Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 296. (Read 647196 times)

Would you ever stop making a joke out of yourself? Do finally read those sources and stop bs people just like your idol does trying to obfuscate predictions with all that long-term\short-term nonsense so to make it easier to cover his ass if his prediction eventually fails as usual. In his report, MA clearly specified the period when gold should hit 5000\12000, i.e. by 2015\2016. It is not my words, it’s him who wrote those reports, and now is 2016, hello.


You always make claims and never back them with original sources. Again, read those reports and see what MA predicted back then. Along with those reports here is yet another confirmation as of end 2012 http://investmentwatchblog.com/martin-armstrong-2013-crazy-things-happening-around-the-globe/  where he says “The metals will be taking off during 2013 and going all the way to 2016. All those predictions failed and when he realized it, he simply flip-flopped and has been preaching the opposite ever since. But even after he flip-flopped, he still can’t get it right. He said multiple times that gold would break 1k by a certain date. Here (in 2013) http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/11033 he predicts gold at 907 in two weeks. Here http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/14815 he reiterates his 1k call. Here http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?79122-Martin-Armstrong-Interview-September-14-2014 he says gold at 650-910 coming soon. Since then, gold never broke 1K and is now even rising. Again, contrary to his prediction.


“Inflation-adjusted”, “seasonally-adjusted”, “if you remove this and that”, “QE” and so on - you can come up with all sorts of excuses, who cares. The plain fact remains the same regardless of anything: real estate did fully recover by 2015 (even inflation-adjusted since inflation has been very small) contrary to what MA predicted. Period.

As for the QE, what does that do? You wouldn’t bring it up if the Dow had hit 32-40K by 2015.75, would you? You would not say “Oh, the Dow soared because of the QE so that prediction does not count”, would you?

All right, before you embarrass yourself even further, let me summarize everything above. Your idol has been cheating people for decades. He has made thousands of claims (supercomputer, historical data worth hundreds of million, 1trln under contract, trading record and so much else) with no single evidence to back up any of them, and thousands of predictions over 90% of which turned out to be wrong or completely wrong. You have been paying him for his bs reports (which are priced many times higher than what all other way more qualified people charge and 100% higher than those reports are truly worth) for years. Despite already proving your outmost stupidity for everyone to see, you go even further. If paying lots of money to an uneducated convicted fraudster was not enough, you now work for him by defending and spreading his bs theories and promoting his constantly wrong forecasts all over the forum. I feel pity for you.

You are lying again. I already explained it to you, yet you continue to twist the facts.

1. That was the long-term peak (not to come yet).
2. You take one comment out of context. He was pointing out a short-term cycle (a potential near-term dip before the final peak[1]). The larger cycle prediction was gold to peak in 2011 and decline into 2015.75 (or later).
3. Not inflation-adjusted. Are you totally blind to $15 trillion in QE. And especially if you remove trophy real estate being purchased by foreigners. Which he predicted to occur.

I am not going to waste my time showing how all your comments are lies.

[1] Are you clueless that markets meander on the way up to a peak. Geez. What a dufus.

I think I did correct my myopia in the subsequent reply to him. And I think the points reached sort of a stalemate. I don't dismiss his point, but if that white paper above is our concern, then none of the software we use is trustworthy. Okay I understand the point that doing something once and we all have to rely on that, is different than we all each download our software and run diverse hardware. But is it? Seems we all are running the hardware made by Intel and all the download links run through routers controlled by TPTB.

So all-in-all, I accepted his point. I think anonymity is a clusterfuck. Given the way Zerocash's forum treated me (they removed all my posts after they realized I was explaining serious flaws and challenges), I don't expect any success from them either.

I'd like to move on away from anonymity. Maybe one day in the future we could make some mixers based on Zerocash (long after their effort has faded into the dust) and maybe use it for some few esoteric uses for anonymity. But reliable anonymity on a widescale is unfortunately a delusion that even I had to finally come to grips with. Sad to say.

As for unreliable anonymity, I can do that now with Bitcoin. I just go use an unregistered wireless network connection. Eventually that will be impossible, but for now it is available in some jurisdictions.

