Martingale revisited - page 5. | Bitcointalksearch.org

canovan25

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Quote from: deisik on July 25, 2019, 09:41:46 AM

To make things clear right at the start, I know that martingale is a losing strategy in the long term as there is no way to beat the house and its edge if only by chance alone (or by exploiting a bug in the system). And since martingale effectively removes the chance part from the equation, it is set to fail in the end

With that said, though, it is an "old-school" martingale which is a sure way to lose all but what about using martingale when you constantly lower your chances to lose at each red streak by extending the number of losing rolls till you go bust? I don't know if it can actually help but it is certainly worth discussing here

Obviously, it can be done by "reinvesting" everything we earned at previous rolls without changing any other setting (like odds, initial bet amount, increase, etc) but we are not necessarily limited to only that. For example, we could continually add to our balance at each roll, thereby postponing our final moment until it gets lost in the vague future

Does it change anything even if it doesn't make a lot of sense as a strategy on its own?

limit of total profit = 1 - house edge, yes. But it a limit, not a real value. Do you know that limit sin x = x, if x -> 0 or sum of all natural number = -1/12? But in real life sin x not = x and sum of natural number not = -1/12. And in longer period of bet you may make a profit. Why? What chance increase your money in 1.1x with bet = 1 coin and chance (100 - HE)/2? You have a two expected value. Theoretical and real expected value. In the longer period theoretical = real. But in a short period 1 not = 2. Real maybe > or < expected. I tested dice with 0% HE and see this effect. I have a 1024 coin and i want made 1024 coin profit. And my chance > 50% to doubling balance(50% < my chance < 51%). So, think.

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Quote from: docthusinh on October 26, 2019, 08:19:31 PM

Good to hear that you are still in success with your revised martingale. I myself having own revised martingale, not double the bet size, not playing for high win chance but "suitable" win chance. The conclusion is "it's success" and also agree with you that with suitable strategy, the moment that the defined balance drained to 0 will be definately long enough that we might not witness in one life time.

I just hope you can minimize your losses here.

Martingale will always be martingale and always that we are still gambling.

The last time I used this strategy drained my balance off my saved satoshis. I am a bit disappointed but that satoshis are the one I got in their faucets but still, I saved that in months and it was gone in a minute. Just remember that is how martingale play your balance.

docthusinh

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Good to hear that you are still in success with your revised martingale. I myself having own revised martingale, not double the bet size, not playing for high win chance but "suitable" win chance. The conclusion is "it's success" and also agree with you that with suitable strategy, the moment that the defined balance drained to 0 will be definately long enough that we might not witness in one life time.

deisik

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Quote from: magneto on October 26, 2019, 02:36:01 AM

Quote

With that said, though, it is an "old-school" martingale which is a sure way to lose all but what about using martingale when you constantly lower your chances to lose at each red streak by extending the number of losing rolls till you go bust? I don't know if it can actually help but it is certainly worth discussing here

I don't get how that strategy could possibly help.

Extending the amount of losses that you can sustain in a roll simply means that you are lowering your bet. The negatives from that, which is in the form of lower profits obviously, essentially balance out any positives you get in terms of having higher tolerance for losing streaks

Well, I'm not sure you correctly understand the approach described here

But that's not the point of this post. You see, if someone doesn't want to get into how something is supposed to work, you can't force this knowledge onto them - and I'm not a school teacher, either (no offense intended). As they say, you can lead the horse to water but you can't make him drink. Hint, it is not about the amount of losses I can sustain in a roll - it is about the number of losing rolls in a streak that I can survive

Quote from: magneto on October 26, 2019, 02:36:01 AM

At the end of the day, your expected value is still negative. There is no strategy that allows you to win in the long run in any casino games, unless you are playing games of skill against other participants

We all know that, but the devil is in paying precious attention to detail, as always

magneto

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Quote

With that said, though, it is an "old-school" martingale which is a sure way to lose all but what about using martingale when you constantly lower your chances to lose at each red streak by extending the number of losing rolls till you go bust? I don't know if it can actually help but it is certainly worth discussing here

I don't get how that strategy could possibly help.

Extending the amount of losses that you can sustain in a roll simply means that you are lowering your bet. The negatives from that, which is in the form of lower profits obviously, essentially balance out any positives you get in terms of having higher tolerance for losing streaks.

At the end of the day, your expected value is still negative. There is no strategy that allows you to win in the long run in any casino games, unless you are playing games of skill against other participants.

