Terrahash has changed there prices to USD, maybe you should change from BTC to USD on the list too?
And a personal question, if you don't mind.
What miners have you invested in?
Topic: Mining Equipment Manufacturers - page 17. (Read 55712 times)
Based on recent posts, it looks like Terrahash is using Avalon chips, so it doesn't make sense to have their Lead Time be August and all the others be delayed to November. That said, I still don't understand why those are delayed all the way out to November. Based on the Sample Chips being shipped and recent communication from Avalon I don't think they'll be delayed by months.
A lot of people ask for this, but nobody has sent me a link showing that this is a reasonable assumption. I've asked a lot of questions and none have been answered.Well, what about the Terrahash thing. They definitely are using Avalon chips and they're not getting them any sooner than those group buys. It gives a false impression.
Terrahash ordered chips, and those chips will come in a lot sooner than someone who orders chips right now. This list is about lead time which means the amount of time it takes for the person to get their order from the date ordered.
But I did just realize it still says they are taking your chips for the product, so that's not your fault, thanks for pointing that out.
Everyone says the chips are made they just have to be sent.. I'm going to move the August time back soon too if there isn't some action here. I just don't see why people think it's reasonable to say the chips will come when the company says they will when this has been proven to be wrong many times in the past. They aren't willing to make reasonable estimates, or even push their estimate out past what they think it should be, knowing full well that there will be problems.
Based on recent posts, it looks like Terrahash is using Avalon chips, so it doesn't make sense to have their Lead Time be August and all the others be delayed to November. That said, I still don't understand why those are delayed all the way out to November. Based on the Sample Chips being shipped and recent communication from Avalon I don't think they'll be delayed by months.
A lot of people ask for this, but nobody has sent me a link showing that this is a reasonable assumption. I've asked a lot of questions and none have been answered.Well, what about the Terrahash thing. They definitely are using Avalon chips and they're not getting them any sooner than those group buys. It gives a false impression.
Based on recent posts, it looks like Terrahash is using Avalon chips, so it doesn't make sense to have their Lead Time be August and all the others be delayed to November. That said, I still don't understand why those are delayed all the way out to November. Based on the Sample Chips being shipped and recent communication from Avalon I don't think they'll be delayed by months.
OP, it's a good initiative and useful comparison. I think it can be improved quite a lot - especially for newer users.
If I can make some suggestions - clean up the text on the first post, and add more information - for example, explain all your assumptions, analysis and opinions. Claimed numbers by manufacturers are "objective" from an observer's point of view, your suspicions on scams, lead times, etc - not so much (not to say they add no value).
Explain "Lead time" in your front page post - it has a tremendous impact on profitability numbers - as a matter of fact, we could say that the profitability numbers are heavily affected not by specs, prices and performance of devices, but by your interpretation of lead times. As it stands, those numbers are irrelevant for a buyer looking at buying from a secondary market (and jump preorder queues). This will only get more obvious once people start selling say K16's (in hand) - these could be profitable in hand, but not profitable if you add a 10-week lead time for a new chip order. Maybe add a column showing what the ROI would be "today"?
Explain the ROI numbers "with avg. difficulty of" - or provide a link to good explanation / history of diff. As shown, the column label is technically not correct - average diff increase can't be used to calculate profitability reliably. (For example if over the next 3 months we have diff increases of 50% and then for the following 3 months we have increases of 10% the ROI numbers are completely different than if we had 3 months at 10% and then 3 months at 50%, even though your "average diff increase" would stay the same.) I suspect your ROI calculations are not at "average" 9%, etc, as claimed, but actually at constant 9%, etc.
Make 1 paragraph for each manufacturer on the list, add the link to the relevant site / thread, use this space as well to explain your assumptions about that specific manufacturer / product. Consider adding a new column for "proof of working unit / demo" to weed out speculation from actual products.
Add a bigger disclaimer for the people who are likely to treat this information as fact.
Finally, on a personal note - this is of course your thread and you can speculate all you want - but excluding BFL is simply not fair or logical - yes they have horrendous customer service and terrible lead times (and I would not trust them with one satoshi) - but at the very least they have delivered some Jalapenos, and allegedly even a single! I'm not saying you should add a mini-rig to your list - but let's not forget that your list includes some manufacturers who have delivered NOTHING but promises so far. Makes no sense.
If I can make some suggestions - clean up the text on the first post, and add more information - for example, explain all your assumptions, analysis and opinions. Claimed numbers by manufacturers are "objective" from an observer's point of view, your suspicions on scams, lead times, etc - not so much (not to say they add no value).
Explain "Lead time" in your front page post - it has a tremendous impact on profitability numbers - as a matter of fact, we could say that the profitability numbers are heavily affected not by specs, prices and performance of devices, but by your interpretation of lead times. As it stands, those numbers are irrelevant for a buyer looking at buying from a secondary market (and jump preorder queues). This will only get more obvious once people start selling say K16's (in hand) - these could be profitable in hand, but not profitable if you add a 10-week lead time for a new chip order. Maybe add a column showing what the ROI would be "today"?
Explain the ROI numbers "with avg. difficulty of" - or provide a link to good explanation / history of diff. As shown, the column label is technically not correct - average diff increase can't be used to calculate profitability reliably. (For example if over the next 3 months we have diff increases of 50% and then for the following 3 months we have increases of 10% the ROI numbers are completely different than if we had 3 months at 10% and then 3 months at 50%, even though your "average diff increase" would stay the same.) I suspect your ROI calculations are not at "average" 9%, etc, as claimed, but actually at constant 9%, etc.