If someone could identify a use for ring mixing that applied to businesses who don't mind if the NSA is tracking their privacy, then perhaps I could be convinced there is a market. But as I wrote before, the NSA has employees and those employees can't be trusted to not sell your privacy to your competitors. Corruption is the rule, not the exception. A mouse will always eat the cheese.

I start to comprehend now how it might be true when Martin Armstrong says we might descend into a Dark Age.

The only way I can think to fight back now is go for popularity and control in the hands of the people. Win the political war.

Tis herd mentality and followers rather than leaders that follow without checking facts

Every forecaster has many admirers and a devoted fan base. It has always been the case throughout the whole human history regardless of the right\wrong call ratio. Read here



 
You didn’t do your fact-checking and 99,9% of people don’t do either. That’s one of the reasons why fan crowds only grow. Look at TPTB, who not only did not check anything, but also did not want to, and, as we have witnessed numerous times, is not capable of reading let alone fact-checking. In fact, he has been buying bs reports with constantly wrong predictions from an uneducated convicted criminal at exorbitant prices for years without spotting anything suspicious. And even after several people bring bullet-proof evidence to him explaining them carefully like to a two-year old child, he still denies them. Again, the explanation for that phenomenon is above.



That’s how most fish got hooked, as I explained in the first post about MA’s tricks. That’s his key selling point. That history and physics bs he put everywhere regardless of relevance and context is what creates that false image of a guru and attracts unsophisticated newcomers.

How is it “That is exactly what gold did”? Read again.

MA said that:
1.   Gold would go up to 2500 and even 5000 – false. Gold maxed at around 1900 and then declined to 1K. Later he specified the period by 2015\2016 and we are in 2016 already.
2.   Gold would decline into June 2011 – the opposite happened. I.e. gold soared into September 2011 to all-time high.
3.   RE would not recover much – the opposite happened. RE overall went up at least to the 2007 high, i.e. fully recovered. And some segments rose way higher the 2007 levels. Is it “not recover much”?


But again: he predicted deflation after every major 51-year wave, i.e. 1929, 1981, 2033. Wrong prediction as usual.

It seems some Dutch are getting it as well. There have been a number of decent sized protests in towns that were talking about setting up migrant centres in the Netherlands. Not to mention a populist politician capitalising on this. He is also being charged with inciting racial hatred for suggesting reducing/stopping migrants entering the Netherlands, ain't free speech great!
From what I understand there has been a history of poor integration with the Moroccan community here. Perhaps that gives the country a better footing to oppose mass migration that they had no part or say in. And yes I know the Dutch military are involved in the ME and probably have companies selling weapons too.

...

And who enters the Tar Pit first (USA vs. Europe)?

Armstrong seems to have made his pick today:

"Germany Sending Refugees Back to Austria"  (Whoops, Angela!)

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/42110

and

"France in State of Economic Emergency"  (France headed into the shredder faster than we thought: Socialism!)

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/42105

...

I mention again that very few, if any, can predict the future with anything significantly higher than random, especially in the short-term (I do believe that some can read trends more accurately, and so might have some ability to beat the average when thinking longer-term).  Nonetheless, Armstrong HAS acquired a devoted fan base, he would not have as many admirers if he were way off-base.

Disclosure: I have NOT done the research necessary to compare his predictions vs. what actually happened (nor in what TIME-FRAME, smile...), nor how his record stacks up vs. other prognosticators.  Also, he mixes political analysis to some degree in almost everything he writes, that makes it harder to properly distinguish factors behind his predictions, on the other hand those predictions partly based on politics are more ambitious and forward-leaning...

But for me, it matters little.  He claims to have a supercomputer grinding away on all the data he has amassed.  I am willing to give him some time to see how his ideas work out.  No one else claims to have put together such a database (not even Goldman Sachs IIRC).

Indeed, when he was in prison, I encountered some 12 or so of his reports via Scribd.  They were fascinating, clearly showing a knowledge of financial history.

Again, I started this thread so that people could come along and analyze his stuff.  So far, this thread has had total success!  Thank you all for playing!

I gotta side with TPTB here....

