Martingale revisited - page 6. | Bitcointalksearch.org

deisik

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 09, 2019, 10:19:12 AM

Quote from: deisik on October 09, 2019, 09:03:45 AM

You can just look at my stats here and guess whether it works for me or not. Anyway, here come my recent results:

My simulation shows what will be the output for 10 000 - 100 000 gamblers. Not 1 lucky gambler. You see the difference? Out of 100 000 gamblers there is always one lucky bastard who made portfolio x5 and was not busted for 30 years (1 bet per minute, 8h daily, 365 days annually)

Presently, I'm rolling at wolf.bet

And their betting speed is likely the highest out there for the time being (like 4-5 bets per second). That's basically why I'm so interested in running this setup - to feel it with my own skin in the game. Well, with at least some part thereof (however small that part might be)

You see, 10 000 gamblers is not particularly different from just a single one if the number of their bets stays essentially the same. As you can also see, I have made over 12 million bets by now, and if you ask me, it is not something you can easily call a small sample size, by any means

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 09, 2019, 10:19:12 AM

BTW Is your 1200 doge profit (2$) really something to proud of?

Maybe, that the system has been working so far? Remember, Rome wasn't built in a day (or two), while the proof of the pudding is in the eating (I'm all practical)

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2$ profit. And what was your bankrolll that you were risking doing martingale to earn this 2$? 10$? 50$? It means that you already earned 4-20% of your porfolio. Try to get 100% of your porfolio and then you might be in 30% gamblers who managet to do it in my simulation. In fact that a huge difference is there is 1 gambler or 10 000 of them

I started with free coins, basically with nothing to dance on (first records are telling everything). You guess how much I made, percentage-wise

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: deisik on October 09, 2019, 09:03:45 AM

You can just look at my stats here and guess whether it works for me or not. Anyway, here come my recent results:

My simulation shows what will be the output for 10 000 - 100 000 gamblers. Not 1 lucky gambler. You see the difference? Out of 100 000 gamblers there is always one lucky bastard who made portfolio x5 and was not busted for 30 years (1 bet per minute, 8h daily, 365 days annually). And there are also 70 000 gamblers who didn't even double their portfolio before hitting killing strike. The output is what will average gambler get without luck factor. Is your stats photo giving the same data or is just confusing newbies to believe in gambling systems that does not exist?

BTW Is your 1200 doge profit (2$) really something to proud of?

2$ profit. And what was your bankrolll that you were risking doing martingale to earn this? 10$? 50$? It means that you already earned 4-20% of your porfolio. Try to get 100% of your porfolio and then you might be in 30% gamblers who managed to do it in my simulation. In fact thats a huge difference if there is 1 gambler or 10 000 of them.

deisik

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Quote from: Saint-loup on October 08, 2019, 11:26:57 AM

"long enough" means nothing in the real world. Some people win the lottery while they had one chance on 10 millions. So people can win a very long series while using a martingale

Could not agree more!

That's the essence of this whole thread. As long as you don't bust is already long enough to my understanding. And we can help ourselves last longer by choosing the right settings for our martingale setup while taking advantage of the bouts of variance through both accumulating profits and making our losing streaks longer and longer until we become virtually invulnerable and indestructible. That's technically the reason why so many casinos out there don't allow betting with lowest possible denominations or intentionally limit betting speeds (read, enjoy the ride while it lasts)

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 09, 2019, 08:08:37 AM

Quote from: MonsterV on October 09, 2019, 07:10:14 AM

Well okay, I have read three Martingale systems that you shared and it is all good enough for those who have big capital. For me Martingale v1 system is quite good even though it is an old system but it is good enough for barely capital. So far I also use Martingale system when I lose and mostly I make a single bet.

In fact my simulation shows that the more money you have the lower odds you have to double (or win profit equal to % of portfolio). The lowest limit v1 simulation was started was equal to 100. It is similar to enter casino with 100$ placing first bet equal to 1$. Or 10$ with initial bet equal 0.10 $. That's big capital?

