013 on October 03, 2023, 03:27:58 AM

It is so, but anyway you have to agree the rules and doesn`t matter if it rules of the casino, or of the lottery. The casino decides what odds they give and the lottery decides how many tickets can win big prize and how big it will be.
But in the lottery your chances are really small and mostly you can win about the ticket price. And in the sport betting you can easily win odds about 1.3-1.6. Several such bets per day and you can triple your bank daily.

Well, the only reason I think why lottery is harder to win than sports betting is probably due to the fact that lotteries always have alot of participants buying millions if not billions of lottery tickets, coupled with the fact that lottery is a complete luck based game, so at the end of the day, it is only those that are lucky that end up winning.

Sports betting on the other hand is a bit of knowledge and a bit of luck based game, your knowledge of sports is what will increase your chances of wining a bet, while luck sees that you actually wins the bet.

In the lottery there are fixed quantity of the winners(or fixed prize) and lots of participators. In sport betting everybody can choose the winner. Even if you bet with closed eyes - there are 3 results and your chances 33%.
And one more important thing. In the lottery the prize consists of money of the gamblers. In the sport betting - casino pays.

Sorry to disagree, but this is like saying that as you can be blind or not, you have 50% chances of being blind. Another think is that you like betting into sports and you want to believe that this is true, but reality is much more complicated than that. Not to talk about your next sentence (yes, casino pays, but with the money earned from other players in different games, so the prize consists of money of whom?).

The reason why lottery is harder is because the prize is also much bigger. Nobody will get rich if his team wins the match by spending just a few bucks.

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Quote from: khaled0111 on October 05, 2023, 05:44:01 PM

Quote from: pawanjain on October 05, 2023, 11:35:58 AM

..

It's not fake and he has the right to dream to win big. There is nothing wrong about that.
The only problem is that he should understand that his chances of winning the jackpot will always remain the same as long as he participate s in the lotteries every now and then.
Yoy need to use maths and probabilities to explain the maths to him.

Actually it is. I don't know about your locality but there are local shops in here which provide lotteries and there's no way to verify if those are real.
If you win the lottery your lottery number gets displayed in the newspaper but who knows that the number we get are not fake.

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Quote from: Wiwo on October 05, 2023, 05:18:49 PM

Quote from: mak013 on October 04, 2023, 02:40:50 AM

In the lottery there are fixed quantity of the winners(or fixed prize) and lots of participators. In sport betting everybody can choose the winner. Even if you bet with closed eyes - there are 3 results and your chances 33%.
And one more important thing. In the lottery the prize consists of money of the gamblers. In the sport betting - casino pays.

Really I thought both sportbet and lotteries are both hosted by casinos and at that the casino settles all the bets rewards and payouts, I never knew that lottery rewards are paid with other gamblers' own money, but then how do those that pick the lucky numbers and hit a jackpot in lottery get paid if it the money from the buying of lottery tickets buy other gambler is what is used to settle payments in the lottery?

because most lottery tickets are priced at such a low amount and cumulatively such an amount won't round up to make up for the total lottery winning amount in some cases.

In my country there is a law, that limits winning percent. So the lottery owner can`t make prizes less than 50% price of the sold tickets. In casino there is RTP, but i don`t sure that it works in all games in casino. Anyway, as i remember, normal RTP is more than 90%. So you can compare casino and the lottery.
About sport betting. As i know, the odd are based on the teams statistics and don`t depends on gamblers money. Of course it can be recalculated due to sum big bets, but firstly they don`t have any information about bets.

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Quote from: khaled0111 on October 05, 2023, 05:44:01 PM

Quote from: pawanjain on October 05, 2023, 11:35:58 AM

..

It's not fake and he has the right to dream to win big. There is nothing wrong about that.
The only problem is that he should understand that his chances of winning the jackpot will always remain the same as long as he participate s in the lotteries every now and then.
Yoy need to use maths and probabilities to explain the maths to him.

Dont make yourself that expect too much because if you do then for sure this is where issues would really be molding or could happen because you would really be making yourself that impulsive
and would really be committing out those kind of mistakes on which you shouldnt have done that in the first place. Odds on winning or hitting up the lottery is really that close to impossible
and if you are really that aiming on having those kind of hits then better not to make yourself that hopeful or anticipating for winning it because it would really be just that creating
that kind of frustration once those winning combinations doesnt really match up yours and this is something that very common to happen.

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Quote from: pawanjain on October 05, 2023, 11:35:58 AM

..

