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Topic: Martingale revisited - page 4. (Read 2536 times)

legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1252
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
December 12, 2019, 08:05:49 AM
Hi just want to share my experience.  Grin

Martingale strategy works for me, but not in a dice game, it works for me in a crash game where every player is against the house. At first, I am afraid to use this strategy because I will likely to lose in the long term. But surprisingly, I won and tripled my money, so I cash out my winnings and return to my base capital. The losing streak is just hitting the maximum of 8, after that, it will automatically win. That's what happens to me until now I am using it, maybe after I got emptied, I will stop on betting on that site, but yeah, it's a win for me.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
December 12, 2019, 07:28:20 AM
You should expect losing streaks up to 25 reds on a 50% win chance if you want to stay in the game long enough

It does not matter how many streaks you can survive. If you can survive 25 than your portfolio has be 2^25 times bigger than your initial bet. To double you need to play at least 2^26 times. That gives us 1/2 probability of dying before doubling

Well, there seems to be a lot of confusion about the approach described in this topic

Regardless, my stats are here for everyone to see and check for themselves. I'm sorry to repeat it but you don't have to earn by winning only your initial bet at the end of the losing streak. Technically, you can set the increase on loss as high as you find appropriate as long as your risks of busting are contained

Apart from that, you seem to completely discard the essence of my approach, that you earn through variance, and for that you don't need to roll 2^26 times to double your portfolio, let alone at least. Somehow I thought I had made that point abundantly clear but it looks like I failed
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1622
December 12, 2019, 05:51:30 AM
You should expect losing streaks up to 25 reds on a 50% win chance if you want to stay in the game long enough

It does not matter how many streaks you can survive. If you can survive 25 than your portfolio has be 2^25 times bigger than your initial bet. To double you need to play at least 2^26 times. That gives us 1/2 probability of dying before doubling.
If you can survive only 5 red in a row your portfolio has to be 2^5 times bigger than your initial bet. To double you need to play at least 2^6 times. That gives us 1/2 probability of dying before doubling. Its the same. In both scenario you have 50% chance to double.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
December 11, 2019, 11:02:05 AM
My strategy was : bet on 66.6% win chance and make 1 satoshi bet initially until you get at least 2 losses in a row and then increase the stake to 0.1% of balance and if still lost, increase amount by 3x and once you win, just reset.

Personally worked nicely for me, but then again as I did it for larger number of rolls, I faced the sad reality

People are massively underestimating the power of variance

Or, which is essentially the same, the potentially devastating effect of outliers. You can run a particular martingale setup for days on end, and not see a losing streak longer than, say, 10 reds. This gives you a false and utterly destructive sense of safety and confidence. Then reality kicks in, and you hit, or got hit by, an outlier like 20 reds in a row all of a sudden, after which your balance is emptied. You should expect losing streaks up to 25 reds on a 50% win chance if you want to stay in the game long enough
sr. member
Activity: 2660
Merit: 339
December 11, 2019, 07:18:56 AM

BTW why did you choose wolf.bet ? I think that house edge is very important in such system. Cryptogames has 0.8% instead of 1%. It also let you bet once per 10 milliseconds (6000 bets per minute 360 000 per hour - 12 M in 1.5 day)

Do they have doges and what is the minimum bet amount there?

Yes,,, they have doges at Cryptogames. Minimum bet is 1 doge though so maybe you do not have enough bankroll. I play on satoshi there because of 1 satoshi min and 0.8% edge. The only thing is what he did not tell you is that the high speed bet is only for VIP players (most wagered in month) or for all players on Monday (today).

House edge very important for martingale;)
Actually when I was new with dice game I did something that worked for me nicely initially, yes there were sessions with loss but mostly I was on the better side of the luck.

My strategy was : bet on 66.6% win chance and make 1 satoshi bet initially until you get at least 2 losses in a row and then increase the stake to 0.1% of balance and if still lost, increase amount by 3x and once you win, just reset.