You can just look at my stats here and guess whether it works for me or not. Anyway, here come my recent results:

I've encountered a few good outliers that helped me increase my balance during the last couple of days (but not too good to destroy me yet)

Quote from: absolutely-positioned on October 09, 2019, 08:47:09 AM

No. The chance of losing all goes down but the chance still remains. Aka you'll lose eventually

It's been discussed in the thread

absolutely-positioned

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No. The chance of losing all goes down but the chance still remains. Aka you'll lose eventually.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: MonsterV on October 09, 2019, 07:10:14 AM

Well okay, I have read three Martingale systems that you shared and it is all good enough for those who have big capital. For me Martingale v1 system is quite good even though it is an old system but it is good enough for barely capital. So far I also use Martingale system when I lose and mostly I make a single bet.

In fact my simulation shows that the more money you have the lower odds you have to double (or win profit equal to % of portfolio). The lowest limit v1 simulation was started was equal to 100. It is similar to enter casino with 100$ placing first bet equal to 1$. Or 10$ with initial bet equal 0.10 $. That's big capital?

deisik

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Quote from: STT on October 08, 2019, 10:41:38 AM

^^ THis is still a loss in my take because you are spending so much time invested in trying to win a simple gamble on the site. Are you even having fun, its not a good system on any point of view as if done properly you are not even involved as a player in deciding when to bet but are being forced to follow that strategy

But really, what makes you think I'm so heavily invested in this?

After all, the bets are automatic and after a few improvements that have been implemented recently on the site, there are no more memory issues or cpu cycles wasted, so it just runs somewhere in the background. And yes, I'm having fun since otherwise I wouldn't even bother to look how things are going on down there - something like "you're all going to die down here" in a little girl's voice (if you know what I mean)

Quote from: STT on October 08, 2019, 10:41:38 AM

Eventually after a long time of the tiny bets you might be able to walk away with a tiny profit rather then a loss, it could be worse but there was never any potential to win only to lose your own time on a pointless pursuit using a bad system

Variance is the new word to learn this time around

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 09, 2019, 05:01:07 AM

Guys if you found out any system that might actually work go here and present it to me (damn i need to update OP. There was much more than 3 simulations). I'll code simulation for you and check what will be the output for 10 000 - 100 000 gamblers plying this system in given criteria (f.e. play until double or bust). For now on cryptovigi invented system that was actually better than martingale but sill worse than single bet.

Well okay, I have read three Martingale systems that you shared and it is all good enough for those who have big capital. For me Martingale v1 system is quite good even though it is an old system but it is good enough for barely capital. So far I also use Martingale system when I lose and mostly I make a single bet.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Guys if you found out any system that might actually work go here and present it to me (damn i need to update OP. There was much more than 3 simulations). I'll code simulation for you and check what will be the output for 10 000 - 100 000 gamblers plying this system in given criteria (f.e. play until double or bust). For now on cryptovigi invented system that was actually better than martingale but sill worse than single bet.

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Quote from: deisik on October 08, 2019, 09:51:58 AM

Quote from: Quidat on October 01, 2019, 11:22:36 AM

Does your base bet is on minimal?

Yep, I start with the minimal possible amount at 0.00000001 doges

Quote from: Saint-loup on October 08, 2019, 08:22:26 AM

Quote from: deisik on July 25, 2019, 08:41:46 AM

To make things clear right at the start, I know that martingale is a losing strategy in the long term as there is no way to beat the house and its edge if only by chance alone (or by exploiting a bug in the system). And since martingale effectively removes the chance part from the equation, it is set to fail in the end

Martingale doesn't remove chance from the equation, it only removes mischance. Because if you win you don't need to use it. You only double your bet when you lose.

