After re-reading my first post I realized my point regarding Marting Armstrong got lost on all my exposition.
What I meant to say is that the man is onto something with his concepts on cycles. Where I depart is on the severety of the next 2 corrective waves of 2017 and 2033. Where I have read on his posts that he expects anything from at least a second Great Depression to another Dark Age, I see "only" a severe recession for 2017 and a great recession for 2033. Granted those are still very painful for us but nowhere in the same league as the Middle Ages or even the 1720-1784 corrective wave.
NOTE: rest of the post deleted.
Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 290. (Read 647062 times)
Hello guys/gentlemen... however you prefer to be addressed.
Most people seriously interested in the financial markets (even as a hobby) eventually stumble upon Martin Armstrong's work. That was my case about a year ago.
I have been reading his blog frequently since then and a few days ago I made a Google search trying to find a discussion avenue on his work, and here I am...
While I don't follow religiously the man I must concede most of his work is worth a read and he raises many valid points. As most human beings he sometimes falls for exageration of his ideas/opinions/forecasts but imho that doesn't demerit of his work overall.
NOTE: rest of the post deleted.
Most people seriously interested in the financial markets (even as a hobby) eventually stumble upon Martin Armstrong's work. That was my case about a year ago.
I have been reading his blog frequently since then and a few days ago I made a Google search trying to find a discussion avenue on his work, and here I am...
While I don't follow religiously the man I must concede most of his work is worth a read and he raises many valid points. As most human beings he sometimes falls for exageration of his ideas/opinions/forecasts but imho that doesn't demerit of his work overall.
NOTE: rest of the post deleted.
armstrongeconomics.com is returning 503 error meaning server is down.
Some predictions from MA:
So the above is the prediction for the gold & commodities low this year and for China to crash hard to 2020.
It is quite obvious the 5 year downtrend has not been broken by the recent rise:
Some predictions from MA:
"Right now, we're probably going to see the bottom in deflation and a lot of commodities in 2016-the market will move back and forth-but the problem with China is that once you start trying to pretend that you can support the market, then you raise unrealistic levels of expectations that the iron fist is more powerful than Adam Smith's invisible hand and, I'm sorry, but Adam Smith always wins. So when people realize that China can't stop a decline, then it's going to go really down-that's the problem with China right now."
So the above is the prediction for the gold & commodities low this year and for China to crash hard to 2020.
Quote from: http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/forex-forecast-for-2016-asking-the-experts/2016/01/04/02/
3. What emerging issues or trends should traders prepare for in 2016?
The final decline in commodities and wild ride in the currency markets that will swing in both directions as we approach 2017 which will be political chaos globally from election in USA, France, Germany, to the EU vote of exiting the Euro and a likely uprising in Greece.
4. Which will be the best and worst performing currencies in 2016 and why?
We are likely to see the dollar still strengthen and the shocker could be the collapse of the British pound to eventually retest the par level of 1985.
5. Which under-the-radar currency pair do you expect to make a big move in 2016?
The potential for the biggest move will be the British pound if it closes below the 14050 level at the close of 2015. However, a closing even below 14615 will be a warning that there may be a serious crack on the horizon.
10. What are your New Year's resolutions?
Look for a reasonable place to live that is perhaps not in the direct path of the political chaos and economic insanity that lies ahead and seems to burst in the air starting in 2017.
The final decline in commodities and wild ride in the currency markets that will swing in both directions as we approach 2017 which will be political chaos globally from election in USA, France, Germany, to the EU vote of exiting the Euro and a likely uprising in Greece.
4. Which will be the best and worst performing currencies in 2016 and why?
We are likely to see the dollar still strengthen and the shocker could be the collapse of the British pound to eventually retest the par level of 1985.
5. Which under-the-radar currency pair do you expect to make a big move in 2016?
The potential for the biggest move will be the British pound if it closes below the 14050 level at the close of 2015. However, a closing even below 14615 will be a warning that there may be a serious crack on the horizon.
10. What are your New Year's resolutions?
Look for a reasonable place to live that is perhaps not in the direct path of the political chaos and economic insanity that lies ahead and seems to burst in the air starting in 2017.
