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Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 265. (Read 647062 times)

legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
June 28, 2016, 01:40:19 AM
I'm not sure if anyone has posted this, but this is what he wrote on June 17th in his private blog @ ask-socrates.com:

Quote


"The Dow reacted strong back from the brink, but it was not quite strong enough just yet. The Weekly Bullish now stands at 17915 and the Weekly Bearish is 17580 on our minor model. The Daily Bullish Reversal stands at 17900 and the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 17437.

We do have a Minor Monthly Bearish at 17579 and a June closing beneath 17790 will indicate the market is still positioned neutrally. This is the same number showing up on indicators for the Quarterly timing level. A June closing beneath 17037 will signal a break to retest the support perhaps creating a September low.

To imply a breakout requires a June closing above 18137.50 to hint that we may run into a September high crossing the 20,000 level."

For me the way I interpreted this was to short the market under the assumption that we would either elect those reversals or come very near to electing them (basically viewing them as a target), and hold over the weekend if it looked like the numbers were going to be elected as Friday came to a close. On late Friday afternoon we were still well below his weekly reversal of 17580, so I held UVXY and sold it today over 16$. That's over a 40% profit.

The reason I sold is because I expect the DOW to rise back up to test his Minor Monthly Bearish reversals @ 17579 by Thursday, and because common sense simply tells me that markets tend to consolidate after big swings like that. Holding over the weekend was somewhat risky (I hate holding over the weekend), but according to his 1% rule (which basically says the narrower you elect the reversal by, the stronger the signal) I was relatively safe to assume there would be a little bit more energy pushing the market slightly lower on Monday's opening.

This worked perfectly for me, so I'm really having trouble understanding all the scepticism here. Martin's reversal system seems to work.




except if it keeps going down you miss out on the big run which is the one you want.. better you cut half take 20% and let the rest ride.
sr. member
Activity: 409
Merit: 252
June 27, 2016, 06:35:58 PM
Armstrong is a real genius.
newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
June 27, 2016, 06:25:37 PM
I'm not sure if anyone has posted this, but this is what he wrote on June 17th in his private blog @ ask-socrates.com:

Quote
https://i.imgur.com/sSua1Wh.png

"The Dow reacted strong back from the brink, but it was not quite strong enough just yet. The Weekly Bullish now stands at 17915 and the Weekly Bearish is 17580 on our minor model. The Daily Bullish Reversal stands at 17900 and the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 17437.

We do have a Minor Monthly Bearish at 17579 and a June closing beneath 17790 will indicate the market is still positioned neutrally. This is the same number showing up on indicators for the Quarterly timing level. A June closing beneath 17037 will signal a break to retest the support perhaps creating a September low.

To imply a breakout requires a June closing above 18137.50 to hint that we may run into a September high crossing the 20,000 level."

For me the way I interpreted this was to short the market under the assumption that we would either elect those reversals or come very near to electing them (basically viewing them as a target), and hold over the weekend if it looked like the numbers were going to be elected as Friday came to a close. On late Friday afternoon we were still well below his weekly reversal of 17580, so I held UVXY and sold it today over 16$. That's over a 40% profit.

The reason I sold is because I expect the DOW to rise back up to test his Minor Monthly Bearish reversals @ 17579 by Thursday, and because common sense simply tells me that markets tend to consolidate after big swings like that. Holding over the weekend was somewhat risky (I hate holding over the weekend), but according to his 1% rule (which basically says the narrower you elect the reversal by, the stronger the signal) I was relatively safe to assume there would be a little bit more energy pushing the market slightly lower on Monday's opening.

This worked perfectly for me, so I'm really having trouble understanding all the scepticism here. Martin's reversal system seems to work.



legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1852
June 26, 2016, 03:51:45 PM
...

Armstrong was the loudest table-pounder advising us of the rise of third parties in Europe as well as Brexit.

Frankly, I was not paying much attention to his calls, but he made 'em, and I will be paying more attention hereon.