Make 1 paragraph for each manufacturer on the list, add the link to the relevant site / thread, use this space as well to explain your assumptions about that specific manufacturer / product. Consider adding a new column for "proof of working unit / demo" to weed out speculation from actual products.
Add a bigger disclaimer for the people who are likely to treat this information as fact.
Finally, on a personal note - this is of course your thread and you can speculate all you want - but excluding BFL is simply not fair or logical - yes they have horrendous customer service and terrible lead times (and I would not trust them with one satoshi) - but at the very least they have delivered some Jalapenos, and allegedly even a single!
I'm not saying you should add a mini-rig to your list - but let's not forget that your list includes some manufacturers who have delivered NOTHING but promises so far. Makes no sense.
My prices are gonna be in the realm of 0.7 BTC
The Noitev K1 is listed in the chart at 2BTC, according to the thread they will be around $100 for 1, cheaper for more.
Oh you're right thanks! Unfortunately I don't know what to think since they are all crossed out at this point. And those are prices without chips so I'm not sure what it would turn out to be. Looking at the thread it seems maybe he took a guess but it didn't turn out to be quite doable. I don't really know what to post at this point, so I'll have to keep it where it's at. I'll post in his thread asking for clarifications. 
The Noitev K1 is listed in the chart at 2BTC, according to the thread they will be around $100 for 1, cheaper for more.
Yeah I have thought of doing that, I think it's a great idea. I should copy it over and see what it looks like.. hopefully get a chance this week.
I have a suggestion: Would it be easier to read if you showed ROI as a percent of cost in BTC? There is a very wide range of cost and hash rates, so showing results in BTC is difficult to interpret (you'd have to divide by cost in BTC to get % ROI).
However, since there are only a handful that are in the green anyway, that may not be such a big deal.
However, since there are only a handful that are in the green anyway, that may not be such a big deal.
Hi. I updated my Group Buy. Lower pricing. New escrow address.
Ok thanks!Bitcoin.ch added
Haven't found anything to discredit them.
Hi. I updated my Group Buy. Lower pricing. New escrow address.
Ok guys I finally watched Yifu's Bitcoin 2013 talk. Took a while to get the time to spend half an hour picking something apart. I can see why people want me to change their data, he seems very credible.
However..
It's very strange he said sabotage, there is no incentive there. Anyway, six miners being damaged can't account for months of waiting. They say the chips are made, I still don't see why people don't have them.
Where are the hardball questions guys? When do you get a chance like this? Guess I'll have to go next time with my own question list. He didn't even talk about sending chips at the conference. It was mostly about the miners. I really don't feel like any of my previous questions were answered.
To me it's as simple as this: People bought chips from them, they are not sending them. They don't have good reasons for this. Until I find some I'm going to keep moving them back. I think that because he seems like such a nice guy it's hard to question him, but personally I need some clear answers.
Thanks for the kind messages!
However..
It's very strange he said sabotage, there is no incentive there. Anyway, six miners being damaged can't account for months of waiting. They say the chips are made, I still don't see why people don't have them.
Where are the hardball questions guys? When do you get a chance like this? Guess I'll have to go next time with my own question list. He didn't even talk about sending chips at the conference. It was mostly about the miners. I really don't feel like any of my previous questions were answered.
To me it's as simple as this: People bought chips from them, they are not sending them. They don't have good reasons for this. Until I find some I'm going to keep moving them back. I think that because he seems like such a nice guy it's hard to question him, but personally I need some clear answers.
Thanks for the kind messages!
I also want to applaud your efforts on this chart. Every bit of sanity that can be injected into the current gold rush is much needed. I'm trying to do my part as well with warnings about GPUs and overpriced ASIC miners. The chart really shows that there are precious few ASICs that even have a shot at positive ROI--and I just don't think that message has gotten out there.
Hey just dropping in to show my appreciation for the chart, thanks :thumbsup:
Wooot! Super nice looking table! (hadn't checked in a few days)
I think you should revise your timetable regarding the Avalon chips projects. November seems way, way too late. Samples have been received already so some batches are on track with the 4 week schedule samples, which means you should expect the first chips to be delivered in 6 weeks (end of July) and the following batches on a weekly schedule thereafter. Samples are already in EE's hands, so the design should be tested shortly (so you'll have better estimates for finished product ETA).
I think you should revise your timetable regarding the Avalon chips projects. November seems way, way too late. Samples have been received already so some batches are on track with the 4 week schedule samples, which means you should expect the first chips to be delivered in 6 weeks (end of July) and the following batches on a weekly schedule thereafter. Samples are already in EE's hands, so the design should be tested shortly (so you'll have better estimates for finished product ETA).
Yeah I'm watching that closely too. I'm hoping the tech curve will keep us busy and interested in mining, but growth is definitely not steady in the short term.
It's possible that there will be certain times where a new cheap tech comes out and everyone can mine, then other times we'll need more infrastructure that only comes with capitol.
It's possible that there will be certain times where a new cheap tech comes out and everyone can mine, then other times we'll need more infrastructure that only comes with capitol.
i dont think it will grow THAT fast. GPU miners will stop at some point, where mining makes no sense to them and no new GPU miners will join. next FPGA miners will stop. Also with a incredible difficulty the ROI of ASICs will shrink and people will not hurry into them.
Your first point is true, but by the time that it really affects GPU miners, I would think their departure would also not slow the rate of growth that much.
The second point is very interesting, though. Will be curious to see how the realization of the new difficulty affects the currently-insane demand for ASICs.
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