Author

Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 295. (Read 647062 times)

jr. member
Activity: 64
Merit: 1
January 24, 2016, 02:20:15 PM
I said many times, I am a big fan of MA, but I am starting to get fed up with these BS, such as the today blog posted by a "reader" at http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/date/2016/01:

"Can you elaborate on how these forecasts are even possible for you obviously do what no one else has ever been able to accomplish?"

Why Armstrong needs this used car salesman approach is beyond my imagination.


Well, I have already explained it here:
What is also interesting is that he goes way out of his way to reinforce that idea of exclusivity of his analysis by keeping babbling about:
1. Unique computer model
2. Unique historic data that cost hundreds of millions
3. Unique approach etc
that you may wonder why? Looks like somebody is trying to sell you something, no? The reality is that nobody saw his computer (so it may very well be yet another bs), his data or anything. He claims that everybody  sells you their newsletters, subscriptions etc. He is the only one who does not because he is filthy rich (in his own words "the markets have been like an ATM machine for me") and has a higher calling in life - to bring knowledge to the masses and all that. Yet he sells some bs dvds, reports, coins, etc, at exorbitant prices and charges thousands for conferences.
Something just does not add up here to say the least.

That salesman approach and all those empty claims as part of it are there for one reason only - to get your money (pretty much how he did it with the Japanese). Hence all those bs and lies with history and physics to create an image of a guru. Crooks never change - you can't teach an old dog new tricks.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
January 24, 2016, 11:37:52 AM
I said many times, I am a big fan of MA, but I am starting to get fed up with these BS, such as the today blog posted by a "reader" at http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/date/2016/01:

"Can you elaborate on how these forecasts are even possible for you obviously do what no one else has ever been able to accomplish?"

Why Armstrong needs this used car salesman approach is beyond my imagination.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
January 24, 2016, 11:34:11 AM

Congratulations on a great trade. Can't argue with success, much better to try to learn from it. MA has said many times that the DJI is not yet ready to breakout above resistance(approx. 18500) and has strong support at about 15500. Looks like you played that perfectly.


Thanks, but I am sure you are aware of that traders talks only about their great trades and amazing moves, but we tend to not over-publicise our mistakes.


newbie
Activity: 11
Merit: 0
January 24, 2016, 05:40:15 AM

MA exhibits trait of those religious cult leaders, especially those pertaining to Narcissistic Personality Disorder.

This is probably what led him to his fall with the inner cirque du soleil & his puzzling conviction years ago.

Also, finally after weeks of keeping mum on the central thesis, he finally attributed the bounce from this week major support level to: confidence shifts from govt to private asset.

"So far, all 10 major S&P 500 sectors rallied with a 3.2% rise in energy stocks. All but two Dow components were higher as well. This is starting to show something we have been warning about which remains on the horizon. As CONFIDENCE shifts from government to the private sector, we should begin to witness an alignment where all private assets begin to rise against government."

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/42274

My MA forecast is as follows: If next week Fed disappoints, or if & when & if Dow ever breaks, he is going to again induce fear about a 1987-style crash sling shot move during the darkest hours.




http://www.neirr.org/psychissues/Personality_Disorders.htm



What is NPD (Narcissistic Personality Disorder)?

          The Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD, 301.81) has been recognized as a separate mental health disorder since the third edition of the Diagnostic and Statistics Manual (DSM), 1980.

          It is described as an all-pervasive pattern of grandiosity (in fantasy or behavior), need for admiration or adulation and lack of empathy.  It usually begins by early adulthood and is present in various contexts.  Five (or more) of the following criteria must be met (all quotes are from Dr. Sam Vaknin’s Malignant Self Love:  Narcissism Revisited):

1.  Feels grandiose and self-importance (e.g., exaggerates achievements and talents to the point of lying, demands to be recognized as superior without commensurate achievements);

          “The narcissist is prone to magical thinking.  He thinks about himself in terms of ‘being chosen’ or of ‘having a destiny’.  …He believes that his life is of such momentous importance, that it is micro-managed by God.  …In short, narcissism and religion go well together, because religion allows the narcissist to feel unique.”

          “God is everything the narcissist ever wants to be: omniscient, omnipresent, admired, much discussed, and awe inspiring.  God is the narcissist’s wet dream, his ultimate grandiose fantasy.”

