Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 292. (Read 647196 times)

Oh here we go again. You think if you keep repeating something, it somehow will turn into facts. Show me the documentation and everything else that prove your and MA’s claims. I brought to you several sources on which I based my conclusion here

You should really start learning how to read, otherwise it’s going to get even worse. All you mentioned is exactly what MA claims.  He claims that he is dealing with empirical science like physics. That’s why he always brings a lot of bs on Mandelbrot set and other stuff everywhere regardless of any relevance. He claims that markets are not random walk and everything not only can be predicted but is predicted by him and\or his computer (which nobody has ever seen). He also claims that all those variables are just noise, market manipulations don’t exist\or don’t affect markets, natural disasters go in cycles and therefore can be predicted and are predicted by him and so on. That’s precisely what he is selling: the claim that markets can be predicted like physics and is predicted by him and only by him\his computer.

Real Estate Cycles & International Value
Posted on January 21, 2016 by Martin Armstrong   

Case Shiller 1890


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, your real estate cycle turned up from 1955. It does not match the Case-Shiller index which peaked in 1890s and bottomed in 1920 and then began to rally after 1940 into the 1955 period. Something seem strange with that index given the huge Florida real estate bubble which burst in 1927. Can you explain why the Case-Shiller seems to be off so much? Here is a chart that has been going around the Web.

Thanks



ANSWER: This is the typical problem with people creating an index and then trying to extend it back in time. They ALWAYS ignore the currency and project purely a domestic view. During the 1890s, J.P. Morgan had to bail out the U.S. Treasury for it was dead broke. As people feared the government would declare bankruptcy, private assets rose in NOMINAL terms. This was matched by the massive exit of foreign capital from the USA.

Florida-1The Case-Shiller index bottoms in 1920, but this was the point of a massive rise in the dollar’s value. Foreign capital poured into the USA to park because of World War I. This, in turn, led to wild speculation in Florida, which as you correctly stated, burst in 1927. Because rhis isdex is national, it also suppresses regional booms. As real estate peaked in Florida, the hot money then shifted to stocks creating the Phase Transition into 1929. It was this capital flows between asset classes into stocks where that concentration led to the 1929 bubble.

The Case-Shiller index, which suddenly rose from the Great Depression, does not take into account the dollar devaluation that sparked that rise as it did in equities. That was virtually a 60% devaluation of the dollar that moved it from $20 to $35 on a gold standard by FDR. Was that rise “real” or currency related? Sorry, the real rise begins post-war from 1955. That was the real housing boom.

The Case-Shiller does not accurately reflect the changes in currency. One must look at everything in terms of international value before they can see if they really made money or just broke even because the currency declined. From a value perspective, the 1929 high was more than three times that of the 1890s. So the high of the 1890s was purely a rise due to the collapse in the dollar; it was the hallmark of the panic of 1893 and was best expressed in Grover Cleveland’s speech before Congress.

We use international value rather than nominal local currency. If you fail to use the international value, the end result will always be erroneous for you will NEVER see when foreign capital will rush in or flee. You simply must look at the world in this manner or you will lose your shirt and everything else. Those who thought gold was in a bull market after the 1980 Crash, lost a lot because they failed to grasp international value.

Have you ever wondered if MA was held in contempt not because he refused to turn over the source code to his supercomputer... but there is NONE to begin with, and he is trying to salvage his last ounce of dignity & leave an exit door for himself, so that he can still continue to hold conferences & sell the world a story about the future like what he is doing now?

Also he was never convicted (certainly not in an open court with a jury of his peers, but rather the corrupt Goldman Sachs-affiliated judge kicked out all the media!). He was held illegally in contempt-of-court for 7 years because he refused to turn over the source code to his computer model to Goldman Sachs. And when they found out that his case was about to be heard by the Supreme Court, they had him beat up and his teeth knocked out in prison so that he would accede to a plea bargain deal. He was coerced.

Illogical. AltcoinUK is not selling you anything. He is rebutting your trolling. You are on a crusade to slander Armstrong (and without a coherent understanding of the facts). And now you stoop to asserting that rebutting you is akin to selling something.

You do not like that MA promotes his work. Fine. So go preach on a soapbox some where. We are telling you that we find some value in reading his blog. His long-term predictions have been particularly insightful (and I have refuted all your lies/misconceptualizations about that).

