Topic: Martingale revisited - page 7. (Read 2554 times)
Martingale works only if we have a huge bankroll and your stats that you have collected are lucky ones taken only in a certain interval of time.If the user continues these stats will change for sure in the near or distant future.
Okay, guys, now I've been able to collect some stats:
The bets are pretty fast at wolf.bet, so it is no surprise I rolled over 5M times by now. My win chance is and has been set to 37% all this time, so it seems that the wagered amount to profit ratio as well as wins to losses ratio reflects this setup pretty well despite a few occurrences of high variance that I encountered during this period. And while we are at it, below are the stats collected on August 7 and 16 (note that profits don't include free coins):
As you can see (in fact, as anyone can see), my profits continue to grow no matter how inherently flawed martingale can be
The bets are pretty fast at wolf.bet, so it is no surprise I rolled over 5M times by now. My win chance is and has been set to 37% all this time, so it seems that the wagered amount to profit ratio as well as wins to losses ratio reflects this setup pretty well despite a few occurrences of high variance that I encountered during this period. And while we are at it, below are the stats collected on August 7 and 16 (note that profits don't include free coins):
As you can see (in fact, as anyone can see), my profits continue to grow no matter how inherently flawed martingale can be
For the inquiring minds, I've been running this setup for over a month now at wolf.bet
A couple of times I came quite close to busting (in fact, was stopped just 1 roll short once), the inference being that you shouldn't actually be pursuing some daily targets like 1% or whatever as it is through variance that you can earn and ultimately bust
Thus you should be paying particular attention to it rather than averages if you are going to take this route at gambling. Ironically, I've made so many rolls (presumably over 4M already) that I can't even gather stats anymore (which I wanted to share here)
A couple of times I came quite close to busting (in fact, was stopped just 1 roll short once), the inference being that you shouldn't actually be pursuing some daily targets like 1% or whatever as it is through variance that you can earn and ultimately bust
Thus you should be paying particular attention to it rather than averages if you are going to take this route at gambling. Ironically, I've made so many rolls (presumably over 4M already) that I can't even gather stats anymore (which I wanted to share here)
I wouldnt have thought 1 satoshi would roll up into any problems with max bets. The maths is deceptive to most people, thats really why most shouldnt do this. I would never continue anywhere close to the limit, if its rolled from 1 sat into anything more then throw anyway amounts I just give up because the system test is a failure and thats all 1 sat is meant to be. Carrying on further would entering into the sunken cost fallacy.
Bet Martingale but only start with 1 Satoshi bet. Then you never run out, you get your wish to always win in a session (most likely) but with the drawback its unlikely you ever win anything big. If you somehow still fail to win with this strategy, then give up and do not just try again with more. Find a method or a game that works on the smallest bets and only then go forward with that.
Even with 1 sat you can be busted within a short time. I don't think a lot of users will bet 1btc at the end to win just 1 sat back.because 1 satoshi is the nett profit after every green
This is certainly true if you are using Bitcoin
As you can't bet more than a few bitcoins due to the limits put in place by casinos (they are not fools), so starting with 1 satoshi and 50% win chance, you are signing off your death sentence. It is not uncommon to see losing streaks that would theoretically end in a few hundred bitcoins (read, the loss of your balance is sort of guaranteed)
Anyone can try that with doges and see for themselves. Using the doge coin itself somewhat alleviates this problem but then other factors kick in. For example, many casinos don't allow to start rolling with the lowest denomination (I talk about Dogecoin specifically here), which quickly makes the whole effort an exercise in futility and stupidity
Bet Martingale but only start with 1 Satoshi bet. Then you never run out, you get your wish to always win in a session (most likely) but with the drawback its unlikely you ever win anything big. If you somehow still fail to win with this strategy, then give up and do not just try again with more. Find a method or a game that works on the smallest bets and only then go forward with that.