2.  Is obsessed with fantasies of unlimited success, fame, fearsome power or omnipotence, unequalled brilliance (the cerebral narcissist), bodily beauty or sexual performance (the somatic narcissist), or ideal, everlasting, all-conquering love or passion;

          “The narcissist is haunted by the feeling that he is possessed of a mission, of a destiny, that he is a part of fate, of history.  He is convinced that his uniqueness is purposeful, that he is meant to lead, chart new ways, to innovate to modernize, to reform, to set precedents, to create.  Every act is significant, every writing of momentous consequences, every thought of revolutionary calibre.  He feels part of a grand design, a world plan and the frame of affiliation, the group, of which he is a member, must be commensurately grand.”

3.  Firmly convinced that he or she is unique and, being special, can only be understood by, should only be treated by, or associate with, other special    or unique, or high-status people (or institutions);

          “The narcissist despises the very people who sustain his Ego boundaries and functions.  He cannot respect people so expressly and clearly inferior to him, yet he can never associate with evidently on his level or superior to him, the risk of narcissistic injury in such associations being too great.”

4.  Requires excessive admiration, adulation, attention and affirmation – or, failing that, wishes to be feared and to be notorious (Narcissistic Supply);

          “A common error is to think that ‘narcissistic supply’ consists only of admiration, adulation and positive feedback.  Actually, being feared, or derided is also supply.  The main element is ATTENTION.”

          “He feeds of other people, who hurl back at him an image that he projects to them.  This is their sole function in his world: to reflect, to admire, to admire, to applaud, to detest – in a word, to assure him that he exists.”

          “In short: the group must magnify the narcissist, echo and amplify his life, his views, his knowledge, his history…”

5.  Feels entitled.  Expects unreasonable or special and favorable priority treatment.  Demands automatic and full compliance with his or her expectations;

          “He considers his very existence as sufficiently nourishing and sustaining (of others).  He feels entitled to the best others can offer without investing in maintaining relationships or in catering to the well-being of his ‘suppliers’.”

6.  Is “interpersonally exploitative”, i.e., uses others to achieve his or her own ends;

          “He will not hesitate to put people’s lives or fortunes at risk.  He will preserve his sense of infallibility in the face of his mistakes and misjudgments by distorting the facts, by evoking mitigating or attenuating circumstances, by repressing the memories, or simply lying.”

7.  Devoid of empathy.  Is unable or unwilling to identify with or acknowledge the feelings and needs of others;

          “But the narcissist does not care.  Unable to empathize, he does not fully experience the outcomes of his deeds and decision.  For him, humans are dispensable, rechargeable, reusable.  They are there to fulfill a function: to supply him with Narcissistic Supply (adoration, admiration, approval, affirmation, etc.).  They do not have an existence apart from the carrying out of their duty.”

8.  Constantly envious of others or believes that they feel the same about him or her;

          “First there is pathological envy.  The narcissist is constantly envious of other people: their successes, their property, their character, their education, their children, their ideas, the fact that they can feel, their good mood, their past, their present, their spouses, their mistresses or lovers, their location.”

9.  Arrogant, haughty behaviors or attitudes coupled with rage when frustrated, contradicted, or confronted.

          “That which has cosmic implications calls for cosmic reactions.  A person with an inflated sense of self-import, reacts in an exaggerated manner to threats, greatly inflated by his imagination and by the application of his personal myth.”

          “Narcissists live in a state of constant rage, repressed aggression, envy and hatred.  They firmly believe that everyone is like them.  As a result, they are paranoid, suspicious, scared and erratic.”





Nonetheless, Armstrong HAS acquired a devoted fan base, he would not have as many admirers if he were way off-base.


