Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 263. (Read 647196 times)

China undergoing social change.

Must read.

Hes good fpr long term forcasts roughly decade timeframe

I am not here to persuade you or anyone, you can believe in anything you want. But in case you are interested, read all my posts and you'll find plenty of facts and logic on the subject there.

I don't think you'll persuade anyone unless you use facts and logic.  Oh, wait, Donald Trump.  Nevermind.

indeed, they are hopeless and can't be helped. I just feel that charlatans and con artists like Martin Armstrong should be exposed and put in their place. He has always been a total failure in all aspects: as a trader, as a fund manager, and as a forecaster. Hell, this loser could not even get into college and now after spending many years in jail for stealing money and cheating investors he all of a sudden tells people how the world should be run. What a joke! His poorly written posts on his cheaply made blog about politics, physics, economics, and so much else are simply craving for money and so amateurish, that it is clear that MA is not only a scam but also is incompetent, delusional, and broke. People should know charlatans such as Marting Armstrong sell them nothing but bs.

Well nevertheless the BRexit will have a major impact on the global economy. There will be countries who will benefit and there will be at disadvatage. As of the condition of UK it will be a financial crisis and It will grow worse not until the brexit issue is solve. But in terms of btc there will be a possible price increase that will be brought about by the brexit. THough there is a slight possibility but it will happen soon.

His style is just the normal style of other financial experts, studying the movement of economy through history. But maybe there is new in his system that other has not yet came up. If there are then I will be happy to set a schedule on him if i am going to go full blast on my bitcoin investment. But before that I would research some success story of investors that are linked to him or those who have consulted him.

I would say,that all of us might witness a possible pullback next day,the small one actually cause i trade bitcoins
and other coins at small time frame.
Anyway the volumes get's lower because people hold their coins to see what is going to happen at halving.

Oh, I negated that back at the end of January.

We should have a few days' pullback or sideways here, but then it's back to up-n-up, with the monthly trend maybe taking a correction in the late fall.

Interesting points you make. It does seem sensible to see at least one month end above 1363 before jumping to conclusions. It's a tricky call. Right now it seems one snowflake out of place could cause an avalanche. I got enough not too much above 1050 so that I can afford to cautiously taper buy a little now and always quickly lay some off if the dead cat starts to fall again.

Well, my confidence in govt is certainly disappearing fast; not that I had a lot to begin with. Maybe most people do still trust the voting process, but it is the non-reaction to the result that will anger many, even if some are falling by the wayside now in favour of Remain. Favourite in betting (and probably not swayed by hedge fund manipulation this time, unlike the BREXIT betting) is "2018 or later or not at all": http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/article-50 Just how patient will the 17 million BREXIT voters continue to be when Article 50 is constantly kicked into the long grass. I recall MA stating that if there was no BREXIT vote there was likely to be an outbreak of civil disobedience early December - so, if the common perception is that BREXIT won't happen maybe Brits will take to the streets like in France recently. Nothing like that here in the UK been seen since the Poll Tax riots (and a rather pathetic Peasants' Revolt in 1381!). Parachute time then perhaps.

Myself, I believe whether the UK decides to BREXIT or not could turn out to be quite acedemic if the EU economy really does turn out to be as fucked as you mentioned. The average person I interact with seems to have absolutely no conception of what is going on. While I have no background in economics or finance, I just keep my eyes open and feel which way the wind's blowing. This is one black sheep who squeezed through the hedge well before the truck to the abattoir arrives!

I am not a paying subscriber so I don't know what he is writing now on his paid blog.

My guess is that the "monthly" requirement means we need to see a month above $1363, before we can conclude we aren't just witnessing a spike in volatility.

I don't think the public's confidence in government has disappeared. Rather the public is trusting the voting process enough to have 75% of the voters vote on the BREXIT referendum (a record voter participation level). And voters are becoming very passionate and engaged in the US Presidential election. So the public is focused on politics and the battle cry of voting out the incumbents. The public has not yet reached for their parachute. When they do other actions instead of political, then we will know they've abandoned governance and reach of their parachute.

At the moment, the investors are still conflicted about which is the stronger of the three: UK, EU, or USA, post BREXIT and pre-Trump election. The knee jerk reaction was to buy some gold in case the BREXIT sent the global economy into a tailspin. But the fact is that BREXIT is a non-event, because with only a 4% mandate over Remain, the Leave camp is losing momentum and leaving the EU will not happen quickly, if ever.

As time goes on, the reality of how fucked the EU economy is (incomes are now declining in EU) and how much lucrative the investing opportunity of buying US stocks is, that there will be a massive stampede into the USD and US stocks (probably starting Q1 2017 or thereabouts), which could take the luster away from gold and alternative assets such as Bitcoin.

In order to reach that lower low in gold, we need this deadcat bounce to draw in more tinfoil hats and bolster than TO DA MOON delusion.

