Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 261. (Read 647196 times)

Agree i kinda did this with syscoin.. supply is elastic based on service usage... gdp is service usage.

So according to Martin Armstrong, fractional reserve banking & floating paper currencies are not scams as most of the crypto community seems to believe. He's saying the real scam is socialism/marxism/collectivism, the ability for the majority to take out loans under the names of the minority's unborn. Personally, I'm inclined to agree with him. I have a lot of respect for Rothbard, but it seems he was wrong about the nature of money and banking.

What it really comes down to is that Austrians believe FRB (elastic money supply) is responsible for the business cycle, and what Martin is saying is that cycles are inherent to all markets and that an elastic money supply can actually help in this scenario (acting kind of like gyroscopic stabilizer fins on a ship at sea, if you'll excuse such an analogy).

Assuming he's right, then that means the fundamental ideas that all cryptocurrencies are based on are inherently flawed.

So would it not be true that there is a massive opportunity for someone to develop a cryptocurrency based on fractional reserve banking & elastic money supply? Would there be a way to develop an autonomous decentralized fractional reserve system using blockchain technology? Say for example let's say this new alt coin is called "curro", and it's designed so that all the curro in existence can be drawn from by any private company and loaned to any individual, and the interest earned (the profit) is split between the loan provider and every other curro wallet. Meaning every single "curro" wallet is now an interest bearing savings account. You could also design it in a way that allows anyone with a curro wallet to dictate which private loan companies have drawing rights to your wallet, which would allow for a competitive market ensuring that there is no central point of failure (eliminating the possibility of some kind of virtual "bank run"). You could of course also have the option of not letting anyone have drawing rights to your wallet, essentially turning it into a vault which earns no interest but is otherwise completely immune to financial meltdown.

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iamnotback

As maybe the most "layman" of the group, my thinking would be that Bitcoin has to have more success among the unwashed masses first.  There are not all that many people in the Crypto Universe, and most of the action is in BTC now.  I think the Crypto Universe has to get bigger first.

But, should the C.U. get bigger, then a good alternative to BTC might be able to bust down the doors.  The Alt would have to be running more silent and more deep than BTC, as well as be easy to use (no harder than BTC now). 

An Alt would need a fairly big pond (bigger than the pond is now), and would have to demonstrate marked superiority to Bitcoin to be the winner. 

Could happen though, I am disheartened by the squabbling among the BTC developers.

You're finally seeing the light.

I think the best bet is Ether right now to try to achieve your goal of being aligned because btc has already had its day... its going to take a bit longer to achieve mass adoption for bitcoin to spike to a new log price level. To me ether represents "alts".. my own alt Sys seems to be moving in-line correlated with Eth aswell as eth serves as a guideline for alt appetite (risk on/risk off bitcoin). Once governance is improved by creating distributed mechanisms for achieving consensus through code we should see eth == btc equivalence if it ever comes to it... and that's not to say btc will fall its just a 1a/1b scenario. Any hint at the new technology will send it soaring because its whats kept it back these last few weeks we see the appetite for the market to get past it and try to see if ether can flourish (usually big things come when smart engineers are pressed up against the wall). The hack will end up being a blessing in disguise imo if they play it right.

You done good leaving the dark side of the force

Blockchain tech is the inevitable future.

What you guys think about this?

Yes it would be wise, I have personally been down the free man route being young and dumb, and found myself almost bankrupt.

The rule of law is also collapsing, so I highly advise you to stay out of debt and not defaulting or you may find your self bankrupted by the courts.

probably not worth it imo because as the reset gets near it will get priced into safe havens like bitcoin and thus the risk reward at that point diminishes, if you take it out now then you risk the chance of reprucssions under the current system because you do not know how long before it actually happens. Look at it this way, you have 1 btc now and it costs you say a quarter of your paycheck and 10 years later it happens, you still have your house and car to drive around for 10 years without lenders coming for them and as the event gets near, that 1 btc will cost you say 100x your paycheck. For those that aren't part of bitcoin today it might make sense.

Depends if your particular debt gets 'reset' or not ... take out huge mortgages and credit card debts to buy bitcoin and gold and go AWOL for the reset?

Should see some volatility this week. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/DJFOR-W-7-16-2016.jpg

Would it be wise to stay out of debt now before this inevitable monetary reset happens?

its confused right now better wait

A deadcat bounce would not be contrary to his expectation of an eventual $850 bottom. Let's wait and see what happens.

If anybody wants to say anything, they will do so when they see a need, ok? In the meantime, don't be such a smart-ass, will you? You don't bring anything useful here, do you? And your yet another provocative attempt to incite people against one another is not going to work.

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iamnotback

There you go, you just stated better than I ever had Armstrong's real value to me: his macroeconomic analysis.

I do not day-trade either, having taken a shot at trading in the 1980s, I then understood that I did not have the aptitude (nor even attitude) to "trade".

Nor do I really care much about his short-term calls, since I do not trade, I do not give a crap.  Nor do I have any interest in ponying up money for his trading services.

