Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 291. (Read 647062 times)

Very difficult to understand what Martin Armstrong is saying for the first minute or so, then the audio improves somewhat.

I liked his point about the reason the 99% have no networth because their savings was invested in Social Security (via the FICA tax) and not invested in the DJIA when it was 1000 (now ~16,000).

He explains the plan that elite have been implementing:

...

Armstrong talking at an independent Tedx event:

http://tedxtalks.ted.com/video/Vigilante-of-Democracy-Martin-A;search%3Ax%20martin%20ar

The main thrust of this talk is invasive & corrupt government mixed in with some economic and political history.

Which I don't understand, we supposed to be here more or less libertarians who question the status quo and don't subscribe to totalitarianism. I guess in the first place, the democratic and decentralised manner of Bitcoin - which is of course a myth, but that is an entirely different matter - brought us to this forum. So here we are in this libertarian, rebellious forum ... and Martin Armstrong's court case epitomises what libertarians and open minded individuals dislike in the government of this 21st century:  the institutionalised corruption, unfairness and abuse of power. All these are -  combined with the disgusting role of the current Goldman Sachs director Alan Cohen -  the very attributes of Armstrong's court case. And then the sockpuppet wankers make the conclusion that Armstrong is a convicted criminal. Oh dear ... what would be internet without these idiot trolls.

Armstrong has on numerous occasions refuted the manipulation theory. Sorry even Goldman Sachs can't control the public opinion here in this thread with paid sockpuppet trolls. The entropy of the universe is unbounded.


MA has not predicted a continuous decline in the S&P (or anything), nor a continuous rise in anything. Markets zigzag and shorting expires. You seem to not comprehend some basic facts about trading.

And sloanf also forgets there are shorter-term cycles superimposed on longer-term cycles.

Don't be upset about these sockpuppets. They can't even afford $40 to watch the Armstrong movie.
It says a lot about them that they flood the thread with sockpuppet accounts.
When a sockpuppet is provoking you by saying that you are stupid then we just need to ignore them.

These things you bring up are not even conspiracy there just basic economic cycles, it only seems distorted because of social engineering and mainstream propaganda.

Let's be honest here the only real investments in investing is never 100%, anything 99% and below is just based on *faith/luck/etc* and can never be proven that is unless you are an insider.

I'm just disappointed instead of spending your time here you just don't short the S&P and get rich based on the information you possess, then network and mentor down with systems invested with that money instead of doing it alone.

You did not comprehend what he wrote there:


Go find the blog post where oil was still $100+ and he predicted the $54 close for 2014. Also you are misconstruing what he is intending to convey in the above posts. The longer-term prediction was not changed by what he wrote in those posts.

In the first link MA wrote that if the $82 level is broken then a sharp decline will result (which is consistent with his prior prediction of a $54 closing for 2014):


My thought exactly. How many more times sloanf?

Notice how the trolls use newbie sock puppet accounts. And they entirely ignore what I wrote (did sloanf respond to the real estate post, did he read AnonyMint's archives, did he stop citing blog posts out-of-context, etc).

They will destroy the thread and there is nothing I can do to stop them.  Apparently someone (Goldman Sachs?) has paid them to slander MA and attempt to control perceptions.

I won't waste time fighting them in a social network (forum) which allows anonymous sock puppets to troll our sub-community.

sloanf states that I am stupid  everyone here knows I am not stupid, so I hope he realizes he just shot his credibility in the foot.

i see that you are deeply distressed... get a hold of your emotion.

Why do you still have to prove your stupidity and embarrass yourself in front of everybody over and over again if everything was clear long time ago?


Nevertheless, let me once again show everybody how stupid you are. Here http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/22328 already after the YTD-peak he said oil would rise into 2017 (the opposite to what happened). This proves beyond all doubts MA did not predict the collapse. Here in September when oil was at 90 he still did not see the upcoming collapse http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/23450 and even thought it might have been a plot against Russia. Here in November, oil at 80, he still does not get it http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/24733. And only here http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/25545 in December when oil collapsed below 65 he started to acknowledge ”a serious trend change is potentially on the horizon”. Notice, below 65, and not at 100+ as you claim.

Will you finally stop here before you drop to a new low?

Again, all you do is just making claims with nothing to back them up. Bring everything relevant here (not just random texts, opinions and your claims supported by nothing but your or MA’s claims) because this thread is for exactly that purpose and that’s what we are discussing here. And be specific.