You have some screws loose in your head. That statement is so far from reality that it doesn't even deserve my effort to dig up a blog post to prove you wrong. That is all he has been talking about for years dumbass how sovereign debt crisis BIG BANG as of 2015.75 leads into a vortex of contagion and deflation.

Cripes man. Readers can surely see you are entirely clueless.

You must be paid to come here and lie. All your points are factually incorrect.

I will not let you waste my time and drag me into a long tit-for-tat debate, because it is clear that you are not interested in the truth, but rather are doing a smear campaign based on lying to readers.

For example, you don't even seem to be aware that he was in ILLEGALLY imprisoned for years for contempt-of-court, not for a conviction. And the plea bargain at the very end was forced on him by sending another prisoner in to bash all his teeth out after Armstrong (which caused an eye infection and he was going blind and needed to get the hell out of prison) which was prompted because he was near to having his case adjudicated by the Supreme Court given his vast network of friends in high places (which according to Armstrong would have brought all the facts of the case to light).

And after all, it the banks involved admitted he took no funds and paid fines for their malfeasance. It was a giant corruption.

You are either a dufus or a paid propagandist.

I should start my own blog and claim I own a supercomputer with some charts and cycles too lol.. atleast my predictions seem to come closer to his.. but if you don't have any wild predictions people dont read so I fear mine would be pretty boring.

That is exactly what gold did.

And non-trophy real estate did not recover to new highs (inflation-adjusted).

Any more nonsense?

I already explained how he makes such calls and decomposed his pattern here:


but let me add something new to that especially since you brought up this


because it’s really revealing. In reality, pi, 8,6\4.3\2.14 etc don’t matter at all. Those are just numbers. Pick any number, say 7.2 or 11.7 or whatever, and run the same series in excel like MA did here http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/historical-turning-points-economic-confidence-model-6000bc-2072ad. Try playing with the result (changing turning points, i.e. dividing the initial number by 3,4,5 etc, and then testing those turning points on various markets). You will get the same or even higher probability of significant dates. I suspect MA picked 3.14 because it’s easy to explain to gullible crowds because 3.14 looks credible so he could sell it easily without any suspicion and monetize his made-up theory.


No, MA is best known for cheating Japanese investors and spending 11 years in jail for that. Ask google what he is best known for and you’ll see.


No, he was not talking about the Dow. For if he was, he would have made a lot of money and he didn’t. The only time he predicted a specific event was 2015.75. And I don’t have to tell you how it all played out.


I would have to agree – he did admit he was wrong only once. That was when he pleaded guilty in 2006 to conspiracy for lying to investors about his trading record and the value of assets he held.
As for this


This appeared as a backup option to cover his ass and only after it was getting more and more evident that he would likely to miss his call again. Check the original version since the very start of this forecast – there was no “backup”.


Don’t take those bs awards too seriously, will you? It’s just one of countless occasions for amateurs with no fact-checking. Just like the recent one http://www.financemagnates.com/forex/products/the-man-who-predicted-snb-fxstreet-names-forex-person-of-the-year/. They did not even bother to check this http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/25888, which was written just a couple of weeks before the chf-break.


This wasn’t “just a writers opinions”. The articles says it was Japanese investors’ opinion. But that aside, I brought the article not to claim that NYT or other media is credible – that wasn’t the point. The point was to show you what people had to say of MA back then. And it is the only article of 1999 (when MA was charged) I found in public access.

You don’t say! I have already posted the proof earlier


but since you haven’t read it apparently, let me read it for you. Here (the report is dated Oct10, 2008) http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/its-just-time-martin-armstrong.pdf MA says “gold is likely to go to $2,500 or jump beyond even $5,000”. By the way, he also says this “The reaction should have been to the downside into 2008, with a consolidation into early 2009, but another serious decline is still possible going into June 13th, 2011. Do not expect the real estate markets to recover by much.” All turned out to be false.

