I never read his "Market Talk" blog posts. They are mostly gibberish. But I think he's saying that the switch from UST to the US stock market might be delayed. He was originally saying it would happen starting in 2016 and then the stock market would double as a result. But now he's saying it could happen in 2017-2020...
But whether the final switch from public to private happens in 2016 or 2017, we're due for at least two more years of dollar dominance because you need USD to buy BONDS and you need USD to buy the US stock market. You need USD either way. So just keep longing the dollar.
Thank you - all that gibberish - you made fine work of it to better explain - Thank you.
May I ask if another source is available to better understand his work / commentary for novice like me?
I was pondering to subscribe to his investor level service ... Your feedback/ suggestions are greatly appreciated
Thank you and Happy New Year
Agree. Market posts need multiple, slow readings. From what I gather, he has been saying it all depends on year end closings as to whether we will see the false move & slingshot in 2016 or whether it is more likely to muddle through 2016 and 2017 will be the phase transition. I think according to the closing Dow numbers, it's muddle through, and that makes the move in 2017 more violent. And yes, he says the capital will flow into the USD, US stocks & piling into the short end of the bond market. I think he also writes often that this is the same process as happened during the great depression: European countries defaulted (Austria etc) and so capital flowed into the safety of the US economy.
The other theme being discussed here is real estate and taxation. From memory, the RE top is the 2015.75 date, but the falls were generally to be seen in the high end market. I think the reason given was increasing tax laws (eg UK's new buy to let tax for landlords) and capital controls lessening flows into prime RE markets. Think about it - what is a perfect asset class in which to tax investors? RE! It's illiquid and investors are easily demonised (especially if foreign) so that the govt gets the public / media onside. "Hey, there's Chinese / Arab / US / Uk investors making housing unaffordable........"
As for increased taxes, I think he links the rise in welfare commitments for government & migration to the increased hunt for money. It's not always the specific tax, more so that there will just be more of them (carbon,property, xyz...). This also ties in with increased surveillance as increased co-operation between countries is being put into place to track people and their money in order to tax it.
With the main ECM model and the 2015.75 date, in the forecaster doco you hear him say at his conference that after that date, over 2016 and into 2017, things really fly downhill going into 2020. The hunt for taxes to cushion increasingly broke governments all coincides with the Cycle of War (started rising from 2014?) and the Independent Politician / Separatist Movements that peak over 2016/2017 with major elections in US and Europe.