Every forecaster has many admirers and a devoted fan base. It has always been the case throughout the whole human history regardless of the right\wrong call ratio. Read here

You (and I don’t mean you personally because I don’t give a damn about you. I mean delusional and gullible idiots like yourself who exist only for getting ripped off by charlatans like MA) refuse to hear the truth because:
1.   You paid money for MA’s totally worthless reports and subscriptions full of wrong predictions, so for you it’s really hard to admit that you wasted your money and proved beyond all doubts your stupidity to everybody including MA. It’s like going to a standup comedy show. You go there thinking it’s going to be great. But very soon you realize that is not and you don’t find it funny. But nevertheless you laugh because you want to get something back on your wasted money. And most importantly, deep inside you don’t want to confess to yourself that you got fucked because it hurts your ego and self-esteem, that’s why you pretend it’s funny and you lie to yourself.
2.   In this complex and uncertain world absolute majority of people seek guidance, somebody to tell them what to do, what to think, etc. Somebody who can explain them things for they are not able to do so themselves. It’s like a blind who needs a guide-dog, like a child who asks his mommy “what’s this and what’s that”. That’s why throughout the whole history charlatans like MA have been popular. From voodoo shamans, oracles and priests of ancient Egypt to these days, they all appeal to people’s insecurities, exploit their weaknesses and emotions, not their reasoning. And when somebody tries to open their eyes with facts, people reject them. Not based on facts or reasoning, but because of their stupidity, deep insecurities, and fears. For people don’t want to lose that feeling of false protection, they prefer to remain in that sweet delusion that there’s somebody that would walk them through uncertainties. And when they think they found that somebody, they don’t want to lose him no matter what. But the hard reality is that there is no such person and never existed. Hello! You have to work yourself or you'll be getting fucked by armstrongs and the likes.


Quote

Disclosure: I have NOT done the research necessary to compare his predictions vs. what actually happened (nor in what TIME-FRAME, smile...), nor how his record stacks up vs. other prognosticators.

 
You didn’t do your fact-checking and 99,9% of people don’t do either. That’s one of the reasons why fan crowds only grow. Look at TPTB, who not only did not check anything, but also did not want to, and, as we have witnessed numerous times, is not capable of reading let alone fact-checking. In fact, he has been buying bs reports with constantly wrong predictions from an uneducated convicted criminal at exorbitant prices for years without spotting anything suspicious. And even after several people bring bullet-proof evidence to him explaining them carefully like to a two-year old child, he still denies them. Again, the explanation for that phenomenon is above.

Quote

Indeed, when he was in prison, I encountered some 12 or so of his reports via Scribd.  They were fascinating, clearly showing a knowledge of financial history.


That’s how most fish got hooked, as I explained in the first post about MA’s tricks. That’s his key selling point. That history and physics bs he put everywhere regardless of relevance and context is what creates that false image of a guru and attracts unsophisticated newcomers.




newbie
Activity: 7
Merit: 0
January 22, 2016, 04:50:40 PM
Quote:
"You are better off if you follow my investment advices LoL
I said at end of September, beginning of October that I am on long straddle with DJIA and SPX. Then I said here few weeks ago that I am shorting now and will close the positions at 15.5K. Now, if you would copy the exact same trades with no more than $ 100 per points then you would pocket $300,000 during the last 3 months by risking no more than $10,000. That's how fucking great sometimes the stock market is."

Congratulations on a great trade. Can't argue with success, much better to try to learn from it. MA has said many times that the DJI is not yet ready to breakout above resistance(approx. 18500) and has strong support at about 15500. Looks like you played that perfectly.

Quote:
" Even if you get right the long trends, even if you are the greatest economists of the world, a sudden move from the Goldman Sachs "BOYZ" could fuck up your trade in a second. (Except when the free ECB and FED money flow to the market via QE, because in that case even my neighbour who never ever traded stock could make money on the market, because in that case your stop losses could be in a very big range)."

Not sure if I understood the above quote correctly but I would tend to not agree with the idea that the banksters at Goldman Sachs have the ability to change the direction of a major trend. They may be able to alter the timing a bit though. As for the powers that be at the ECB and FED, while they may have the tools available to change a major trend in motion, I don't believe politically they would be able to do so. Also, the whole concept of a change in the status quo would likely work directly against their own personal privilege and self interests. As mentioned on MA blog many times, unfortunately we must first hit the wall before there is a chance of any real positive long term change to occur.

Fred
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
January 22, 2016, 11:48:07 AM
From what I have read it seems many are strong supporters of MA and others think he is a crock and a crook. I'm kind of in the middle.

Wise man.