Here (August 28th, 2009) http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/will-gold-reach-5000-809.pdf MA says “It is coming into its own and is still poised to rally to at least test the $3,000 level if not much higher.” And “Government has promised the moon, and can no more keep their promise that Santa really eats the cookies. When there is no one who buys the US debt, that is when the ceiling will fall. We will see this most likely after 2010 and it appears the end may be 2015-2016. A 21 year bull market in stocks points to 2015 and a 17.2 year high in gold points to 2016. This does not negate the decline after Labor Day back into 2010 that seems to be shaping up”.
Now, let me spell it for you so you finally understand. “No demand for the US debt and collapse by 2015-2016”. Completely the opposite happened. “Gold 17.2 year high at least 3K and much higher in 2016”. Completely the opposite happened. “Stocks high in 2015” but earlier he shifted the high to 2017 and now is shifting to 2020-2021.

Here (March 1, 2011) http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2011/03/armstrongeconomics-how-when-030111.pdf he says that gold is “THE BEST of all worlds for a bull market” and “"there does not appear to be a likelihood of any real BEAR MARKET" (Notice, that was just 6 months before the bear market started). Also, “the two patterns are either we stay in the primary channel for right now and test the support at the 1150 or 1250 level at worst, or we blast out the top of this main channel, fall back to find it providing support, and then we will be on our way to at least $5000 and may be $12000 by 2015/2016.”. Not only neither of his options worked out, the opposite happened. Notice this time he does not use “may be”, “some time in the future”, “short\long-term” or any of his usual tricks. He clearly says “will”, “at least $5000”, and “by 2015\2016”.


I have never asked you or anybody for that and I don’t need it. Even if I needed, I would not be asking you because I would prefer the original version, not someone else’s skewed interpretations.  And especially yours, since you reveal over and over again to everybody that you cannot read and keep buying bs reports.


I have just (and earlier in my other posts) brought you the bullet-proof evidence of the opposite.


False. See above. And again do finally read this http://www.informedtrades.com/showthread.php?t=1341538 where people collected some of his countless totally wrong calls and flip-flops with links on all the sources.


Ok, he has already shifted this date yet again. Now it’s not 2017 (because even people like yourself won’t believe in 40K in 2017) already but 2020-2021.


Read my previous post where I addressed this call.


Oh really? He predicted deflation no earlier than 2033, ok? http://img.over-blog-kiwi.com/0/55/64/39/201306/phpukRPHF And as for the dollar (read my very first post on that), he predicted completely the opposite. Right at the bottom of the DXY he said it was going down and would collapse http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-09-28/felon-forecaster-blogs-on-8-6-year-economic-cycles-after-11-years-in-jail

In the end, out of thousands of predictions he has thrown (see my first post where I described this trick) throughout these years you managed to find only 4 that you thought were correct. And even those 4 turned out to be either flip-flopping, wild guesses, or false.


This is the first time I am on this forum. It does not matter who I am here or in real life since the topic is not about me. And not even about you.

Complete nonsense. I have been reading since he started writing in prison. And that was never the chronology of predictions that was communicated.

You come in after the fact and don't comprehend what was communicated and proclaim nonsense. Have you been purchasing his paid gold reports? Of course not. You have no clue as to the charts and explanations that were provided.

Get off our lawn. I don't care if you don't want to follow him. Don't. I know better.

And I don't have time nor inclination to re-explain all the chronology to you. You deserve to not follow him and suffer the consequences thereof.

Btw, the gold prediction has always been for $2.5 - $5K top. The $12K figure is an absolute top of the chart projection, but isn't realistic. It would only be achieved in a very bizarre scenario of near complete collapse of society, but not collapsing all the way to where food becomes money. He always stated that projection was very unlikely (either we don't collapse globally to where food is money or we do, not in between sustained long enough to drive gold that high ... and that is why he said most often the period where gold is being heavily relied upon as money is typically only a couple of years before society resets or we go all the way to a Dark Age and then only food is money).

The correction to below $1k along the way to the ultimate top for gold in this bull cycle was always one of the potentials. It became more locked into stone as events progressed from when he was prison. By 2010 or so, he had identified 2011 as the top for gold before a correction.

I know because I was reading all during that time.

Note also that he didn't have access to his computer while in prison so when he wrote the $2.5 - $5K top from prison, he didn't yet have access to his models to start identifying the correction cycles that would occur along the way to that chart top prediction. The computer correlates enough patterns to be able to identity the cycles within cycles.