Armstrong has a slew of articles over the past couple of days re Brexit and related:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/blog/

*   *   *

As I first wrote when opening this thread, I read Armstrong for his ideas.  I am not in a position (nor even want to do the work) to judge his calls.

IMO his vision of history and his huge database/supercomputer are very interesting experiments which are worth following.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
June 26, 2016, 12:08:59 AM
... are always long and short at the same time.

We, traders hedge our trade by being on the opposite side of the trade with an entirely different trading instrument than the hedged instrument. For instance a common hedge for me is a DJIA/GDX pair or SPX/VIX, so we are not long and short at the same time using the same type of instruments, you idiot.

Have you ever traded on the market even with play money? The question is purely academic, of course you have not. Don't bother me with your trading nonsenses gained from Wikipedia or from your high school classmates. It is better for everyone if you keep enjoying your high school holiday instead of embarrassing yourself on trading topics.
I really don't have time for you village idiot. You are not even entertaining like a proper village idiot should be.




Hey did you buy options of vix or gdx on Friday I was scrambling to try to get my old brokerage account but it's been years since I played equities I really wanted to buy some dog options for 2 week expiry.. shit I bet I missed the boat. If you did hold that shit near to u.

I still had my VIX and UVXY. I said last week in this thread that I am not going to sell them, because I don't agree with Armstrong's bullish projections nor with other bulls. Luckily Brexit worked out for me (an other bears) as my VIX and UVXY options calls and spread betting longs are in a very fine shape :-)  though I was totally expecting a Bremain, even I was thinking to close them at 10 PM when the first polls projected a big win for Bremain. Luckily the Newcastle result quickly came and that sent the futures down in no time. By 2 AM I was drinking and celebrating Brexit, and the crashing market.


Yea some of my friends made millions shorting pound.. the.big move is still to come imo

I am not one of those big boyz who trade with millions and I rarely open larger trades than £15-20K, but this is a different time. I have already shorts on GBP and I will open a 200 point size short Monday morning. I can get it from my broker for £110K, which is a very reasonable margin price. I just need a serious hedge which I don't know what will be. I guess shorting 2 Years UK or 10 years Germany bonds could be a hedge for this, but we need to think through this. If the Pound goes to 1.265 which I think eventually it will, then the net profit is £200k, at 1.165 GBP/USD rate the profit is £400k. I see this as a very low risk trade, especially with bond hedges.

Currently we are at 1.365 with the Pound which is only an 8% drop from the pre Brexit price. I think we should have at least 15% drop. Soros and many other can see it falls to 1.15 which is another 2100 points drop from the current rate. Surely, it must be fall from the current 1.365, otherwise this is the mother of all bear trap. A few retailers will be flushed out before it goes down, but it cannot stay this current high level for long.

Well i fully expect the stock market to crash these next few weeks(wish i could get in on this, but no broker and takes time to set one up) so if it does then the pound will be the hardest hit.. so we can see it in a few days imo... lets see the gap down on sunday.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
June 25, 2016, 09:17:01 PM
... are always long and short at the same time.

We, traders hedge our trade by being on the opposite side of the trade with an entirely different trading instrument than the hedged instrument. For instance a common hedge for me is a DJIA/GDX pair or SPX/VIX, so we are not long and short at the same time using the same type of instruments, you idiot.

Have you ever traded on the market even with play money? The question is purely academic, of course you have not. Don't bother me with your trading nonsenses gained from Wikipedia or from your high school classmates. It is better for everyone if you keep enjoying your high school holiday instead of embarrassing yourself on trading topics.
I really don't have time for you village idiot. You are not even entertaining like a proper village idiot should be.




Hey did you buy options of vix or gdx on Friday I was scrambling to try to get my old brokerage account but it's been years since I played equities I really wanted to buy some dog options for 2 week expiry.. shit I bet I missed the boat. If you did hold that shit near to u.