Yet you keep posting empty claims that some attorneys\insurance company (name them, where are their documents, interviews, comments) allegedly vetted something (what exactly?).


but since you are so stupid let me go over it once again. Nobody gives a f about who you are. Nor does anyone care about your reputation even if you ever had one. People are here to examine facts and evidence about MA and his claims.


Again, nobody gives a damn about your time or whether you’re angry. People are here to find out facts on MA and form their opinion based on relevant and proven information (not on your empty claims, religious biases, outright stupidity, deep insecurities, etc). And I am here doing exactly what people are here for by bringing that information supported by facts and evidence, checking claims, asking questions and so on.


How many times do we have to go through this? As with everything else, as we have seen above, you are not able to get things from the first/second/third time. Ok, let’s do it again.

That real estate picture that MA claims to have drawn in 1979 uses the Case-Shiller home price index. Back then there was nothing like “internationally inflation adjusted value“ and nowhere was it mentioned by MA or anybody. He started to exploit this trick relatively recently when it became obvious that he failed yet another of his numerous predictions so he had to cover his ass by making it up. Interestingly, he uses that IIM trick on real estate because, as he argues, real estate attracts global money but at the same time he does not use IIM when he makes predictions on the Dow, Gold, Nikkei and so on (which also attract global capital).

Now, if you compare the index and the picture, you’ll easily find out that they do not match (put it mildly). First, the index had been rising without any drop up until 2006 (the MA’s graph predicted drops after every 8.6 years). Second, the absolute high according to MA should have been reached in 2007.15, but in reality the S&P Case-Shiller topped in 2006 https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CSUSHPINSA, http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller, and the original Case-Shiller topped in 2005 http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
Third, the index significantly recovered and keeps rising, contrary to what MA predicted.

Here is another dirty trick that MA used. When real estate picked he did not say anything. Only after the crisis hit and real estate plunged he came out and claimed that he’d predicted the top. Not only that, he claimed that he predicted the top to the day referencing to (wait!) the S&P Reit index. Again, there was nothing about “internationally inflation adjusted value“ or any of such bs. But wait, there’s more. The S&P Reit includes not only home RE, but everything else such as residential, office, health-care, hotels, etc. In other words, from very beginning he used the Case-Shiller (only home RE). Then when it didn’t work out, he switched to the S&P Reit which tracks all RE, and now he switches again by bs people with a new trick called “internationally inflation adjusted value“.

I am curious to see what else is he going to come up with when his post-2015 forecast eventually fails.  


And?

I explained that he is attacking my reputation. I must respond because I have a reputation here. Of course if I was unknown here and focused on my usual engineering, I wouldn't waste my time responding. Please re-read my prior post for my logic on this. I am not emotional. I am angry because he is forcing me to waste my time, by indirectly attacking my reputation, since I am the one who introduced the entire Bitcointalk forum to MA.

sloanf read:


If sloanf reads this entire thread and then reads all of AnonyMint's archives, he will find all the documentation to refute his slander. That is, if he is interested in truth.

Firstly, I am not an expert nor a trader with a serious portfolio. As I said my trade is normally limited to 200 points which requires a £15K margin and I never do more than 3 trades at a time, so normally I don't risk more than £50K at any given time (plus the money is required to have hedges, because I always try to hedge to mitigate the risk). As you know there are traders and fund managers with millions £ exposure to the market at any given time - better to listen them and not me about the market.  
The size of trade is important, because I - as a retail trader - can't tell you about the brokerage conditions which is exclusive to larger trades. It is important, because if you risk more, like £200k then you could get different conditions from the broker. I don't want to mislead you that I am an expert. The experts and serious traders can see that I am not. Additionally, we have established in this thread already that nobody knows what's going to happen in sort term, nobody can predict where will be for example DJIA/SPX at the end of next Friday.
 
I am not qualified to give an investment advice, but with a good intention I would suggest to be careful with semiconductors like ATML or TXN or LLTC. Apart from the effects of the often fast changing technological market which could make semiconductor stocks even more volatile, they are susceptible to all kind of doggy factors like China news. From time to time there are always acquisition news which makes them even more volatile (many of the acquisition news/rumours are not even real but they still move the price). That's why I don't like individual stocks and I normally trade with indexes. Still, there are obviously lots of risks. For example in the last two weeks only my WTI hedge saved my trades and consequently prevented to loss money. I couldn't figure out the one day up other day down volatility of DJI and SPX in the last two weeks.