And if you expect that cycles analysis will be a simple matter of a prediction and a specific date, then you are clueless about Chaos Theory which is underpinning Armstrong's computer model. That is not what a cycles analysis can do. Rather it can give probabilities and these have to be interpreted in context and these contexts become more solidified based on other contexts. Because everything is interrelated and thus all the cycles impact the other cycles. There are some longer-term cycles that repeat, but predicting specific events what will occur on those cycle dates requires recent context.

For me he has been correct on the major predictions I needed to know about:

1. He called the top in gold & silver for 2011 and the decline ever since to ultimately a low in Q1 2016.

2. He identified in Aug 2012 that the US stock markets would continue to rise (everyone was expecting a crash) and that the ultimate high would be $32 - $40K but that could either occur before 2015.75 or 2017ish. If the Dow paused and did not phase transition (into a bubble) before 2015.75, then we'd be looking at the latter scenario. He had said that by the closing of 2014 we  would know with higher certainty. And at that time, he indicated that it looked like 2017ish had been elected and that US stocks had instead phase shifted to align with private assets such as gold.

3. He called for the top in oil of $100ish and decline to $35, also the closing price for 2014 precisely at $54.

4. He identified the shift to rising US dollar which has been very beneficial to me as I held US dollars instead of pesos, which have fallen against the dollar from 40 to 48. The MSM and goldbugs were pitching to us a collapsing dollar and even hyperinflation while Armstrong was predicting deflation and US economy the strongest in 2017 (with China to bottom in 2020 and start its ascent to dominate the world).

Why do you hide behind a newbie sock puppet account? Who are you on this forum formerly and what is your reputation on this forum? Or who are you in real life, what is your real name? My real name is Shelby Moore III.

Fair enough, there was no REIT and therefore it can't be his metric, but surely you must be able to accept that in Feb 7 / 2007, on the turning point of his ECM, the S&P REIT reached its high (335.86). It has only roughly equalled that in Jan 23 / 2015 (330.00), and that is not adjusting for inflation. Here is the link

http://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-united-states-reit-us-dollar

I can agree that this may not be the best metric to judge, but think of the probability of someone predicting a top in RE years in advance on that date, and the turning point actually occurring is pretty small.

The press called it Armstrong's Revenge.

"Martin Armstrong's revenge - I could not think of a more appropriate title to characterize this write-up because whether by chance or not, the stock market did turn south with a vengeance right on the exact turn-day identified by his model. Of course the real neat part of the whole enchilada is the fact his model predicted this turn all the way back in 1999."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/7078/martin-armstrongs-revenge

Now, this may not be the best source, but then again, you used the NYT so I guess it doesn't matter.



MA predicted an event to occur on the ECM turning point in 1987, which it did. One of the biggest drops in history. If he gave the date without context, then fine, accepted. But this says there is something to the 8.6 / pi model. I read an article where he said that 87 was the first time he actually believed in the model. I can't find articles of him saying the date but here's Barron's.

"Armstrong is the developer of the Armstrong Economic Confidence Model, best known for calling the crash of 1987 to the very day. The model pegged June 13-June 14, 2011, as the start of a long-term upward trend in the market; the market obliged by notching its first weekly rise since April 29"

http://www.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424053111904548404576397780966386382

So those are two dates, to the day, that he has correctly predicted an event to occur on. In 07 he said RE and the REIT hit its high. In 87 I'm assuming he was talking Dow and it plunged.



OK, this is plausible. Maybe he retrofits it, who's to say? I don't think you can say every derivative of 8.6 will see a major event (4.3, 2.15 etc) but, I don't think you can dismiss the model either.

Now on your point of MA never admitting he is wrong - here is his reasoning on Does The Model Ever Change Its Mind?

"The answer to this question is yes and no. There are two entirely separate  forecasts TIME and PRICE. There are three markers in price with respect to the Dow – 18500, 23000, and then 40000. The earliest time frame was 2016. There is no guarantee that we will see the 40000 level. This is why we have to follow the numbers. It is always a IF – THEN – ELSE issue for both TIME and PRICE must agree. If we reach the end of the cycle and it has only reached 23000, then that is it. If we exceed the 23000 level PRIOR to the end of the cycle, then the 40000 target becomes possible."




