Topic: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ - page 18. (Read 14269 times)

As an entrepreneur and also the largest shareholder of a technology company of course he knows the consequences he will have when he first entered bitcoin in 2020 then, maybe now his position is a little shaky due to pressure from investors and other shareholders but I think he is a bitcoin fanatic like president Nayib Bukele, so every bet he makes is of course for the good of the company even though maybe everything is still beyond his estimation, the loss can be said to be quite large at this time but interestingly saylor said if the company had more than enough bitcoin to cover the collateral requirements (margin call) and the company can be said to be in an emergency by looking for other guarantees if bitcoin falls to $3500, so I think even though the company is now experiencing losses but it looks like it not will disrupt the stability of their company, the decline that is happening now this doesn't deter saylor from investing again and even a 3 day ago they announced another purchase of 480 bitcoins or equivalent with $10 milions.


https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1542117682207678465?t=-DdT_rwHQUxc-V7BfovHDA&s

Never, I was never sure about that convenience. He must be nervous about what he has to do to get bitcoin to give him a return on all his investment so far. Otherwise, he would definitely get into trouble sooner or later. I might think he's going to need a lot of time to get his payback after the loss, so he'll have to be patient for that in the long run.

You seem like a very ambitious person to own more bitcoins than you can have. I never thought that a person who has the desire to collect as much bitcoin as he can afford is wrong - it is the right move especially when the money he invests is private property that he is 100% ready afford to lose.

Obviously that's a different thing about Saylor, she might not be ready to lose more because the money she's invested in bitcoin so far isn't entirely hers. I don't know how he sorts out the sources of funds he uses to buy bitcoin so that his company's balance sheet isn't compromised, but he'd definitely be in trouble if his shareholders felt wronged by Saylor's investment decisions in bitcoin.

Buying whatever the BTC price does seem to still serve as a kind of DCA strategy.

Some had erroneously been suggesting that Saylor buys the dip or tries to buy the dip, and your linked-graph seems to disprove those kinds of assertions regarding what Saylor/MSTR has been doing with his ongoing and somewhat irregularly timed BTC buys (which I would argue can be characterized as a kind of DCA)... DCA could also be characterized as a specific time interval and a specific amount, but I doubt that either of those are really prerequisites for characterizing ongoing buys (even if irregular in amount and time interval) to still serve as a kind of ongoing DCAing strategy. 

When I got into bitcoin, I used to characterize my DCA as a font loading DCA strategy.. and so I never really established exactly what I was going to do, even though I tried to stay on a weekly allowance, I would frequently deviate from my allowance limitations either in terms of time or in terms of amount, but I sill considered what I was doing as ongoing DCA.. because there was a kind of consistency in the beginning to continue to try to accumulate BTC.. Some might even call that lump sum investing, even though the practice is ongoing, but then after a stack is accumulated, there still can be feelings of not having enough (until you do start to feel as if you have enough at some later point - which will differ between individuals and likely even differ with institutions in regards to their particulars - including having ongoing incoming cashflow and trying to figure out where to put such ongoing incoming cashflow.

Not everything you say is true because he just seems like someone who only buys as much as he can afford instead of having a DCA strategy or something. See how to buy so far, you will know some of his investment habits in bitcoin based on the image below.

I can probably say that his strategy and policy in making the decision to buy is still no better than that of most non-institutional investors. So don't always assume that a financially powerful investor like Saylor is better than you and most other people.

I think that structure is relatively common in tech startups, as the founder seeks new financing options via equity injection by external investors to avoid being ousted from the company. On the other side, investors might only be interested in the company's financial aspect, without interfering with management. At least in the initial phases.

The unequal voting structure doesnt seem right but if its always been that way I guess its legal so tough luck.  Facebook has something similar I think.   Used to be banks were arranged differently also, to be a director you had to be personally invested in the fate of the bank but that was before the central bank regime took over

I dont see any one particular owner outside of the voting issue.

That's right, it looks like the current loss that Saylor is experiencing if calculated can reach $1.5b from his investment in Bitcoin.
Would he be comfortable with his current position even if some great support came to him like encouragement from Cz. The big whales seem to plan to play this chronology in the middle of the Extreme market in order to drop the price in order to liquidate Saylor position.

