Topic: LoyceV's Avatar for Rent [first 🦊🦊🦊3 YEARS🦊🦊🦊 (165 weeks) rented out] - page 30. (Read 35315 times)

+1
Will be interesting to see how predictions will change.
Currently, LoyceV would win. 


Looks like Bitcoin is getting ready for 2023. We are above 17k USD now, so if we can keep this level tomorrow, I expect more gains as people are getting a bullish sentiment for our new year (hopefully). If so, we could also see an increasing hashrate.
Maybe some miners are anticipating it already?

Mempool space shows some +11% the estimated next difficulty change. I didn't recheck the calculations, but I am sure I didn't have this big numbers.

According to my computations. no rise in the Hash rate: actually the expected result has been quite stable lately.

No worries.
And you could have been done better. The hash rate is rising so fast I now expect we're both way off

Yeah, I reckon it was a "dick move" but in the end, sorry NeuroticFish, nothing personal.

I slightly updated my spreadsheet. And I am continuing to update this (I am cooking something for this), and now it reports the projected winner using my second model (which I think it's better Thant the first one).

Based on a very rough estimate of this difficulty period running around 11% faster than average (at the time I made my calculation), a random guess that the next difficulty period would run ~4-5% faster than average, and who knows about the one after that. But more because it gives me a wider range rather than squeezing in around the 774,450s - 774,500s, and avoids me doing the "someone else's guess +/- 1", which (no offense to the people who did that) is what you might call a "dick move".

Aaaaaaand participation deadline is over.
Feel free to check if I made some errors in adding your predictions.  

I've added your bullish prediction but since it's so bullish, I'm curious why it's even more bullish than my prediction.  


Added as well and that's really a big effort in your spreadsheet.  
+1
It's truly a professional prediction.  

Are you sure that it's bullish enough for our giveaway?  

Edit: I've just checked you spreadsheet in detail and it's interesting that there's not a single prediction above 774450...
I really expect a huge BTC price increase, so will be interesting how it'll turn out. 

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Good luck everyone! I'll leave some updates here from time to time to see how it's going.
May our giveaway honor GazetaBitcoin's couch Bonbon L,  

Everything is pretty standard right now.
Calculations have been pretty strightforard. You find everything in the attached spreadsheet.

Gazeta BonBon L Giveaway

Forecsting is similar to 1 miau models, but I am sticking to forecasts.
I just added a strategic overview of other's forecast, in order to maximise chances (or try to).

My kids are wild, everything is anchored to the wall. I have 1,8m high glass display cabinet. One day i found the girl jumping from it to the couch... The TV is wall mounted as well. I changed 3 TVs since the first one was born.
The first TV was new, but had only a few months of life, died after an update. Then I decided that is no point to buy new TV with small kid, and got second hand, heavy 50" plasma. As I expected the kiddo found a sea shell and scraped the the whole screen, luckily it had a protective glass so the matrix wasn't damaged. This tv survived almost 3 years, unfortunately died, the power supply gave up and I also gave up on fixing it. Was anchored to the wall. Got another used one, and died after 2 years. Than I got a new one Philips 55" with Android and mounted it on the wall. I'm quite happy with it now, the older kid is keeping the small one away from it.

I also like that, but I live inside an apartments building and I also have to think about the neighbors. At least, sometimes


Obviously, the 1000W is pure marketing, same as the old Altec Lansing could not deliver 500W. But they use this disclaimer: the 100W represents "the max output power" -- which is different than "Total output power" or than what we understand by "How many real Watts does it have, hombre?" Realistically thinking, I think that it may reach a total power output by 400-500W (by the way, the subwoofer is at the right side of the TV, near the balcony door).


So true...


Good question! Thank God, he was all a smile, sitting near the broken TV, laughing. He was very proud of what he did. He was not hurt, as he stepped back quickly when he saw it moving, but this did not stop him from being proud of his achievement (facepalm again). I remember than an aunt of mine told me that when I was 3 yo I once "fished" and old clock which she had on a dressing, using a toy fishing rod (obviously, after I hooked it with the fishing rod's hook it fell on the ground and got broken, as the hook was a fragile plastic one, lol). And she always used to tell me that story like it was something shocking what I did back then. I guess nowadays kids don't fish clocks anymore, but 60" TVs Of course, I told my aunt what he did, to not be shocked anymore about her clock. So I also can't brag myself anymore with the fact that I fished that clock. My son is already way ahead, with fishing a big screen TV =))) (Curiously, I still have the power to laugh about it, although the new one left me without almost 900 euro.)


Great decision! Big thumb up!


Oh, gawd...


I sent you one merit for teaching me this word! I will also use it from now on

Call me old-fashioned, but I want my speakers to be big. I don't really believe you can push 1000W through such small speakers. I want big, so it doesn't need the subwoofer for low sound.
My speakers are old by now though, and if we ever move, we'll probably buy a whole lot of new items. But for now, it'll do. Houses are crazy expensive at the moment.

Maybe it's because I'm a dad, but I'm missing a crucial part of this story: how was your son doing?
Here, furniture is either heavy, wall-mounted, or filled with lead. I know my kids.