It’s all MA claims with no proof as usual. He always makes claims with no factual evidence whatsoever (just like with historic data, supercomputer, trading performance, $1trln under contract, advising for top government officials and central bankers around the world, etc). After all, have you ever heard of any convicted criminal admitting they were convicted legally? As for MA, read the articles below

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/a/martin_a_armstrong/index.html
http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.ru/2006/08/enigma-of-martin-armstrong.html  
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-09-28/felon-forecaster-blogs-on-8-6-year-economic-cycles-after-11-years-in-jail

and consider this:
1.   He was caught not by the Wallstreet, corrupt bankers or anyone affiliated with the US authorities (so it’s yet another MA bs that it was the US bankers plot against him) but by the Japanese watchdogs and prosecutors.
2.   No media (both then and now, both independent and dependent) ever said he was clean and innocent (in fact, they say the opposite)
3.   None of his Japanese clients ever said anything in defense of MA. In fact, nobody said anything except his mother.
4.   If the whole thing was set up against him personally (as he claims), why is it that two of his workers and his bank were also pleaded guilty.
5.   If the plea was forced, as you say, why those two workers also pleaded guilty? Were all their teeth also bashed and all that?
6.   If he was clean, why “Republic Securities, now a unit of HSBC Holdings Plc, also pleaded guilty, admitting it helped Armstrong swindle clients. It paid $569 million in restitution.”? Again, the bank admitted that MA did swindle clients. Not as you claim
7.   Finally, if everything was so illegal against him, why didn’t he sue them all? At least the media? Or at least present all documents and evidence he has to the public so independent lawyers could look at it and tell their views?
Because he did cheat Japanese investors and he knows it. Look what he said “he can’t be liable for fraud or running a Ponzi scheme because he wasn’t acting as a money manager.” Notice, that he does not say “because he did not run\did not do any wrongdoing” but because he wasn’t a money manager. A technical aspect.

This is all in the movie and the movie had to buy insurance about the facts being properly vetted. So the movie has already been vetted by attorneys working on behalf of the insurance company.

sloanf, here you go for a concrete long-term prediction from Armstrong's Socrates computer.

interesting, BTC has begun its descent.

I'd quess the number of people that will accept BTC at localbitcoins.com is roughly the same (within an order-of-magnitude) as the number of pawnshops in the world that will take your gold coin. Here in the Philippines I bet you'd be lucky to get 50% of the spot price value at a pawnshop.

The key difference in my mind is that gold you can find a physical buyer that you can trust won't kill you (e.g. a storefront pawnshop or gold dealer). Whereas meetups with Bitcoin are going to be with a stranger (and risky for both parties). This is important in the sense of needing to get cash and not wanting it to pass through a bank account.

Once the NWO outlaws cash (and regulates gold dealer, but the lack of cash will kill the black markets too), then there will be no advantage for gold any more. You will have to sell it for digital cash. Barter becomes extremely rare to find.

OROBTC, I am sorry to tell you that gold is dying. The digital cash age will kill it and everyone will throw their gold into the streets as the Bible says. We may not get there entirely though until 2032 or so.

OROBTC we already discussed in the past that your holdings of gold are a single-digit % of your net worth and are held for diversification against abnormal outcomes and not for gains. My writings about price is for those speculating on price because they are investing for gains.

Note though I do think gold will be entirely banned. I don't know how long it will take for the NWO to reach this level of control. Might not be within your and my lifetimes given we are 50+. However, the digital control over the world is accelerating. The Corporate Fascism controls every nook and cranny. (this is presuming that decentralization technologies can't take back the upper hand)

Since you are a Bible believer, I assume you are aware that it says everyone will throw their gold & silver into the street. And no merchant will be able to conduct commerce. That is the digital control system at the end game of totalitarian collapse. I am not sure if we will get there any time soon. No one knows for sure.

What a shame to leave a worthless relic to your children when you die. I'd take profits at $5000 and leave them some land or something they can use. Then again, you've stated you are already diversified in real estate. So I understand your logic. It is I guess good to have some gold coins as a "get out of Dodge" insurance policy. And that is what MA advocates as well. His gold price models are for those who are paper trading gold, not for those buying coins which he has said he gives as gifts for the kids in the family.