Saylor is a tough guy he has deeper abilities and knowledge than the few people who criticize his policies.
I believe this extreme market situation will pass quickly, Nayibbukele and Saylor will be the stars when the bull market comes.

Microstrategy has two different class of stocks.
According to 2021 Annual Report:


Class A are ordinary shares, while a single class B share grants 10 voting rights:
So:



There is a little discrepancy in the number as I think my numbers are a little bit more updated than those on the annual report.

I think your logic is correct regarding the current situation Saylor and her company are in which have consistently invested in bitcoin so far. As long as bitcoin still benefit their shareholders, I don't think there's anything to think about. But the situation will be different because now bitcoin is under $20K so there's a good chance he and his company are in trouble.

I can imagine if it happened to MicroStrategy and Saylor then bitcoin would have a pretty big impact considering there was a massive sell-off caused by the rise of FUD. Saylor will never become a bitcoin holder without selling anything, so since not all of the shares she owns are 100% hers, it's likely that some of the bitcoin will be sold to balance out her financial situation.

How much stock in MSTR does Michael Saylor own, exactly?  I think I can look that up easily, but I'm not exactly sure where at the moment and if it was ever written in this thread, there's no way I'm going to re-read everything here.

But if he doesn't own 100% of the company (true, right?) and the company is a publicly-traded one (true), then he's still accountable to his shareholders.  Period.  If he looks at MSTR as a vehicle for his own passion for bitcoin, the minority shareholders might feel just a little bit burned now that bitcoin is below $20k.  And I'm telling you, I'm watching a webcast of him right now and he's really pushing it with all that he's saying--it's as if he's describing MSTR as a fucking bitcoin casino!

Don't believe me?  Just wait until the shareholder lawsuits start popping up, which I can almost guarantee will happen sooner or later.

In some way, Micheal Saylor is the Russian Government of Microstrategy.
As long as no shareholders can legitimately overturn his will, the decisions is only his own.
And as long as he wants to accumulate bitcoin, which is the only strategy, according to his interviews, we can be sure no Bitcoin will leave Microstrategy self custody.

Yes but you understand the main thing i want to show.

I only put the Gazprom example because its quite easy to demostrate.

The shares on the stock market of Gazprom go down because the war, but their cashflow go ultra up because of the war and the increase of the oil prices. (yes i know with the embargo the cant sell in a lot of parts) But your undestand my point. And with the mayority of the shares in hands of one (in  this case the russian goverment) they dont give a shit to the opinion of the holders.

Well with all this parabolic explanation, i see the same in some companies like maybe Microstrategy. So they can still operate and keep buying more BTC with his normal cashflow or saves, thinking in  the long run.

I don't understand every single point that you made, but it seems to me that you make a lot of good points in terms of the various ways to attempt to assess the value of a company, and sometimes certain indicators (or ways of looking at the company's valuation) can be misleading in terms of whether the shares go up or down in their market price and whether the assets held by the company are valued fairly valued and/or understood and also considering whether they have cashflows and if the cashflows have been affecting by the changes in the market (or current market conditions).

Not everyone is going to assess a company in similar ways, and surely some of the investors will be right and others will be wrong in their assessment. Surely Microstrategy does hold a very unique position in the bitcoin space and even in comparison to a lot of other similar companies, and for sure it is not unreasonable tfor some folks to consider Microstrategy to be a way of investing in bitcoin (or shorting  bitcoin) when they might NOT be able to buy bitcoin directly.. It does seem like it would be a bit redundant if someone were to own bitcoin and also to own MSTR, but there are people who likely do that, too.

This last $10 million appears to have been bought by MSTR extra cashflow, and I am not really sure if MSTR is holding back some of their cash reserves for further dips in the BTC price because there still does remain quite a bit of uncertainty regarding if the BTC price bottom is in or close to being in., so even MSTR and their bitcoin staff (beyond Saylor) might surely assess the BTC market differently from a layperson (or a bitcoin OG), too... but I am not sure if MSTR would be more likely to be correct in their assessment, or not.  They surely are not dummies when it comes to bitcoin or even their continuing to be able to generate decent cashflow/profits from their software business either.