It is quite obvious the 5 year downtrend has not been broken by the recent rise:
I think Hidalgo makes a pretty good job at clearing it out at least in my head the Info Matter Energy trinity interactions
if you havent watch his first talk do so
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cXe8w62_ow
if you havent watch his first talk do so
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cXe8w62_ow
Excellent and I like how he speaks very quickly so I don't get bored. The chart at 20:20 is amazing. The Middle East and Australia need to tumble economically.
[...]
Never attempt to use a scientific fact to convince a man to depart from what he believes, when that man does not understand the general implications of that science.
Tis true you do not understand thus why even bother attempting it.. good comment
Never attempt to use a scientific fact to convince a man to depart from what he believes, when that man does not understand the general implications of that science.
Seems ma is curve fitting his own model chasing the trend until he gets it right then says hey look at me. Except he doesnt have a stoploss until ppl stop reading
You are aliasing because you haven't signed up for his services. Refer to my explanation of aliasing error upthread since it seems you did not take any signal processing course at the University.
I bet all he has is a simple neural network that is back propogational with some inputs that he thinks moves the market, sometiems its right sometimes its not, but not better than intuition. In any case when assessing risk in a trade which is what he is used for mainly (I disregard his shtf prophecy because he won't get timing any more right than me) then you have to use any edge you can find to your advantage and take emotion of the trade you are basing on facts from him or anyone else. I believe no traders are doing this, and I don't even believe he provides a 1% edge above any spread. So what is left is the shtf prophecies that will never come true until everyone has gone home.
About signal processing this is the rough description of the option I took in school 15 years back:
"The Digital Processing option focuses on the development of digital image, video, and audio systems especially as it relates to gaming. Emphasis is placed on development of tools for new media applications. Topics include image processing, fundamentals of audio and video streams, 3D gaming environments using DirectX, and performance improvement with concurrent programming and MMX/SSE. Various techniques are studied for making filters (Finite Impulse Filters, Infinite Impulse Filters, Gausian smoothing, First-Order and 2nd-order edge-detection), morphing and warping techniques, compression (JPEG, MPEG, Wavelets), mirrors, and picking in 3D worlds. Advanced projects are usually drawn from IEEE papers such as template matching, face recognition, image stitching, and others. Team projects in game development on phones/tablets and the PC are encouraged."
Seems ma is curve fitting his own model chasing the trend until he gets it right then says hey look at me. Except he doesnt have a stoploss until ppl stop reading
You are aliasing because you haven't signed up for his services. Refer to my explanation of aliasing error upthread since it seems you did not take any signal processing course at the University.
Seems ma is curve fitting his own model chasing the trend until he gets it right then says hey look at me. Except he doesnt have a stoploss until ppl stop reading
Readers after puking up your coffee too, I suggest framing these statements and hanging them on the wall, as a reminder when looking back some year or two from now and see how this turned out.
yep nobody needs to interpret nor comprehend nor use their power of discernment
sloanf has a boo-boo on his infantile ego.
Unlike you who just keep babbling the same bs after MA like a brainless parrot with no factual support whatsoever, I do fact-checking and share results with everybody here. In other words, my participation here brings value, and therefore I am useful and relevant. Whereas you are totally useless, since you bring nothing but bs which is even worse than being simply stupid, do not forget that.
...
Not only do I just state that you’re stupid, I prove it over and over again and it’s very easy because there is so much of subject matter every time you open your mouth.
...
Nobody needs you to interpret anything since you proved that you’re not able to read let alone comprehend.
...
Not only do I just state that you’re stupid, I prove it over and over again and it’s very easy because there is so much of subject matter every time you open your mouth.
...
Nobody needs you to interpret anything since you proved that you’re not able to read let alone comprehend.
yep nobody needs to interpret nor comprehend nor use their power of discernment
sloanf has a boo-boo on his infantile ego.
Talking about ego, guess who wrote the following statement?
"Note I am working on the conceptual issue of why that sock puppet user with no reputation and who is noise for us can even reach this sub-community of ours in this thread."
Hint: A coder
Yep. That quoted issue will be solved soon with code. And if successful, I will be about 1 million times more wealthy than you.
MA is also a coder.
Mark Zuckerberg is also a coder.
Seems you don't like coders, perhaps you can't code?