Well, that depends on how you are going to end up

If you leave with your balance multiplied, it could be construed this way, i.e. you always end up winning at the end of every series of bets, every losing streak. That point I agree with. However, and this is what the part of my post you quoted refers to, if you end up broken, with no coins left, as this is the inevitable outcome of any martingale setup provided you run it for long enough (unless you are following the strategy described in the OP, of course), that mischance will eventually catch up with you, totally and irreconcilably

"long enough" means nothing in the real world. Some people win the lottery while they had one chance on 10 millions. So people can win a very long series while using a martingale.

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Some casino sites might have slightly increased odds for rolling above 95 or below 5 for example, due to a bug or probably to impress some new players with big wins at lower bet amounts...

This can be exploited for a little while with a modified martingale like this: set your winning odds to something like 14 to 1, (roll above 93 to win), on loss increase bets by let's say 10-12%. With some luck, you might be able to walk out with considerable profits without hitting bankruptcy...

STT

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^^ THis is still a loss in my take because you are spending so much time invested in trying to win a simple gamble on the site. Are you even having fun, its not a good system on any point of view as if done properly you are not even involved as a player in deciding when to bet but are being forced to follow that strategy.
Eventually after a long time of the tiny bets you might be able to walk away with a tiny profit rather then a loss, it could be worse but there was never any potential to win only to lose your own time on a pointless pursuit using a bad system.
I think we can all do better then this, find a game you enjoy first then worry about this idea of a perfect strategy because its going to take a while either way.

1982dre

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Quote from: deisik on October 08, 2019, 09:51:58 AM

Quote from: Quidat on October 01, 2019, 11:22:36 AM

Does your base bet is on minimal?

Yep, I start with the minimal possible amount at 0.00000001 doges

Quote from: Saint-loup on October 08, 2019, 08:22:26 AM

Quote from: deisik on July 25, 2019, 08:41:46 AM

To make things clear right at the start, I know that martingale is a losing strategy in the long term as there is no way to beat the house and its edge if only by chance alone (or by exploiting a bug in the system). And since martingale effectively removes the chance part from the equation, it is set to fail in the end

Martingale doesn't remove chance from the equation, it only removes mischance. Because if you win you don't need to use it. You only double your bet when you lose.

Well, that depends on how you are going to end up

If you leave with your balance multiplied, it could be construed this way, i.e. you always end up winning at the end of every series of bets, every losing streak. That point I agree with. However, and this is what the part of my post you quoted refers to, if you end up broken, with no coins left, as this is the inevitable outcome of any martingale setup provided you run it for long enough (unless you are following the strategy described in the OP, of course), that mischance will eventually catch up with you, totally and irreconcilably

With a min bet of 0.00000001 doge you can handle a very large red streak.

I also did this but the earnings are also very low after 24h rolling. It would be better if the rolls were much faster.

Don't know maybe the rolls are faster with dicebot on wolf.bet but that isn't working yet.

deisik

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Quote from: Quidat on October 01, 2019, 11:22:36 AM

Does your base bet is on minimal?

Yep, I start with the minimal possible amount at 0.00000001 doges

Quote from: Saint-loup on October 08, 2019, 08:22:26 AM

Quote from: deisik on July 25, 2019, 08:41:46 AM

To make things clear right at the start, I know that martingale is a losing strategy in the long term as there is no way to beat the house and its edge if only by chance alone (or by exploiting a bug in the system). And since martingale effectively removes the chance part from the equation, it is set to fail in the end

Martingale doesn't remove chance from the equation, it only removes mischance. Because if you win you don't need to use it. You only double your bet when you lose.

Well, that depends on how you are going to end up

If you leave with your balance multiplied, it could be construed this way, i.e. you always end up winning at the end of every series of bets, every losing streak. That point I agree with. However, and this is what the part of my post you quoted refers to, if you end up broken, with no coins left, as this is the inevitable outcome of any martingale setup provided you run it for long enough (unless you are following the strategy described in the OP, of course), that mischance will eventually catch up with you, totally and irreconcilably

Saint-loup

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Quote from: deisik on July 25, 2019, 08:41:46 AM

To make things clear right at the start, I know that martingale is a losing strategy in the long term as there is no way to beat the house and its edge if only by chance alone (or by exploiting a bug in the system). And since martingale effectively removes the chance part from the equation, it is set to fail in the end

Martingale doesn't remove chance from the equation, it only removes mischance. Because if you win you don't need to use it. You only double your bet when you lose.

