Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 262. (Read 647196 times)

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Armstrong today (11 July) tells of a case of one of his contacts in Italy.  This is the first time I have read of a run on Italian ATMs, but it certainly is plausible:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/banking-panic-in-italy/

We are nowhere near the end of all of this...

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bumbum

It is important (if you want to better understand) that you read a lot of the this thread!  Armstrong's ideas are not easy for many (inc. me) to digest.  iamnotback performs a useful service for all of us in helping to explain Armstrong's ideas, while his two main opponents take their shots (all is fair).  Armstrong treads where few forecasters have before.

FINALLY, Martin actually posted a weekly DOW array. It's been so long since the last one, these days he's too caught up blogging in politics (yawn). Oh well, I'll take what I can get while I wait for Socrates.


I'm long UVXY, I don't think the S&P will go higher than 2150 before a deep retracement down to 2071-2050.

We need that to totally break the confidence in the USA after the strong USD also destroys as I mentioned in the prior posts.

This will force the private sector to AAA corporate and stocks to seek yield. Then those will bubble and peak and finally after that USD stampede bubble completes, everything will be burnt to the ground. So we can do the global monetary reset. There will be very little resistance by that time to it, because confidence will be in the abyss. TPTB are doing creative destruction now.


The rest of the world is short the dollar and the strong dollar will burn the rest of the world economy to the ground in a dollar liquidity vortex that sucks everything into the dollar, because the more the short bankrupts the rest of the world, the more capital will stampede out of the rest of the world and into the dollar.

The divestment from the dollar will come in a monetary reset agreed to by all the nations. A "Bretton Woods" accord of the G20 perhaps. It will be done with the stroke of a pen.

r0ach you are an extreme case of a delusion tinfoil hat.

Get a grip on reality dude. The mainstream doesn't have a clue about the things that worry you. If you mentioned these points to them, they'd look at you like you've lost your mind and are babbling idiot crying "The Sky is Falling". They would think putting $million of physical gold in a vault is much more dangerous, illiquid, and volatile pricing than buying some stock certificates. Remember it is the millionaires who drive the markets, not the small investor who is always the last to the party when the millionaires are cashing out.

You also still don't seem to understand relative size and liquidity and you are too damn stubborn to realize you are a Dunning-Kruger idiot in this case.

I'll remind you about this in a few years if I am still around after USD and US stocks have done precisely what Armstrong and I have told you they will do.

@iamnotback

Your posts are very informative.  Thank you!

Divesting from the dollar would really upset the apple cart. Not that it isn't coming in time anyway (an orderly move to SDR is likely), but seeing how intertwined the world is financially, a big, disorderly, pronounced move away from the USD would provoke massive reactions. Most developing nations have high corporate dollar denominated debt loads so who knows the ramifications there. Trade deals would be blown apart, tariffs introduced.

Most countries are controlled by politicians and the main thing they strive for is continued power. Taking on the US in financial warfare is a tough ask - you either accept the dollar or get used to an economy under fire; for recent examples see Brazil since 2010, Iran, Russia and Venezuela. Not really a hot war but certainly economic. If they are happy to shrink their economy, trash their currency and revert to protectionism and self sufficiency, as Russia has sort of done, then yeah, maybe.

The Saudi's would lose their protector in the ME. China would open itself to loss of export market & loss of jobs which would = social unrest. War would be the only answer.

As we are seeing, gold is doing OK and so is bitcoin but the lure for money is changing to liquidity and return of capital not high yield chasing. Why risk getting run over chasing a few % while you can "safely" pick up .5% and see what the result of all this madness is? And while i think some percent will contiue to flow into gold & bitcoin, the huge oceans of capital are looking for a safe home first.

I told you that I sold my last remaining BTC (thought it was 3 BTC, but actually it was only 1.8 BTC) at $450 because I have no speculative capital to invest and I am only conserving cash flow at this time in order to make sure I can pay my bills so I can code. I have to take a double from the $200s whence I was given the BTC and lockin that cash because my risk profile is entirely different from someone who is well diversified and who is speculating with capital they can afford to lose.

I have told you so many damn times, yet you continue running around gloating that I sold 1.8 BTC at $450 (that trade btw I am quite happy with).

