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Topic: Monero (XMR) Speculation thread - page 32. (Read 50244 times)

hero member
Activity: 538
Merit: 500
July 20, 2014, 10:05:10 AM

...poloniex interfact has a strange way of defining the fib levels (from what I can tell: it's turned around for the current view of the entire history). calculating it by hand...
 

I think you are going to be grateful for this link (same UI as tradingview) Wink

https://cryptrader.com/charts/poloniex/xmr/btc
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
July 20, 2014, 09:43:19 AM
Agreed with dreamspark: relatively thinly traded, and highly volatile, so I personally prefer to look at all the data I can get (and btcwisdom doesn't have the historical data).


Looking at the complete poloniex data: we're back above daily SMA20 (i.e. upper daiy BB half), though not closing outside the BB (wouldn't call it a rally until that happens).




Would like to include some fib analysis, but the poloniex interfact has a strange way of defining the fib levels (from what I can tell: it's turned around for the current view of the entire history). calculating it by hand though, looks like in terms of the long term uptrend (0.00175 to 0.01) we're back to 31%, so well above the first retracement, and for the recent crash (0.01 to 0.00427) right above the first level as well.

Looking ahead, I think price finding support above 0.004 (current SMA50), 0.0035 (SMA20), lend support to a more stable recovery, otherwise we might face another leg down.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
July 20, 2014, 06:47:40 AM
below support line now  Undecided


Will we go to the previous higher low at 3.9 or even below it to the next fib retracement at 3.65 ?

I wouldn't worry too much about breaking a support line based on 5 days of data. Particuarly in an immature market such as this.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
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July 20, 2014, 06:17:00 AM
below support line now  Undecided


Will we go to the previous higher low at 3.9 or even below it to the next fib retracement at 3.65 ?
sr. member
Activity: 502
Merit: 251
July 19, 2014, 02:07:09 PM
^ What i've been pondering lately, what i'd do with mro if btc skyrockets. Would i sell some/how much. Im not sure, and it's irritating me.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
July 19, 2014, 02:00:27 PM
Fibonacci retracemen,ts based of previous ATH at 10 mBTC and previous low at 2.315 mBTC

8.6%  => 8.355 mBTC
61.8% => 7.064 mBTC
50.0% => 6.158 mBTC
38.2% => 5.251 mBTC
23.6% => 4.129 mBTC

meanwhile, still right on track. As long as this support line holds, we are doing well Wink


I think, once we break 5.8 mBTC we will jump to 7, maybe a short dip after that to 6 and after taht we go to 10 (and maybe above!)  Grin
This can all happen in the next few weeks... unless... Bitcoin goes in bubble mode.

If bitcoin goes in bubble mode, it is very difficult to predict the outcome. I think monero isn't mature enough to just not be influenced by this.
After all... if bitcoin goes from 600 USD to 6000 USD, that's a tenfold. Will monero be able to do the same price jump in fiat terms?
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
July 19, 2014, 01:22:41 PM
I am afraid a bit since we are reaching the end of the month and many miners will sell to pay for their VMs. If that is correct price will stay for a while at 0.004 which is not bad...

While this is a fact I would wager that the percentage of people who are cloud mining has shrunk in comparison to this time last month. Its also important to remember that most intelligent miners will sell periodically to protect themselves against crashes and many more will have sold in the spike above this price point. Also we are no where near the end of the month, ec2 bills are charged on around the 6th of the month and also are charged to credit cards so there is the scenario where you dont have to pay for what you have mined until two months from here.
sr. member
Activity: 502
Merit: 251
July 19, 2014, 12:49:26 PM
This bitch is gonna launch any second. Im buying.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
July 19, 2014, 12:38:56 PM
My target for Monero is 0.025 BTC short term (<1 year) with a possible bubble peak at 0.050 BTC
sr. member
Activity: 770
Merit: 250
July 19, 2014, 12:09:12 PM
can Monero reach the heights of Bitcoin?

I wouldnt be surprised if moneros price temporarily reached $300 per coin or so later on
legendary
Activity: 2730
Merit: 1288
July 19, 2014, 11:11:40 AM
can Monero reach the heights of Bitcoin?

Doubt in next few years. But you never know.
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
July 19, 2014, 09:58:29 AM
 can Monero reach the heights of Bitcoin?
legendary
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1001
getmonero.org
July 19, 2014, 09:33:12 AM
I am afraid a bit since we are reaching the end of the month and many miners will sell to pay for their VMs. If that is correct price will stay for a while at 0.004 which is not bad...
sr. member
Activity: 283
Merit: 250
July 19, 2014, 09:29:52 AM
It still looks incredibly similar to last month pattern.
I love how everybody still has access to Monero at very reasonable price for a long enough time, this truly looks like organic growth and it's very healthy.


Great post thanks. Simple, to the point, enlightening, short.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
July 19, 2014, 08:35:01 AM
Well looks like the pattern from around the 12th of June is forming again which if to be completed signals a strong leg back towards ATH. Defending the 0.00395 bottom yesterday was important and shows that this wasn't a flash pump.

I agree that the fundamentals of XMR do tend to make it pump harder as people try and get in on what is a relatively illiquid market.

Currently there is ~350BTC on the bid side and the ask side has been shrinking from over 135k XMR to around 122K XMR, this is encouraging given the relatively high emmision currently.

I wrote a post on the blockchain bloat and net hash on the main thread yesterday stating that the bloat had been much improved and the net hash and diff has followed the price rise very closely which is again a good sign. Short term: Buy, Long term: Buy. I think anything up to 0.006-0.008 is a stable price for the coin currently.
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 250
July 19, 2014, 07:43:32 AM
Bytecoin trolls go back to your own shitty 82% premined coin.

This is the Monero speculation thread, if you want to promote your scam coin and discredit Monero go troll in one of the Monero vs Bytecoin threads.

On topic: How high will we go this runup? 0.01? 0.0125? 0.015?

My guesstimate is 0.012-0.014

Im also considering this price. The real question is tho... how low will it go after that, so we can buy more during said correction? I need more cheap XMR before people realize it's true value.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
July 19, 2014, 05:44:08 AM
It still looks incredibly similar to last month pattern.
I love how everybody still has access to Monero at very reasonable price for a long enough time, this truly looks like organic growth and it's very healthy.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
July 19, 2014, 03:58:57 AM
Seems like we had a positive breakout. The supportline is'nt violated yet Smiley

full member
Activity: 227
Merit: 100
July 19, 2014, 03:52:19 AM
When you look at last months price action, it seems so similar to this months....a correction on 18th June followed by another leg up on the 19th June. Could we see another repeat in the next couple of days?
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