1982dre

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Quote from: barbara44 on October 25, 2019, 03:37:21 PM

Quote from: deisik on October 25, 2019, 02:11:48 PM

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 25, 2019, 09:17:18 AM

BTW why did you choose wolf.bet ? I think that house edge is very important in such system. Cryptogames has 0.8% instead of 1%. It also let you bet once per 10 milliseconds (6000 bets per minute 360 000 per hour - 12 M in 1.5 day)

Do they have doges and what is the minimum bet amount there?

Crypto-games are having dogecoin dicing too but the minimum bet for dogecoin is 1 doge. I remembered they had faucet to test them but not sure they are still facilitating new gamblers with faucets; seems like we must need to be staying with them in terms of wagering and days so that faucet may be provided.

Years back we had a house in the name of fastdice and allowed us to have different levels on how quickly we like to have dicing. If I recall correctly, bitsler is still having such a speed control feature, not sure as I am unable to check in my mobile right away.

Fastdice was very quick indeed. Sadly they disappeared suddenly.

Nowadays duckdice is fast, especially with the Flashbets. Then you can do 10K rolls within a few seconds.

deisik

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Quote from: barbara44 on October 25, 2019, 03:37:21 PM

Quote from: deisik on October 25, 2019, 02:11:48 PM

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 25, 2019, 09:17:18 AM

BTW why did you choose wolf.bet ? I think that house edge is very important in such system. Cryptogames has 0.8% instead of 1%. It also let you bet once per 10 milliseconds (6000 bets per minute 360 000 per hour - 12 M in 1.5 day)

Do they have doges and what is the minimum bet amount there?

Crypto-games are having dogecoin dicing too but the minimum bet for dogecoin is 1 doge. I remembered they had faucet to test them but not sure they are still facilitating new gamblers with faucets; seems like we must need to be staying with them in terms of wagering and days so that faucet may be provided

See, that's the crux of the matter!

If your minimum bet amount is 1 doge, you are set to lose your balance in less than no time, and with higher speeds you will just bust sooner. At wolf.bet, you can start as small as 0.00000001, and cope with pretty long losing streaks, which this thread and my stats unreservedly prove. As I said on a couple occasions already, enjoy this ride while it lasts. No other casino is likely going to give you the opportunity to unleash the unbridled power of martingale done right

barbara44

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Quote from: deisik on October 25, 2019, 02:11:48 PM

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 25, 2019, 09:17:18 AM

BTW why did you choose wolf.bet ? I think that house edge is very important in such system. Cryptogames has 0.8% instead of 1%. It also let you bet once per 10 milliseconds (6000 bets per minute 360 000 per hour - 12 M in 1.5 day)

Do they have doges and what is the minimum bet amount there?

Crypto-games are having dogecoin dicing too but the minimum bet for dogecoin is 1 doge. I remembered they had faucet to test them but not sure they are still facilitating new gamblers with faucets; seems like we must need to be staying with them in terms of wagering and days so that faucet may be provided.

Years back we had a house in the name of fastdice and allowed us to have different levels on how quickly we like to have dicing. If I recall correctly, bitsler is still having such a speed control feature, not sure as I am unable to check in my mobile right away.

deisik

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 25, 2019, 09:17:18 AM

@deisik
How is you system performing currently?

Is your income based on your bankroll? The more you have the faster you earn?

It is working just fine (read, I'm still rolling)

By now I have earned 1759 doges in total but since there was not a lot of variance recently, there is nothing to brag about since my last report here. Yes, I keep the losing streak the same (like 34 rolls) and increase the multiplier (currently at 123%) when it becomes possible (I mean, without decreasing the length of the losing streak), so the more I have the faster I earn (provided variance stays the same on average). In fact, I have already described my setup somewhere in the thread (nothing has changed)

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 25, 2019, 09:17:18 AM

BTW why did you choose wolf.bet ? I think that house edge is very important in such system. Cryptogames has 0.8% instead of 1%. It also let you bet once per 10 milliseconds (6000 bets per minute 360 000 per hour - 12 M in 1.5 day)

Do they have doges and what is the minimum bet amount there?

Tytanowy Janusz

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@deisik
How is you system performing currently?

Is your income based on your bankroll? The more you have the faster you earn?

