Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend - page 4. (Read 118254 times)

I (would like) someone to start an E-Prime thread.

E-Prime FTW  

unrealistic?



It sure isn't incompatible with current facts.

By that definition, we'll only know wether it has been a realistic expectation after the fact.

You probably meant to say: "that 300k target is improbable from my point of view"?

I had no idea shaking this tree would wake up so many poop-throwing trolls!   

What's awesome about bitcointalk?  You can ignore posters.   

rpietile adds value to these boards.  He deduces outcomes based on history and numbers.

If others would like to contribute something other than opinions (i.e. price targets with dates) as rpietile has done (signing his name to his forecasts), I look forward to reading it.

Otherwise, STFU.

The 300k target is unrealistic expectation.

$1000 by 2014 it is

That was written in Oct-13. If you don't recall, $1k was reached in the following month. Reaching $10k by Apr-15 is nothing, and the only reason that I don't bet with people for the outcome, is that simple investing in bitcoins gives me much better odds 

Do you seriously believe that these targets are achievable? May 2014 is already passed by.

Respectfully request June update.

Bumping this awesome thread.

Hi rpietila,

I would suggest that drawing a trend line through the price is not the best way to do it. A better and simple model that's in the same spirit is that the difference in the logarithm of price is independent and identically distributed Normal. For details, see here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/non-spreadsheet-long-term-predictions-600802

Please let me know what you think.

Very nice. I'm a lot later to the party than you are, but I'm hoping to at least get my (modest) house paid off from following the trend line for one or two more cycles.

So are you hosting the big 10k bit coin bash? I need to reserve tux. 

Yes, I bought it with the profits afforded by the following of the trendline model last winter

If you are talking trend trading with proper risk management, then yes, it works very well on strong directional market.


Nice building. Is that your house?

Well I dunno about YOU (or anyone else here, either... people gotta make their own financial and investment decisions for themselves, of course, and taking ANY "internet advice" of any ONE person's opinion too seriously is never a good idea) but I'm personally not looking at this as "trading" but rather ONLY as possible long-term investment value in a brand-new, nascent technology or industry category.

Day to day?  It's clear that BTC prices (value?) can be all over the map.  Up down up down anything can happen wheee, just like a roller coaster amusement park ride, LOL. 

I've personally only ever paid in the $800-$400 range for each of the bitcoins that I've ever bought (starting around the time it hit $1000+ when I finally woke the hell up and started paying attention to it, LOL).  So that means technically I'm still in the hole, looking at a "losing investment" to date, even though dollar-cost averaging has helped a bit (my average price paid per BTC has gone from $711 when I started to now about $625).

Do I wish I was smart enough to recognize what's going on with all this when it was in the $10-100 range? 
Ummm... duh?  Stoopid question LOL

But does that mean anyone only getting into it NOW has totally missed the boat?
Maybe, but let's hope NOT, if SS's model is correct...?  There's still plenty of room to run!

But, no, it's not "trading"... it's long term committed investment.  At least for me.  And if it all goes bad and tanks to ZERO at least it was a pretty good shot to try and take: it looks like a good decision to me NOW, and even IF it fails to pay off, I won't be sorry for having TRIED.

Just my "two satoshi's" philosophy for today

LOL, I must be doing really bad then, having followed the method methodically in the last bubble..

Extrapolation doesn't work well on trading.

A quick way to poor house if anyone using this method to trade.

Update:
https://i.imgur.com/zQTRX1i.png
http://pastebin.com/qpsd3pwM



Pic in the first post is quite outdated. It would be nice if rpietila replaced it with new one.

Official prices for April and May updated. You can see that May average was higher than that of April, so the downtrend is over from this perspective also!

The trend is rising so fast that we are still -0.339 below the trend, with the record being set at -0.446 in 2014-5-19.

Here's the right thread for all you need to know about Stephen's (Slippery's) logistic model.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/stephen-reeds-million-dollar-logistic-model-366214

Amazing work. And great complement to this thread/model.