It's not fake and he has the right to dream to win big. There is nothing wrong about that.
The only problem is that he should understand that his chances of winning the jackpot will always remain the same as long as he participate s in the lotteries every now and then.
Yoy need to use maths and probabilities to explain the maths to him.

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Quote from: mak013 on October 04, 2023, 02:40:50 AM

In the lottery there are fixed quantity of the winners(or fixed prize) and lots of participators. In sport betting everybody can choose the winner. Even if you bet with closed eyes - there are 3 results and your chances 33%.
And one more important thing. In the lottery the prize consists of money of the gamblers. In the sport betting - casino pays.

Really I thought both sportbet and lotteries are both hosted by casinos and at that the casino settles all the bets rewards and payouts, I never knew that lottery rewards are paid with other gamblers' own money, but then how do those that pick the lucky numbers and hit a jackpot in lottery get paid if it the money from the buying of lottery tickets buy other gambler is what is used to settle payments in the lottery?

because most lottery tickets are priced at such a low amount and cumulatively such an amount won't round up to make up for the total lottery winning amount in some cases.

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Quote from: Quidat on October 04, 2023, 01:59:39 PM

Quote from: maydna on October 04, 2023, 09:52:16 AM

~snip~

Budget is always been that crucial.Dont go overboard on making use of the amount which are really that intended for making use on your daily needs or something that do talks about emergency funds.
We know that lottery odds of winning is really that almost close to impossible on which it would really be just that so normal that you should really be only making use of the amount on which you can afford to lose. Never ever make yourself that becoming that too impulsive when it comes to things because if you do make yourself that way too positive towards winning then it would really be creating that kind of desperation on which it would really be just that normal that you would really be spending up more because you do have that kind of mindset or positivity towards lottery that you would really be able to hit up that jackpot.

On the time that you would really be missing out or losing those winning moments then it would really be creating that kind of impulsive feeling. We must really be that still careful
on becoming that addicted even if we do say that betting on lottery or buying tickets is cheap but if the amount used or purchased is already that significant
or something that big then this is an another situation which you should really be minding on.

You are right. Allocating a budget for gambling is necessary so that we don't exceed the limits. This also applies to lottery games, and even though we may have to wait a long time to win the jackpot, the budget allocation is useful so that we can regularly buy lottery tickets. And because the lottery relies on luck, we should consider buying lottery tickets as entertainment and wait for the results. Usually, people who don't expect to win in the near future get lucky because they don't have any burdens and buy the lottery ticket for fun.

Yes, buying lottery tickets can cause gambling addiction for us, so we have to be careful in buying the number of tickets. Don't let us buy large quantities at one time because that will disrupt the budget allocation that we have set for buying lottery tickets. It's better if we really follow the limits we set so that we can buy lottery tickets regularly.

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Quote from: bittraffic on June 23, 2023, 12:31:48 PM

When you buy, you always think of the possibility that when you wake up tomorrow you'll see your number on the papers. My old pa does it all the time to this day.

Nothing beats HOPE. It's the only thing that keeps the poor old 65-year-old man from buying tickets in hopes that he might save all the rest of his family from the hell hole we've been in all our lives. We wouldn't want to kill his dream of winning and it's almost like a habit of the old man to buy tickets, even allocate a few funds for it.

Even my dad has this crazy hope of winning a lottery. He buys it at regular intervals in the hope that he will big some day and live the rest of his life in luxury.
I don't want to kill his hope but I do advice him not to waste money in lotteries because I think buying local lotteries from shops are fake.

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Quote from: Fivestar4everMVP on October 03, 2023, 04:02:17 AM

the only reason I think why lottery is harder to win than sports betting is probably due to the fact that lotteries always have alot of participants buying millions if not billions of lottery tickets, coupled with the fact that lottery is a complete luck based game, so at the end of the day, it is only those that are lucky that end up winning.

That's not the only reason you think of but it's actually the only reason why it's not easy to win the main prize in a lottery, and we shouldn't really be comparing lotteries with sports bets because those are completely different things even though they are both a sort of gambling.

Quote from: Fivestar4everMVP on October 03, 2023, 04:02:17 AM

Sports betting on the other hand is a bit of knowledge and a bit of luck based game, your knowledge of sports is what will increase your chances of wining a bet, while luck sees that you actually wins the bet.

It's mostly knowledge and experience that increases your chances of winning in the sports betting industry. Luck does play its role, but it's not the only thing a person can be dependent on when they are placing bets on sports events unlike lotteries or gambling games where you don't do anything other than deciding the bet amount and pressing a button.

Topic: Lotteries and possibility vs. probability - page 16. (Read 6269 times)