Personally worked nicely for me, but then again as I did it for larger number of rolls, I faced the sad reality.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
December 02, 2019, 11:19:12 AM
As long as the majority think it is impossible to win. Casinos cannot but allow some people to win and then let them run away with the spoil since otherwise no one would be playing. This is a required trade-off (even though many casinos nowadays are laying themselves out to skew it in their favor by every means available like KYC/AML requirements), and as long as most players lose in the end, it is okay (read, it is quite the opposite of "that is not the way of doing business certainly"). In fact, I probably shouldn't even have started this thread as it could potentially change such attitudes (like "it is all about fate")
But in this scenario, saying it wont be wrong either that those gamblers who get allowed by the casino to enjoy long win streaks are actually people of the casino business or may be someone that got hired to do this job for a specific amount. Even if these are some random guys, still the house never get hurts because the amount of money is so small as compared to ultimate benefits that will be earned

I don't really know as I'm not the one hired by them (in case that was your point) nor the one involved in this business other than by being a simple player and a "random guy" (as you dubbed it) just like many other such players and guys here and elsewhere. On the other hand, I can't quite agree with your opinion that it doesn't make any substantial difference to the casino, I mean letting some exceptionally smart players win all the time. These are definitely a nagging pain in the casino's ass. And the evidence is compelling and conclusive if you ask me. There are only a few casinos that actually allow what is described in this topic in the way it should be implemented

That essentially means they do indeed care
hero member
Activity: 2100
Merit: 546
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
December 02, 2019, 11:06:40 AM
Stay tuned and follow the thread!

How is your portfolio looking after next almost full month? Are you still beating the casino or sadly hit into killing strike? Don't get me wrong. I wish you luck and lots of profit. I just don't believe in any gambling system and wanted to see if yours is still working.

I hold the same opinion in this regard. There are no strategies and tricks that can assure victory to gamblers, it is all about fate. If a player is destined to face failure, he can never ever turn it into win by making more efforts or increasing amount. If a strategy is working for a person today, it wont for tomorrow. Why would house let the gambler only win? That is not the way of doing business certainly

They have to allow some of them

As long as the majority think it is impossible to win. Casinos cannot but allow some people to win and then let them run away with the spoil since otherwise no one would be playing. This is a required trade-off (even though many casinos nowadays are laying themselves out to skew it in their favor by every means available like KYC/AML requirements), and as long as most players lose in the end, it is okay (read, it is quite the opposite of "that is not the way of doing business certainly"). In fact, I probably shouldn't even have started this thread as it could potentially change such attitudes (like "it is all about fate")
But in this scenario, saying it wont be wrong either that those gamblers who get allowed by the casino to enjoy long win streaks are actually people of the casino business or may be someone that got hired to do this job for a specific amount. Even if these are some random guys, still the house never get hurts because the amount of money is so small as compared to ultimate benefits that will be earned.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
November 30, 2019, 01:31:17 AM
Stay tuned and follow the thread!

How is your portfolio looking after next almost full month? Are you still beating the casino or sadly hit into killing strike? Don't get me wrong. I wish you luck and lots of profit. I just don't believe in any gambling system and wanted to see if yours is still working.

I hold the same opinion in this regard. There are no strategies and tricks that can assure victory to gamblers, it is all about fate. If a player is destined to face failure, he can never ever turn it into win by making more efforts or increasing amount. If a strategy is working for a person today, it wont for tomorrow. Why would house let the gambler only win? That is not the way of doing business certainly

They have to allow some of them

As long as the majority think it is impossible to win. Casinos cannot but allow some people to win and then let them run away with the spoil since otherwise no one would be playing. This is a required trade-off (even though many casinos nowadays are laying themselves out to skew it in their favor by every means available like KYC/AML requirements), and as long as most players lose in the end, it is okay (read, it is quite the opposite of "that is not the way of doing business certainly"). In fact, I probably shouldn't even have started this thread as it could potentially change such attitudes (like "it is all about fate")
hero member
Activity: 2408
Merit: 584
November 30, 2019, 12:22:57 AM
Stay tuned and follow the thread!

How is your portfolio looking after next almost full month? Are you still beating the casino or sadly hit into killing strike? Don't get me wrong. I wish you luck and lots of profit. I just don't believe in any gambling system and wanted to see if yours is still working.