Well im not following so much the MicroStrategy thing but.

I see a lot of you share the balance sheet and its ok but.... for me that says nothing. If the companie doesnt use that funds for keep making the companie runs its not problem. The only problem comes when you use your "saves" for make the companie work.

Its for that we see this new companies like 3 arrows and a lot more going bankrup, because they use the bull market and the "saves in crypto" to expands and growing with a shit business plan.

Lets me explain my point with a traditional one.

We see ever the press saying. "X company lost about 15000 billions of dollar of value" so in our minds we thing this company its near to die. And that can be true or can be a big lie.

Lets take Gazprom for example. They lost a ton of "market value" but the market value affects 0 to the companie if they dont need to claim a "loan" in the market. The only way this affect and can destroy a companie its when you have a open loan and you want to close this one selling your shares on the stock market.  ONLY in that case this affect you directly.

Coming back to the crypto companies and their shit business plan. A ton of companies make this.

1- Taking a loan to expand the companie (seems good)
2- Think and put to cover that loan their saves and their principal active (cryptos), always thinking in bull market so they think can easily close the loan. (imprudent decision)
3- The Bear market comes, your principal active and your flow of cash goes to crash, you cant repay the money you borrowed so you crash.
4- His passive is now more than before because now your companie its much bigger (point 1 you thing for a long run of bull market) and you have less clients so inevitable crash.

So, i dont know if this its the case of Microstrategy if they only continue to accumulate wealth in bitcoin and dont have any open loan or need of cash to close some accounts i dont see any problem.

I hope i explain my point in a good manner. its quite difficult to me to writte in english such a complicated thing.

That was done:



Yes, of course, the spreadsheet is mine.
All the content in my thread is carefully crafted by me.
So if you notice something inaccurate, subpar or sloppy (this is very possible, as you have just seen), let me know so I can fix it.

Tweets full of optimism indeed Michael Saylor, even he says he never gets bored, bitcoin has always been a trust and he will continue to buy at lower prices to continue to collect bitcoins regularly and the total he has is so much, just imagine if it rises to early 2021 again that would be a huge advantage because that's Microstrategy.
For him it is never too late for bitcoin.

The current loss could yeild a million dollars profits also for MSTR with bitcoin boosting and he knows this fact so taking these risks is well paid off.But still bitcoin needs to surpass atleast $30k levels and then they will be in some real profits otherwise they can risk out some more to gain more

He is always waiting for these opportunities to invest and you could see his Twitter wall filled with all the bitcoin optimistic tweets and advocating about it.He once again jumped in to buy these additional bitcoins and now is the top institutional bitcoin holding investors only due to him.The bitcoin spark in his eyes is to accumulate more and more bitcoins at these discounted rates.

LOL!

I don't remember if that's your G Sheet or not, but if it is, please make column D a bit larger so it fits the larger numbers
(Actually checking/ensuring all of those may not hurt either).

After the Wall of text from @JayJuanGee, a wall of images:

Here is a brief recap of MSRT Buying History:




Also, an update on impairment losses.



Please note that the latest buy has already caused a good half a million impairment loss.

Yep... Everything is within a fair range of normal, and for sure if there was a conclusion to buy a bunch of coins in the $50ks (which Saylor/MSTR did), there should be even greater justifications to be buying coins in the lower $20ks and even at lower prices if the BTC price goes lower, again.

Relatively soon after Saylor became public with his various August 2020 announcements about MSTR's relatively aggressive entrance into BTC from that time and soon thereafter, I had been struck by the level of his/MSTR's aggressiveness in buying BTC - which I had been trying to weigh in comparison to my own (of course MSTR is working with something like thousands of times greater budget than myself and other individuals, and they seem to be able to create financial instruments that individuals would not be able to create as easily to entice investors).  