I still had my VIX and UVXY. I said last week in this thread that I am not going to sell them, because I don't agree with Armstrong's bullish projections nor with other bulls. Luckily Brexit worked out for me (an other bears) as my VIX and UVXY options calls and spread betting longs are in a very fine shape :-)  though I was totally expecting a Bremain, even I was thinking to close them at 10 PM when the first polls projected a big win for Bremain. Luckily the Newcastle result quickly came and that sent the futures down in no time. By 2 AM I was drinking and celebrating Brexit, and the crashing market.


Yea some of my friends made millions shorting pound.. the.big move is still to come imo

I am not one of those big boyz who trade with millions and I rarely open larger trades than £15-20K, but this is a different time. I have already shorts on GBP and I will open a 200 point size short Monday morning. I can get it from my broker for £110K, which is a very reasonable margin price. I just need a serious hedge which I don't know what will be. I guess shorting 2 Years UK or 10 years Germany bonds could be a hedge for this, but we need to think through this. If the Pound goes to 1.265 which I think eventually it will, then the net profit is £200k, at 1.165 GBP/USD rate the profit is £400k. I see this as a very low risk trade, especially with bond hedges.

Currently we are at 1.365 with the Pound which is only an 8% drop from the pre Brexit price. I think we should have at least 15% drop. Soros and many other can see it falls to 1.15 which is another 2100 points drop from the current rate. Surely, it must be fall from the current 1.365, otherwise this is the mother of all bear trap. A few retailers will be flushed out before it goes down, but it cannot stay this current high level for long.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
June 25, 2016, 03:50:08 PM
... are always long and short at the same time.

We, traders hedge our trade by being on the opposite side of the trade with an entirely different trading instrument than the hedged instrument. For instance a common hedge for me is a DJIA/GDX pair or SPX/VIX, so we are not long and short at the same time using the same type of instruments, you idiot.

Have you ever traded on the market even with play money? The question is purely academic, of course you have not. Don't bother me with your trading nonsenses gained from Wikipedia or from your high school classmates. It is better for everyone if you keep enjoying your high school holiday instead of embarrassing yourself on trading topics.
I really don't have time for you village idiot. You are not even entertaining like a proper village idiot should be.




Hey did you buy options of vix or gdx on Friday I was scrambling to try to get my old brokerage account but it's been years since I played equities I really wanted to buy some dog options for 2 week expiry.. shit I bet I missed the boat. If you did hold that shit near to u.

I still had my VIX and UVXY. I said last week in this thread that I am not going to sell them, because I don't agree with Armstrong's bullish projections nor with other bulls. Luckily Brexit worked out for me (an other bears) as my VIX and UVXY options calls and spread betting longs are in a very fine shape :-)  though I was totally expecting a Bremain, even I was thinking to close them at 10 PM when the first polls projected a big win for Bremain. Luckily the Newcastle result quickly came and that sent the futures down in no time. By 2 AM I was drinking and celebrating Brexit, and the crashing market.



Yea some of my friends made millions shorting pound.. the.big move is still to come imo
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
June 25, 2016, 03:03:47 PM
... are always long and short at the same time.

We, traders hedge our trade by being on the opposite side of the trade with an entirely different trading instrument than the hedged instrument. For instance a common hedge for me is a DJIA/GDX pair or SPX/VIX, so we are not long and short at the same time using the same type of instruments, you idiot.

Have you ever traded on the market even with play money? The question is purely academic, of course you have not. Don't bother me with your trading nonsenses gained from Wikipedia or from your high school classmates. It is better for everyone if you keep enjoying your high school holiday instead of embarrassing yourself on trading topics.
I really don't have time for you village idiot. You are not even entertaining like a proper village idiot should be.




Hey did you buy options of vix or gdx on Friday I was scrambling to try to get my old brokerage account but it's been years since I played equities I really wanted to buy some dog options for 2 week expiry.. shit I bet I missed the boat. If you did hold that shit near to u.