You are implicitly bragging that money mgmt trumps coding and marketing insight. I think any survey of reality will instruct you otherwise.
Readers after puking up your coffee too, I suggest framing these statements and hanging them on the wall, as a reminder when looking back some year or two from now and see how this turned out.
yep nobody needs to interpret nor comprehend nor use their power of discernment
sloanf has a boo-boo on his infantile ego.
Unlike you who just keep babbling the same bs after MA like a brainless parrot with no factual support whatsoever, I do fact-checking and share results with everybody here. In other words, my participation here brings value, and therefore I am useful and relevant. Whereas you are totally useless, since you bring nothing but bs which is even worse than being simply stupid, do not forget that.
...
Not only do I just state that you’re stupid, I prove it over and over again and it’s very easy because there is so much of subject matter every time you open your mouth.
...
Nobody needs you to interpret anything since you proved that you’re not able to read let alone comprehend.
...
Not only do I just state that you’re stupid, I prove it over and over again and it’s very easy because there is so much of subject matter every time you open your mouth.
...
Nobody needs you to interpret anything since you proved that you’re not able to read let alone comprehend.
yep nobody needs to interpret nor comprehend nor use their power of discernment
sloanf has a boo-boo on his infantile ego.
Talking about ego, guess who wrote the following statement?
"Note I am working on the conceptual issue of why that sock puppet user with no reputation and who is noise for us can even reach this sub-community of ours in this thread."
Hint: A coder, an investor wannabe who wrote a brunch of articles that nobody really cares, & someone who has nil professional experience in managing money, and still thinks that he is some big f because he is a MA whisperer ... oh please please check out my real life identify & achievements, me me a super intelligent being, my name is SMIII Gump.
here is the latest one. He has been preaching gold below 1000 since at least 2013 as you can check above. It never happened, of course. Now he is saying gold should fall to 850 by March 2016.
Gold declined from $1600+ to ~$1100 since 2011 which was the peak and decline he predicted.
If gold doesn't go below $1000 this year, then you can claim part of his prediction failed, otherwise those quoted words above from you have been framed for my future gloating.
And how about the slingshot MA has been preaching since last August? Where is it? And as always when his prediction fails as usual, he simply shifts dates the way he did with the Dow at 40K
How many times have you been told that MA has written innumerable times that TIME and PRICE are orthogonal. The point of his models are to define structure and the define scenarios wherein that structure is fulfilled. I was reading his blog in August 2012 through the end of that year wherein he made it clear that 40k was not yet a prediction and was the maximum possible and that we'd have to wait for 2014 year end closing to know if that move could occur before 2015,75 or after in the 2017 timeframe. There were 3 scenarios he wrote about in one of his blog posts.
You try to grab data from posts out-of-context.
Do you understand the concept of anti-aliasing? You are aliasing (point sampling) the computer model with insufficient data points. Please go read the Wikipedia entry for the Shannon-Nyquist theorem (I helped write it).
Educate yourself sloanf.
Readers after puking up your coffee too, I suggest framing these statements and hanging them on the wall, as a reminder when looking back some year or two from now and see how this turned out.
yep nobody needs to interpret nor comprehend nor use their power of discernment
sloanf has a boo-boo on his infantile ego.
yep nobody needs to interpret nor comprehend nor use their power of discernment
sloanf has a boo-boo on his infantile ego.
By this, you yet again prove that you’re as useless as you’re stupid. What is the use of your post and almost all of your other posts? What value do you bring for readers? Did you provide any factual support for any of your numerous claims? Where are your facts? For example, where is your proof of this claim
It became clear on the 2014 close (which btw he nailed the price of oil for the close at $54, predicted publicly in his blog when oil was $100+), that the former scenario was the most likely.
and this one?
This is all in the movie and the movie had to buy insurance about the facts being properly vetted. So the movie has already been vetted by attorneys working on behalf of the insurance company.
