Topic: MoneyPot.com :: The bitcoin gambling wallet - page 41. (Read 77125 times)

@Monopoly you can trade everything. but there is no way you can longterm beat the expected value by strategically in/devesting. (Well you could if you can predict the future )

This is totally variance and not a guarantee that you will get as high as 5 % again. Few days ago investor suffer a huge lost instantly and afterward the investment is back to 20+ BTC now. Pretty much a roller coaster and very risky , this would be a personal warning for you to not expect for "profit" solely . You might get a good result until now but dont expect that it will last forever

To be honest, Investment in here is pretty much like a gamble itself which instead of gambling to win against the house , you are gambling against the player to lose and that means you could lose as well

P.S : it seems MP is undergoing emergency maintenance currently, wonder what cause it?

5% is so high you can trade on it ! i am trying it for somedays and got good result till now

Yeah, likely. There's nothing like fractional reserving going on, so people will always be free to withdraw their money when ever they want. And as investors do divest it does makes it more attractive for existing and new investors (in terms of both EV and stake) and should reach a healthy equilibrium. Right now our biggest win was something like only 1.6 BTC on a 1% house edge (which could be supported by a bankroll less than half the size), so I'd like to judge my success based on more gambler-focused metrics, rather than my ability collect superfluous liability.

This is expected to happen, after a huge loss of investor there will be a new investor to invest more hoping that those who win will keep on gamble and eventually lose it all. Variance may kick in for the investor and they were taking a huge dip for that however it is pretty much a gamble to begin with and now the gamble is sure to pay off for the investor who stays


With this enormous rise in volume, people are hoping that who are gambling to lose therefore more profit for the investor. Another reasoning behind this would be that the sudden rise to +20 BTC profit in just a short time ( pretty much like a miracle ) after the huge lost. This is very tempting for those who wanted a quick profit thus investor pile in to hope that this "miracle" happen once again

I think this has more to do with the enourmous rise in volume. if this drops, money will be withdrawn

IIRC, the bankroll was a little bit over 300 btc 2 days ago before the "Special investor promotion" is implemented, but it is now 388 btc. So clearly there are some "smart" investors coming for the promo. It will be interesting to see how much bankroll will be gone when the promo is off.

For the record, we are very happy with our relationship with RHavar and Moneypot. He and his team have been essential in offering advice to our casino to improve and has been there through both the good and bad days since launch.  

The best part of this industry is we can build and develop it in ways that further enhance the public perception of how a Bitcoin casino business should operate. We hope the days of scams become a distant memory and only want the best for this industry and it's growth. Though some of our businesses may see each other as competition, in the end it's the fiat based gamblers that are suffering the worst. These players are my long term goal and hopefully will open more peoples' eyes to blockchain based technology and the benefits of playing with Bitcoin vs. traditional currencies.

To our investors I thank you, it is impossible to find a perfect balance but in the hours/days of speaking with Moneypot's team their intentions are to do the very best for everyone involved, most importantly the players who are the life blood of this industry. Enjoy yourselves, have fun, and keep the suggestions coming as we will continue to evolve into something worth praising.

Thanks for the reply. I imagine you are in a bad position if the investors and the app devs are nagging

It will likely end like in so many fields, the equilibrium will be found way above of what "should" be. and the only money staying in will be "stupid" money that doesn't care/compare options.

But as the company you should not care about the type of money that is invested, as the "more stupid" the money invested is, you earn more. (i.e. if 50% more than "should" be is invested, you will earn a substantially higher riskfree profit)

The max interval is unfair on investors, as it would mean they would be put in a position where they risk more than a fully kelly. And if apps want to guarantee some profit, they can already just not accept huge bets. And the min interval makes sense in many case, except when apps want to make balanced bets which don't pose risk to investors (but have a house edge) and suddenly need to pay a comission.

But you're right about the idea of investors piling up, decreasing the EV. It was actually an intentional function of the design. If investors invest, and it's not utilized by having gamblers bet bigger it means the EV drops. So hopefully it's pretty self-regulating.


Thanks, it's appreciated it. Sorry I sometimes seem a bit grumpy about it, it's not that I'm not 100% satisfied with it or not considering change it, but it's on a daily basis I have to field complaints from both app developers and investors about not making enough (when in reality, it's just a trade off of who gets what money ).

I'm sympathetic to investors as some of them have lost money (so I'm giving them my commissions for the time being), but I'll tend to side more heavily with apps. Many of them have spent thousands of dollars in development and marketing, and hundreds of hours of time, etc. And without them, investors could have 100% of the profit shares, but still make 0.

Investors on the other hand, have a pretty passive job (although subject themselves to a huge amount of counter-party risk), so as long they're getting a decent return I think that's fair

 I believe current stats are very well for everyone. Investor gets well enough when a whale takes a nose dive , app owners gets a decent chunk considering they are not risking their money , ryan gets decent chunk as well for providing this service.


 It is like gamers complaning about half done games releasing before they are done. They can't just stop playing the game , so they buy it but still complain about it .

 If moneypot decided to stay put , investors will complain but each day invested money will rise . App owners will complain but there will be more and more apps with more wagered amount in the end. So stay put , it will grow bigger then expected and you will have what every big firm has , problems . You can't make everyone happy , some people will be dissatisfied whatever you do.

The current situation of you donating your share aside, I was just wondering about the longterm situation. Most people are so ridiculously unaware of situations that they don't realize that if they pile up the investments, that they will basically not generate any EV at all. That why I suggested the [min;max] intervals.

But its obviously your site I am just giving some feedback as an investor.

And those 99% bets pretty much contribute no risk to the investors too. =) Investors are rewarded proportional to the risk they take.


While that works in most cases, there's some specific cases where it can't



It also means the 400 BTC bankroll wasn't needed it that case, but if a 4 BTC attempted win was made the investors would get the entire house edge. So it's a self regulating system in many regards.


Right now, 100% of my commissions are being diverted to investors, so I'm literally making zero money (for the time being) and still have investors wanting to move the profit share more in their favor, and apps wanting to move it in their favor (they're the ones paying for advertising, rake backs, affiliates and development).

But the unfortunate reality is, there's only a finite amount of money in the system and it's just a set of uneasy trade-offs.

Hi

i was playing in BUSTABIT and found some players are coding in AUTO tha they are winning nice amount of BTC , so thought of anyone is their how have the bot . i got 2 bots if anyone wants to share they can contact me


thanks

Thanks for the link. Well, its an interesting structure. But also means that the investors pretty much can discard 99% of the bets

PS: there is now plan to set a minimum houseedge in % of total houseedge for investors, is there? like 10% of total house edge as absolute minimum even if the bet is only 100 satoshis or smthg.

PPS: so now with 400 BTC bankroll, even a very big bet of 1 BTC will only net 0.25 % HE to the investors at a 1 % HE site.

maybe this posting from Nico helps

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.12099854

ok I see. But for example Betterbets.io stats claim that it contributed over 90 BTC to the investors. Is this figure true or is this before "comission"?

I just try to get a feel about how much the house really gets % wise of player losses.

There are 300+ apps, most inactive by some person who looped the app name w known vulnerabilities lol (xss.)

In theory you can see them by manually changing the ID at an app detail page.

good question where can we see all apps? there are many apps we don't see because owners
are testing and betting on their own site with 0.1% HE

I thought the featured apps are all the available apps. Apparently not. So where can I see all apps?

(but what I noticed is, the featured apps do nearly have all the betting volume anyways esp betterbets.io)