Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend - page 6. (Read 118200 times)

I had to delete 2 otherwise good posts that use the wrong trendline. Please post them to another thread. This thread uses price data which is approved by me (main difference is that my data is from 1/2009 and others from 7/2010)



Today the trendline is at 931 and we are -0.31 log units below the trend. During the whole consolidation from 4/2013 to 9/2013, the lowest below trend we ever visited was -0.341.

To reach that discount tomorrow, the daily volume weighted average would have to be 428.

I am a great fan of the theory that we will test 400 but not go lower, because of this.

Thank you. The correlation between 'new members of bitcointalk' and 'adoption growth' is a bit weaker? as even a moderator can squeeze out a lot of members, not alone saying if an other competitive forum jumps in?

Being a newbie holder, I feel adoption growth is reliable to hodl on, as it leads me to 'certainty,'  while a chart of monthly average price is still in the category of 'probability'.

With coins increasing,  I figure 'number of users' is more correlated with adoption growth than ' number of transactions".

Number of users of blockchain wallet is probably the closet data we can find representing adoption growth?

maybe here?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/stats-bitcointalk-vs-btc-price-bitcoin-bubble-alert-update-201013-314776
I need to do an update soon. The data is outdated...


indeed

Everyone I know calls me crazy when I tell them that I believe bitcoin will be >10000 USD in 12 months


edit: just t let you know. I will also do an extensive data analysis on the bitcoin price for my thesis. Will post the results on this forum

How can a growing number of users not be proof of growth of adoption?

Are those two charts really convincing? As another chart on blockchain.info seems have same structure, which is  "Total Bitcoins In Circulation ,A graph showing the historical total number of bitcoins which have been mined".
https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins

Of course the mined amount increases, which I read has no necessary correlation with growth of adoption.? Do we have other charts proving growth of adoption?

Yes, mostly correct. It is important to keep remembering that we humans are very bad at dealing with and understanding exponential change/growth. Ray Kurzweil has written about this extensively. Very tough to get our minds around this. That's why the charts and graphs tracking the data are so important, as our "gut" and "intuition" is not reliable in terms of "what is possible" or "likely"

Over the long/medium term price is just a reflection of growth in
a) Number of transactions
https://blockchain.info/pt/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
b) Number of users
https://blockchain.info/pt/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

As long as the exponential growth of adoption continues, so will the price.

It seems like we are entering a period where Bitcoin will rise and fall but stay within a set range ($500-$600).  As much as I'd love to buy in 100% in the exponential increases in the future...my skeptical side has a tough time seeing it climb so dramatically.  I'm trying to think of events that could propel it 2,5,10x higher within the next 1-2 years.  Would BTC adoption from online merchants be the ticket?  Or perhaps financial or institutionalized banking support?

Trendline from this thread, it uses period since MtGox birth  - this thread

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+^+%28+0.006044++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.82447+%29

Middle of these two trends is approx where we are now, maybe 20-30$ below.

Cash and castles   

Just a general information - ALL of what is needed for producing any USD/BTC price charts for the duration of the exchange prices (7/2010-) can be found in Bitcoincharts. Just select custom chart, 'Load raw data', paste into Excel and go.

But do not post it here under this thread because this one is only for Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend.

I agree with this underlying point. Trend charts are nice, and can often tell a story, but can often be largely useless in terms of prediction.

On net, Bitcoin's "price" is an exchange rate. Therefore, I also agree that the $US changing money supply will impact Bitcoin price changes in US$. Think about it this way, if there are more dollars floating around (or being printed), the value of a static good should increase (via inflation). The same holds true for Bitcoin, perhaps even more so, since some are using it as a hedge against inflation. In other words, demand will increase when the Fed declares QE-to-infinity part II. This was true towards the end of of 2013 when Bitcoin hit new highs while Bernanke reneged on promises to start cutting monthly QE.... the price for Bitcoin jumped in response. Now, in 2014, since Yellen took over they have begun monthly cutting to QE (despite a recent "pause), Bitcoin price is relatively lower. Don't get me wrong, other elements (Mt. Gox, etc) certainly play a huge role in fluctuations, but some of these elements are unpredictable. At the very least, domestic currency elements should be included in a Bitcoin price model.

If someone posts the monthly Bitcoin data history here (up-to-date). I would be happy to create a quick model, incorporating M1 or M2.

I think the charts, albeit pretty, are not so much useful to understand the future trends of bitcoin.
This chart, in my opinion, just suppose there is no changing in bitcoin vs the US$ and the price depend, heavily, just on adoption and use.

It is not so.
The inflation rate of bitcoin M0 and US$ change with time and the differential is gone from negative (against bitcoin) to positive (for bitcoin) in the years.
The differential in the inflation rate is what cause bitcoin to have a gravitational pull stronger than any other fiat currency, and is a big cause of the increase of exchange rate, adoption rate (for practical mundane reasons) and so on.

It would be pretty useful if someone could make a chart comparing the inflation rate in bitcoin with the inflation rate of USD e € and the differential.
Lower the inflation rate, at this point, faster bitcoin will suck up value from other fiats.

I don't know of it, but maybe in Tallinn.

When I look at your trendline, it seems that we are a little bit over the trendline, but who knows. Your mansion is really nice, live also in Virumaa, but it takes a lot of investment with restauration it.

Hallo Risto,
What do you think about the price now, have some fiat in stamp, but have not yet decided to buy, or wait.... difficult to decide...

That is sweet! Thanks for that!

Risto, could you put this link in the OP? That would be very helpful.

I figured it out!

Here is a one-click URL to give you today's trendline number using WolframAlpha:
 
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10+%5E+%28+%28+3073%2F1000000+%29+*+%28+number+of+days+since+jan+3%2C+2009%2F+days+%29+-+2.909514+%29


*edit: fixed URL

The trend point can be calculated online using the wolframalpha computational search engine in two steps:

first, get the number of days since 2009-1-3:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=number+of+days+since+2009-01-03
This URL will work for any "today"

next, using that number (today it was 1880), replace it in the following search term:

**remember to replace the 1880 number with today's correct number and run the search again.

The result is today's trendline price in USD.


Note: if someone can figure out how to encapsulate the results of the first search URL directly into the second, then this could be a single bookmark-able URL to return today's trendline value.

edit* the forum software was butchering my second URL. I had to embed it into a code tag to get it to show up properly. You will have to copy and paste it into a new browser window to use it. Again, anyone know a fix for that problem?