I hold the same opinion in this regard. There are no strategies and tricks that can assure victory to gamblers, it is all about fate. If a player is destined to face failure, he can never ever turn it into win by making more efforts or increasing amount. If a strategy is working for a person today, it wont for tomorrow. Why would house let the gambler only win? That is not the way of doing business certainly.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
November 26, 2019, 09:52:34 AM
After that I first withdrew everything (the withdrawal was fast, for the record) and then deposited a certain amount of my own coins, with which I'm rolling now. Indeed, as I bet my own money now, not free coins, I have set even safer parameters which allow me to survive longer losing streaks. So yes, my system is working

And sorry if this is not what you wanted to hear

Ok nice that it's still working. Do you also raise your base bet after you win a certain amount?

No, I don't do that

I'm still starting with the minimum possible amount, which is 0.00000001 doge. However, I have compiled a spreadsheet that I use to check when I have earned enough dough to increase the multiplier. Right now I'm at 129.9% but I couple my bets with trades, so when Dogecoin goes down, I will deposit more and thus I can raise the multiplier, and vice versa. If Dogecoin goes up, I withdraw some coins to sell into the rising market (though there haven't yet been a lot of volatility recently to unleash the true power of this approach)
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1622
November 26, 2019, 09:50:31 AM
And sorry if this is not what you wanted to hear

Your experiment was interesting and i was curious about the results. What i didn't want to hear was You putting real money into this after seeing small scale progress. I hope it's not much and you will be lucky enough to withdraw before killing strike will arrive.
hero member
Activity: 1372
Merit: 512
November 26, 2019, 09:37:01 AM
Stay tuned and follow the thread!

How is your portfolio looking after next almost full month? Are you still beating the casino or sadly hit into killing strike? Don't get me wrong. I wish you luck and lots of profit. I just don't believe in any gambling system and wanted to see if yours is still working

Here're the last stats as of November, 1st:



After that I first withdrew everything (the withdrawal was fast, for the record) and then deposited a certain amount of my own coins, with which I'm rolling now. Indeed, as I bet my own money now, not free coins, I have set even safer parameters which allow me to survive longer losing streaks. So yes, my system is working

And sorry if this is not what you wanted to hear

Ok nice that it's still working. Do you also raise your base bet after you win a certain amount?
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
November 26, 2019, 09:25:25 AM
Stay tuned and follow the thread!

How is your portfolio looking after next almost full month? Are you still beating the casino or sadly hit into killing strike? Don't get me wrong. I wish you luck and lots of profit. I just don't believe in any gambling system and wanted to see if yours is still working

Here're the last stats as of November, 1st:



After that I first withdrew everything (the withdrawal was fast, for the record) and then deposited a certain amount of my own coins, with which I'm rolling now. Indeed, as I bet my own money now, not free coins, I have set even safer parameters which allow me to survive longer losing streaks. So yes, my system is working

And sorry if this is not what you wanted to hear
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1622
November 26, 2019, 03:51:52 AM
Stay tuned and follow the thread!

How is your portfolio looking after next almost full month? Are you still beating the casino or sadly hit into killing strike? Don't get me wrong. I wish you luck and lots of profit. I just don't believe in any gambling system and wanted to see if yours is still working.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
October 29, 2019, 11:06:07 AM
New stats are here:



As I mentioned above, there was not enough variance to book handsome profits during the last 10 days (if you consider 11% of pure profit during that timeframe not good enough, of course). On the other hand, I'm still rolling, and this is definitely a good thing without any reservations or doubts

Stay tuned and follow the thread!
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
October 28, 2019, 04:49:51 AM

BTW why did you choose wolf.bet ? I think that house edge is very important in such system. Cryptogames has 0.8% instead of 1%. It also let you bet once per 10 milliseconds (6000 bets per minute 360 000 per hour - 12 M in 1.5 day)

Do they have doges and what is the minimum bet amount there?