When I comment on how stupid you are, I am not trying to insult you. Since you:
1. have been buying bs from MA, a convicted fraudster and an extremely terrible forecaster, for years
2. even brag by this fact (1) in front of everybody as if it was an achievement
3. did not do even a basic fact-checking because of your inability to do so due to lack of common sense and any form of critical and independent thinking
4. deny all the facts and evidence collected, brought and very carefully explained to you by many others
5. keep spreading MA bs promoting his scam all over the place for free despite (4)
you embrace the very definition of stupidity. And since you have been stupid for so long, it must be your normal and pretty comfortable state and therefore cannot be an insult for you. And the reason I have written the above is not to humiliate you or make you feel bad. As I said, I don’t care about you because it’s not important because it’s not the purpose of this thread. My only intention was to prove my claims about your stupidity and that’s what I have done. And now once that's done, let’s move on to the core subject.
In addition to these proofs about MA’s failed predictions on gold:
This goes back to 2008 http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/its-just-time-martin-armstrong.pdf when he predicted 2500 and 5000 in gold. Notice also his “brilliant and super precise” forecast on the Dow ranging between 3.5-35K.
Now take a look at this http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/will-gold-reach-5000-809.pdf. He finally gets more specific by saying gold “is still poised to rally to at least test the $3,000 level if not much higher.” At least! And of course he yet again mentions 5000 levels. Of course, as we now know, it was yet another totally wrong prediction.
Here (in 2011) http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2011/03/armstrongeconomics-how-when-030111.pdf he praises gold as THE BEST of all worlds for a bull market and even goes as far as to predict 12K (not just 5K this time!) by 2015\2016.
Now take a look at this http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/will-gold-reach-5000-809.pdf. He finally gets more specific by saying gold “is still poised to rally to at least test the $3,000 level if not much higher.” At least! And of course he yet again mentions 5000 levels. Of course, as we now know, it was yet another totally wrong prediction.
Here (in 2011) http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2011/03/armstrongeconomics-how-when-030111.pdf he praises gold as THE BEST of all worlds for a bull market and even goes as far as to predict 12K (not just 5K this time!) by 2015\2016.
but since you haven’t read it apparently, let me read it for you. Here (the report is dated Oct10, 2008) http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/its-just-time-martin-armstrong.pdf MA says “gold is likely to go to $2,500 or jump beyond even $5,000”. By the way, he also says this “The reaction should have been to the downside into 2008, with a consolidation into early 2009, but another serious decline is still possible going into June 13th, 2011. Do not expect the real estate markets to recover by much.” All turned out to be false.
Here (August 28th, 2009) http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/will-gold-reach-5000-809.pdf MA says “It is coming into its own and is still poised to rally to at least test the $3,000 level if not much higher.” And “Government has promised the moon, and can no more keep their promise that Santa really eats the cookies. When there is no one who buys the US debt, that is when the ceiling will fall. We will see this most likely after 2010 and it appears the end may be 2015-2016. A 21 year bull market in stocks points to 2015 and a 17.2 year high in gold points to 2016. This does not negate the decline after Labor Day back into 2010 that seems to be shaping up”.
Now, let me spell it for you so you finally understand. “No demand for the US debt and collapse by 2015-2016”. Completely the opposite happened. “Gold 17.2 year high at least 3K and much higher in 2016”. Completely the opposite happened. “Stocks high in 2015” but earlier he shifted the high to 2017 and now is shifting to 2020-2021.
Here (March 1, 2011) http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2011/03/armstrongeconomics-how-when-030111.pdf he says that gold is “THE BEST of all worlds for a bull market” and “"there does not appear to be a likelihood of any real BEAR MARKET" (Notice, that was just 6 months before the bear market started). Also, “the two patterns are either we stay in the primary channel for right now and test the support at the 1150 or 1250 level at worst, or we blast out the top of this main channel, fall back to find it providing support, and then we will be on our way to at least $5000 and may be $12000 by 2015/2016.”. Not only neither of his options worked out, the opposite happened. Notice this time he does not use “may be”, “some time in the future”, “short\long-term” or any of his usual tricks. He clearly says “will”, “at least $5000”, and “by 2015\2016”.
here is the latest one. He has been preaching gold below 1000 since at least 2013 as you can check above. It never happened, of course. Now he is saying gold should fall to 850 by March 2016. The reality is that gold is not only not falling but was the best performing asset in January according to Deutsche Bank http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-01/best-and-worst-performing-assets-misrable-january and keeps rising. And as a reminder, we are in February now which means we have only one month till March to see gold at 850.