While you never talk about whether you sold at $1200 or held it going down to $150. As if you've made every perfect trade.   Being a permabull works on the way up and doesn't work on the way down.

I also told you in my prior post (and I had alluded this in upthread posts) that I had not been monitoring the long-term BTC chart since June 2015 and thus I hadn't noticed the long U bottom had formed. I hadn't updated my analysis since last summer. Had I more than a couple of BTC to sell, I would have made it a priority to study in more detail. When a friend with more BTC asked me if it could go to $1200, I took the time to study it more carefully and that was when I told him and posted upthread here that a U bottom had potentially formed and the second option was we could be headed to $1200 meandering over the rest of this year. BTC then moved up to the handle of the cup and now we are meandering before the next potential burst up to $1200 resistance (there may also be some resistance in the $700- $800 level).

I hope I don't have to explain this to you again.


You apparently don't understand a damn thing about liquidity and size. I already explained to you upthread why the $trillions can't buy physical gold and BTC.

You are apparently simpleton tinfoil hat and not a sophisticated investor.

Edit: the masses in the USA are not any where near to the stage of buying gold or BTC. They will pile into the US stock market once DJIA gets past 23k as they will want to get on that "sure thing" bandwagon bubble. Ditto on BTC's next bubble. They won't pile on to gold until many years from now. You need to come out of your basement and see how normal people view the world currently.


You need to come up from your basement sometimes and learn from a sophisticated former $2 trillion hedge fund manager:


You are in a tinfoil hat delusion.

You understand nothing about large capital and liquidity. The oil producing nations are having cash flow problems now that oil has dropped in price. That is why OPEC failed to limit production.

Etc, etc, etc.. You need come out of your basement and read Armstrong. Or don't. I don't care. I have to go do my work, else I will end up destitute. I don't have time to argue and explain to you every detail. You need to read more outside of the tinfoil delusion magazines in your basement.

r0ach, neither Bitcoin nor gold have defied my expectations. Why do you speak dishonestly about me?

First of all, I was buying gold and silver back in 2005, and then I was attempting to sell at the top at $21. Unfortunately, because I was traveling between the USA and the Philippines in late 2006, I had Jason Hommel hold my metals and he refused to sell my silver for me when I asked him to at $21. I had to have him ship my metals to First State Depository in Delaware, and then I was finally able to sell at $13. On top of that, a 1000oz bar which I had ordered from Tulving before the $21 peak, had arrived with the serial number chiselled off, so then I was unable to sell it and he wouldn't honor the price at the moment and instead forced me to return the bar for a replacement which took something like a month to complete. That was one an example of why physical metals are absolutely illiquid and unsuitable for trading.

So I was buying Comex 1000oz bars below $9 and minting rounds and selling them, many of them to rpietila in Finland. I had amassed 18,000oz of silver.

Then when silver hit $20s in Oct. 2010, I made my famous prediction that precisely predicted the timing and price that silver would rise to $45 and then fall back again to $26:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html

Again the problem was I had shipped my physical metals to the Philippines at the only repository available which was run by European who was a former manager of Metanor's refining operation. He had a small refinery in Manila for gold coming in from the small mines in Luzon.

He ended up extracting about $50,000 out of my holdings through a series of slopping accounting, delays in providing account statements, delays on making requested trades, etc.. I was unable to hold my metals personally in Mindanao, because I didn't have the proper security here.

So he also made it impossible for me to sell at $48 even though several others in the Hommel forum sold precisely at that price based on my prediction and telling to sell at that time. I was finally able to sell some of my silver at $36, and then eventually the remaining in the high $20s. Armstrong's prediction for a long decline from 2011 forward (which I became aware of only in 2012), also aided my resolve to liquidate (in addition to realizing my savings was being stolen from me due to problem of who could store my metals).

In 2012 and then again Jan 2013, I was discussing Bitcoin with rpietila. In 2011, I was preoccupied on the start of my health problem, family problems (my kids were still with me at that time), living location problems, and also I was trying to code up a dating site and try to get some income rolling in because I hadn't had any income from my s/w work since roughly 2006 when my coolpage.com sales had finally tapered off to near 0. In May 2012 was when I was suddenly in ER with a bursted severe (life threatening) acute peptic ulcer, my ex showed up unannounced when I was so ill and yanked my kids, and the combination had done something to my state-of-mind (my adrenal glands were on overdrive and I was constantly under the feeling of "fight or flight" with my cortisol constantly elevated) that I had followed Graham Summers into a short bet on the Chinese markets and I tripled down on the bet ended up losing $75,000 in July/August. It was after this, that I started to follow Armstrong much more closely and realized if I had followed him I wouldn't have lost that $75,000.