Yes,,, they have doges at Cryptogames. Minimum bet is 1 doge though so maybe you do not have enough bankroll. I play on satoshi there because of 1 satoshi min and 0.8% edge. The only thing is what he did not tell you is that the high speed bet is only for VIP players (most wagered in month) or for all players on Monday (today)

Cryptogames is out of the question then

With 1 doge being the minimum bet amount you can't build effective martingale strategies as you won't be able to cope with variance unless you are going to deposit insane amounts of doges (likely well beyond the maximum bet amount allowed there anyway). Therefore, the high speed, whether it be for VIP players or otherwise, becomes utterly irrelevant with all things considered, and what I wrote in this post still holds true

limit of total profit = 1 - house edge, yes. But it a limit, not a real value. Do you know that limit sin x = x, if x -> 0 or sum of all natural number = -1/12? But in real life sin x not = x and sum of natural number not = -1/12. And in longer period of bet you may make a profit. Why? What chance increase your money in 1.1x with bet = 1 coin and chance (100 - HE)/2? You have a two expected value. Theoretical and real expected value. In the longer period theoretical = real. But in a short period 1 not = 2. Real maybe > or < expected. I tested dice with 0% HE and see this effect. I have a 1024 coin and i want made 1024 coin profit. And my chance > 50% to doubling balance(50% < my chance < 51%). So, think

And what's the bottom line?
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1860
October 28, 2019, 03:11:08 AM
House edge very important for martingale;)

The higher the house edge, the longer you play, the higher the probability of you getting busted. Even with as low and seemingly insignificant as 0.5% house edge, it is still an edge. It may be very small but in the larger picture it has a very significant role. And the martingale strategy is basically founded on the possibility that a losing streak is short. The higher the house edge, the higher the probability of the losing streak running beyond the normal 5-6 losses. And with that, you must have a larger balance in your wallet. Otherwise, you will be eaten up by this house edge.
hero member
Activity: 2338
Merit: 953
Temporary forum vacation
October 28, 2019, 02:40:07 AM

BTW why did you choose wolf.bet ? I think that house edge is very important in such system. Cryptogames has 0.8% instead of 1%. It also let you bet once per 10 milliseconds (6000 bets per minute 360 000 per hour - 12 M in 1.5 day)

Do they have doges and what is the minimum bet amount there?

Yes,,, they have doges at Cryptogames. Minimum bet is 1 doge though so maybe you do not have enough bankroll. I play on satoshi there because of 1 satoshi min and 0.8% edge. The only thing is what he did not tell you is that the high speed bet is only for VIP players (most wagered in month) or for all players on Monday (today).

House edge very important for martingale;)
jr. member
Activity: 225
Merit: 4
October 28, 2019, 01:42:00 AM
Good to hear that you are still in success with your revised martingale. I myself having own revised martingale, not double the bet size, not playing for high win chance but "suitable" win chance. The conclusion is "it's success" and also agree with you that with suitable strategy, the moment that the defined balance drained to 0 will be definately long enough that we might not witness in one life time.

I just hope you can minimize your losses here.

Martingale will always be martingale and always that we are still gambling.

The last time I used this strategy drained my balance off my saved satoshis. I am a bit disappointed but that satoshis are the one I got in their faucets but still, I saved that in months and it was gone in a minute. Just remember that is how martingale play your balance.

Nah, i am not sure about other strategy, but for my case I would call it is a success case. As for your situation (which lose everything within a minute) I have experienced and work out my way (with references and research of course) to the state that I am currently on which is not losing and not risking of losing but getting out with profit (slowly and steady). I am confident with it because I can see the variances after enough number of bets. On the site I am playing now it's 39 and almost 40 millions bets placed, and the variances already happened and tend to repeat. Yes, "repeat", this is the most important factor since I can see it is repeated thus, I can control it (aka beating a losing streak with enough balance & satisfy the casino constraints).
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
October 27, 2019, 04:31:09 AM
Good to hear that you are still in success with your revised martingale. I myself having own revised martingale, not double the bet size, not playing for high win chance but "suitable" win chance. The conclusion is "it's success" and also agree with you that with suitable strategy, the moment that the defined balance drained to 0 will be definately long enough that we might not witness in one life time

With this setup you should never lose perspective

And perspective here refers to the fact that your earnings come through variance, not the amount of bets you make. It is somewhat counterintuitive or even paradoxical as the idea of martingale assumes making quite a few bets, and consists in earning by accumulating dust. It is not the amounts of bets that matter here, but the variance that counts. Indeed, at a given level of risk, you can expect that variance come about only after making enough bets (that's statistics), but you should forget about dust as it will only make you impatient and greedy
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