Topic: Lotteries and possibility vs. probability - page 6. (Read 6291 times)

Well I don't know if you have Entered and had Experience in freebitco.in, but there Every time you enter and there are tickets for sale to win because it is something that can be Generated very frequently where many Participate , but it catches my attention how players will share too many Tickets , it is incredible, and of course the more you buy because the Chances are higher to win, but it is not guaranteed, in a lottery that uses 4 Figures to win it is very easy, as I said, my friend always everything Only days he plays that ticket , and Always Maintains his faith of winning , the truth is I see it as very, very difficult for him to win, I see it difficult , but even so he says that when he Wins , he will buy the house of his dreams , and this Lottery is Called Baloto in Colombia , but he maintains his faith in Winning , that is Something that I do not see well, in this case things can be very Difficult , because winning Among so many so many Tickets are Bought and the probabilities They are very close to winning but not Close Enough.

The funny thing about this is that lotteries are sometimes won by the person who buys 1 ticket, but many times no one wins because the chances are daily, and that is something very difficult to win, it also depends on the number of people there So they are playing in this order of ideas, things can happen like this and without any kind of Effort , sometimes it is a matter of mere luck, it doesn't matter, so that's why when we buy these tickets , we hand over the money. nothing, it's free, because winning in this lottery the psoblaides are very very Minimal , things can be like that when it Comes to this lottery, it can change for the Better if things go well, in another order of things , too You have to consider the faith that the person has in winning or not Winning , if it is a Person who is playing Every day, then it is something that will always maintain hope , we do not know when they can do things well and win Something , but the possibilities will Always be.

In fact, those who buy many tickets is because they are seeing it more like an investment than a bet. But according to maths, it is a terrible investment.

Looking at a bigger picture, in the long run those who buy millions of tickets should win more often. The problem is that the chances are still so small in terms of probability that it can only be seen in the very long run, with billions (trillions? more?) of bets. So, for an individual player, it is practically the same to buy 1 ticket than many, because the chances if they buy 10 tickets for example go from being hit 200 times by a lightning to 20, which won't happen either, but they spent ten times more. And if they buy 100 tickets, they won't be hit two times by a lightning either before winning. You follow me, right?

So tusandii and Fivestar4everMVP explained it very well, and more lottery tickets is never, IMO, a better option than just one.

Buying more tickets isn't guarantee you are going to win, sometimes with just a ticket, you turn out lucky enough and win a good sum of money. But then some people do buy multiple ticket just to increase their chances of winning even when they understand it's not a guarantee they win.

Luck is a very key factor in winning a lottery ticket, just like gambling, it's place can't be overly emphasised as most times it's the factor that gets the owners of the ticket turn out winners. Understanding the dynamics of lottery sometimes get you to be at a better position to win even without getting multiple tickets but even with multiple tickets and no knowledge your chances may still remain slim.  Just like regular gambling you need to have an idea of what the games are before placing reasonable stakes that will turn out profitable for you.

Your gave a very appropriate example and I'm sure most people here can understanding what you are saying about the fact thats the number of tickets we have will not provide any guarantee, even an almost small chances of getting a big jackpot.
I might also buy a lottery ticket but I hardly think about buying more ticket to get a bigger chances because I thinks if I playing the same slot base on luck, I rarely get a win, especially in the lottery it will definitely be very difficult so I choose to buy a ticket with small value just to try your luck.

In South America, in some countries, the lottery has almost become a national idea. Unfortunately, I don’t remember which country, probably even Colombia, but I’m afraid I’ll be wrong. So I watched a program, where people work in a mine every day and extract some kind of metal. This mine is located outside the city, but almost all the people in the city itself buy lottery tickets. They probably think that this will completely change their life and after winning they won’t have to work in the mine risking their lives. They are also influenced by the fact that everyone knows each other and if someone wins something insignificant, then everyone will know about it and think that they will be lucky next time.

There is an expression: “The lottery is a tax on stupidity.” But I cannot apply this to these poor people. They want to believe that a lucky ticket will change everything in their life, and if they didn’t have a lottery, they would have to invent one.

As for me, I don’t play the lottery, although I see how my relatives behave like the people in this story.