BTW why did you choose wolf.bet ? I think that house edge is very important in such system. Cryptogames has 0.8% instead of 1%. It also let you bet once per 10 milliseconds (6000 bets per minute 360 000 per hour - 12 M in 1.5 day)

deisik

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Quote from: 1982dre on October 25, 2019, 05:38:01 AM

Quote from: deisik on October 19, 2019, 08:34:10 AM

As everyone can confirm, I've been able to make almost 40% on my betting capital within the last 10 day period. Other than free doges (around 40 a week aka 7-Day Streak) and winnings reinvested, nothing has been added to my balance. In simple words, it is all pure profit generated exclusively through gambling (more specifically, by using martingale wisely and safely). You may like it or you may not like it (which I understand, just in case), but the stats are not lying, no matter the odds

That looks nice. How much is the profit per hour in $?

I don't really know

You could calculate the rate yourself if you want to, but keep in mind that it will be an utterly useless metric as most of my "profit" comes through variance (and that's the whole idea behind the approach described in this topic). In short, you earn through a few long losing streaks which are long enough to bring in decent profits (percentage-wise) but not long enough to bust you. Obviously, there can be whole days when you just drag along earning dust, and then, all of a sudden, here we are!

1982dre

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Quote from: deisik on October 19, 2019, 08:34:10 AM

Well, it's been ten days since my recent report here. And here're the fresh stats:

As everyone can confirm, I've been able to make almost 40% on my betting capital within the last 10 day period. Other than free doges (around 40 a week aka 7-Day Streak) and winnings reinvested, nothing has been added to my balance. In simple words, it is all pure profit generated exclusively through gambling (more specifically, by using martingale wisely and safely). You may like it or you may not like it (which I understand, just in case), but the stats are not lying, no matter the odds

That looks nice. How much is the profit per hour in $ ?

deisik

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Well, it's been ten days since my recent report here. And here're the fresh stats:

As everyone can confirm, I've been able to make almost 40% on my betting capital within the last 10 day period. Other than free doges (around 40 a week aka 7-Day Streak) and winnings reinvested, nothing has been added to my balance. In simple words, it is all pure profit generated exclusively through gambling (more specifically, by using martingale wisely and safely). You may like it or you may not like it (which I understand, just in case), but the stats are not lying, no matter the odds

deisik

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 16, 2019, 06:47:11 AM

Maybe this will convince you:
1. Do you seriously think there is a system that beats Casino and Casino does not know about that?
2. Do you seriously think that you are smarter than thousands of mathematicians who tried to solve this problem using complicated mathematical formulas and failed?

But really, I don't argue with that

Well, at least with your first point. In fact, I've rewritten about that myself a few times already (and probably even in this thread as well). Casinos are perfectly well aware of this approach, and that's exactly the reason why they do two things. First, they limit the betting speed. And as the example of wolf.bet clearly shows, this is an artificial limitation because at wolf.bet you can easily make like 4-5 bets a second. Second, in most casinos with coins like Dogecoin you are not allowed to start with the lowest possible denomination. You guess why

Regarding your second point, this is an obvious case of appeal to authority (otherwise known as an argument from authority). And do you know that it is listed under the fallacy category? In simple terms, I'm not smarter that thousands of mathematicians but I'm not sure that they actually think the way you think they do. Honestly, it is all pretty coherently explained in the OP (read, I don't argue with either statisticians or mathematicians). To recapitulate, I'm not lucky to survive, I'm not unlucky to bust (and yes, I'm still rolling)

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Quote from: docthusinh on October 09, 2019, 12:50:55 PM

That's not correct 100%. Look at my below stat and use your method to predict how lucky I am, and when will I got bursted.

I will never tell you when will you get busted. I can tell you where will average gambler get busted. Screenshots gives me 0 informations.

I need your bankroll and your system (f.e. starting with xxx and trippling after loss)

Quote from: deisik on October 10, 2019, 04:02:22 PM

Just in case, I never meant it to be a regular martingale setup

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 10, 2019, 04:17:56 AM

You are constantly avoiding giving me any data for simulation that would proof that it does not work (gives worse odds than single bet system). So i'll try to explain it on example

Maybe this will convince you:
1. Do you seriously think there is a system that beats Casino and Casino does not know about that?
2. Do you seriously think that you are smarter than thousands of mathematicians who tried to solve this problem using complicated mathematical formulas and failed?