Even with 1 sat you can be busted within a short time. I don't think a lot of users will bet 1btc at the end to win just 1 sat back.because 1 satoshi is the nett profit after every green.
Bet Martingale but only start with 1 Satoshi bet. Then you never run out, you get your wish to always win in a session (most likely) but with the drawback its unlikely you ever win anything big. If you somehow still fail to win with this strategy, then give up and do not just try again with more. Find a method or a game that works on the smallest bets and only then go forward with that
If by Satoshi you refer to Bitcoin of Satoshi Nakamoto fame, then you'll get busted in the blink of an eye
Well, within a week or two or after a few hundred thousand rolls (probably, less). The only way to consistently profit by martingale is to use doges and start rolling at the minimum possible denomination (i.e 0.00000001 Doge). Then if you have like a few million dogecoins, you can actually be immune to 20+ consecutive losing rolls. It is simply not possible with Bitcoin as most casinos limit the max bet amount by just a few bitcoins, so even if you were Nakamoto incarnate, your millions of bitcoins would be of no help anyway
Bet Martingale but only start with 1 Satoshi bet. Then you never run out, you get your wish to always win in a session (most likely) but with the drawback its unlikely you ever win anything big. If you somehow still fail to win with this strategy, then give up and do not just try again with more. Find a method or a game that works on the smallest bets and only then go forward with that.
sometimes Martingale can give you a victory that is so big, but not always the strategy can provide good luck, even if we carry out the strategy continuously it is likely to suffer substantial losses. I think if we have a big enough balance you should avoid Martingale because it will have an impact on greed
The main purpose of why we are betting using the martingale strategy is not to win big, but to win all the time or most of the time. However, if we are only focus on our greediness, we might not notice how risky this method is, once we experience our bankroll will be totally wipe out, I'm pretty sure we will realize that this is not a good strategy.
Well the risk in martingale to me is that you have much space to believe you are doing good in trade but that's not true if eventually you keep losing but if you are always in winning side, you can't feel it.
Martingale is only suited to us if have a big balance in our account. If we have small balance then we may be liquidated after few consecutive loss.
The more the money we have in the balance (bankroll), the more longer we can take the Martingale strategy and avoid the loss.
That is exactly what we should not do.If we have a really big balance it means we have enough money so why lose it on Martingale or any other non working gambling strategy.Martingale it doesn't work by default,you need an infinite balance which is not realistic.
I think the needed balance depends on how you will use martingale and when you are planning to stop. Though it is said that Martingale is for someone who have unlimited bankroll, but the problem is no one have unlimited bankroll. Even those who have huge fund is more probably to end losing since martingale bet grows exponentially every time we lose a roll. Often times due to house edge, we suffer consecutive loses which can possibly exhaust our bankroll using the martingale method.
This is a good read from wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system), which enable us to know that there is a 0% success in martingale if we play continuously. Reason, limited bankroll plus exponential increase of bet when we lose
This is not the whole story
If your balance grows fast enough, your losing streak will grow too (all other settings being the same obviously). The latter means that you don't in fact need an infinite balance, it just needs to be growing so that your chances of losing your balance are decreasing with time. Further, you are unlikely to bet indefinitely long and that also turns in your favor. It doesn't mean that you can't lose because whether you will actually lose or not cannot be known in advance
Well the risk in martingale to me is that you have much space to believe you are doing good in trade but that's not true if eventually you keep losing but if you are always in winning side, you can't feel it.
Martingale is only suited to us if have a big balance in our account. If we have small balance then we may be liquidated after few consecutive loss.
The more the money we have in the balance (bankroll), the more longer we can take the Martingale strategy and avoid the loss.
That is exactly what we should not do.If we have a really big balance it means we have enough money so why lose it on Martingale or any other non working gambling strategy.Martingale it doesn't work by default,you need an infinite balance which is not realistic.