I still had my VIX and UVXY. I said last week in this thread that I am not going to sell them, because I don't agree with Armstrong's bullish projections nor with other bulls. Luckily Brexit worked out for me (and other bears) as my VIX and UVXY options calls and spread betting longs are in a very fine shape :-)  though I was totally expecting a Bremain, even I was thinking to close them at 10 PM when the first polls projected a big win for Bremain. Luckily the Newcastle result quickly came and that sent the futures down in no time. By 2 AM I was drinking and celebrating Brexit, and the crashing market.


hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
June 25, 2016, 02:51:21 PM
Otherwise, f*** off.

You need to fuck off son. You are boring and you aren't even the funny village idiot of this thread. You are a fucking useless village idiot, the worst combination of zero knowledge and infinite arrogance. Since you are a useless piece of shit, from now you are on ignore.


jr. member
Activity: 64
Merit: 1
June 25, 2016, 02:24:48 PM

We, traders hedge our trade by being on the opposite side of the trade with an entirely different trading instrument than the hedged instrument. For instance a common hedge for me is a DJIA/GDX pair or SPX/VIX, so we are not long and short at the same time using the same type of instruments, you idiot.

Have you ever traded on the market even with play money? The question is purely academic, of course you have not. Don't bother me with your trading nonsenses gained from Wikipedia or from your high school classmates. It is better for everyone if you keep enjoying your high school holiday instead of embarrassing yourself on trading topics.
I really don't have time for you village idiot. You are not even entertaining like a proper village idiot should be.


you are as a trader as MA is a historian, a programmer, and a good forecaster. You want to think of yourself as a trader, who the f* cares. The same goes with your trading strategy and your bs forecasts. Again, when will you finally learn that this thread is not about you idiot, it's about MA and how he has been ripping off dumb wanna be traders like you for decades. That aside, If you want to be any relevant and useful, bring some proof to back up your claims mentioned in my previous post. Otherwise, f*** off.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
June 25, 2016, 02:19:56 PM
... are always long and short at the same time.

We, traders hedge our trade by being on the opposite side of the trade with an entirely different trading instrument than the hedged instrument. For instance a common hedge for me is a DJIA/GDX pair or SPX/VIX, so we are not long and short at the same time using the same type of instruments, you idiot.

Have you ever traded on the market even with play money? The question is purely academic, of course you have not. Don't bother me with your trading nonsenses gained from Wikipedia or from your high school classmates. It is better for everyone if you keep enjoying your high school holiday instead of embarrassing yourself on trading topics.
I really don't have time for you village idiot. You are not even entertaining like a proper village idiot should be.




Hey did you buy options of vix or gdx on Friday I was scrambling to try to get my old brokerage account but it's been years since I played equities I really wanted to buy some dog options for 2 week expiry.. shit I bet I missed the boat. If you did hold that shit near to u.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
June 25, 2016, 10:30:53 AM
... are always long and short at the same time.

We, traders hedge our trade by being on the opposite side of the trade with an entirely different trading instrument than the hedged instrument. For instance a common hedge for me is a DJIA/GDX pair or SPX/VIX, so we are not long and short at the same time using the same type of instruments, you idiot.

Have you ever traded on the market even with play money? The question is purely academic, of course you have not. Don't bother me with your trading nonsenses gained from Wikipedia or from your high school classmates. It is better for everyone if you keep enjoying your high school holiday instead of embarrassing yourself on trading topics.
I really don't have time for you village idiot. You are not even entertaining like a proper village idiot should be.



hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
June 25, 2016, 07:07:53 AM
Once again congratulations to Martin Armstrong for his 2015.75 bond apocalypse call  Cheesy. Since then the 10 years US Treasury has seen its yield drop to 1.57%. Such forecasting skills  Roll Eyes

Martin Armstrong rightly predicted the most of the financial matters but yet not everything can be correct. Good forecasting skills really come with a lot of knowledge and experience.
jr. member
Activity: 64
Merit: 1
June 25, 2016, 04:50:11 AM
Armstrong was sceptical about a fair EU referendum and he had pointed out several times that it could be a rigged referendum. Armstrong predicted many times over the last 8 months that Brexit is the most likely scenario, his model projected the Brexit outcome, but he noted the referendum could be manipulated by the establishment. There is no contradiction whatsoever in this, but don't break this news to our village idiot sloanf.