The punchline remains that on a personal level, I continue to be able to relate - even though from my own comparative perspective, it seem that MSTR had entered into BTC at a much better time than myself - in terms of the location of the cycle - and even if some folks try to give MSTR/Saylor credit for pushing the BTC price up from $10k to $69k, who fucking cares, the fact of the matter is that the BTC price was going up as they were getting their initial stake into BTC, which may have even attributed to their looking like greater geniuses than myself, when I had started investing in late 2013 and the BTC price had been going down for the next year and then ending up relatively flat for the next year and a half. ...

and maybe we (my lil selfie and MSTR)  still end up in some kind of a similar place (referring to percentages)? even though I still consider MSTR to be doing quite a bit better than what I had been doing at nearly 2 years into my BTC journey.. but still maybe they will still end up in a similar place as me in terms of percentages (even if working with larger numbers) if the BTC price goes down some more (I have my doubts about how far the BTC price can go down or even stay down, but hey nearly anything is possible, for sure) .  

Essentially, MSTR is in the hole, currently around 33%-ish in the hole, and I had spent most of 2015 in the hole at more than 50%.. because my average cost per BTC started out late 2014 at about $570-ish, and by the end o f 2015, my average cost per BTC was around $500-ish.. and the reason that my average cost per BTC came down by that much is because I continued to buy BTC even though the seemingly depressing period of time in 2015 that the BTC price in the mid $200s was amore than 50% cheaper than mine average costs per BTC during that whole period.

Quite a few times bulltards (not meaning to be hostile to bulltards) had ben proclaiming (misrepresenting) that MSTR had been buying the dip, and blah blah blah.. even though michael and MSTR had several times asserted that they had not been very price sensitive.  Accordingly, between August 2020 and early 2022, MSTR were buying BTC at any price with whatever cashflow that they had available (or could get their hands on), and surely MSTR and Saylor may have been learning a lesson that maybe they should have been buying the dip (or attempting to be more strategic in terms of their then ongoing lack of price sensitivities) rather than just buying BTC at any price - and I am not even blaming Saylor /MSTR because even though Saylor is smart as fuck when it comes to being able to coherently articulate great reasons to have aggressive allocations into into BTC, at the same time MSTR/Saylor seemed to have had gotten caught up in a decent amount of the hype too which seems to have had contributed to some of what seems to be rookie mistakes in terms of recognizing some benefits to attempting to be more strategic about the price (and buying on the dip, perhaps?).

Saylor's/MSTR's buying the dip now seems to be the right thing to do, and personally, I would have found it to have been even more of a rookie mistake if MSTR/Saylor had not bought this current dip.. so in some sense it seems to me that MSTR is being a bit more whimpy in their buying ONLY $10 million  in this current dip as compared with how much BTC they were buying in the $50ks.. and yet ist is not easy to blame them for buying in the $50ks either because surely BTC prices could have gone up from there too and reached $250k and higher and never come back down to $50k and below prices.

For sure some dry powder needs to be saved in case the BTC price goes lower, but at the same time these seem to be buying opportunities currently in front of us.. because there is no guarantee that BTC prices are going to go lower, and we may well end up bottoming out somewhere in these price areas and some folks will be kicking themselves if they did not buy any BTC in these times of admitted ongoing uncertainties.  I know the feeling about how hard it was to continue to buy BTC throughout 2015 with spare cashflow while at the same time also keeping some spare cash available in case the BTC price dips lower...There seems to be a bit of a dilemma, and I have difficulties considering that sitting on your hands would be any kind of a prudent solution, especially for any company and/or person who is still generating regular ongoing cashflows (Saylor/MSTR seems to be generating regular ongoing cashflows)...

and by the way, I also know the feeling that if I had done most of my stacking of BTC in 2014, so by the time 2015 came, I did not have a lot of cashflow or resources remaining, so each stacking in 2015 seemed to have been a kind of stacking for ants relative to the size of the overall BTC portfolio.. and surely Saylor's/MSTR's stacking of $10 million at a time is comparable to my 2015 stacking of much smaller amounts, but a similar situation relative to the size of my overall BTC size.. and just continue to stack small amounts, while underwater and continue to hold some fiat just in case the BTC price goes lower and there might be some difficulties considering if there might be some extra resources that can be prudently deployed towards BTC because the vast majority of the arguably prudent resources had already been deployed at higher prices.