I think the needed balance depends on how you will use martingale and when you are planning to stop. Though it is said that Martingale is for someone who have unlimited bankroll, but the problem is no one have unlimited bankroll. Even those who have huge fund is more probably to end losing since martingale bet grows exponentially every time we lose a roll. Often times due to house edge, we suffer consecutive loses which can possibly exhaust our bankroll using the martingale method.
This is a good read from wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system), which enable us to know that there is a 0% success in martingale if we play continuously. Reason, limited bankroll plus exponential increase of bet when we lose.
Well the risk in martingale to me is that you have much space to believe you are doing good in trade but that's not true if eventually you keep losing but if you are always in winning side, you can't feel it.
Martingale is only suited to us if have a big balance in our account. If we have small balance then we may be liquidated after few consecutive loss.
The more the money we have in the balance (bankroll), the more longer we can take the Martingale strategy and avoid the loss.
That is exactly what we should not do.If we have a really big balance it means we have enough money so why lose it on Martingale or any other non working gambling strategy.Martingale it doesn't work by default,you need an infinite balance which is not realistic.
Well the risk in martingale to me is that you have much space to believe you are doing good in trade but that's not true if eventually you keep losing but if you are always in winning side, you can't feel it.
Martingale is only suited to us if have a big balance in our account. If we have small balance then we may be liquidated after few consecutive loss.
The more the money we have in the balance (bankroll), the more longer we can take the Martingale strategy and avoid the loss.
Gambling is supposed to be an open source for people to make money not to extort from players but it seems it’s now the other way round and I can clearly say now that this site owner do not have the interest of players at heart. All they care about is their pockets
I'm not really sure that gambling is for people to make money unless we are talking about professional poker players and their likes, or any other games which apart from luck also involve a certain amount of skill. Chance games are about entertainment only, and if you somehow come to think differently, it may cost you dear. Regarding casino owners caring only about their pockets, isn't that as true with respect to casino players who equally don't care about the pockets of casino owners?
If you are after money, gambling is the last thing you should be looking into
Exactly, most of the games in gambling aside from poker or card games are more on luck that is why it should only be for fun or entertainment unless if you are truly lucky but most of the time gamblers who risk in gambling only feels lucky but not really lucky in reality. I would suggest you invest the money you use in gambling rather than risking it in something you have low percentage of making profits
Personally, I'm playing with free money
And just want to see where that will take me (just in case, I'm still running my setup and have't lost my balance yet). So if you refer to me personally, I think I know where to draw the line as I lost a few bitcoins in the past and learned my lesson hard (even though Bitcoin was not that expensive back in the day but still)
Besides, I wouldn't quite agree with your point that most gamblers are not lucky. They are in fact as lucky as their odds are (minus the house edge), but after they try out their luck for the first time, they try it out again and again and this is where the house edge massively kicks in and starts to overwhelm luck until there's nothing left of it
I would suggest you invest the money you use in gambling rather than risking it in something you have low percentage of making profits.
This is a correct suggestion but it's wrong if someone will use a money to gamble that he can't afford to lose. I always allocate a portion from my income to gamble and I feel that is the right thing to do to be responsible as when I gamble I am not too confident that I can still have that money after because most likely I loss and that's based on my experience, and I'm talking here of different strategy.
Martingale is a good strategy if you have large funds to sustain your bets, and if you coupled it with control and right betting strategy, you can win, but it's not 100% guaranty, of course, there is no perfect strategy to bring down the house, just enjoy the game if you are here to bring down the house you are in big trouble.
Not only that, it is also a good strategy even if you have a small bankroll. Aside from normal martingale, reverse martingale gives a huge winnings if we happen to win consecutively and be able to stop before suffering a loss. Though the chance of doing this is quite slim since we do not know what will happen on the next roll. If we win we double the money and if we lose, we lost all the winning. But the good thing with this strategy is that if we lose, we only lose the initial bet. So playing this kind of strategy does not need a huge bankroll unlike the ordinary martingale since we double our bet whenever we lost which means we keep on increasing our bet and that really needs a huge bankroll.