Agree with the above, Armstrong is clueless on day trading issues, but we discussed this many times - nobody is having a clue when it comes to day trading. Not knowing what's going to be on the market next Monday is not exclusive to Armstrong. Nobody knows, that's why the fucking trading instrument called spread betting. As I said, I expect we retest lows before the capital flow takes the US market to all time highs, but IMHO Armstrong is correct on the long term outcome of this worldwide mess.

More and more events and notable analyses indicates that Armstrong will be correct on the large picture. Soros points out the capital outflow is imminent from the UK and EU https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/20/brexit-crash-pound-living-standards-george-soros . This is exactly what Armstrong has been arguing. Again, don't break this news to our village idiot sloanf.

IMHO Armstrong is spot on about gold as well. I am starting to short GDX from next week, the start of trade is depending on how bullish will be the market Monday-Tuesday. Regulatory filings indicate that Soros and other big guns are heavily bullish and long on gold. Really? Sounds a bull trap to me. I believe Armstrong and McClellan are correct on gold.

Good luck for all traders!



Oh, stubborn morons used to claim MA is flawless. Now after losing money on both bs reports\conferences and trading advice and getting tired of showing their stupidity over and over all over the forum they are finally getting wiser softening their stance by saying MA is not always correct. For "next monday" he is not good, but for long-term, they claim, he is correct. Really? Then how about this:

So many pages written but still there are so many utter idiots who still are not able to see the MA scam and keep buying his crap regardless of overwhelming evidence posted here and all over the internet. Check all my posts where I expose this charlatan and his fraud. A brief reminder to his loyal idiots:

1. Did Dow go to 32-40K? No, even after he shifted the dates several times. He called for a slingshot at least three times - never happened.  
2. Did real estate go down after 2012? No, it is still rising and at all time highs in many locations.
3. Did gold fall below 1000? Never and it is rising.
4. Did bonds collapse since 2015.75? No, bonds are rising and at all time highs.
5. Has the shift from bonds to equities ever occurred as MA preached for years? No, the opposite is happening.
6. Did governments fall after so called big bang? No.
7. Did the us dollar soar? No, the opposite happened.
8. Did the gop split and other third party cycle computer bs as MA preached for years? No.
9. Has Trump been killed as MA predicted? No, He is the gop nominee.
10. Did the Fed raise rates this year? No.
... the list goes on and on both on long- and short-term predictions. Some of them I covered in my earlier posts.

These are not short-term forecasts, hello!

And where did "Armstrong predicted many times over the last 8 months that Brexit is the most likely scenario, his model projected the Brexit outcome, but he noted the referendum could be manipulated by the establishment. "? Where is any proof of that?

As for Soros and others, you are really pathetic. How can anyone even slightly less moronic than you use quarterly filings in any argument? It is just an end-of-day snapshot of their portfolio. One single day. And what's going on during the rest of 90 days can be completely different. Furthermore, by stating that somebody is bullish on something based on their long position is  laughable even by "MA sheeps" standard. Big managers like Soros are always long and short at the same time. It's called hedging. For example, they may buy gold and buy put options or sell gold stocks, for example. Or they maybe bullish\bearish in their public statements but do the opposite in their trading activity, just like with the Dow. And finally, just because Soros or somebody else said or did something, does not prove that MA forecasts are any accurate. It is not what is said that proves a forecast to be correct\wrong but the reality. And the reality is this https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.15230844.

hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
June 25, 2016, 01:37:56 AM
Armstrong was sceptical about a fair EU referendum and he had pointed out several times that it could be a rigged referendum. Armstrong predicted many times over the last 8 months that Brexit is the most likely scenario, his model projected the Brexit outcome, but he noted the referendum could be manipulated by the establishment. There is no contradiction whatsoever in this, but don't break this news to our village idiot sloanf.