Our TV isn't wall-mounted. It has scratches in the screen, from my son hitting it with Duplo. A couple of years ago I found him standing in front of it on a table that he moved, holding the top with 2 hands, angrily shaking it and ready to pull it on top of him when I interfeared (that's not a typo, it's a word I made up because it fits better).

Thank you, my friend, and also thank you for joining this party

And yes, the couch is very flexible, since all its elements can be arranged however you please  
Regarding the sound system, what can I say? -- You have eagle eyes!

Now that system has a story. Before renovating my home I used (since 2003 or 2004) an Altec Lansing 641 4.1 system. When I bought it, I remember that it was la piece de resistance among speakers... I remember that I paid for it about 400 euro, while the rent was 100 euro back then. And I was very happy with it... But its main problem was that it had all its speakers connected through wires to the subwoofer. It also did not have a standalone amplifier; it was built-in. And its remote control was also wired.

Now before renovating the house I used to have carpet on the floor, in living room, and I could hide all those wires under the carpet. After renovation was done, I had parquet in living room and no carpet, thus I could not hide the wires anymore. And the wires were also not long enough for allowing me to hide them at the base of the walls (they were not long enough to surround the entire room). Therefore, sadly, I knew I will have to stop using my precious Altec Lansing.

So I started looking for a new sound system, a wireless or semi-wireless one, but I also wanted it to have some specific details: to have "tallboy" speakers (like the ones you saw in my picture), to have a max power output of at least 500W (as my old Altec had 480) and to have a wireless remote control. So I searched for such system for almost two months, only to realize that they are not made anymore. Nor by Samsung, nor by Sony, nor by other companies. I found 2-3 wireless systems but they had small speakers (like the satellites of my old Antec Lansing) and I did not like them. I also did not want a sound bar, as it can not offer full spatial sound; it only imitates it, but spatial is spatial and the sound offered by a sound bar is, certainly, not spatial).

So when I was about to give up, I found this system at a guy, which was selling it as he did not use it anymore. He said he has a 3.5 yo girl and their TV is always on Cartoon Network, thus the system was not needed anymore. Now all I bought in my house, for the renovation, was brand new. Absolutely everything. And I also wanted to have a brand new audio system as well. It was just... what I wanted to buy could not be found anymore. So I went to this guy's house and I inspected carefully the system, each speaker, the remote control, everything. It was like a brand new one! No scratch, no stain, no nothing! I was very impressed and I decided to buy it. He gave it to me for 200 euro and he said he paid for it more than 700 euro when he bought it.

So this is how I got it and this is how it's front part looks like:



It's a Sony BDV-E970W. And I am very pleased by it. Its max power output is 1000W and it is semi-wireless. The rear speakers are connected between them with wires and they have to be plugged into a power outlet, but they are not wired to the amplifier. They communicate wireless with the amplifier and the front speakers. The front speakers and central one are also wired to the amplifier but again, it does not disturb be, as all their cables are behind the cabinet located under the TV. And, of course, the remote control is wireless, but I don;t even need it, as the system responds also to the TV remote control.

Last, but not least: remember that I said that everything was brand new after renovation. This also includes that 65" TV you see in the picture. I did not plan to change my old TV, which was "only" a 60" one (and I had it since 2015), but my son forced me to (facepalm). Just when I finished all renovation and I was about to say "Thank God it's all finished!" (in October 2022), one evening I heard a loud sound. I quickly came to living room and I saw my previous TV fallen down from that cabinet located under the new TV, with its face toward the ground. What happened? My son pulled out all the shelves of the cabinet, the shelves were full with heavy stuff and the cabinet leaned forward. The TV was placed on and it fell down... Of course, the entire display was broken... There was nothing left to do but buying a new one. So I bought even a bigger one (lol) but this one is bolted into the wall! I'm not making same error as before. (And, if you want to know the model of the TV, it is a QLED Smart SAMSUNG 65Q60B, Ultra HD 4K, HDR)

^By the way, be careful TheBeardedBaby and LoyceV! If you don't have your TVs bolted into walls, I'd suggest you to do it. You never know when the baby may decide you need a new one

Great and very detailed prediction, I've added it to my list.

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Since time for participation is running out today, I'll also make my calculation:

Time left until January 31, 2023, 23.59h:
24 days
6 hours


On average, each day will be mined (1 Block per 10 minutes) 144 Blocks per day (6 Blocks per hour x 24 hours = 144 Blocks)

Calculation if we won't see any hashrate change:
(24 days * 144 Blocks per day) = 3.456 Blocks
+ (6 hours x 6 Blocks per hour) = 36 Blocks
= 3.492 Blocks until our given date

=>

3.492 + 770.843 (current Block) = 774.335


Now, we need to adjust our prediction due to difficulty changes.
Difficulty changes are made due to hashrate changes, which are following BTC price.
I'm expecting BTC to make a nice move towards 25k and more miners will join the network (hashrate increase) => more Blocks will be mined.
It's difficult to predict, how hashrate will be affected but I'm adding a total of 5% more Blocks to be mined.