I am a big fan of Armstrong's analytical skills that puts economy events in historical context and drives conclusions from that. On the other hand I fully understand why the sceptics have less confidence in him. The nonsense about the super-duper database that worth $200 million (of course, why not 300) but which database have seen by nobody yet, his salesmen attitude and the that he states constantly how great he is understandably raise some red flags.

You are better off if you follow my investment advices LoL
I said at end of September, beginning of October that I am on long straddle with DJIA and SPX. Then I said here few weeks ago that I am shorting now and will close the positions at 15.5K. Now, if you would copy the exact same trades with no more than $ 100 per points then you would pocket $300,000 during the last 3 months by risking no more than $10,000. That's how fucking great sometimes the stock market is.

If you want to understand the stock and commodity market you need to read Armstrong, Caldaro, Avi Gilburt, etc plus all great analysts here like altcoinUK LoL and then do a fucking coin flip to decide if you short or long - because end of the day it is pure lack whether the market goes to your direction or not. Even if you get right the long trends, even if you are the greatest economists of the world, a sudden move from the Goldman Sachs "BOYZ" could fuck up your trade in a second. (Except when the free ECB and FED money flow to the market via QE, because in that case even my neighbour who never ever traded stock could make money on the market, because in that case your stop losses could be in a very big range).



Plan your trade and trade your plan and you cant go wrong.. Overall yes a black swan can wipe,you out but you have a sl and you put risk on sl not being respected to almost 0 unless you trade jpy or chf pairs in forex
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
January 22, 2016, 11:45:12 AM
Creative bartering would be one.

And another thing, it will take some time to equip every Chinese - considering the millions living in remote rural areas - with the technical means to access any State digital currency.

Creative bartering --- like I just traded Mark Messier Rookie Card for $100 and than bought two 1oz silver bullion
Nice.. Sucks that the value of rookie cards dropped so much
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
January 22, 2016, 09:28:28 AM
From what I have read it seems many are strong supporters of MA and others think he is a crock and a crook. I'm kind of in the middle.

Wise man.

I am a big fan of Armstrong's analytical skills that puts economy events in historical context and drives conclusions from that. On the other hand I fully understand why the sceptics have less confidence in him. The nonsense about the super-duper database that worth $200 million (of course, why not 300) but which database have seen by nobody yet, his salesmen attitude and the that he states constantly how great he is understandably raise some red flags.

You are better off if you follow my investment advices LoL
I said at end of September, beginning of October that I am on long straddle with DJIA and SPX. Then I said here few weeks ago that I am shorting now and will close the positions at 15.5K. Now, if you would copy the exact same trades with no more than $ 100 per points then you would pocket $300,000 during the last 3 months by risking no more than $10,000. That's how fucking great sometimes the stock market is.

If you want to understand the stock and commodity market you need to read Armstrong, Caldaro, Avi Gilburt, etc plus all great analysts here like altcoinUK LoL and then do a fucking coin flip to decide if you short or long - because end of the day it is pure lack whether the market goes to your direction or not. Even if you get right the long trends, even if you are the greatest economists of the world, a sudden move from the Goldman Sachs "BOYZ" could fuck up your trade in a second. (Except when the free ECB and FED money flow to the market via QE, because in that case even my neighbour who never ever traded stock could make money on the market, because in that case your stop losses could be in a very big range).


newbie
Activity: 7
Merit: 0
January 22, 2016, 03:01:11 AM
Hello all:

New to the forum. Glad to be here. Read several of the pages on this thread. From what I have read it seems many are strong supporters of MA and others think he is a crock and a crook. I'm kind of in the middle. Have been following his blog for a couple of years and even purchased a thing or two. I believe there is something very useful to his forecasting but I put the most credence in his big picture long term views and less in his timing. I've seen too many of his shorter term predictions fail to come to pass.  Can't think of many instances in the last two years where he has been out right wrong, seems more like what he has forecast just maybe hasn't occurred yet (time will tell). He has stated that short term timing is way more difficult than getting the big picture right and I tend to believe him. Using just one of his big picture predictions has been very profitable for me over the last year and a half (rising US dollar) so this alone makes me a bit of a fan.  Grin

Fred
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
January 22, 2016, 12:51:51 AM
MA is a fraud. The funniest part of all this is his "supercomputer" tracking the flows of money around the world. It's like some James Bond shit.

Creative bartering would be one.