Agree with the above, Armstrong is clueless on day trading issues, but we discussed this many times - nobody is having a clue when it comes to day trading. Not knowing what's going to be on the market next Monday is not exclusive to Armstrong. Nobody knows, that's why the fucking trading instrument called spread betting. As I said, I expect we retest lows before the capital flow takes the US market to all time highs, but IMHO Armstrong is correct on the long term outcome of this worldwide mess.

More and more events and notable analyses indicates that Armstrong will be correct on the large picture. Soros points out the capital outflow is imminent from the UK and EU https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/20/brexit-crash-pound-living-standards-george-soros . This is exactly what Armstrong has been arguing. Again, don't break this news to our village idiot sloanf.

IMHO Armstrong is spot on about gold as well. I am starting to short GDX from next week, the start of trade is depending on how bullish will be the market Monday-Tuesday. Regulatory filings indicate that Soros and other big guns are heavily bullish and long on gold. Really? Sounds a bull trap to me. I believe Armstrong and McClellan are correct on gold.

Good luck for all traders!

legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
June 24, 2016, 08:07:03 PM
Armstrong was right, the swing to more decentralisation, devolution of powers is now underway ... the centralised globalised institutions or power are failing, deceitful and corrupt.

He should stick to big picture forecasts and go on holidays for long periods.
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
June 24, 2016, 02:37:52 PM
a cheap charlatan, a con artist and a know-nothing clown Martin Armstrong does it again, again and again. With gold over 1350 he is still in denial and keeps advising his brainless clients to sell charging them hundreds of dollars for bs reports and disastrous recommendations. With the UK referendum, he has been babbling about rigged votes, fraud, etc, for weeks without any single evidence (as usual) to back up his empty claims. And eventually he yet again f** it all up big time predicting "bremain". Now watch how despite all that he is going to jump in and claim he was right and he predicted "brexit" with all his bs pi model. What a pathetic charlatan!

His model actually predicted Brexit. It seemed more like he didn't believe his own model.

Brexit is so reminiscent of the American Revolution

Happy to see the progress Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
June 24, 2016, 01:27:39 PM
a cheap charlatan, a con artist and a know-nothing clown Martin Armstrong does it again, again and again. With gold over 1350 he is still in denial and keeps advising his brainless clients to sell charging them hundreds of dollars for bs reports and disastrous recommendations. With the UK referendum, he has been babbling about rigged votes, fraud, etc, for weeks without any single evidence (as usual) to back up his empty claims. And eventually he yet again f** it all up big time predicting "bremain". Now watch how despite all that he is going to jump in and claim he was right and he predicted "brexit" with all his bs pi model. What a pathetic charlatan!

His model actually predicted Brexit. It seemed more like he didn't believe his own model.

hes just as clueless as the next guy.. if he stuck to numbers and long term forecasts people wouldnt have an issue
hero member
Activity: 665
Merit: 500
June 24, 2016, 06:48:48 AM
a cheap charlatan, a con artist and a know-nothing clown Martin Armstrong does it again, again and again. With gold over 1350 he is still in denial and keeps advising his brainless clients to sell charging them hundreds of dollars for bs reports and disastrous recommendations. With the UK referendum, he has been babbling about rigged votes, fraud, etc, for weeks without any single evidence (as usual) to back up his empty claims. And eventually he yet again f** it all up big time predicting "bremain". Now watch how despite all that he is going to jump in and claim he was right and he predicted "brexit" with all his bs pi model. What a pathetic charlatan!

His model actually predicted Brexit. It seemed more like he didn't believe his own model.
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