3.492 * 1,05 = 3.666,6 Blocks

=>

3.666,6 + 770.843 (current Block) = 774.335

My prediction: 774.510

Thank you for running another contest like this one 1miau! Since I'm edible I'll just try my hand at guessing the block (I believe this is my first time doing so):

My calculations took the following assumption:

• Last mined block (12:30 GMT / 13:30 CEST) - 770816
• Minutes left until 31th January 23:59:59 (CEST) ~ 35129
• Last difficulty epoch adjustment : Block #770112 @ 03/01/2023 04:22:50    
• Blocks mined in current difficulty epoch : 704
• Current average mining time (~my estimation) - 8,88 minutes (6253,167 minutes / 704 mined blocks)
• Next difficulty adjustment: Assuming the previous mining average and the fact that the adjustment takes place at every 2,016 blocks, it will be somewhere around ~ 11653 minutes to reach block #772128, which translates into ~ 8 days (11653 / 1440 minutes) - 15/01/2023
• By this time I believe that the difficulty adjustment will have to be somewhere around ~ 11,5 %, which means that the average block time will increase to ~ 9,904 minutes
• Applying the same assumptions (both mathematically and related), I think we'll have another difficulty epoch before end of month, around 29th of January, which is when we'll hit block #774144
• Adding even more assumptions into an already web full of them, I think that the difficulty adjustment will be positive, around ~ 1.5 %, taking us to an average mining time of 10,0227 minutes
• Assuming that the last difficulty adjustment is made around 12:30:00 (CEST) on 29th of January, my guess is that the last mined block in January will be something near block #774500
• Since icopress already took block #774500 I guess I'll take the next one #774501

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Gazeta I have to say that you have a remarkable couch! It does bring light to the room, plus it seems highly flexible! Added bonus of having a nice surround system in the back of it! May I ask what system are you currently running of speakers and such?

Alt Account accusations incoming. 

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There's a giveaway about it. 

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It's a very cute couch, GazetaBitcoin has confirmed. 


We are definitely looking forward to it. 

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It's foul play due to our repeated delay in arranging our giveaway, because it dates back to somewhen early September and when we drafted the rules, Berlin still had summer time. 
And as I'm always in a hurry, I haven't proofred properly as LoyceV already named the last Block of January 2022 correctly.

While it's mentioned CEST and current Berlin time, you can go for what's more suitable for you and it would be completely legal since I've forgotten to change it. 

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It's because I hate winter time so much, it's getting dark very early...

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GazetaBitcoin has a cat as well and I don't hope the couch will suffer...
Some cats really like to scratch couches. 
(I'm not doing this)

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Yessss, let's make it happen. 


I've added all remaining entries, please check if your entry is listed correctly as I'm always in for a mistake. 
And icopress is in as well. 

Aaaand here is my bet for the raffle:


It seems that what Loyce saw on the difficulty estimator website has changed since then. Right now, it shows that "Next Difficulty Change: between +2.7816% and +15.3994%". I will take a wild guess for a +3% difficulty, which would mean to have a block at each 10.3 minutes (10 minutes and 20 seconds).

Right now, lattest block is 770328, so, based on my calculation, there is space for 3840 more blocks. Therefore, my prediction is 774168!

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Lol, true!


=))))))) True again! Yet I said to not overcrowd with one more post the already overcrowded topic of our dear LV, therefore I deleted it

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Thank you


Oh, gawd

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Neither have I, it was 1miau's idea


Hihi, thank you!


Awww that would have been a great idea, also for me. Mine is 3.6 years old. Maybe we'll do it for the next ones (assuming there will be next ones)?  Kidding. Mey Frank have a long and prosperous life!


But I do laugh =)))


Now that would be something! Imagine that! I could arrange some legal papers to entitle me as the official speaker for Bonbon and then we could see it growing up from zero to Hero. It could also have a very own Bonbon's reputation thread Probably the only couch around the world which is active on Internet

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Hehe, thank you and welcome to the party

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Other than that, icopress entitled me to post a prediction on his name, as he does not have access to his computer before the registration period ends:


Therefore, let's give our friend a hand of help:

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Good luck everybody!

I saw that I'm allowed to take part here too, so I'll join your party and celebrate with you. 

Congratulations @GazetaBitcoin on the new couch Bonbon L and on finishing the complete house renovation. The name goes really well with the couch. After all that work, you definitely deserve this couch. I hope you will enjoy the couch for a long time. 

Thanks also for the competition @GazetaBitcoin and @1miau. It's really generous and I'm happy to take part.

Then I guess and my tip looks like this:

Bitcointalk Account: CoinEraser
Last Block of January 2023: 774299

Good luck to all participants. 

No no no, I will not accept completely reasonable and highly likely explanations. The only answer here is that 1miau is deliberately trying to sabotage my devious plan to get my prediction in at the last minute! Instead I'll have to get it 61 minutes prior to the deadline just to be sure, which will of course rob me of 6 blocks (on average) of valuable information!

Maybe 1miau is in Jamaica, forgetting that in Berlin it's winter
Or maybe with this unnaturally warm winter in Europe he has forgotten it's still winter  

...Just read it as CET. Maybe 1miau will also correct that.