Haven't looked, you may be right. But I noticed his 51.6 yr up & down RE cycle roughly correlates to actual RE price movements.

http://moneyweek.com/is-the-uk-property-market-facing-an-18-year-slump/


No doubt he's can showboat. He ran a multi billion dollar hedge fund, was awarded trader of the year etc etc and was the toast of Japan after the 89 top. I'd have a bit of showboat too.

Now, on to the NYT. This is the publication that trumpeted the Iraq war / WMD's, is well known as a govt mouthpiece and just dumped on bitcoin, so their standing as an independent publication has dropped like a stone in the last decade. And of course, this is just a writers opinions.


But anyway, good posts, I can't say with certainty that MA isnt a fraud but I don't believe so. To me, at the least, there's something to his cycles. Doesn't cost me anything - I'm only an interested observer. Don't take MA's predictions so personally.

Oh really? Hasn’t he flip-flopped from his numerous 3K, 5K, 12K calls to now 1K and below? Hasn’t he praised gold as THE BEST of all worlds for a bull market? Hasn’t he clearly specified the date (by 2015\2016) which is highly unusual for him (for he prefers to obfuscate everything so not to get caught on his false predictions)? Everything is well documented - levels, dates, etc, so that
crap about short-term\long-term won’t work, ok?
MA of course can keep fucking gullible idiots like yourself forever (as he already did with gold at least twice) but he can’t sell his crap to those who can at least read.


I don’t care what he, you, or anybody think. Let’s not forget he always keeps telling that his forecasts are not his views but his super computer. So now it turns out it was yet another regular bs and there is no computer that does all those forecasts. It's just his opinions and wild guesses. And not just on gold, on everything as I clearly showed earlier.


http://www.informedtrades.com/showthread.php?t=1341538

You (and I don’t mean you personally because I don’t give a damn about you. I mean delusional and gullible idiots like yourself who exist only for getting ripped off by charlatans like MA) refuse to hear the truth because:
1.   You paid money for MA’s totally worthless reports and subscriptions full of wrong predictions, so for you it’s really hard to admit that you wasted your money and proved beyond all doubts your stupidity to everybody including MA. It’s like going to a standup comedy show. You go there thinking it’s going to be great. But very soon you realize that is not and you don’t find it funny. But nevertheless you laugh because you want to get something back on your wasted money. And most importantly, deep inside you don’t want to confess to yourself that you got fucked because it hurts your ego and self-esteem, that’s why you pretend it’s funny and you lie to yourself.
2.   In this complex and uncertain world absolute majority of people seek guidance, somebody to tell them what to do, what to think, etc. Somebody who can explain them things for they are not able to do so themselves. It’s like a blind who needs a guide-dog, like a child who asks his mommy “what’s this and what’s that”. That’s why throughout the whole history charlatans like MA have been popular. From voodoo shamans, oracles and priests of ancient Egypt to these days, they all appeal to people’s insecurities, exploit their weaknesses and emotions, not their reasoning. And when somebody tries to open their eyes with facts, people reject them. Not based on facts or reasoning, but because of their stupidity, deep insecurities, and fears. For people don’t want to lose that feeling of false protection, they prefer to remain in that sweet delusion that there’s somebody that would walk them through uncertainties. And when they think they found that somebody, they don’t want to lose him no matter what. But the hard reality is that there is no such person and never existed. Hello! You have to work yourself or you'll be getting fucked by armstrongs and the likes.

You are on a fucking disinformation campaign. I am tired of your lies. Stop lying to this forum.


Here is what Armstrong wrote:

Armstrong is referring to the end of the current cycle for gold and he has not changed that forecast. He still thinks gold can peak out at $5000. The interim correction to < $1000 is shorter-term cycle within the larger cycle.

If you don't even understand a fucking thing about cycles and what Armstrong is actually writing, so STFU with your FUD.

All the rest of your points can be similarly refuted.