And how about the slingshot MA has been preaching since last August? Where is it? And as always when his prediction fails as usual, he simply shifts dates the way he did with the Dow at 40K, the slingshot last year, and so on. It will be interesting to see what he is going to come up with this time: flip-flopping, shifting dates, inflation adjusted\international value bs or something else. Can’t wait.
Readers after puking up your coffee too, I suggest framing these statements and hanging them on the wall, as a reminder when looking back some year or two from now and see how this turned out.
yep nobody needs to interpret nor comprehend nor use their power of discernment
sloanf has a boo-boo on his infantile ego.
Unlike you who just keep babbling the same bs after MA like a brainless parrot with no factual support whatsoever, I do fact-checking and share results with everybody here. In other words, my participation here brings value, and therefore I am useful and relevant. Whereas you are totally useless, since you bring nothing but bs which is even worse than being simply stupid, do not forget that.
...
Not only do I just state that you’re stupid, I prove it over and over again and it’s very easy because there is so much of subject matter every time you open your mouth.
...
Nobody needs you to interpret anything since you proved that you’re not able to read let alone comprehend.
...
Not only do I just state that you’re stupid, I prove it over and over again and it’s very easy because there is so much of subject matter every time you open your mouth.
...
Nobody needs you to interpret anything since you proved that you’re not able to read let alone comprehend.
yep nobody needs to interpret nor comprehend nor use their power of discernment
sloanf has a boo-boo on his infantile ego.
The high cost of "refugees" maybe more suitable for the economic totalitarianism thread.
https://youtu.be/BI0CJreiS1U
Socialism is absolutely the only thing to blame for this mess.
Tldw: these people are not being helped when they are imported to the west.
https://youtu.be/BI0CJreiS1U
Socialism is absolutely the only thing to blame for this mess.
Tldw: these people are not being helped when they are imported to the west.
And now, once millions of people are trying to leave the bombed out wrecks of their countries (not an 'invasion' btw TPTB)
One perspective's migration and refuge is another's invasion. Ask the Balkans about that (their history is where the term Balkanization originates).
Raped German females certainly don't view the event as anything less than an invasion. Open your bleeding heart for them too.
It's now 2016.08. Something begun in 2015.75?
Nope. Just some insignificant thing about 1.1 million immigrants invading Germany by foot from the Middle East and a minor skirmish raping dozens or 100s of German virgins whilst the German "men" were too emasculated (and down on Xanax) to lift a finger.
Oh and the tiny, African state of China's economy collapsing with commodities continuing to decline. Too insignificant to be worthy of our attention.
Please return to your regularly scheduled dose of
Another excellent piece, trollerc. Thanks for posting it.
Europe is on the edge of becoming a neutered country, incapable of maintaining its society along the norms of "The West". 5 - 10 years after, they will become Islamicized. It's already starting to happen, yet the Socialist Retards running EVERYTHING over there are hypnotized...
I wonder, trollerc, if the USA and/or Australia will allow their women to be harassed like that. My guess is "no", but who knows. At least in the West or South in the USA the Musloids would get an immediate ticket to their heaven, where their 72 goats await them.
In regards to the linked article thanks for the link. Not completely my cup of tea but I agree with some of the issues raised re: political correctness, but mostly I wanted to follow up on a point raised.
The author says that basically no one is willing to tell the truth apart from Eastern European leaders. I think it is worse than that, I think that most leaders are populist bullshitters and they do not wish to examine the deeper truth lest it take away their power
That truth is that wars cause refugees. Can you remember the last great refugee crisis out of the middle east, pre Gulf Wars? Probably Lebanon in the 80's. Another war.
This then begs the question of who is at war? It is the Psuedo Capitalist West - having invaded 2 countries without armies* (Afghanistan & Iraq*), destabilised / overthrown 2 others indirectly through arming militia's (Libya & Syria) and economically destabilising another (Iran). Haven't touched Saudi, the financier of most of the terrorism resulting from Western foreign policy.
