Topic: MoneyPot.com :: The bitcoin gambling wallet - page 30. (Read 77137 times)

thank you for trying to explain especially for me but I can assure you that most (if not all) of the app owners didn't understand the big announcement.

as you already know that I like it kiss and eli5 I will try and go on asking this way till I understand this special announcement. please bear with me and thank you in advance for the patience you need to sacrifice

what changed now for the app owners that was different before? and please I need the answer for app owner and not for MP or investors.

so lets do it step by step

my app has 1% HE like most of the app owners on MP. so lets take 1% and not 3% HE as an example

before we had 0% when a whale came to our app and wagered max and imo the max bet for 0% income for the app owner was 1x Kelly of the BR (please correct me if I am wrong)

what changed now in advantage for the app owner? how much will I get now instead of the 0% in case of a 1x Kelly max bet?

lets see if we can make this point understandable to all the app owners

then I will get to next question if needed

thanks

Thanks NLNico for taking the time to explain it. I'll try put it in different words for JackpotRacer. But let me prefix it with by saying for his case the new scheme is strictly better. There are no circumstances when he'll get paid less than before.

Bets can be put in three categories:

* Less than 0.5x kelly bets

In the binary-bet case (e.g. dice), this is when someone makes a bet trying to win less than half of the house edge of the bankroll. So with a 3% house edge, if the player is trying to win less than 1.5% of the bankroll.

* 0.5x to 1x kelly bets

In the binary-bet case (e.g. dice), this is when someone makes a bet trying to win between 0.5 and 1  of the house edge of the bankroll. So with a 3% house edge, if the player is trying to win between 1.5% and 3% of the bankroll.

* Greater than 1x kelly bets

In the binary-bet case (e.g. dice), this is when someone makes a bet trying to win between >1 of the bankroll. So with a 3% house edge, if the player is trying to win between >3% of the bankroll.


The commissions for placing each type of these bets vary:
* Less than 0.5x kelly bets

Apps get 50% of the house edge on every bet (regardless of outcome). This is paid by investors.

* 0.5 to 1x kelly bets

Apps get between 50% of the house edge, and 0% of the house edge. This is paid by investors in such a way that keeps them kelly-complaint. By default you can make this type of bet, but it has been requested to have an option in the admin panel to block them. As long as you don't offer a rakeback on these type of bets, accepting them is perfectly safe, though.

* >1 x kelly bets

Apps PAY investors to accept the bet.  (Don't worry, you can't accidentally do this type of bet, it can only be done via a confidential app using an explicitly subsidy argument).

--

We think in general apps should restrict themselves to <= 0.5x kelly bets, where their earnings are very predictable: 50% of the house edge. For promotional purposes they might want to use the other sort of bets, or to satisfy whales, or sell magical bet tokens etc.


While at a glance the investor:app profit split might look worse for app developers, to be clear MoneyPot was taking a 50% profit split on app developers earnings, now it takes 0%! All commissions will be taken from investor profits instead.

This makes it strictly better for app developers, although the story for investors is a bit mixed. Most bets investors will now make more, but there are circumstances when they may make less.

For the bigger picture, just imagine that the commission should have been divided by 50/50 between app and MP with the old rules. This should make you realize already that before you should have gotten less than 50% since investors obviously also get a share. Right? That's all you need to know, to understand why this is a better deal for app owners.






Now the "max profit" thing is something else.

Let's say app's HE to the players is 1.3% and BR is 450. This means max profit on a bet is: 450*1*0.013 = 5.85 BTC based on 1x kelly. Right?

Some examples how much percentage of the HE everyone gets with several bets:

Bet	App	Investors	MoneyPot
BTC5.25	0%	90%	10%
BTC4.4	25%	67.5%	7.5%
BTC3.1	47%	47.7%	5.3%
BTC2.925	50%	45%	5%
BTC1.5	50%	45%	5%
BTC0.1	50%	45%	5%

Basically, the higher the bet, the more money goes to investors because they can only risk their money based on 1x kelly. This also happened with the old rules, see this older post.

If you, as an app owner, want a 50% of HE guaranteed profit always, you can limit your max bet to 2.925 as shown in this example (if BR is 450 and player HE is 1.3%.) This is based on half kelly:

450*0.5*0.013 = 2.925

So basically, if you always want 50% of HE, you could do: 0.5*bankroll*player_HE = max profit of bet.







