Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend - page 5.

David Latapie

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Quote from: KeyJockey on June 01, 2014, 03:45:59 PM

SlipperySlope's (Stephen Reed) original spreadsheet model is available on Google Docs here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

Wow, I don't understand how it works. Thank you anyway.

KeyJockey

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Quote from: David Latapie on May 30, 2014, 03:44:47 PM

Can we get an update?

SlipperySlope's (Stephen Reed) original spreadsheet model is available on Google Docs here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

{Edit} Oops, sorry... forgot this is RPietila's thread, not the SS thread Tongue

David Latapie

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Quote from: minimalB on April 01, 2014, 05:48:55 AM

Here is updated tonico's chart made with R:

Code:

https://i.imgur.com/ycT9ulP.png

Can we get an update?

KeyJockey

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Quote from: bitebits on May 18, 2014, 03:37:26 PM

Read the topic from SlipperySlope as well https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/stephen-reeds-million-dollar-logistic-model-366214

Great thread, thanks. Just skimmed it so far but already I see the value there (and, yeah, of course it'll level off at $1M, duh! LOL. Nothing increases exponentially forever, but still maybe it's gonna actually level off at "only" something like $800K or $1.2M) Grin

Anyway, yeah, I'm gonna def take the time & really read carefully thru all of that thread too, plus all the links. Great stuff.

Thanks again.

Cool

bitebits

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Flippin' burgers since 1163.

@KeyJockey:

Read the topic from SlipperySlope as well https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/stephen-reeds-million-dollar-logistic-model-366214

KeyJockey

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Quote from: Valerian77 on May 08, 2014, 08:14:11 PM

Ha, love it! But any particular reason why it necessarily HAS TO level-off at "only" $1 million? Grin

Don't get me wrong, I love this chart and really (really really) hope it's true... I'm personally tryin' really hard to get ahold of as much BTC as I can, right now at these recent "low prices" (I'm still spending some, but just tryin' really hard to make a little stash too, LOL)...

But just being Devil's Advocate here, for the sake of argument: what would be some of the major reasons why you guys might consider that this chart and/or the long-trend might NOT actually hold true??

Again, not tryin' to throw any cold water on the optimism here, but y'know... after the last few months of "crashing" prices, it might be prudent to keep all possibilities (both positive and negative) in clear view of the road ahead.

Cool

NXTplayer

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it's so incredible that the price is rocketing.

zimmah

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I think it's more likely to peak 6~8k and possibly 10k+ but 300k seems a little early.

Not entirely impossible, but still not very likely

explorer

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Quote from: Valerian77 on May 08, 2014, 08:14:11 PM

That is beautiful Cool

Look how the april/nov 2013 peaks reflect the first two blips on the chart Grin

Hodl on for the ride to the 2011 peak at about $300000 Cheesy

Valerian77

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ask

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Waiting for update

minimalB

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Here is updated tonico's chart made with R:

Code:

https://i.imgur.com/ycT9ulP.png

And updated R source:
http://pastebin.com/1wFgtA79

durrrr

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Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on March 31, 2014, 09:57:53 PM

Quote

this is really crazy to see how good of an investment bitcoin would have been for the early adopters. like wow thousand % returns and stuff Smiley very good to see

Depending of course on the final adoption numbers it could be that we are still in early adopter, early majority stage of network growth, e.g. 2 or 3 more orders of magnitude growth left.

Those people messing around with bitcoin when it was worth cents or a dollar weren't early adopters but akin to the founding members of a start-up, garage-dwelling innovators, experimenters tinkering where absolutely nothing was certain or even clear what it was they were messing with. Some of this fog is clearing but nothing is yet certain, the risks to failure however decrease with every increase in usage (and thus price) somewhat paradoxically.

i could see this being true and i love the anology of the founders. but i feel like you are right about 2-3 more growths left and bitcoins being with 20-50k $ a peice in a few years and bitcoins being very popular everywehre

marcus_of_augustus

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Eadem mutata resurgo

Quote

this is really crazy to see how good of an investment bitcoin would have been for the early adopters. like wow thousand % returns and stuff Smiley very good to see

Depending of course on the final adoption numbers it could be that we are still in early adopter, early majority stage of network growth, e.g. 2 or 3 more orders of magnitude growth left.

Those people messing around with bitcoin when it was worth cents or a dollar weren't early adopters but akin to the founding members of a start-up, garage-dwelling innovators, experimenters tinkering where absolutely nothing was certain or even clear what it was they were messing with. Some of this fog is clearing but nothing is yet certain, the risks to failure however decrease with every increase in usage (and thus price) somewhat paradoxically.

durrrr

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Quote from: dnaleor on March 31, 2014, 08:00:58 AM

Quote from: rpietila on March 31, 2014, 05:40:55 AM

I updated the last month(s). Now it would be very cool if someone made the chart!

Here is the chart:

I did not run a regression analysis. I will do that once I have a better data set for the period before gox.

this is really crazy to see how good of an investment bitcoin would have been for the early adopters. like wow thousand % returns and stuff

very good to see

rpietila

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My daily dataset that I use at home is currently showing:

trendprice = 10^ (0,003066x - 2,904980)

R^2 = 0,928955.

I think the R term is pretty cool for a 5.25 year dataset spanning over 6 decades (ADD: of prices, LOL)

Grin

dnaleor

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Quote from: rpietila on March 31, 2014, 05:40:55 AM

I updated the last month(s). Now it would be very cool if someone made the chart!

Here is the chart:

I did not run a regression analysis. I will do that once I have a better data set for the period before gox.

croato

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1BkEzspSxp2zzHiZTtUZJ6TjEb1hERFdRr

I will put some us$ in BTC again, now is right time in my opinion. Also, last time i have earned some bucks on that so i guess it would be fair to invest again.

rpietila

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I updated the last month(s). Now it would be very cool if someone made the chart!

After the chart is in place, you can easily see how good buy point this is, with very high probability the best that we will ever more have.

Of course it is possible that this method will not have predictive ability in the future, but I would not bet against it, considering that it has predicted exactly everything that has happened since October Grin

dnaleor

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Quote from: rpietila on March 30, 2014, 03:43:23 PM

I had to delete 2 otherwise good posts that use the wrong trendline. Please post them to another thread. This thread uses price data which is approved by me (main difference is that my data is from 1/2009 and others from 7/2010)

No problem mate Wink

Maybe I will start my own thread.

I am still looking for early data. I have data for april 2010 onwards. Where did you get the data for 2009?

edit, found the answer:

Quote

1/2009-5/2010 Attempt to find data of actual OTC trades. The trades found, happened between 0.0010-0.0054. We do not currently know exactly if there was a trend to either direction during this time, or if trades were isolated. Assumed flat 0.005 for the purposes of this analysis but will change if appropriate.

I found some data for the early exchange "Bitcoinmarket": http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bcmPPUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
I will go through the forum for other data

Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend - page 5. (Read 118200 times)