So why are we at war with them? It is all geopolitics, an attempt at securing power in the region, destabilising / removing threats and maintaining hegemony. This is loosely justified by nationalism and fear "they are coming to get us". And who is "they"? It keeps changing.....Dictators with WMD's, Al Qaeda, Khosoran Group, Dictators gassing citizens, AQIS, Al Nusra, Dictators looking to reintroduce gold for oil, ISIS. The list ever morphs
Then we get to, well our economy is toast - how much is this war costing us? Trillions of dollars!! While the economy is in the toilet we are spending trillions on bombing the citizens of countries who haven't got a pot to piss in anyway?
And now, once millions of people are trying to leave the bombed out wrecks of their countries (not an 'invasion' btw TPTB) the sheeple of the West start getting belligerent about how can we afford it? Blame socialism!! How about we blame the spineless creatures who make the decisions to go to war? Coincidentally the very same people who profit from such wars, the same who bring about so much death and destruction and who forment so much hatred that ends up as blowback, which then serves to justify the war in the first place.
This is something I find so shortsighted about the libertarians, free marketers and Rothbardians. I read one guy writing that its very simple, if you cant afford to emigrate from these places just stay home because you're not invited and nobody should be forced to pay for helping you. What a load of ideological, hypocritical, high horse rubbish.
How about we take a little bit of the money used to build bombs and redirect it to either helping people or stopping the wars and rebuilding their countries so they can go back to where they came from? Why can we find trillions to bail out fucking banksters but have an aneurysm over refugees?
These refugees are not perfect but nor are they all rapists. They bring their own customs and bigotry with them and this can be very hard to tolerate. I do not know the solution but I know that we are blaming the symptom without moving against the deeper cause.
It's now 2016.08. Something begun in 2015.75?
Nope. Just some insignificant thing about 1.1 million immigrants invading Germany by foot from the Middle East and a minor skirmish raping dozens or 100s of German virgins whilst the German "men" were too emasculated (and down on Xanax) to lift a finger.
Oh and the tiny, African state of China's economy collapsing with commodities continuing to decline. Too insignificant to be worthy of our attention.
Please return to your regularly scheduled dose of
Another excellent piece, trollerc. Thanks for posting it.
Europe is on the edge of becoming a neutered country, incapable of maintaining its society along the norms of "The West". 5 - 10 years after, they will become Islamicized. It's already starting to happen, yet the Socialist Retards running EVERYTHING over there are hypnotized...
I wonder, trollerc, if the USA and/or Australia will allow their women to be harassed like that. My guess is "no", but who knows. At least in the West or South in the USA the Musloids would get an immediate ticket to their heaven, where their 72 goats await them.
It's now 2016.08. Something begun in 2015.75? Are we dead yet?
Notice how the trolls use newbie sock puppet accounts. And they entirely ignore what I wrote (did sloanf respond to the real estate post, did he read AnonyMint's archives, did he stop citing blog posts out-of-context, etc).
I responded to both (hello!), try to read it even if you’re not quite able to:
Again, all you do is just making claims with nothing to back them up. Bring everything relevant here (not just random texts, opinions and your claims supported by nothing but your or MA’s claims) because this thread is for exactly that purpose and that’s what we are discussing here. And be specific.
and here
How many times do we have to go through this? As with everything else, as we have seen above, you are not able to get things from the first/second/third time. Ok, let’s do it again.
That real estate picture that MA claims to have drawn in 1979 uses the Case-Shiller home price index. Back then there was nothing like “internationally inflation adjusted value“ and nowhere was it mentioned by MA or anybody. He started to exploit this trick relatively recently when it became obvious that he failed yet another of his numerous predictions so he had to cover his ass by making it up. Interestingly, he uses that IIM trick on real estate because, as he argues, real estate attracts global money but at the same time he does not use IIM when he makes predictions on the Dow, Gold, Nikkei and so on (which also attract global capital).
Now, if you compare the index and the picture, you’ll easily find out that they do not match (put it mildly). First, the index had been rising without any drop up until 2006 (the MA’s graph predicted drops after every 8.6 years). Second, the absolute high according to MA should have been reached in 2007.15, but in reality the S&P Case-Shiller topped in 2006 https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CSUSHPINSA, http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller, and the original Case-Shiller topped in 2005 http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
Third, the index significantly recovered and keeps rising, contrary to what MA predicted.