Ps, @Ryan, correct me if I have something wrong And I am not sure how the 10% of MP commission relates to the 1x kelly thing. Most dice-invest sites also don't really have 1x kelly as 1x kelly because of the commission, but idk.

When the bets get high enough, investors need an appropriate return for the risk they are taking. So, when it crosses the limit, but it does not meet the criterion, the commission is cut to compensate to make it meet the kelly criterion.
It simply means, you get more % on big bets, but if the bet is big enough and since the investor is taking a higher risk, it will go lower. But I think, it is still higher than what devs used to get in the previous method.
Predictable earnings means flat 50% off edge. For huge bets (a couple of bitcoins), you used to get around 1% before, but I think it should be much higher now.

Based on my understanding of things.
Thanks
ndnhc

my understanding of Ryan's announcement is and please correct me if  I am wrong
1x Kelly is 1% of Bank Roll
half Kelly = 0.5% of Bank Roll

will app owner now get 50% of HE of each 1x Kelly bet of Bank Roll? if yes I ask why Ryan tell us
we recommend apps limit bets to a half kelly for predictable earnings

if my app has always a max of 1x Kelly and I get 50% of HE why should I reduce the max to half Kelly?

as you can see I am still confused and thank all of for your patience to deliver an explanation that all of us will understand (even me)

Before with the official old rules app owners should get less than 50% (a bit below 40% to my estimation.)

However, because Ryan is a nice guy, he gave app owners extra commission sometimes, see for example this post. So even though app owners should have gotten 35-40%, the actually received commission was 61% based on the stats. This is only because some of the commission, that should go to MP, went to the app owners instead.


So: new rules are better for app owners compared to the old rules. But it seems worse based on stats, because MP gave extra commission to the app owners sometimes.


Is it more clear now?

Yeah, that estimate he posted goes against Ryan's idea that investors should benefit more on huge rolls than on small. I think something's off with it for that reason.

So: new rules are better for app owners compared to the old rules. But it seems worse based on stats, because MP gave extra commission to the app owners sometimes.

even more confusing now because now I understand that even it is worse for app owners it is better for app owners

I would like to ask some of the guys who understood the announcement Ryan gave to be so kind and explain it in ELI5 = an example with numbers to really see all the pro and cons for the app owner

thanks a lot for trying to shed some light

but it doesn' look right to me because the new offer should not have any differences anymore for small, medium and big rolls but sure thing that I could be wrong

lets see if we get an explanation that will be understood and satisfy all

As % of house edge. All are estimates.

Small rolls

Before:
MP : Max 50%. Average 49% (estimate)
Dev : Max 50%. Average 49% (estimate)
Investor : 2%

After:
MP : 5%.
Dev : max 50%.
Investor : 45%.

Big rolls

Before:
MP : 1%
Dev : 1%
Investor : 98%

After:
MP : 5%
Dev : Max 50%
Investor : Min 45%.


Medium rolls
Something in between.

As per my understanding.  

Not really. Well based on the stats it is I guess.

However officially MP's share was much bigger. Officially the share between app owners and MP was 50/50. Therefor officially the app devs should get much less than 61%. So the app owners get a worse deal based on the stats, but a better deal based on the official MP "rules".

AFAIK, MP gave extra commission to app owners sometimes. And currently MP gives also a better deal to investors (commission-free.) This is why the stats are not really correct.



So basically in the end, I think these new rules are actually better for both the app owners and the investors. And mostly bad for MP.

Based on the stats: app devs go from 61% to 50%. MP from 14.5% to 10% (and with variance instead of guaranteed.) Investors from 24.5% to 40%. So yes, should be good for investors. This is all in theory and based on stats, I agree with RHavar that it depends on other factors as well.

I think this is a very good move!

BIG UPDATE TO APP AND INVESTOR PROFIT SHARING

Apps will now get a constant 50% of the house edge, with investors continuing to take the risk. This means investors give the extra 50% of the house edge to apps. MoneyPot will no longer take a commission from apps, but now a 10% commission on all investor profit (but not on app-profit).

If apps place a bet that would put investors (after giving the commissions) at greater than 1x kelly risk the investors will give apps a reduced commission to limit themselves to a kelly. For this reason, we recommend apps limit bets to a half kelly for predictable earnings. If there is demand, we can create a setting in the admin panel for apps to reject any bet that exceeds this risk.

The 10% investor profit commission will kick in once the investor profits reach their previous high levels (~50 BTC). From then on, investors will pay a 10% fee on further profits, this will be deducted upon divestment, or on a monthly basis.