In Jan 2013, rpietila and I discussed Bitcoin when it was around $10 or so, and I told him it was poised to go much higher and I approved of his decision to go all in. He sold $100,000 of silver and bought 10,000 BTC. He went from being less wealthy than me, to being a multi-millionaire. I told him that I really wanted to follow him into BTC, but that I had depleted all of my speculative investment capital (various reasons including the ones mentioned above plus for example my ex extracting $2000+ monthly from me during that 2012 - 2014 period once she had the kids back in the USA and also the expenses of my health debacle). I had just enough capital to support my cash flow requirements through 2014 and I had hoped I could code up something by that time. Unfortunately, the illness became chronic and I basically fell off the cliff into the abyss of non-production and my remaining savings dwindled away until I reached the point where I am now entirely bankrupt and my remaining cash flow (provided by an investor) is dwindling away as well.

As Bitcoin moved past $1000, my relationship with rpietila had soured because he became something like a King pronouncing that Monero was the only altcoin worth investing in and as well he was basically telling investors to buy BTC in the $600 - $700 level. I became negative on both of those investments and I was correct, with BTC falling to my predicted target of $150 and Monero also collapsing after rpietila's initial pump.

I also called many of BTC meandering moves interim, and for example one very public one was when I said in May 2015, that BTC would rise to $320 in the summer and fall back down again. Some people in this forum can vouch for that as they successfully shorted at $320. I was thinking about shorting, because I was talked out of by someone who told me I couldn't trust bitfinex.

I even called the moved in Ethereum correctly since February when it began its move up.

My one error in BTC was I expected both gold and BTC to make their final lows in Q1 2016, and wasn't looking at the long-term BTC chart since mid last year and observing the long U bottom that had formed. I did notice that recently when a friend asked me if there was any chance BTC could move to $1200 on this current move up, and I told him yes it was possible because a U bottom pattern had potentially formed since I had last looked at it carefully.

On the future we face now, while you were holding BTC all the way down from $1200 to $150 in your basement with your hunting rifle locked and loaded, others have been making enormous gains trading altcoins and other investments. You tinfoil hats are so easy to humiliate, and I picture in my mind Elmer Fudd.

Black swans are going to drive the international capital into the US dollar which is still by orders-of-magnitude the more liquid reserve currency. If you deny this reality, then I will label you a tinfoil hat who is hunkered down in his basement.

No I am not advocating holding USD only. Right now, if I had speculative capital I would be holding BTC and US stocks. If BTC hits $1200 this year, I would sell at least half and if US stocks are still low, buy them. I would not be buying speculative gold now, although of course any physical I wanted for long-term holding I would have long since bought at $1050 which had since 2012 at least been Armstrong's target for the first low reversal. For further gold buys, I would be waiting for gold to make its final low at $850 after the stampede into the US dollar and US stocks has run its course.

I would also be keeping my eye out for an altcoin that can make another run like Ethereum did. I would be looking for the right combination of features and pricing. Unfortunately I have no speculative capital to invest at this time.

For cash, I would (and do) hold USD.

If gold and Bitcoin make their corrections after this current runup, then I would look to increasing holdings, but again I would also be holding some US stocks and also making altcoin investments if they have the right attributes and timing.

As for gold mining investments, there is no way I would touch them again. Even in the 1930s, most of them failed. We only hear about the ones that did exceptionally well.

And we not going to see extremely high gold prices while the USD and US stocks still remain viable. Period. So farting around with gold mining stocks is a good way to lose your money as I did. I already made the mistake of investing in them in 2006 and 2007. I understand altcoins much better than I can possibly understand the corruption of these exploration and junior gold mining facades. Doug Casey and Rick Rule can lick my butthole.

