I understand your view (the market has been really tricky and vicious for some time) and better stay on the sideline if unsure. But my main problem with Armstrong predictions in general and 2015.75 especially is why put so much emphasis on governments bonds and public debt when it seems that right now the problem is in private debt, stock markets, oil, china, emerging countries.
Armstrong argues the performance of economy is mainly determined by confidence and the confidence in government determines whether the money flow to public or private assets. That is his model.
Other models argue that the economy is controlled by Jesus Christ, the stars and Moon, Mohammed, UFOs, Elvis Presley who is still alive, etc. I think ultimately it is matter of choice and what your personality, intellect and interest lead you to believe. He built his model by analysing historical cycles of confidence and relating confidence to public finance, and he believes history proves that when confidence is gone in government then hyper inflation, recession and the crash is in place. Just like it happened with the ancient Roman state from AD 250, the state finance of France before the 1789 revolution, the collapse of public finance of German state after the brief Bolshevik revolution. I don't think only his model is the valid one, other economy models could be quite correct as well, but in my opinion his economy model, logic and his assumption that human nature hasn't been changing makes a lot of sense.
We will see whether he is right or wrong terms of the importance of public finance. It is very possible the shills of Goldman Sachs in government (the Australian PM is the last) as well as in the central banks all over the world - to addition to the quantitative easing money jamboree - will come up with further "innovations", and then the collapse will be postponed. Who knows? I am afraid "THE BOYS" (i.e. Goldman Sachs crooks and the likes) could manipulate the system to an entirely new level by introducing some new rigging mechanism. Who thought some nonsense like quantitative easing is possible at all, but those wankers did find out that solution.
Anyway, the beauty of the stock market that we can profit from either the bounces and dips, and as for me, Armstrong can help tremendously in that process.
So 2015.75 is in 2016. Makes sense.
And I'm very worried about Germany needing to refinance 203 billions this year
No, he hasn't changes his model and timing, that is your interpretation. Plus, please note he never said the world will end on the 1st of October, 2015. All he said is that he confidence in government will be peeked by 2015.75, and then slowly but surely the money will flow to private assets.