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Quote from: deisik on October 01, 2019, 11:13:57 AM

It's been a while since I last posted my stats here. And you know what? I'm still rolling!

Since my last post in this thread I've seen a few bouts of high variance (read, long losing streaks) which allowed me to raise my profits significantly (as you can see, these streaks were not long enough to wipe me out yet). Yeah, I know it is still mostly dust in dollar terms, but Rome wasn't built in a day, right? So stay tuned, follow the thread, and keep your fingers crossed!

Thats some very long automated betting you had there since its 9M+ overall bets.You're still lucky that you havent been bust up.
Does your base bet is on minimal?

deisik

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It's been a while since I last posted my stats here. And you know what? I'm still rolling!

Since my last post in this thread I've seen a few bouts of high variance (read, long losing streaks) which allowed me to raise my profits significantly (as you can see, these streaks were not long enough to wipe me out yet). Yeah, I know it is still mostly dust in dollar terms, but Rome wasn't built in a day, right? So stay tuned, follow the thread, and keep your fingers crossed!

deisik

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Quote from: Harkorede on September 06, 2019, 12:39:32 PM

Quote from: swogerino on September 06, 2019, 07:28:20 AM

Martingale works only if we have a huge bankroll and your stats that you have collected are lucky ones taken only in a certain interval of time.If the user continues these stats will change for sure in the near or distant future.

It doesn't matter how huge of a bankroll any player has got, when using the Martingale strategy, he's bound to lose them all, It's only a matter of how long the bankroll would last. But one thing is certain with the system, losing all your bankroll is inevitable

Technically, I agree with you

Still, it is a huge difference if you are going to lose everything in 30 years (when your are unlikely to continue playing anyway) and just 30 minutes. But that's the whole idea presented here. You earn something and that allows you to lengthen the period of time until you bust by steadily increasing your killing streak. Indeed, this is not a guarantee of any kind as your rolls are still random (read, you can lose your balance any moment) but statistically, it will last you longer

Regardless, I am still rolling:

Even though I haven't seen a lot of variance lately that would allow me to increase my winnings dramatically

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Quote from: swogerino on September 06, 2019, 07:28:20 AM

Martingale works only if we have a huge bankroll and your stats that you have collected are lucky ones taken only in a certain interval of time.If the user continues these stats will change for sure in the near or distant future.

It doesn't matter how huge of a bankroll any player has got, when using the Martingale strategy, he's bound to lose them all, It's only a matter of how long the bankroll would last. But one thing is certain with the system, losing all your bankroll is inevitable.

deisik

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Quote from: swogerino on September 06, 2019, 07:28:20 AM

Martingale works only if we have a huge bankroll and your stats that you have collected are lucky ones taken only in a certain interval of time.If the user continues these stats will change for sure in the near or distant future.

Okay, let's run this setup for another month (or two) and see how it goes (and fares)

Quote from: docthusinh on September 06, 2019, 08:25:36 AM

Quote from: deisik on September 06, 2019, 05:52:22 AM

~

make sure you check provably fair/seed regularly, I personally do not post username on gambling site, it is exposed and who know.

This is still mostly dust anyway

So I don't think it makes a lot of sense to check the seed now and then as my task is not to catch them red-handed or whatever (but you are welcome). I'm just trying to implement the approach laid out in the OP and see how long it can last me and where it can take me (in terms of winnings). So far so good

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Quote from: deisik on September 06, 2019, 05:52:22 AM

~

make sure you check provably fair/seed regularly, I personally do not post username on gambling site, it is exposed and who know.

Topic: Martingale revisited - page 6. (Read 2554 times)