You need to decide what will be your trade? Spread betting, options or you will just buy the stock as a long term investment? Once you decided how do you want to trade then you need a broker. This could be a conventional or online broker. If you start with smaller money then you could trust any established online broker. They are not going to cheat you nor there is a big risk if they go out of business. There are lots of online brokers with very nice trading software. I have never heard of the "thinkorswim" platform so I can't comment on them, but there are many others reputable online brokers.

Good luck with your trading!

it will take you 10 yrs to become profitable i suggest hodl a coin

TPTB, not everybody can think the same, which is actually per MA as well. And that is actually not bad, since then there is always someone to trade against. So, let them be, and one doesn't really need to get emotional in trying to prove that he is right. I don't quite favor when I see a talent getting wasted by responding in an emotional manner to whatever other points of view.  That being said though, I don't mind parts of the responses, since in your refutations a useful information can be found. In addition to this, your other posts where you are describing MA analysis, and also providing your own, are very, very welcome.
From my point of view, being an engineer, the approach is to try to understand things first and them come to the conclusions by yourself, vs. just interpreting things which makes one to be nothing more than a follower. And on the subject of economic matters, MA is the only one I have identified that explains economic matters in the understandable fashion. I haven't seen yet any other person, or economic theory for that matter, that can come close to MA. At this moment actually I wish I could have found out about MA sooner.

AltcoinUK, I'm thinking to start playing on the stock market, and this is because of the confidence gained in MA. As an electronic engineer I do have input into some of the semiconductor companies, and actually I have chosen some where I would like to put my money.
So your comments regarding the trading are very welcomed. At the moment I have no trading experience whatsoever. Fellow engineers who are actually doing some trading (not by profession though), recommended to me "thinkorswim" trading platform. I'm hoping I'll find some time to learn the platform in order to be able to do the actual trading.

No the offtopic/unresearched trolls are rude. And I am speaking the frank truth.

Political correctness is a dumbing down disease.

Note I am working on the conceptual issue of why that sock puppet user with no reputation and who is noise for us can even reach this sub-community of ours in this thread.

If that attention model issue is solved, then I won't need to be frank, because you all won't be able to troll me and the likeminded sub-community.

Within the sub-community that I belong to in this thread, there are some who doubt MA (I even have my doubts and especially about short-term trading) who I have coexisted with (e.g. CoinCube, OROBTC) because they don't slander MA with very poor comprehension of what MA has written. They express doubts, but don't go on an all-out slander campaign because they know they have not read everything and do not have an objective understanding of what MA has predicted and written. They are observing.

If you slander MA you are in effect slandering me (and if you read AnonyMint's archives you would see I was arguing with MA in email in the past), because I popularized MA on Bitcointalk.org. And if you haven't read AnonyMint's archives, then you won't understand the reasons I came to my current opinion of MA's value to me.

To slander me and imply all of us are religious nutcases requires me to waste my scarce and important time to come here and dig up the research that you trolls were too lazy to comprehend before you started your troll campaign.

Please get out of this thread's sub-community (I am not referring to other threads) if you can't maintain a balance of objectivity and fairness to those in this sub-community who have done a lot of research and thinking on the matter and find value here in this MA thread. You can create your own MA slander thread if you want.

You are being rude

Then you need to first comprehend the subject matter, which is clear you haven't invested the effort to do so. Thus that makes you an idiot troll.

It would be like a 5 year coming up to a PhD and say the PhD is wrong about Theory of Chaos. At least show some respect that you do not understand what you are writing about.

You don't even comprehend what Armstrong has predicted.

we are not trolls or idiots... or market newbies & revealing who are you in real life is really secondary here to the discussion.

the discussion is intended to show the 2 sides of a coin.

if you intend to unquestioningly live in the MA fairy tale and can only parrot his writing & needs him to think for you for idea generation, so be it.




 

He is writing about the prospect for the USA markets (a decline into a V bottom and slingshot rebound), which is within his long-standing prediction for the USD and US stocks to be the bullish as the rest of the world collapses (and capital runs to the USA for safe haven). He had two or three possible scenarios since at least 2012 which is the US stocks could pause around the 2015.75 ECM turn date, or they could phase transition up to the 28 - 40K top before the turn date. It became clear on the 2014 close (which btw he nailed the price of oil for the close at $54, predicted publicly in his blog when oil was $100+), that the former scenario was the most likely.

Thus he continues to predict accurately on the longer-term.

When you idiots don't even comprehend what MA is writing about, you have no place to come here and troll this thread with your ignorance and lack of comprehension.

Please stop trolling idiots.