Let me add this saga of the collapsing global economy and a monetary reset is going to transpire over many years. During this time, I don't want to be hunkered down in my basement with my stacks of End of the World hodlrings. The future is about being productive and generating or investing in new developments. So much opportunity for growth over here in Asia. So much work that needs to be done on block chain technology in altcoins. Etc.. Your single-minded basement End of the World blackswan paranoia is contrary to the way great wealth is generated and sustained.

"No, Bitcoin can never become a “world currency” for it is highly questionable whether or not any electronic form of money can become a true “world currency” when more than half the world does not even have a bank account. This is why Europe declared it a right to have a bank account when in fact they are really saying it is mandatory." Whats your say on this?

Watch.

If you find that information useless, then why are you trolling those of us who find it useful? Do you always like to crash parties and tell everyone to go home.

If someone could tell you precisely what to do with your life, then you (the individual with free will) would not exist. You'd be a controlled robot with a predetermined future.

Armstrong's computer is mapping probabilities to past repeating cycles and patterns. As we move forward, depending on outcomes, probabilities can become more certain or less so. He has always told us there are several scenarios and we have to watch certain parameters and benchmarks to interpret which scenario and timing is being elected.

You may find all of this worthless.

I find the concept that the USD and US stocks will be the last man standing and watching for the bottom of the current pause as an entry point to a coming double or triple, to be very valuable.

Your disingenuous trolling is clear to those of us who are sincere.

Wouldn't it be nice if this was a party where we are all physically present, so when you crashed the party we could dunk you in the koolaid and force feed you gin until you pass out, then we can strip you naked, with my thrice worn jock strap tied over you face, and tie you to the telephone poll with a big sign duck taped to your stomach, "Wiseass who crashed the party".

My summary of our investing future from an Armstrong perspective.

This debate between the naysayers and believers is pointless until the Trader version of Socrates comes out (probably some time after the 2016 conference). These days Martin's updates are too sparse to rely on them for trading IMO, but when I had access to the trader preview for a few months and could see the picture he was looking at in real time it was a different story. Luckily I have other sources of reliable analysis until then.

When it comes to long term forecasts the naysayers will always say he was just stating the obvious

"With all core indices closing around 1.5% chances for setting new highs next week look extremely likely. "

Says Armstrong. Which is very possible, but don't forget, 7 from the last 8 market euphoria following a better than expected job report ended up in a lower market close by end of next week. Regardless, even if Armstrong is correct, a pullback early next week is very likely in this overbought market, so be careful with the longs. I am actually surprised Armstrong doesn't advice to stay in cash in this very uncertain market. Normally he would say that.

re: earlier conversation about USD & gold up together - after doing some further reading, I'm seeing how this could occur. A case of not wanting to miss the USD bus implies probably selling gold to maximise US exposure.

538 has made some bad calls.  Although I do respect him for being a great statistician.  Predicting the future is hard (see "Martin Armstrong Discussion" thread).  So, I would not bet with 538's risk:return odds.

Naah, re Rosatom and anything/everything else.  Even the incredible Clinton Crime Family Foundation, a corrupt money-laundering machine of EPIC proportions.  $hillary has the MSM and The Establishment behind her, and 48% of the votes guaranteed without having to lift a finger.

Impunity.  <--- It's what now stinks in America.

 And the odds.  See 538 for that.  Something like 23:77.  But "what does it matter"?  #Rosatom will get her impeached anyhow.

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US$ and stocks are up pretty nicely. Even gold.

There is danger when gold & the dollar are both up!  Has Armstrong addressed this?

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Thanks, vokain, for the Adams blog list of his articles.  I liked the below one he suggests is important:

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/126589300371/clown-genius

He does know how to persuade.  But his opponet $hillary is a nasty piece of work.  Yet the polls say she will win.  Ugh.

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/139541975641/the-trump-master-persuader-index-and-reading-list

For disingenuous idiots (or jackass if it just intentional not due to lack of intellect) yes that is all you are going to see because you apparently can't read nor handle complex thought processes:


Btw, note you are ignoring that he told everyone far in advance of golds decline from the $1600+ level that it would decline to $1050 as the first benchmark. That prediction was very lucrative for those who shorted gold all the way down. I was selling silver because of that prediction and I would be entirely bankrupt now if not for Armstrong.


Ah another troll to put on ignore. I will expect to see what excuse he comes up with in hindsight after the USD and US stocks have risen as predicted sometime within the 2017 to 2021 period.