Here is another dirty trick that MA used. When real estate picked he did not say anything. Only after the crisis hit and real estate plunged he came out and claimed that he’d predicted the top. Not only that, he claimed that he predicted the top to the day referencing to (wait!) the S&P Reit index. Again, there was nothing about “internationally inflation adjusted value“ or any of such bs. But wait, there’s more. The S&P Reit includes not only home RE, but everything else such as residential, office, health-care, hotels, etc. In other words, from very beginning he used the Case-Shiller (only home RE). Then when it didn’t work out, he switched to the S&P Reit which tracks all RE, and now he switches again by bs people with a new trick called “internationally inflation adjusted value“.
I am curious to see what else is he going to come up with when his post-2015 forecast eventually fails.
They will destroy the thread and there is nothing I can do to stop them. Apparently someone (Goldman Sachs?) has paid them to slander MA and attempt to control perceptions.
Unlike you who just keep babbling the same bs after MA like a brainless parrot with no factual support whatsoever, I do fact-checking and share results with everybody here. In other words, my participation here brings value, and therefore I am useful and relevant. Whereas you are totally useless, since you bring nothing but bs which is even worse than being simply stupid, do not forget that.
sloanf states that I am stupid everyone here knows I am not stupid, so I hope he realizes he just shot his credibility in the foot.
Not only do I just state that you’re stupid, I prove it over and over again and it’s very easy because there is so much of subject matter every time you open your mouth.
You did not comprehend what he wrote there:
What he was saying is that as the war model enters the hot war phase in 2017, oil may rally off the lows. And indeed this may still happen. His model has always been about private assets, USD, US stocks, and gold rallying in 2017 as the rest of the world sinks into an economic collapse cauldron and the Cycle of War. This was an orthogonal shorter-term cycle than the longer-term cycle which is that oil peaked in 2009 and would be on an overall downward trend towards $35 (then $25). Read more carefully. He didn't write that oil will rally "from now" into 2017. He stated only "to rally into 2017" meaning it is an event that his computer indicated would happen in 2017. That is a shorter-term cycle superimposed on the longer-term cycle which he stated was a peak in 2009.
Quote
The USA is amazingly going to produce more oil that Saudi Arabia and Russia making it the largest producer in the world according to all the data so far with just Four years into the shale revolution.
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Nevertheless, oil peaked intraday in 2009 but the highest yearly close came in 2011. It is poised to rally into 2017 and it appears this is lining up with our war models. We will be looking at this market and other in the near future. The patterns are interesting and the fundamentals may speak of increased supply in the USA, but the price may be driven by other events especially when we have people like Lindsey Graham willing to kill everyone’s children for his personal hatred of the US constitution and the world
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Nevertheless, oil peaked intraday in 2009 but the highest yearly close came in 2011. It is poised to rally into 2017 and it appears this is lining up with our war models. We will be looking at this market and other in the near future. The patterns are interesting and the fundamentals may speak of increased supply in the USA, but the price may be driven by other events especially when we have people like Lindsey Graham willing to kill everyone’s children for his personal hatred of the US constitution and the world
What he was saying is that as the war model enters the hot war phase in 2017, oil may rally off the lows. And indeed this may still happen. His model has always been about private assets, USD, US stocks, and gold rallying in 2017 as the rest of the world sinks into an economic collapse cauldron and the Cycle of War. This was an orthogonal shorter-term cycle than the longer-term cycle which is that oil peaked in 2009 and would be on an overall downward trend towards $35 (then $25). Read more carefully. He didn't write that oil will rally "from now" into 2017. He stated only "to rally into 2017" meaning it is an event that his computer indicated would happen in 2017. That is a shorter-term cycle superimposed on the longer-term cycle which he stated was a peak in 2009.
Nobody needs you to interpret anything since you proved that you’re not able to read let alone comprehend. Nowhere does it say “off the lows”, $35, $25 and other bs that you made up. It clearly says that "oil is poised to rally into 2017". And also in that post there is no any indication of the collapse which then had already begun.
Go find the blog post where oil was still $100+ and he predicted the $54 close for 2014.
You make empty claims and you are telling me to find proof in support of your claims? It is your job to find them, not mine. So go and bring them here. It will be very interesting to look at them especially knowing full well that they don’t exist.
On your way there, also bring names of insurance companies and lawyers that as you claim vetted whatever along with everything else whatever you call facts.
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