What is the EV for investments at Moneypot? I had thought it to be a little below 1% of wagered, but it seems to be wrong. AFAIK, it could be anywhere in a range. And with a 100% upper limit? What is the lower limit (for a bet to be accepted by Moneypot)?
It's a little involved, unfortunately, and there's no simple answer. Probably the best read is:
https://www.moneypot.com/faq#what-is-the-investment-option-Basically any bet that is kelly-compliant is accepted by investors. Sometimes a house edge of 0.001% is all that's needed for that, or other times it could be 10%. Any bet that is not kelly-compliant from the investors perspective is rejected. Any bet that is exactly kelly-compliant, the investors take 100% of the risk and 100% of the rewards. If the bet is *better* than a kelly-complaint bet (from the investors perspective), MP arbitrages the difference and does a 50-50 profit share with the app.
So from an investors point of view, the same bet with a 1% or 10% house edge would have the same amount of risk and reward (but the apps and MP are going to make a lot more from the 10% house edge bet).
And if you had a whale who was max-betting each round on a 1% house edge site, the investors would have an EV of exactly 1% (and MP and apps would make 0).