Anything can happen
Even if it goes to 0.00365, the uptrend is not violated.
still holds There are lots of people who capped the rally at 0.0058 by selling coins and many of them want to buy back. Also there are new buyers willing to enter. Potentially massive buyers.
this is manifesting itself in huge walls, with at least one transforming to a market buyOn the other hand, many current owners are so maxxed out it's not even funny. Like 1000:1 xmr:btc. There was some exuberance when it was rising and that will be quenched.
sentiment has normalized The miners' selling is pressuring the price. The coin is still useless and nothing interesting is about to come from the devs in at least a month. Technically it looks horrible with lower highs.
still does All we need is the post-top second low of 0.00408 to be broken so we will break the first low of 0.00395 also, and then dip to 0.00365 fibonacci zone and staring into the abyss.
actually we pretty much did just this, except that it rebounded - which was fully anticipated because these things happen in wavesI don't believe for a second that we dip to 0.002xx again, there are wealthy buyers to compete with each other preventing it. But 0.003xx is now very close.
8 hours to be exact (I have needed to admit the facts after burning money at ~0.005.)
We are likely talking about a longish decline though, just like the last time. It will be reinforcing itself cause the speculators also gradually throw in their towels.
see longer explanationTo change this gloomy outlook, the following must happen:
- 0.00426 to hold
it broke right away, setting a post-top low of 0.00377- asks below 0.006 to fall below
BTC100 (now:
BTC227)
not even close - sustained breakout from the double top
is not happening nowFat chance
Monero is a good coin. Buy and hold long term.
I have added comments in
bold.
longer explanation:
I am thinking whether it will go up or down. The wallmaker at 39, 405, 41, 44 etc. seems to be one person who is a buyer. (Typically buy walls are used by sellers, that's why the clarification..). If he is indicative of a larger movement of fresh money, the others will step in trying to frontrun the yet others coming after that. Then many of the shorters at 50+ will be trapped because they are short of their preferred position but the market does not give the volume at their preferred buy zone (30-40), or even higher.
If we break out to the 50 range, it'll get real interesting
So even though the bearish scenario I outlined did manifest, I am now actually quite optimistic regarding the near-term price action.