When it becomes more clear that USD and US stocks are the only mainstream investment remaining that isn't paying negative interest rates, this could make small mcap volative assets such as gold and Bitcoin look much less attractive. Everyone is going to want to get on that bandwagon gravy train of a double or triple in US stocks. The public participation in US stocks is near an all time low. It can only go up.

I think we forget how clueless the sheeople are. They aren't even at the level of understanding what we all started to research and realize 10 years ago. Mainstream investors don't think we are on the cusp of Armageddon, otherwise the global economy would already be burnt to the ground with the loss of confidence. For them, the BREXIT was a like a one-off risk that had to be hedged with gold. The mainstream investors don't envision it as a succession of Leave votes and a devolution of the EU. The public is pissed off about the migrancy issue, but they view this as a political problem, not the economic abyss which it really is ahead.

MA from Feb 16th:

"...We need a monthly closing in gold ABOVE 1363 and a quarterly closing above 1309 before you can negate a potential collapse below $1,000..."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-what-now-february-16th-2016/

I'm wondering if here he means that the "monthly closing" is specifically for Feb (plus end of Q1) this year or ongoing, so that we should be expecting to see above 1363 July month end and beyond before being reasonably confident of avoiding a "potential collapse below $1,000".

For what it's worth - and while acknowledging the other potential factors mentioned above - I feel the probability is now in favour of it not going that low. The public confidence in govt appears to be disappearing fast, especially recently with Clinton's non-indictment; Blair's Chilcot whitewash; the non-triggering of Article 50 for Brexit, to name just three - the list goes on and on.

why waste your time on sheepies who refuse to even formulate their own investment thesis?  they will be truly lost without their MA shepherd master.... if the sheepies on this thread are really that smart & have real analytical abilities (instead of playing with words & Shakespeare play analysis), why would they need MA to constantly brainwash them on a daily basis... & quote forecasting b.s for the holy grail.

$1050 was the first target. We hit that.

MA stated it was possible for gold to decline further to $850 or even as low as $680, but this would depend on the reversal system. Just recently gold moved above the critical $1362 level, so it appears the lower lows scenario is no longer a possibility or at least we have rally period first.

The potential reason for gold to decline is when the stampede into the USD and US stocks begins in earnest (once it is clear that Europe is totally fucked), this could cause move out of anti-dollar assets such as gold and even Bitcoin. We could be seeing a bounce in gold because the outcome for the USA is still murky until after Trump wins and also because it is not clear yet to the mainstream that Europe has come off the rails. Thus indecision and move to gold instead of chasing the herd into the USD and US stocks, which will instead come later probably Q1 2017 or so, as MA has been indicating lately.

Also there rumblings out of Europe and also Trump about cracking down on regulating Bitcoin and the other means of sidestepping taxes and regulation. So that is another possible reason these assets could take a blow as capital controls are enacted and the USD and US stocks present a more sane alternative.

Actually I think that was one of his best calls. Came pretty darn close, at the bottom.

you sheep come with all sorts of excuses to justify your stupidity and deny facts and the reality. I described it here

and some variation of it is called Stockholm syndrome. I feel pity for you.

In all his bs predictions MA always refers to 10Y bonds, ok? Even in your example he shows 10Y bond chart, so don't try to defend your stupidity by using such cheap tricks. And 10Y yields are falling and at all time low, contrary to yet another failed armstrong's forecast. Don't forget, he has been telling his clients to stay away from bonds for years. And in the meantime, they turned out to be one of the best performing assets. Just like with gold, he has been short on gold below 1000 and? Gold is near 1400. And he is still in denial both on bonds and on gold.

And just like his drooling sheeps, he never admits any of his countless mistakes. All sorts of excuses, lies, twisting facts, denial, shifting dates, flip-flopping, blaming politicians, the Fed, etc. It's always something or somebody else, and never him.

Ironically, the trolls seem to post in 8.6 week waves 

You're so full of shit.

First of all you know damn well Martin's comments about manipulations are derived out of debates about the gold and silver markets. Even then, he didn't say "there are no manipulations", he simply said there are no manipulations that could ever come close to changing the overall trend. When it comes to interest rates he has ALWAYS said the real manipulators are congress and the Fed, but even they can't control the economy over the long term.

Second of all if you actually understood his work you would know that when he talks about interest rates he is referring to rates according to the market not according to what central banks try to manipulate them at. Here is his post about interest rates from January 2013, you'll notice there is a graph of 10 Year Bond Yield rates at the beginning of the post. This is what Armstrong is talking about, interest rates according to the MARKET (AKA according to reality).

"Everything is pointing to a turn in interest rates in 2013."

A TURN in interest rates, not an EXPLOSION. If you look at graphs of 10 year, 5 year, 2 year, 1 year, and 6 months bond yields you will notice that with the exception of the 10 year, they all have failed to exceed the lows they made around 2013. The longer the maturity, the longer it takes for the rates to turn. That doesn't change the fact that the ship began to turn around 2013.

You added to your post after I quoted it. And that addition is not relevant anyway.