Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 300. (Read 647196 times)

THANK YOU OROBT - will kep in mind.

Excellent, informed contributions today; particularly from altcoinUK and tabnloz. The thread is back on track. Very useful for laymen such as myself to gain some insight. Cheers

With such volatility and uncertainty it is easy to succumb to paralysis. I'm currently all out (other than cash) and weighing up options before the expected great unravelling.

Anyone got any opinion on the current state of Icelandic banking - if it is truly purged - and if it might be worth considering as a relatively safe haven for an offshore account (from UK)? I was looking into it as one of my "hedges".

Armstrong may have missed the possibility that gold could do a "phase shift" in 2016 from commodity to "safe hedge," aligning with government bonds.

Armstrong was saying that that gold would stay aligned with other commodities and continue to go down while US bonds go up, but now it's looking like people are getting scared and moving into gold now. If gold phase shifts now, then we aren't going to see $700 gold.

His analysis seems pretty black and white. Can't people lose confidence in government without the bond market collapsing completely? People are losing confidence in many governments around the world like the Chinese/Indian/Brazilian governments and it's a lot easier for someone in India to buy gold than it is for them to buy UST. IMO, the upward pressure on gold is going to continue throughout 2016. It may not do the moonshot to $5000 until UST and US stocks both collapse, but it's going to flatten out and bottom at the very least this year.

Expecting a bounce when the DJIA market found support at 15.6K was not a prediction in my opinion - that is the acknowledgement of the most basic attribute of the market. Once the support was obvious at 15.6K then it needed to go up following the August drop, isn't it?

I was talked about day trading in end of September and early October when 50% of analysis/technicians predicted bounce, and the other 50% expected to retest the August lows and then go lower. So what an investor or in fact a day trader should do in such uncertainty when the analysis is 50-50%? 1) Be on cash 2) Take on board Armstrong's analysis about volatility and be on a long straddle trade. Based on Armstrong, I was bragging on about that long straddle strategy here and other places, as the alternative to that strategy was a casino move by blindly going either long or short. Again, as far as I know, Armstrong was the only analysts who said: get out of the market, you can't trade this market, this is too volatile. All others were either so bullish or bearish which consequently caused financial loss to 50% traders. I don't think it takes any skills to make a long or short prediction from thin air, but it takes experience and honesty to post that such high volatility does make any trade infeasible, which Armstrong did post at the time.
People who followed Armstrong's advice did not loose money, and traders who understand that extreme volatility provides an opportunity for a long straddle trade made lots of money.

What I am really trying to say is, Armstrong is obviously correct on long term, historical trends and he is honest and most of the times he is quite spot on about day trade issues - see his concrete advice about getting out from the market in that particular case back in a few months. What else we can expect from an analyst?

That's quite true.
On the other hand the tech is still there and at least that is positive whatever is going to happen to crypto currencies. The blockchain, the distributed ledger concept is a very innovative, and business as well as all kind of social groups could benefit from using using blockchain based applications. Unfortunately it also provide governments with a perfect tool to track every single penny of payments and expose more control on society by recording, tracing and monitoring our finances.

Thanks for your kind words. I like this thread, many smart people including yourself and all others above have been discussing interesting and important topics. One of the coolest thread of this forum.

The thing is.. bitcoin can go up 100x and still not be big. Crypto cheerleaders don't need bitcoin to become the world reserve currency to make money.

This is an excellent summary of a lot of attitudes on the forum. I like to think that many that comment on threads like these are more on the rational side of the fence though, thus the discussion at all

Except that there is never an "if" in the very core premise of Armstrong's model, namely that the cycles and timing determine everything in trading. Anyone who trades stocks like DJIA or SPX - which technicalities occasionally we have been discussing in this thread - understands how constantly correct Armstrong is on the market. For instance, back in end of September Armstrong was very clearly articulated that you can not trade this market, he spelled out so even novice traders can understand that the market is and will be too volatile and we must get out of the market. He said without any "if" that the volatility makes impossible any sensible trades. Those who trade the stock market remember that back in September nobody had a clue where the market is going. All big name analysts were arguing either for the bullish or bearish trend - Armstrong said: get out. Many traders, including me translated Armstrong's analysis to a long straddle strategy (when there is volatility then long straddle naturally works out) and which indeed worked out very nicely an yielded a very, very nice profit.
On the technicals, like in his latest DJIA analysis there is no "if" as well - there are very precise support and resistance pointers. It's up to the trader to manage timing and apply the technical pointers. (Armstrong explained in one of his latest posts how everything the timing is in stock, currency and commodity trading)

On the side note, I think Armstrong is quite misunderstood on this forum, in fact I believe Armstrong will be never understood in this this dying, scam driven crypto currency market where the average age is 25 years and the audience generally knows nothing about the stock market as they met trading only by selling and buying various crypto currency excrements. Moreover, Armstrong says the truth, points out that the government will never ever let crypto currency be big except if it can be integrated into the totalitarian tax collection regime, therefore he will never be popular in this quite irrelevant crypto currency universe. A few smart and sensible people of this forum like TPTB_need_war and VladVlad are having the same opinion on crypto as Armstrong has, but the majority, delusional visitors and cheerleaders (i.e. scammers) of this forum will never accept the verdict of Armstrong on crypto.