And another thing, it will take some time to equip every Chinese - considering the millions living in remote rural areas - with the technical means to access any State digital currency.

Only 25% of Chinese even have internet access. It's not possible to have everyone on a digital currency until that number is 100%. I actually do agree that they want everyone using digital currency, but that can only happen when 100% of people are online.

Do you need Internet to use debit card at a major retailer Huh? What are you saying why is internet needed by everyone.... If the bank adopts it the customers have no choice

have you been to rural china? i have. they don't have running water. they don't have toilets that can flush. they go outside to shit in an outhouse.

everything is done in cash. there are no cards. they don't have bank accounts. they've won't ever see a bank unless they leave the village.

you are severely unaware of what their lifestyles are like. digital currency is not possible for them. they aren't strolling down to the supermarket in these villages.

 there is no supermarket. they sell stuff outside on the side of the road. live chickens. you hand somebody cash. then you go home and cut its throat. there's nowhere for them to swipe their cards
member
Activity: 158
Merit: 16
January 22, 2016, 12:29:49 AM
Creative barter offer sort of...

Someone partner with me half half for a elite weekly stock chart alert buy/sell subscription.... Share coop
member
Activity: 158
Merit: 16
January 22, 2016, 12:28:22 AM
MA is a fraud. The funniest part of all this is his "supercomputer" tracking the flows of money around the world. It's like some James Bond shit.

Creative bartering would be one.

And another thing, it will take some time to equip every Chinese - considering the millions living in remote rural areas - with the technical means to access any State digital currency.

Only 25% of Chinese even have internet access. It's not possible to have everyone on a digital currency until that number is 100%. I actually do agree that they want everyone using digital currency, but that can only happen when 100% of people are online.

Do you need Internet to use debit card at a major retailer Huh? What are you saying why is internet needed by everyone.... If the bank adopts it the customers have no choice
member
Activity: 158
Merit: 16
January 22, 2016, 12:26:43 AM
Creative bartering would be one.

And another thing, it will take some time to equip every Chinese - considering the millions living in remote rural areas - with the technical means to access any State digital currency.

Creative bartering --- like I just traded Mark Messier Rookie Card for $100 and than bought two 1oz silver bullion
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
January 21, 2016, 07:55:57 PM
MA is a fraud. The funniest part of all this is his "supercomputer" tracking the flows of money around the world. It's like some James Bond shit.

Creative bartering would be one.

And another thing, it will take some time to equip every Chinese - considering the millions living in remote rural areas - with the technical means to access any State digital currency.

Only 25% of Chinese even have internet access. It's not possible to have everyone on a digital currency until that number is 100%. I actually do agree that they want everyone using digital currency, but that can only happen when 100% of people are online.
full member
Activity: 208
Merit: 103
January 21, 2016, 06:57:25 PM
Creative bartering would be one.

And another thing, it will take some time to equip every Chinese - considering the millions living in remote rural areas - with the technical means to access any State digital currency.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
January 21, 2016, 05:12:59 PM
Also on his blog today he says the chinese central bank is going to be issuing digital currency "as early as possible"

two weekstm?

I dont see a timeline given in any of the mainstream press writeups.

The scary thing (as armstrong has pointed out) is this will lead to absolutely NO WAY to avoid excessive taxation, and allow gvts to see anything and everything you do (not that the nsa can't already).
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
January 21, 2016, 04:59:41 PM
Also on his blog today he says the chinese central bank is going to be issuing digital currency "as early as possible"

two weekstm?
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
January 21, 2016, 04:44:22 PM
Also on his blog today he says the chinese central bank is going to be issuing digital currency "as early as possible"

That's cause he read cryptocoinnews.com
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
January 21, 2016, 01:16:30 PM
Also on his blog today he says the chinese central bank is going to be issuing digital currency "as early as possible"
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
January 21, 2016, 09:48:03 AM
MA Has stated that the drop in economic confidence would start 2015.75, which seems to be somewhat accurate given that the massive volatility started about then, and stocks since have been dropping like crazy.

He also mentioned real estate could crash due to high taxation, is this limited to say big city areas where housing prices have unrealistically risen?  I've heard Pheonix, AZ given as one example where prices have risen and the bubble is predicted to pop.

Is he advocating people to sell real estate, even if its their main home?
Jump to: