Topic: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ - page 19. (Read 21343 times)

He’s either a genius or very stupid & so far he looks like a genius. It’s really intriguing to see him relentlessly buying, there doesn’t seem to be anything that will stop him buying. He is repeatedly sweeping up the supply, every weak handed bitcoin owner should look at his persistence & question their own motives. You should always imitate what these kind of people do.

Yeah sure maybe it does not make a lot of sense, but the market is likely showing us that there is a certain kind of appetite for a product that seems inferior to holding bitcoin directly, and at the same time, there are individuals and institutions who are looking at these matters through fiat lenses and comparing their investment opportunities/options to other fiat investment opportunities that they have.. so gosh, if self-custody is so much outside of places that they are ready, willing and/or able to go, then there can seem to be a bit of irrationality in terms of their investment choices that cause prices also to be irrational for longer than anyone might consider viable.. .. .. and in this regard, we might be considering some kind of market movement dynamic to be irrational, but we have not quite understood the mindset of some of the investors who are making such choices (whether they are irrational or not, but they might be eliminating some seemingly rational considerations based on their own perceptions of their financial and/or psychological limitations).

I am not going to claim to exactly what motivates some of these folks because I am not from their world.. and also I am not easily able to put myself into their world including not really knowing which kinds of assets that already exist in their investment portfolio and some of the other motivating factors that they might have that may even have some gambling inclinations or maybe some going with "what others are doing" inclinations.....and for these folks, maybe bitcoin-related products are more "in-trend" than bitcoin itself.

This is what puzzles me the most.
I would have thought, and I was quite adamant to that, that I expected the "premium days" of MSTR when compared to Bitcoin were numbered with the launch of the bitcoin ETFs.
Instead this insanity non only sustained in the following months, but actually grew more.
And this latest move by Micheal Taylor demonstrates there is still appetite for buying bitcoins trough the massively redundant infrastructure of MSTR.

I am not going to claim to know any kind of exact answers regarding why some folks might choose certain kinds of investment vehicles, and surely the fact that an investment vehicle is popular can also drive a certain amount of extra demand for it.

Also, I am not sure how the convertible senior note differs from some kind of a loan or MSTR stock or some kind of a bond in the company, yet institutions and/or individuals choosing to invest in such are still going to weigh advantages and disadvantages to holding different kinds of instruments and perhaps getting exposure to bitcoin, MSTR, Michael Saylor, intelligence technologies and/or whatever else they might perceive their involvement in such convertible senior notes might offer to their purchase of that kind of a financial instrument as compared to other financial instruments as compared with buying bitcoin directly.  And, yeah in a case like this, there may well be ideas of exposure to dollars and getting interest in dollars and perhaps a kind of superiority of investing in a senior convertible note with MSTR than buying USA treasuries... and yeah, they may well be thinking about their investment into something bitcoin related in terms of assured dollar terms that the senior convertible note describes.

Many times people/companies investing into specialized offerings like a MSTR convertible note are already going to have various kinds of financial investments that they might consider either correlated or not correlated to some new thing that they are purchasing... It is doubtful that the convertible notes are the ONLY thing in their investment portfolio, even though surely we cannot overly generalize that there could be some companies and/or individuals that end up overly weighting their purchases into one or another kind of investment, such as an MSTR senior convertible note.

There are some people and/or institutions that like the idea to have a company (such as MSTR) managing, holding and getting exposure to BTC and the various aspects of MSTR and/or Saylor in a kind of sensationalism way... and yeah, various kind of offerings that MSTR makes (in this case senior convertible notes) are going to specify the terms and may have some special benefits that may well not be as good as holding bitcoin directly, but still the person/institutions buying such convertible notes might still consider the terms of such notes to provide some kind of reasonable expectation of returns.. whether or not they actually also hold bitcoin directly too.. (and sure I have no problem considering the idea that some of the institutions/people buying MSTR senior convertible notes might not even directly hold any BTC at all).    

There are other people and/or institutions that are not able (or maybe it is not easy or convenient for them) to buy bitcoin directly, so they are using whatever financial vehicles that they have available to them (or they hear about) to allow them to buy MSTR through such a financial vehicle (yes this is not MSTR, but it is a version of MSTR, and yeah, people/institutions might engage in some investment conduct that is not exactly maximizing in the sense that they might really be better off buying bitcoin directly).

For sure, those of us who already buy and hold bitcoin directly may well be quite reluctant to overly complicating our investments and/or adding various 3rd party risks to our bitcoin investment, but surely there are individuals and institutions that are quite uncomfortable (or even unable) to hold bitcoin directly.

Probably very basic question. Why would someone loan money to MicroStrategy instead of just buying BTC? I am sure there is reason, I just don't know and want to learn.

Here we go again.
Microstrategy announced a new Issue of convertible bonds to finance new Bitcoin Buys.

MicroStrategy Announces Proposed Private Offering of $500 Million of Convertible Senior Notes

Notes will be due on 2032 and Microstrategy reserves the right to issue an additional 75 millions in case of strong demand (I bet this is going to be the case).

MicroStrategy to be added to the Russell 1000. Which means a continuous bid no matter what. Next: S&P500.

https://investing.com/news/stock-market-news/supermicro-computer-microstrategy-set-to-join-russell-1000-3457316

Stroke of luck really, I was on Twitter (X) and saw it was broken 4 minutes previously.

I thought they’d stop at 210,000 too, 1% of the total supply would have been an epic statement. Seems they are not going to stop any time soon, relentless.

Twice beaten to news reporting by LFC_Bitcoin. Well done mate.

Fun fact: today. I read someone betting on Microstrategy stopping at 1% of total supply.
They were wrong only after few hours.

In regards to my earlier description of the MSTR shorters, surely I don't claim to be any kind of expert in regards to what they are doing or even trading in the kinds of ways that they are doing, since those who place shorts (and/or profitable from shorting need to have a certain skill and/or luck and sometimes they will also employ informational warfare to get the market to agree with their short - which may or may not end up working out - since there could end up being a Streisand effect), and so yeah I would not be wanting to make those kinds of plays, but that is part of the reason there are differing opinions in the market including differing risk tolerances and differing ways to achieve success (or die trying to reach success).

I recognize that my own earlier characterization of what the MSTR shorters are doing was not very accurate since they are simultaneously shorting MSTR and longing BTC at the same time, so they are seeming to want to specifically attempt to arbitrage (or target) what they perceive to be the current MSTR premium to suggest that the current MSTR premium is way above and beyond the value of the BTC that MSTR holds and therefore the premium of the value of the MSTR shares is so far out of wack that it has to come back down closer to a more reasonable level.. and so it surely could be possible that the MSTR shorters could play the wave sufficiently well in order to actually profit from the current MSTR premium coming back down in line - instead of their getting reckt as I suggested to be a possibility, yet if they set their short of MSTR and their long of BTC correctly then it may well become harder for them to get completely reckt.. so yeah, earlier I had mischaracterized the way that they were shorting as if they were betting against both MSTR and also betting against BTC when they seem to be merely trying to ONLY be betting on the seeming premium coming down to what they believe should be more reasonable levels... which may or may not end up working out for them, depending upon how greedy they are before taking their profits (and close their short).. and also if the market ends up agreeing with them that the MSTR premium is too much at this particular time.

Edit:  Wow fillippone.. we posted at the exact same time... except yours was entered into the threadchain first.. so there is some kind of a micro-second measurement going on in these here parts.

Let’s say also that Micheal Saylor is “trapped” in his bitcoin investment.
As he stated he would never sell his bitcoin, he is now “obliged” to do so.
In case he sell any coin the consequences for the share price would be catastrophic, as the premium would evaporate almost instantly.

From another angle, I also admire Microstrategy's dedication to accumulating bitcoin. Among the institutional investors, he is the only one I have seen who does that, as if he has no intention of immediately selling the bitcoins that he actually has.

It's not like his fellow institutional investors who have a timeframe when they sell their purchased Bitcoins, but he doesn't seem to have such a timeframe; instead, he just buys the price as long as there is an opportunity, He will take the chances to buy it. To be honest, bitcoin is that precious to him

hahahaha

I don't have anything against you.

I think that you might well be a fine chap, and from time to time, I even agree with some points that you make in various topics... .. .

It is just that it seem that you might not understand dee cornz very well, which contributes to my feeling some needs to respond to some of the points that you make - which are meant to be substantive disagreements that I generally tend to back up with either argument and/or facts, even though you have been registered on this forum for 9 years and 7 days..  Happy belated anniversary..

I think the inaccuracy about the origin of "HODL" outweighs any chuckles I get from that reference to that old song about poker, which just doesn't fit.  Anyway, that was my mini-rant about journalists getting facts wrong.  A lot.

Yeah, I read the last couple of posts in this thread, posted myself, and then went to Yahoo Finance to check news on MSTR.  I figured I'd look at the comments section and found what I showed in that screenshot, so it's very recent.  And I wouldn't think Michael Saylor would be buying any more shares of MSTR at this point.  If anything he'd probably be putting his own money into bitcoin.

Well, MSTR was being traded before any of the bitcoin involvement, right?  Microstrategy does have a business aside from just holding bitcoin, but at this point so much of the company's worth is dependent on bitcoin's price that the short sellers might have a point about its valuation.  Can't say that for sure since I haven't done (and am not going to) the mathematical analysis, so that's why I'm just going to break out the popcorn and see if anything unfolds.

MSTR is probably overvalued just like most of the stock market, so perhaps a solid correction in its price would be healthy.  We shall see.

Edit:  I posted this and then saw JJG's post addressing my previous one, so I wasn't ignoring it, just didn't see it.  Once again, I'm not attacking Saylor and you're most likely right about the insider trading thing.  That's why I said I wasn't sure.  Just take what I say with a grain of salt and perhaps un-wedge that stick you have lodged in your behind.

He does it for MicroStrategy and his own benefits and consequently his company stock has good price discovery since big decision to invest in Bitcoin since September 2020.

MICHAEL SAYLOR⚡ (MICROSTRATEGY) PORTFOLIO TRACKER
MicroStrategy is winning big

MicroStrategy and Michael, MSTR investors are winning big and it's good for them but I disagree with people who call Michael and MicroStrategy as Bitcoin saviors. They are not only investors in Bitcoin market and if they did not buy 214,245 BTC, there will be other investors buy those bitcoins. It's a free market and people must understand that in a bear market, purchases from MicroStrategy can not stop Bitcoin falls and in a bull market, price will rise without purchases from MicroStrategy.

Oh gawd...    You seem to want to latch onto almost anything in order to argue your various interpretations of either potential bad actor status to Saylor and/or MSTR, or to figure out some kind of way in which this whole thing is going to blow up on him...

And your various theories are not even that great and seem to be somewhat selective spins rather than being in the ballpark of objective.

You seem to ignore or downplay the fact that Saylor already announced that he would be selling shares  (exercising options that were due to expire) within this quarter and perhaps dragging out longer, and you seem to not even understand some of the outrageously fortunate circumstances that Saylor is in since his share price is going up at outrageous rates and he can both use that fact to leverage and to buy more BTC and he can simultaneously sell shares that he did not even have (except that they were options to be able to have them) while buying BTC for his personal stash through those proceeds.

Any of those entities shorting may well end up getting reckt as fuck since they are trying to act as if the leverage on BTC is a bad play when BTC remains in its current location of noman's land (which is the price range that is within about 20% of the previous ATH, which is around $55k to $82k), while at the same time opening new kinds of buyers and buy channels that are still in their earliest stages of ongoingly putting UPpity price pressures on BTC.. so if you consider that either BTC or MSTR is top-ish in these circumstances, then you seem to be living in a dream.. and yeah, Saylor is going to attract a lot of haters. and no coiners/low coiners, bitcoin naysayers blah blah blah who are wanting (wishing) to see his failure (and bitcoin's) failure, but they (just like you) are going to have to keep on crying harder...

Yeah, sure anything can happen.. but it just seems that facts and UPpity BTC market dynamics are way the fuck against betting against either BTC and/or MSTR and/or the strategy that Saylor is employing.. and yeah, maybe charges could be trumped up since traditional finance folks and governments are in a desperate as fuck state of affairs regarding their own stake in several aspects of the perilous dollar/fiat debt system that seems to be crashing in a lot of places.. while ongoing rescuing attempts are made, that include ongoing lying to people.. which yeah, people (including you) may well believe some of the misinformation that's being fed and/or failing/refusing to recognize the power of the cornz and that Saylor/MSTR is working within acceptable loopholes in the system.. and if anyone is going to go after him, they are likely going to have to jump through a bunch of baloney loopholes, just like you seem to be cheering on.. with your ongoing anticipation of some kind of desire to say "I told you so" .. which instead you should be attempting to be more humble in regards to really attempting to figure out what is really going on with the traditional debt laden financial system and the way that MSTR, Saylor and BTC's role in that is being played... including that the spot ETF approvals and the various actual marketing of BTC by BIG ASS financial players..


You seem to be going along with various narratives too much tiCeR.. Saylor is transparent, overly transparent and even a BIG mouth about a lot of what he is doing, and yeah, maybe it will end up backfiring for him, even though he is working within the system and seems to have a lot of great counsel and even his own creativity contributing to his and MSTR's approach to this.


Even though The Sceptical Chymist mentioned that knowing about shorters or the potential for shorters to potentially be "insider information," that sounds like a looney as fuck theory.  There may well be a need to look up the meaning of insider information that pertains to operations within the company rather than what the market may or may not be potentially going to be doing.


That is part of the problem, because shorts will especially work if there is some flaws in the fundamental value, and so surely shorting MSTR has a lot of parallels to shorting BTC, which seems like nearly a retarded move. .and good luck to the shorters, they are most likely going to need luck in order to be successful.. depending on how far they are trying to go with it..

Surely there could be some short term shorting that might end up being successful to get in and out of the trade, but yeah, these matters can surely end up blowing up on even purportedly smart shorters who might not completely realize the dynamite that they are playing with.. .. all fun and games until someone's eyes get poked out.


Even though we cannot really know who is who, OgNasty ends up being correct in terms of his framing that there are a large number of folks who are choosing to buy and/or to continue to hold MSTR shares rather than BTC, and yeah it adds extra risk in terms of considering whether MSTR will continue to outperform purely holding BTC if we are merely talking about playing the price exposure to BTC, yet at the same time, there are some players who may well be way more ready, willing and able to buy something like a share rather than buying BTC directly.. and so even if they are not exactly willing and/or capable of holding BTC directly, it would still not be incorrect for OgNasty to characterize them as folks who are choosing to hold MSTR over BTC and also to characterize Saylor as someone who is selling MSTR and buying BTC with it.... and so even if OgNasty might be wanting to point out hypocrisy and contradictory behaviors, the situation does not seem to be even close to as contradictory as he seems to be describing it to be, especially since Saylor is already way overly exposed to MSTR shares and his selling of options is not really materially or significantly diluting Saylor's control over the company, and the company is even better off with Saylor buying so many fucking BTC, whether it is for his personal stash or the other ways that he is employing MSTR's various leveraging vehicles to accomplish similar kinds of ongoing buying of BTC.


And of course it is a good play off of the lyrics or the famous "The Gambler" song by Kenny Rogers, too.


Of course it is true that Saylor is selling MSTR shares and he is not buying them and he claims to be largely buying personal BTC with the MSTR shares that he is selling... even though we cannot completely verify that he is actually buying personal BTC.. but there is no real reason to doubt him, either even though it is likely optional regarding what he actually spends the money on once he sells the MSTR shares.. whether that is actually BTC or hookers, lambos and blow.. and perhaps additional yachts .. but I speculate that there might be some feelings of diminishing returns in terms of how many hookers, lambo, blow or yachts a 59 year old single guy is going to want to have.


Of course, he is allowed to.  You need to come up with some pretty good legal theory or just make shit up if you are wanting to argue that he is not allowed to do what he is doing, which surely there are a lot of MSTR/Saylor/BTC haters who are jumping through such hoops to engage in their own fantasies about what is permissible or not


Where do you get those speculations regarding potentiality?  Surely, I am not going to fuck around with buying MSTR, but the mere fact that MSTR's main business seems to be being dwarft by BTC purchases and even that some folks (including in these here parts) had already speculated in late 2023-ish to sell MSTR and buy GBTC and even had decently good reasons to execute that trade, yet that surely would not have had been a great trade, even though GBTC's discount window did end up getting closed into being quite close to the underlying NAV.


There might not be a reason for a retail investor, except for wanting to play a bit of potential leverage, which seems not very necessary, even though there surely are still a lot of retail who are buying MSTR rather than BTC (and maybe many of them hold both).. . and yeah, there are some institutions and other kinds of buyers of MSTR who are not able to hold BTC directly with the kind of account that they are dealing with, whether it is some kind of a retirement account or other restrictions and/or difficulties to hold BTC directly, and some of them might even consider MSTR to serve as an even more efficient and forward-looking ETF than the actual ETFs because of the kinds of leveraging that Saylor does and the fact that Saylor seems to be such a BTC lunatic... some of the investors into MSTR are going to love that angle of Saylor and how he is deploying MSTR's capital in such an aggressive way.

Yes, I've been saying this as well.  Buyers can make the argument that the BTC per share is increasing, thus justifying a premium...  However, for a fund it makes perfect sense to go very long Bitcoin and then hedge your bet with a MSTR short.  If Bitcoin falls, MSTR will fall much more and if Bitcoin rises you can enjoy the appreciation while hoping that eventually the % premium on MSTR shares drops as people no longer want to pay double for BTC that is already expensive and it becomes clear that MSTR will not be able to double their stack or investors no longer want risk to debt exposure.

HODL is definitely a mistype born on this very forum (precisely, here).

Regarding the Shorting report, I read it, and it is a very basic math.
Everyone that bought MSTR recently should have done his homework knowing that he was buying Bitcoin at the double of the face value.
The report is here:

Yes it is true as it seems that Saylor has been quite transparent about it (or had to be transparent about it?). I am not fully into his buying/selling record concerning MSTR shares, but you can find a few reports where it became public that he sold shares several times when in fact you would expect the opposite considering his public communication. But let's face it, whatever he knew about the short selling, he is doing the right thing (unless this is some insider shit, which would of course make it illegal). You can short a company to death, but you can't short BTC to death. That is why I am surprised that (if OgNasty is right) people would instead accept a more complex risk exposure when they sell BTC and buy shares in a company. But it's true, nobody can really tell who is buying and selling what.



No you got this right, HODL was a typo back at the time. But it's quite funny that he turned it into some poker semantics: "Know when to HOLD, no when to FOLD".


Again another good catch which I wasn't aware of and I find that whole Saylor case interesting and am paying attention to it whenever I got some time to follow up on the news, but this is pretty suspicious! Wow. @The Sceptical Chymist did you find that screenshot today as it says "4 hours ago"? There are several reports about Saylor selling shares and I doubt those reports are wrong. He is incrementally selling quite frequently. When you google "Saylor buying MSTR", you'll get zero results. So there has to be some truth to it.

But again, if he is allowed to then he is doing the right thing. MSTR will most likely have limits or less potential to increase in price than BTC. I can't even see the point in holding MSTR instead of BTC. I don't get it. What would a good reason be to hold MSTR instead of BTC? Any ideas? I am mainly talking/asking about retail investors.