Considering the Losail Qatar circuit last year was dominated by the Ducati team, it makes me also believe that Bagnaia will win the series opener this season because if we look at the last few times Bagnaia has developed much better and the factory Ducati team has also made some improvements to the bike this season, so it is very possible for Bagnaia to be able to reach the first position if he is able to do the race perfectly.
What you say may be true too, but if you look at its history for the past seven years, the Yamaha factory is still very dominant in Losail Qatar in terms of wins with a large number of 9 wins even 10 if you count the Doha Qatar race last year too. While Ducati has only 5 wins there and Honda 3 wins, and I have very accurate evidence for you to look at at this time so that you don't get wrong in giving predictions for this year.
Since it was first held in 2004, Yamaha has become the team that has conquered the Losail Circuit the most. Here is the list of winners.
2022
2021 Maverick Viñales Yamaha
2020 didn't open in the Qatar series
2019 Andrea Dovizioso Ducati
2018 Andrea Dovizioso Ducati
2017 Maverick Viñales Yamaha
2016 Jorge Lorenzo Yamaha
2015 Valentino Rossi Yamaha
2014 Marc Márquez Honda
2013 Jorge Lorenzo Yamaha
2012 Jorge Lorenzo Yamaha
2011 Casey Stoner Honda
2010 Valentino Rossi Yamaha
2009 Casey Stoner Ducati
2008 Casey Stoner Ducati
2007 Casey Stoner Ducati
2006 Valentino Rossi Yamaha
2005 Valentino Rossi Yamaha
2004 Gibernau Sete Honda
Source: https://www.ligaolahraga.com/motogp/daftar-pemenang-motogp-qatar-sejak-2004-yamaha-paling-sering-menang