How hope and cost-benefit analysis interact is fascinating. It's cheap—$0.5 to $1 each day for most. But consider the long-term expense. I find it intriguing that people keep hoping despite poor odds. According to behavioral economics, this is a standard optimism bias. People often overestimate their chances of winning the lottery. It's about the thrill, the 'what if' situation, not just the money

However, consider sociological factors. Lower middle class people view the lottery as a communal experience, not just gambling. When the numbers are drawn, everyone holds their breath. It's not simply about winning odds. Imagine joining a community of dreamers bound by hope. In this context, the lottery becomes a communal rite rather than a bet

It is also true that they are used to every loss and still continue to buy lottery tickets until they really find the momentum where luck comes to give them the jackpot, plus the lottery is not bet that takes lot of money so they can accept every loss.
The average person drinking income is around $50 to $100 per week for those employees and buying the lottery may only cost $0.5 to $1 per day so this is not big loss.
Moreover, those who only bet on one provider who every week has three to four opening periods for lottery winners will be able to spend less on betting.

The lottery has become popular type of betting among lower middle class gamblers and even though the percentage chance of winning is very small, at least there is hope for those who bet and believe in the numbers on the ticket.
And all feelings of curiosity or waiting too long to win will be paid off when luck comes because the lottery is one of the bets that can make lot of money when you win even with small bet.

Dears, don't hesitate and use the scissors whenever you need it. It is a practice in line with the recommendations of the forum, which makes it much easier for others to follow the conversations that you are holding, and I don't think that anyone will feel offended if you cut the dispensable parts

Yes, the numbers do not favor this at all, whenever we are in the presence of any raffle or any lottery the numbers are something that fits when it comes to having a good probability, therefore when we are in any type of these events, we What we do or well what I do is buy to collaborate with them, because my chances are very low to win, and this is Something that is seen and is very obvious, for that reason when we buy lottery tickets we have to consider that we are competing against a very large probability of losing, it is the most that is recognized for it, so that is that investing in this you have to have a lot of faith, a lot of hope, and the truth is I do not recommend it, because if you buy it every day, well It is something that I prefer to invest in and buy in Bitcoin , because I know that the investment will grow, that is in my opinion the most profitable, if a person buys the ticket for 1 USD, if we have been there for days it is at most almost 365 USD, if that is put in Bitcoin, there is a good risk that it will rise to more than 400usd.

If we see it from that point of view, it is more profitable to invest 365usd than to lose it, because in one year you may not win the lottery, because the risks are there, but the probabilities do not help and we must manage all that, because it is money that It is investing , losing , gating , for that Reason we must always consider that things must be more Focused on not losing but winning, it is the most common.

Now it is the case that people always Remain with the belief that they are going to win , because if they win obviously the jackpot is worth it, and many are content to think and let themselves be carried away by hope, they do not care what they can , They only care about what they are participating in that lottery Every day, it is something Unusual , because I know that no one likes to lose money, but here they will sort of settle for that.

I think that this is why everyone who constantly buys lottery tickets and constantly loses gets so used to the fact that they  have lost again that they don’t get upset at all. 
This feeling of slight disappointment is immediately replaced by a new hope that the lottery player will be lucky next time.  And such a person buys the next lottery ticket and again waits for some time.  And so it goes on endlessly.  But I wouldn’t consider it some kind of addiction.  Rather, it’s just like a child’s naive game and waiting for the hope of a big win.  But we must admit that there are those who are very lucky. 

And this constantly stimulates the continuation of such a game.  In general, losing in the lottery cannot be compared in any way with losing in real gambling, where the emotions of losing are much stronger.

The issue one may finds with using a lottery is that they make the decisions by themselves and you cannot determine the what the outcome may be just as you could have done with gambling in playing bet all by yourself in making decisions through such means to either win or loose, but despite all the conditions in them all, some still finds their ways in to enjoy the best with gambling or lottery when they are next in line for its opportunity by making their way through winning.

Luck is all we do need doesnt matter if you are really that engaging with lotteries or other gambling common games that we do have available. It is one of the main factor on which it would really be determining whether you do win or not on the games that you are really that playing. Somewhat in terms of probabilities then we do know that lotteries are really having the slimmest % on which it is really that understandable considering on the prize that you would be potentially be able to win or hit up then it is really that normal that odds would really be that close to impossible. This is why it would be always better or really just that right that you wont really be hoping that much or being too positive towards lotteries on which we know that it cant really be just that possible to make those win on few tickets purchases unless if you do have
all the luck in the world then it could be possible but if not then better not to make yourself that too optimistic on things.