Armstrong is a guy who has economic history nailed, his insights are spot-on.  We will see what his Socrates system shows us.  Maybe something great & useful, maybe not.

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Re your opponents sloanf and r0ach, recall that you do not have to respond to them, if it's all a waste of your time (etc.).  Also, should you decide to continue taking them on (which I would encourage), their critiques of Armstrong will only help you sharpen your own analyses.  Not that that helps your Bottom Line or anything...

Read my posts again you didnt understand that im saying the same thing about longterm re armstrong

I didnt say you would buy $100m worth of btc here did I? Again read my post and try to comprehend what Im saying before you spew off.

You are a delusional tin foil hat with the similar myopia as r0ach.

There isn't a $100 million of liquidity in Bitcoin for even just one investor, not to mention the $trillions of millionaires. (btw, a more controversial opinion of mine, is that Bitcoin is probably going to top out < $10,000. If you want 100X gains, altcoin speculation is the ticket.) The millionaires who want to play in Bitcoin, are building mining farms and mining BTC cheaply, which another reason altcoins can do so well, because they need liquidity so they can invest this mined BTC without dumping it for fiat.

Your periodic infantile comments about Armstrong give me chuckle. The Dunning-Kruger hubris to think you are even a grain of sand in experience level compared to Armstrong a former manager of the former $trillion Japanese postal fund (until the Japanese government overruled his plan to diversify and thus bankrupted the fund after he left).

altcoinUK et al, who find Armstrong's blog posts incongruent with your insights/expectations on various day trading decisions, such as the VIX, I will just remind you that Armstrong is writing blog posts that refer to differing time horizons. Until you are receiving a trader level interpretation from his computer for the time horizon of your specific focus, you are comparing apples and oranges.

Interesting reading in the below article how a number of investment grade absolute return bond funds have seen significant outflows, especially the EUR denominated ones.

http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/bluebay-absolute-return-bond-fund-hit-by-2-2bn-outflows/a931328

bitcoin can easily be a 100x bagger here compared to doubling up on equities although more liquidity available if you extrapolate someone with $100 million in funds can have a far greater opportunity playing bitcoin here than with equities at these prices... liquidity will come as price and awareness rise (happening exponentially). Also bitcoin is closer to ideal money than central bank targeting and thus over time looks better and better to those with market moving money. I say it will take another brexit style event to tap into a percent of these guys and thats all it really needs to get mainstream hyped up again over bitcoin and cryptocurrency.

Since when did disingenuous become fair. They create extra unpaid work for me and they should know they are not being fair.

They repeat the same disingenuous bullshit, trying to cherry pick statements on a blog out-of-context and without full access to all the computer arrays and reversals. Lately they claim he changes his mind, when in fact his arrays are not 100% deterministic prediction of a specific event at a specific time. Armstrong's computer is providing dynamic guidance to help improve the odds of trading. Point sampling as these disingenuous trolls do, is subject to aliasing error. Do they not even understand the Shannon-Nyquist Sampling theorem.

If the critics want to prepare a detailed record of their trading and the computer arrays they subscribed to, and show a statistically relevant performance, then we could take that as a valid anecdotal sample. Otherwise, they are just blowing aliasing error out their arse in a smear campaign. They might be correct, but until they provide statistically relevant data, then they might as well just be inserting random words into their posts.

If Armstrong doesn't help you reader, then don't read him.

P.S. I am not even focused on nor using Armstrong's short-term guidance. Some of us are just interested in the macro economic perspective he provides. Since I haven't tested his trader level service, I have no idea if it would improve my trading odds. Since I hate day trading, I would never be good at it, even with his computer's guidance.

Again for me the most important information I have obtained from MA has been the gold bearish prediction from the 2011 peak. Sloanf showed some quotes of MA which he claimed showed that MA was conflicted about that call. I know that since I was reading MA in 2012, I was very aware that he was calling for gold to decline significantly. At some point well before it occurred, I became aware of the $1050, $850, and $681 benchmarks. We already hit the first one. Armstrong has hence removed the possibility of the $681 level (see my recent quotes in the Economic Devastation thread). So the $850 level is all that possibly remains on the downside for gold.

The other macro economic information I expect to be very valuable to me, is the prediction that the US dollar and US stocks will be the last fiat man standing with a stampede into them as the periphery of the global economy collapses and exacerbated by the fact the rest of the world owes dollars and has their external unit-of-account in dollars.

I also became aware of the rise in the War Cycle well before 2014, because of Armstrong. I knew Ukraine would be a flashpoint before it happened. I thus expected some sort of war cycle development involving the Middle East. Heck I even read yesterday that Abe in Japan now has enough political support to change the constitution to enable Japan to go back to an aggressive military posture against China. Now the new President of the Philippines Durterte (our former mayor of Davao City), is criticizing the USA (says the USA is creating the terrorism and radicalism) and becoming more close to China in this coming battle of USA+Japan versus China for hegemony in the Pacific.

I also became aware of the scientific breakthrough modeling the sunspot cycle, which insures we are heading into a Maunder Minimum Mini Ice Age. And also the possibility of a global pandemic.