Just present your system.
1- bankroll
2- initial bet
3- system (f.e. starting with xxx and trippling after loss or whatever you did in auto-bet tab)

deisik

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 10, 2019, 04:17:56 AM

Min bet on wolfbet is 0.00000001 DOGE. If you had 10 doge from free faucet you can survive up to 29 losing bets in a raw and still go into profit after next bet. If I'm not wrong Its 1: 500 M (or 250 M). It means that killing strike has probability of 1:250 M. Extreme unlucky gambler will hit killing strike after first bet

I'm still very far from any of these (1T, 1B or just 250M bets)

Regardless, as long as you don't bust, the killing streak doesn't get closer either (the direct inference from bets being independent of each other). It doesn't mean that you can't or won't bust, it means that when you do, it shall be an extreme outlier. But before you see such an outlier coming your way and wiping your balance away, you will see quite a few smaller ones through which you can postpone that final one further into the future by lengthening the fateful streak. Anyway, you can always try it out for yourself and see if it works for you

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 10, 2019, 04:17:56 AM

This is not example of luck with regular martingale:
Having 4 M losing bets and 6 M winning bets out of 10 M bets (with 50:50 probability)

Just in case, I never meant it to be a regular martingale setup

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 10, 2019, 04:17:56 AM

Saying that you are free from luck factor only because you have survived 12M bets is wrong

I'm not lucky to survive, I'm not unlucky to bust. That seems to be the point of discord between us

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Quote from: deisik on October 10, 2019, 03:04:08 AM

Other than that, you seem to be missing what I'm specifically looking for with my setup

I think you are missing what is luck factor in your case. You are constantly avoiding giving me any data for simulation that would proof that it does not work (gives worse odds than single bet system). So i'll try to explain it on example:

This is not example of luck with regular martingale:
Having 4 M losing bets and 6 M winning bets out of 10 M bets (with 50:50 probability)

This is example of luck with regular martingale:
Min bet on wolfbet is 0.00000001 DOGE. If you had 10 doge from free faucet you can survive up to 29(or 28) losing bets in a raw and still go into profit after next bet. If I'm not wrong Its 1: 500 M (or 250 M). It means that killing strike has probability of 1:250 M. Extreme unlucky gambler will hit killing strike after first bet. Extreme lucky gambler will not hit killing strike after trillion bets. Average gambler will hit killing strike after 250 M bets.

Saying that you are free from luck factor only because you have survived 12M bets is wrong.

deisik

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 09, 2019, 12:46:35 PM

Link only shows that after 5 M bets you had half the profit from 10 M bets

Yes, that seems to be correct

It also shows that I started small and at some point in time earned only 10 doges. My setup didn't change much since then apart from making my terminating strings longer as well as letting variance more leeway without changing my exposure (all of that has been explained in the thread). But quite honestly, I don't see what you are getting at here and what you are trying to get across

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 09, 2019, 12:46:35 PM

Just post here how much doge you have now (current balance + withdrawals) and i will know everything - starting balance, profit % and i can even code for you how much lucky you are

I may be lucky in earning so much, but I'm not particularly lucky at gambling that long for the simple reason that no luck is involved in that. The primary goal of my system is to let me last as long as possible. In other words, there is little luck involved in me playing all this time without busting. Regardless, you can collect like 42 doges within a period of 7 days (the so-called 7-day streak). I missed a couple days, so it should be relatively easy to calculate profit margins

Other than that, you seem to be missing what I'm specifically looking for with my setup

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 09, 2019, 12:46:35 PM

Just post here how much doge you have now (current balance + withdrawals) and i will know everything - starting balance, profit % and i can even code for you how much lucky you are.

That's not correct 100%. Look at my below stat and use your method to predict how lucky I am, and when will I got bursted.

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Quote from: deisik on October 09, 2019, 11:46:02 AM

I started with free coins, basically with nothing to dance on (first records are telling everything). You guess how much I made, percentage-wise

That does not matter it they were free or not. Link only shows that after 5 M bets you had half the profit from 10 M bets.

Just post here how much doge you have now (current balance + withdrawals) and i will know everything - starting balance, profit % and i can even code for you how much lucky you are.

F.e.

Code:

Limit:
10
target:
1210
How many tests
10000000
Casino lost with 26517 gamblers out of 10000000

That's with regular martingale (black/red on roulette). 1200 doge profit out of 10 from free faucets. Possible? Yes but only 26 500 gamblers out of 10 000 000 manage to do it (0.27%). Did you get better profit (~12 000%)? I can code that too to show you what is the probability of you still being alive if you are using regular martingale.

Topic: Martingale revisited - page 5. (Read 2527 times)