Both gambling games and lotteries require luck, and it's not like one who wins in a gambling game because of luck can't win in a lottery because it's the same thing, you can't get lucky in a different way to win a lottery, if your luck can work in gambling, it can work in lotteries as well. The only difference is in the odds and probabilities, when you are gambling, you tend to have a higher probability of winning a bet but the reward is less because of the odds.

The odds of winning in a lottery are extremely low, which is the reason why it's so difficult to win the main prize. If you set the odds in a gambling game as high as they are in a lottery, you will have the same results, every single bet will be lost and it will cost even more money since you are required to use some money for each bet while buying just a few tickets in a lottery should be enough to try your luck.

I think that it is interesting to remember, if you didn't read it, what was discussed before in this same thread, not about Megamillions in particular but about Euromillions, which is also a multi-state lottery. The probability to win that lottery is in the OP so it is unnecessary to repeat it, but it is not very different from the one you mention.

Completely agree with you and disagree with Bushdark as well, lottery, like you have said is completely a luck based game, more tickets does not guarantee winning even though casinos or those who host the lottery will always advice that the more tickets you hold, the better your chances of winning, this is just something they do in other to have gamblers or participants of the lottery buying even more and more tickets, which will in turn mean more and more profit for them, since them as well are into it for some money as well.

Concerning the discussion of "the more tickets one buys, the better the chances of that person winning" we can draw an example from Freebitco's lottery system, where we see that people with such a few hundred tickets end up winning the jackpot, while those with millions of tickets end up winning just a tiny amount of bitcoin, and sometimes, nothing at all.

Compared to gambling, the lottery. It is very hard to win the lottery, you're right. The chances are very, very bad against you. The numbers don't lie; I've seen them. A city-sized haystack makes it hard to find the needle in the haystack. Gambling is not the same. It takes both skill and luck to win at games like poker and blackjack. But, and this is a big but, the house always wins in the end. They know they have the upper hand. It's true; I've been there and seen it

That's why you're being sensible when you tell people about the lottery and gambling. That is good advise. But don't forget that at the end of the day, both are just gambling. Taking care of things is important. Don't risk more money than you can afford to lose. Never go after loses. And know the odds all the time. That's a smart move

Totally too far off if we do speak about odds specially on winning up lottery comparing into some gambling game like casinos or sports betting but we know that ticket prizes are way more cheaper and results arent really that
instant but rather it would really be having a specific day for such drawing off those casual 6 digit numbers combinations on which you would really be needing to have those hits on getting that jackpot prize.
Odds? it would be neither 1 out of 10 million chance or much more bigger.

Lets put up Megamillions.

Unfortunately, many lotteries have even worse odds than the scenario just described. For example, the popular Mega Millions multi-state lottery has odds of approximately 1 in 175,711,536. That's right — 1 in almost 176 million!
https://wonderopolis.org/wonder/what-are-your-odds-of-winning-the-lottery

Imagine on how you much you would really be needing on hitting up those chances.
This is why it would really be always recommended that you should really be that only spending only a few amounts on buying lottery tickets
because there's no assurance that you would really be able to hit it up even with your lifetime.

I don't agree with this because what I know is that lottery betting really depends purely on luck and buying more tickets does not mean increasing the chance of getting the jackpot but the opportunity to make themselves lose all their money just to chase winnings from the lottery.
I respect your opinion but this doesn't seem to make sense because if you can research in certain parts of the city there is a gambler who really likes to bet, buys lottery tickets and for years has never gotten a big jackpot, only small wins and you can imagine in a few years Isn't that a lot of tickets to buy? But the fact is that this person never got a big jackpot from the lottery.

Trying to buy multiple lottery tickets for the sake of increasing your chances of hitting the jarkpot lucky number is like increasing your risk also because the more the numbers the more your amount you stake and if those numbers come out to be losing number, that will result into heavy lose also.


So we shoulnd not take multiple lottery number to mean an automatic means of tp winning  pr hitting the lucky numbers.

Now you are talking because there are chances to win just by increasing your number of tickets.

Winning the lottery is much more difficult than winning in gambling. As hard as it is to get lucky in the lottery, once luck plays a role, it can be quickly gained from there. But getting lucky in lottery is very difficult. I personally have not won any lottery where there is a big prize. So I naturally don't believe in lotteries. What I always say to people who want to buy the lottery. I suggest them there is profit if your are not lucky. It is better wagered in gambling than the money spent on the lottery. People who buy lotteries themselves know that it is not possible to win the lottery if the luck is not exceptional good.