If it works for you, go for it. But a better alternative is to harness the power of your emotions and funnel their energy into the right direction, the direction of your conscious and deliberate choice. Thus, you will get more for a buck of your time and energy
I agree with what you are saying here. I find it way easier to channel positive energy while placing sports bets since each bet usually takes time while casino game rolls happen very quickly giving me more time in this regard.Also, it is way easier to channel positive energy with regards to sports betting due to the ability to do research and place smart value bets giving us an edge while we cannot do the same with casino games.
Well, but this is not entirely his fault, because it is difficult for humans to hold back their emotions when experiencing successive losses. They will always catch up even though they have passed what he is able to bet. This is natural and often happens to me when experiencing losses in a row.
How is it not his fault? He made a bad decision and he regrets it. Simple as that. I did the same in the past and I am not afraid to admit it. Majority cannot hold back as you stated, but the winners are the ones who can control themselves in such situations and make sensible decisionsIt is just human nature
No one should in fact be surprised at this or go too harsh on other people in such cases and under such circumstances. People rarely admit to owning their mistakes. They simply can't come to terms with the fact that most of their problems actually stem from their own bad behavior and misjudged actions. So they have to find someone or something to blame (e.g. their emotions or whatever). But there's an interesting consequence or sequel to refusing to own up one's mistakes and misdeeds. Ironically, refusing to accept responsibility for one's actions leads to making the same mistakes over and over again. In gambling (as well as in trading), it means losing money until there's nothing to lose
It comes down to your own individual decisions at the end of the day. This is why I like to behave like a robot when making these decisions so that the emotional impact is low
If it works for you, go for it. But a better alternative is to harness the power of your emotions and channel their energy in the direction of your conscious and deliberate choice. Thus, you will get more for a buck of your time and effort
Well, but this is not entirely his fault, because it is difficult for humans to hold back their emotions when experiencing successive losses. They will always catch up even though they have passed what he is able to bet. This is natural and often happens to me when experiencing losses in a row.
How is it not his fault? He made a bad decision and he regrets it. Simple as that. I did the same in the past and I am not afraid to admit it. Majority cannot hold back as you stated, but the winners are the ones who can control themselves in such situations and make sensible decisions.It comes down to your own individual decisions at the end of the day. This is why I like to behave like a robot when making these decisions so that the emotional impact is low.
Since you are not sure, I think I should make you understand. You don’t have to be a professional before making money in gambling, irrespective of the game or the type of player, everyone deserves to make money no matter how small it maybe because right from when I was small and I knew how we played games, the aim was to make money.
The best is to understand that it is possible to play games without using strategies and yet make money, I feel strategies is really the problem with gambling and again, it is highly important to overcome greed since this is one thing that prevents gamblers from being successful but making money is definitely not restricted to professional gamblers alone
The best is to understand that it is possible to play games without using strategies and yet make money, I feel strategies is really the problem with gambling and again, it is highly important to overcome greed since this is one thing that prevents gamblers from being successful but making money is definitely not restricted to professional gamblers alone
You seem to be missing my point
Basically, there are two types of games. The first type, which is properly and rightfully referred to as gambling, involves only luck. In this type of the game, it is impossible to win if only through luck, but the longer you play, the higher are your odds of losing all simple because the house edge starts to prevail over luck. Indeed you can use martingale in the way described in this thread but most casinos won't let you do that thing as they are no fools, so we are back to square one, i.e. losing eventually
The second type of games, which poker is the most well-known example of, involves both luck and skill. You can't change your luck as it is beyond your powers and control (since otherwise it wouldn't be luck), but you can develop your skills and through that change the odds in your favor. It is the lack of enough skill that prevents people who are playing this kind of games from being successful. So with these games it is your knowledge and expertise combined that determine your success, but these are also what turns you into a pro
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