I love and respect TPTB_need_war, he is a super intelligent fellow god bless him, he is an exceptionally talented man, but with regards to BTC price he has been talking shite. I point that out here at  https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.12881178

I am sure you can understand from that post that people who followed TPTB_need_war "investment advices" by know needed to sell their house, wife and children to mitigate their financial losses.

Hehe it is just a joke I made to a wealth manager who tried to sell me paper gold...
I was like no, I want physical gold, and when he asked me what for I said to block my friggin doors!

There is always an 'if' because MA's prediction is an overall trend within timeframe. As he writes, price and time need to combine. He updates the trend as the evidence changes, the example being X suggests chop til 2017 phase transition, whereas
Rickards, who I also think is excellent, does similar.

Rickards has said for some time that Junk Bonds in the energy sector will fall in 2016, with multiple defaults. He has also said that the trend is largely deflationary especially with a rate raise, although he is positioned for inflation as well (barbell strategy). Another example was his call for no rate rise in 2015. He began saying this in 2014, but, as we passed October he changed his mind and said it will happen in December. Is there a better connected guy in an era where finance is a weapon? He changed his mind when the evidence or insiders chat changed it. Rickards also sees a strong dollar, a recession in the US, probable easing later on in 2016 and lack of faith in the omnipotence of CB's incoming. He is also a strong gold guy, not a fan of bitcoin.

Rickards has also recommended a number of stocks and ETF's that are down heavily. And he thought gold would be higher, but now accepts more possible downside - should we say 'seriously people still follow Rickards?'. Rickards has points on the scoreboard, but he isn't omnipotent. So does MA, and quite spectacularly so, but he isn't either.

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Risk MGMT

I'm trying to figure out best investment long-term for my kids education. From Condo to Canadian RRSP or whatnot
Considering what's ahead time wise .... So confused....

What I'll be telling or doing for my kids, is making sure they have a bit of finance education on top of getting a good general education.

Knowing where your RRSP is invested is important. So many, myself too previously, thought having a balanced mix meant 50% stocks, 50% bonds or something similar. This is flawed. Stocks have a much higher risk (3x according to guys like Ray Dalio). And to think if your stock portfolio drops 50% in a big downswing, you need a 100% gain to recoup it.

Dalio recommends a mix of 30% in stocks, 7.5% gold, 7.5% commodities (bitcoin?), 40% long term bonds, 15% intermediate bonds. Recalibrate and keep the percentages in line. This formula has roughly only lost in around 3 of the last 80 odd years. Not to say it won't get hammered next crisis

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OROBTC

Japan wanted 300 tonnes of gold to mint some special commemorative coin for Emperor Hirohito (in the 1980s).  Rickards went on to write (after quoting Eisuke Sakakibara, "Mr. Yen") that the gold went on two shipments on the upper deck of a cargo 747.

Imagine when the OSS / CIA flew thousands of tonnes of gold out of the Phillipines in the decades after WW2!!

OK, I'll accept that.  I stand corrected then.  But, Rickards wrote on the 747's upper deck...

Japan wanted 300 tonnes of gold to mint some special commemorative coin for Emperor Hirohito (in the 1980s).  Rickards went on to write (after quoting Eisuke Sakakibara, "Mr. Yen") that the gold went on two shipments on the upper deck of a cargo 747.

James Rickards, The Death of Money, 2014.  Page 272.

150 tonnes of gold would be a dangerous cargo.  It would have to be packed and loaded carefully.  The upper deck (what approx. 15 rows in a passenger version) would hold 5 tonnes or so max.  Any more and the weight of the gold would make the plane top-heavy, dangerous!

A 747-400ERF freighter has max. payload of approx. 112 metric tons.

The max. take-off weight is approx 412 metric tons. Some fuel can be substituted for additional payload depending on range required, etc.

Yes, something like that.

Armstrong is also very bearish on gold in the short-term, that it might go to $600 or $800.  Later probably take off majestically, but it's hard to pin him down.

Hell I don't know!  HODL (buy) some gold, HODL some BTC, and HODL some CA$H.  Armstrong thinks the US$ will go up for sometime, so far he is right.

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FOFOA (fofoa.blogspot.com) says "paper gold" (= gold price) will go to VERY LOW ($400?  even lower), but actual physical supply will DISAPPEAR at those low price levels (and soon after, the physical gold would go to "$55,000").  The GLD (etc.) would settle customer accounts in CASH at the low price upon dissolution, only those holding their physical gold would benefit...

TPTB_need_war is predicting double digit bitcoin in Spring 2016, right?

Risk Mgmt

You can always edge into gold, buying a little bit at a time.  It's relatively easy (at a good coin shop) to buy from 0.1 oz (say $135 now) up to 1 oz ($1180 or so, note gold "spot" is at about $1090, you almost always have to pay a premium).  And you do not have to go "All Inn" (buy gold only).

A condo, or other real estate perfectly fine too.  Farmland.  There are lots of "Hard Assets", but you have to examine your own circumstances to decide.

"Diversification is my middle name!"

This one looking real good... should have bought some, I hope you bought it.

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I'm trying to figure out best investment long-term for my kids education. From Condo to Canadian RRSP or whatnot
Considering what's ahead time wise .... So confused....

...

hdbuck

A kilo of real gold is about 1/20th the size of that one.   (My daughter gave me one of those China replicas for Christmas a bit over a year ago).

Besides, were it real (and used as a doorstop), it would be stolen by your first visitor...