I guess you saw this (~March low for gold < $850 still on tap) and I am expecting a possible collapse in crypto currency then too (but not certain that the gold model applies also to crypto assets yet I think it does since it is essentially the same market for alternative private assets and the first to be sold in a liquidity contagion coming apparently in March):

Mmm, hmm.  Yes, even though I look rather favorably on Armstrong's ideas (even where I disagree, at least somewhat [gold])

Naturally, the gold promoters are out in force. The problem with their theories has always been that they are dead wrong. The REAL BULL MARKET will see the metals rise with equities. Right now, they focus on the stock market and yell buy gold because a depression is here. Here wee need to see a weekly closing above the 1143 level to raise any hope of a temporary low. Without that, we have a [potential] turning point in February which can be a high with a low moving into the next Benchmark target. A closing for January below the 1103 level will warn there is inherent weakness still lingering within this market. Next month, watch the 1097 level for that is key support. Break that and its looking into a low into the second benchmark.

I understand what he is referring to when it comes to time and price. In the example I gave it was simply Euro vs USD, nothing more complicated. Admittedly, his timing wasn't definite but it was pretty clear that he expected it to breakdown soon, certainly not years later, as he has now adjusted it to.

You yet again prove that you work for MA by selling me his conferences.

MA is an uneducated convicted fraudster and con artist who lost hundreds of millions and cheated Japanese investors.

Now it's getting more interesting. So you attend his conferences for several thousands, would you let us know then if there was anything new or useful for you? Did you make any use of knowledge you allegedly acquired in terms of profit\loss? Have you met any government or world's largest banks there?


You yet again prove that you work for MA by selling me his conferences. Don't you still realize that you are used not just once but twice? But that aside, name me his serious clients (apart from yourself, of course) and who are those clients that are with him for 30 years?


The purpose of this thread is as it states in the very first message "views on his ideas" on MA. And I am the one who provides not just views or opinions but facts citing sources and all. I provide relevant content for this thread, so my participation here is relevant and useful. If you disagree, bring facts with sources so everybody could look into them and update their views on MA.

As much as as you can know about them when you sit next to them as well as networking with them during an Armstrong's conference.

I suggest to get out from your troll cave and attend his next conference. You will meet me there (yes, some retail traders like me attend his conference), which will provide you a wonderful opportunity to apologize in person for your personal insults, and most importantly you will meet some of his serious clients there.

In the meantime until you save up your high school lunch money for the conference you need to fuck off from here son. Your personal insults and trolling is not cool. You feel it is important to reiterate your wisdom about Armstrong and to tell us how stupid we are here that we find more or less value in Armstrong's work, which is a sick fuck troll attitude. Open the "I am so smart and have proof that anybody who find value in Armstrong's work is stupid" thread and discuss there why Armstrong is a useless analyst. This is the thread where we are more or less positive about Armstrong's work. You made it clear that in your opinion there is no value in Armstrong's work. Therefore, your work is done here - reiterating your opinion is patronizing in a thread which purpose is to take the positives from Armstrong's work.

What do you know about his clients and what could you possibly know?

Stock market trading is not for people without money. Please note I am not saying you are the usual high school or university age youngster of the forum nor I am saying you don't have money ... all I am saying is if $750.00 per annum is "too much of my money" for an investment service then I think you fundamentally misunderstand the environment in which Armstrong operates.

The reason of that, because he is not fucking Isaac Newton was sitting under an apple tree, and then a fucking apple fell on his head to allow him concluding the Universal Law of Gravitation i.e. he is not dealing with empirical science like physics is, but he is dealing with all variables of the stock market dynamics including but not limited to earning reports, non farm payroll statistics, politics, corporate interests, central bank interventions, wars, scams, market manipulation, innovations, lies from the Chinese government about GDP figures, natural disasters and last but not least the often unpredictable crowd behaviour.  

makes significant revisions to those predictions

AltcoinUK:

Obviously not a charity, but he has stated many times that he was doing this strictly as a "service" to others and doesn't need money since he can play markets so easily and successfully. I was being a bit of a smart ass when I said that (philanthropic).  What I was talking about was more to point out what I see as another inconsistency. He makes many short and short-medium term predictions and then often, somewhat subtly, makes significant revisions to those predictions. I think his long term views make a lot of sense and I believe that he probably is one of the best LT forecasters out there. I am going to purchase the trader service but I will probably hang back a little bit to see how things are working out before I risk too much of my money. If the service is able to live up to the hype then the price paid for it will be the bargain of the century. Proof is in the pudding.

Fred