Btw. should I send the trendline points at the time of their calculation?
The current trend did not of course apply at any past time because they did not have all the data.
Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend - page 8. (Read 118200 times)
Thank you 
Next question is - what will happen next?
A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs
B) Something else (what?)
Next question is - what will happen next?
A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs
B) Something else (what?)
I think if more bad new comes, it can maybe go under the trendline?
Or people see the bad news only let bitcoins suffer a little, and more people will invest in bitcoins?
I hope for the last but i know, people are still very sceptical vs bitcoin.
Im trying to get more friends in to it but they dont care about it yet.
Thank you
Next question is - what will happen next?
A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs
B) Something else (what?)
Next question is - what will happen next?
A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs
B) Something else (what?)
In a sane and rational world, a period of consolidation, improvement and contemplation.
But this is Bitcoin....
Thank you
Next question is - what will happen next?
A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs
B) Something else (what?)
Next question is - what will happen next?
A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs
B) Something else (what?)
I updated the logarithmic trend chart.
It looks to me like we have hit the line. (Bitstamp 600ish)
It looks to me like we have hit the line. (Bitstamp 600ish)
Another great thread Risto, congrats
No, I can not. So far others have done that part
I'm about to do a complete overhaul of this, I have an analyst working for me. The resolution will be daily, with trendline parameters also constantly updating. Please calculate the current trend using the following parameters, they are very close to correct:
I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:
y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424
Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.
The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.
We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.
The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.
y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424
Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.
The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.
We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.
The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.
Today Feb 11, we are at $668 in the trendline.
Could you post an updated graph of this?
I'm about to do a complete overhaul of this, I have an analyst working for me. The resolution will be daily, with trendline parameters also constantly updating. Please calculate the current trend using the following parameters, they are very close to correct:
I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:
y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424
Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.
The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.
We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.
The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.
y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424
Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.
The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.
We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.
The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.
Today Feb 11, we are at $668 in the trendline.
Could you add new data to the OP? Would be nice to see how it has been doing on this exponential trend line. Price on the trend line is now something like 650$/btc, right?
Just eyeballing the super-exponential chart, we seem to be lagging the most ever (on par with October) below it. I hope no one takes it as a buying opportunity, because short-term disappointment will be so drastic I hope it ends the short life-span of this lame attempt at regression. 
Bought today on margin.Condolences.
The first 150x was utterly trivial compared to the next 150x; this endeavor is not inevitable yet. The next 10x is more than the climb from zero to where we are right now. The easiest part came first with all due credit to the innovators. Now comes the real work of converting the early majority. Most of us are early adopters (fans beyond all rational). Bitcoin and all derivatives thereof will be contained in a niche unless a very good plan is formulated and executed. Absolutely nothing technical will take us there although plenty of it won't hurt. Our only real hope to breakout is the magic of an idea whose time has come.
Find someone open-minded but clearly outside our worldview, if you can hook them then carefully analyze their process of conversion. Gather dozens of these and synthesize from them the plan. Be prepared to invest significantly. Failed attempts will harden their hearts against us.
The early majority will not work like us; it is not their dream. They are merely users. They like the benefits but leave the growth to someone else.
Find someone open-minded but clearly outside our worldview, if you can hook them then carefully analyze their process of conversion. Gather dozens of these and synthesize from them the plan. Be prepared to invest significantly. Failed attempts will harden their hearts against us.
The early majority will not work like us; it is not their dream. They are merely users. They like the benefits but leave the growth to someone else.
Is it really possible that BTC will reach $100.000 in the next 5 years ? That will take me out of poverty for life !
That is only 150x from here.
When I bought, it took only 2 years to 150x.
My friend bought at an opportune time in 2010, it took <1 year to 150x his money.
Yes, I say it is very much a possibility.
This is a really interesting topic.
I am wondering how I can get money to put as much in to coins/mining as possible.
I wanna be a millionare in a few years, if this expectations are true i can be.
I am wondering how I can get money to put as much in to coins/mining as possible.
I wanna be a millionare in a few years, if this expectations are true i can be.
Is it really possible that BTC will reach $100.000 in the next 5 years ? That will take me out of poverty for life !
Just eyeballing the super-exponential chart, we seem to be lagging the most ever (on par with October) below it. I hope no one takes it as a buying opportunity, because short-term disappointment will be so drastic I hope it ends the short life-span of this lame attempt at regression.
Bought today on margin.
Just eyeballing the super-exponential chart, we seem to be lagging the most ever (on par with October) below it. I hope no one takes it as a buying opportunity, because short-term disappointment will be so drastic I hope it ends the short life-span of this lame attempt at regression.
I have the feeling that we have to go below the trend for some time now, and at the close of the year, we will still be in the trend channel of $3-$13k. Ahhh... boring. :p
And that said, the price right now could be undervalued, as hard as that is to believe!
We absolutely know that's true, because if China and other nations hadn't been imposing regulatory impediments to the preferences of firms and individuals, then the price would be significantly higher.
But they are.
Markets deal with realities, not "what the price would be if ... ". Central authorities can influence prices far beyond their actual on the ground impact using propaganda, irrational psychological reactions of crowds (chilling effects) and overt price controls.
And that said, the price right now could be undervalued, as hard as that is to believe!
We absolutely know that's true, because if China and other nations hadn't been imposing regulatory impediments to the preferences of firms and individuals, then the price would be significantly higher.
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