Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend - page 9.

BitChick

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Quote from: Roger_Murdock on February 08, 2014, 08:14:37 PM

Quote from: Ducky1 on December 30, 2013, 05:23:19 PM

My alternative approach - log vs log(log) from 01.11.2011 to present. Conclusion: The log-log model seems to better fit the data than the linear-log model, and according to this model we are actually slightly under the trend line. Comments?

You know, I'm starting to suspect we might not be following the super-exponential trendline.

Just kidding. $10,000 in May for sure.

Not sure if this was posted in seriousness, but with the "crash" this week only falling to around $650 to $700 this puts us closer to the log-log model I would think? Of course it is part wishful thinking, but then I think that we are just barely into 2014 and if the "low" price is where we are supposed to be in June according to the Log-linear growth line we are looking at a faster rate of growth here.

And that said, the price right now could be undervalued, as hard as that is to believe!

Roger_Murdock

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Quote from: Ducky1 on December 30, 2013, 05:23:19 PM

My alternative approach - log vs log(log) from 01.11.2011 to present. Conclusion: The log-log model seems to better fit the data than the linear-log model, and according to this model we are actually slightly under the trend line. Comments?

You know, I'm starting to suspect we might not be following the super-exponential trendline.

Just kidding. $10,000 in May for sure.

greenlion

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Quote from: zimmah on January 25, 2014, 04:30:22 PM

Quote from: rpietila on January 25, 2014, 02:15:19 PM

I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:

y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424

Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.

The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.

We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.

The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.

is that day.month.year or month.day.year? (little known fact: there's an international date format standard, yyyy-mm-dd), sadly, it's not very commonly used.

It's most likely dd-mm-yyyy because x is defined as the days passed since "3.1.2009", and the third of January 2009 was the date of the Genesis block.

zimmah

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Quote from: rpietila on January 25, 2014, 02:15:19 PM

I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:

y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424

Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.

The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.

We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.

The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.

is that day.month.year or month.day.year? (little known fact: there's an international date format standard, yyyy-mm-dd), sadly, it's not very commonly used.

rpietila

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I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:

y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424

Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.

The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.

We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.

The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.

knightcoin

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Stand on the shoulders of giants

Quote from: rpietila on January 25, 2014, 09:43:50 AM

??

the name itself quite explanatory ; following it (trace it)

rpietila

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??

knightcoin

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Stand on the shoulders of giants

Quote from: rpietila on January 25, 2014, 09:03:34 AM

I have had other projects, sorry.

=--trace-route

Wink

rpietila

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I have had other projects, sorry.

Malte

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Any status on the update? January is almost over and I think we are still missing the data point for december Huh

or did I overlook something?

keystroke

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advocate of a cryptographic attack on the globe

Eager to see an update soon. Subscribing! Let 2014 be the year of the coin. And 2015, 2016...

kehtolo

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Cool thread, I'm posting here for bookmarking purposes.

rpietila

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Update coming soon!

I will base the updates in the more accurate trendline which is based on daily figures.

rpietila

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Quote from: BitchicksHusband on January 02, 2014, 06:25:29 PM

I'm so tired of the extrapolation argument (OMG, bitcoin will be worth 1000 trillion in 2017!!! Ha ha ha.). YES, we all understand that bitcoin has a top and will slow down when it approaches that top (hence why it's called an S curve and not a J curve).

But the questions remain:

Where is the top?

Here.

Quote

How fast does it get there?

It will continue to increase at about the established rate (double every 99 days on average) until we are there. So if we estimate that Bitcoin will totally replace the current system and reach 100 trillion market cap, it is trending to happen about October 2017. Considering that there will likely be a huge readjustment before universal adoption, the actual long term value (or higher) will be reached ahead of the trend. Even now we are ahead of the trend!

NewLiberty

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Gresham's Lawyer

Quote from: BitchicksHusband on January 02, 2014, 06:25:29 PM

I'm so tired of the extrapolation argument (OMG, bitcoin will be worth 1000 trillion in 2017!!! Ha ha ha.). YES, we all understand that bitcoin has a top and will slow down when it approaches that top (hence why it's called an S curve and not a J curve).

But the questions remain:

Where is the top?
How fast does it get there?

What happens when a denominator approaches zero?

BitchicksHusband

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I'm so tired of the extrapolation argument (OMG, bitcoin will be worth 1000 trillion in 2017!!! Ha ha ha.). YES, we all understand that bitcoin has a top and will slow down when it approaches that top (hence why it's called an S curve and not a J curve).

But the questions remain:

Where is the top?
How fast does it get there?

bitrider

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Yup. Just read through his work. Excellent adjunct to this thread. Very cool.

Ducky1

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📱 CARTESI 📱 INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SCA

I just realized that gbianchi has an explanation from his analysis of the blockchain as to what changed during the middle to late part of 2011. Go read https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/24-feb-report-bitcoin-price-theory-proposal-394221 . Basically the social classes of bitcoin holders where established in this period, and remains more or less unchanged to this date.

dnaleor

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Quote from: Ducky1 on December 30, 2013, 05:23:19 PM

My alternative approach - log vs log(log) from 01.11.2011 to present. Conclusion: The log-log model seems to better fit the data than the linear-log model, and according to this model we are actually slightly under the trend line. Comments?

I love this kind of charts Cheesy

Ducky1

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📱 CARTESI 📱 INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SCA

Quote from: Pruden on December 31, 2013, 02:32:20 PM

Quote from: rpietila on December 31, 2013, 08:49:15 AM

Quote from: wachtwoord on December 31, 2013, 07:32:06 AM

Quote from: Pruden on December 31, 2013, 07:09:23 AM

Taking just the data from the last two years is obvious cherry-picking (I have yet to see a less brain-damaged justification than "when exchanges started working properly"). How about taking all data and fitting it to a super-exponential curve? If fitness were better than the exponential trend presented in this thread the theory would be confirmed in my opinion (and the rate of growth would surely be lower than that "$100000 before autumn" nonsense).

I would like to see this too. The problem is that very early measuring points are likely to be really inaccurate.

+1. Howbout if somebody older than me would actually take the effort to research into the early days. I was not here then. I think a few hours of actual work (instead of posting) would take us far! Wink

In my opinion, only data from early 2011 onwards is necessary. My point is that any price trend model absolutely MUST include the 2011 bubble. Starting from its post-peak bottom is cherry-picking.

Yes, I agree that its cherry-picking if there can be found no good reason to start at this point (or later). So is there any good reason to exclude the 2011 bubble? I'm speculating that the first bubble was purely speculation only. Bitcoin where not actually used for trade (at any reasonable amount anyway) before and during this bubble, while after September 2011 trade started to become a more important part when Silk road started (http://historyofbitcoin.org). So basically after the 2011 bubble the market became more "sensible", and the growth after this point is no longer pure speculation, but also mirrors the use of bitcoin as a currency. Shoot me down now please..

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