NFL Sportsbet.io discussion & predications thread rev - page 24.

ralle14

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Quote from: rdbase on October 12, 2023, 06:32:55 AM

Doesn't anybody else think Kansas City odds are deceiving or are the Denver Broncos just that bad to have them heavy underdogs priced at 5.54x?
Chiefs at 1.17x is even a bet to make because the profit margin is a sliver.
Maybe a betbuilder or even a high odds spreadline is worth it but not the ML on the Chiefs.

Here are the markets so you can make your selections and pick something resembling a valuable play:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-v-denver-broncos-651c6b52f2779c0001b80a36

I somehow think the same after the Chiefs looked shaky in their last two matches, but I don't see them being bad enough to lose against one of the worst teams like the Broncos.

The spread on the Chiefs felt too much for me and after watching the Jets game, i'd better buy some points to avoid stressing out on the spread, so I whipped up a bet builder and took the -3.5 spread together with the under 51.5 @2.10 (odds boost). I imagine the scoreline for this game would look similar to the Bears game and pray that the Chiefs' defense would hold the Broncos to maybe a couple of TD or field goals.

wheelz1200

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Quote from: rdbase on October 12, 2023, 06:32:55 AM

Doesn't anybody else think Kansas City odds are deceiving or are the Denver Broncos just that bad to have them heavy underdogs priced at 5.54x?
Chiefs at 1.17x is even a bet to make because the profit margin is a sliver.
Maybe a betbuilder or even a high odds spreadline is worth it but not the ML on the Chiefs.

Here are the markets so you can make your selections and pick something resembling a valuable play:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-v-denver-broncos-651c6b52f2779c0001b80a36

I hate betting those lower odds, ypu win barely anything and super exposed to an upset. Denver is terrible but any given Sunday anyone can win its the nfl. Those odds seem about right not sure how the books can offer more money on kc straight up this game should be over by the third quarter.

rdbase

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Doesn't anybody else think Kansas City odds are deceiving or are the Denver Broncos just that bad to have them heavy underdogs priced at 5.54x?
Chiefs at 1.17x is even a bet to make because the profit margin is a sliver.
Maybe a betbuilder or even a high odds spreadline is worth it but not the ML on the Chiefs.

Here are the markets so you can make your selections and pick something resembling a valuable play:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-v-denver-broncos-651c6b52f2779c0001b80a36

ralle14

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Quote from: morvillz7z on October 10, 2023, 10:05:22 AM

I switched off the stream right after Love's first interception and haven't watched rest of the game, knew it was over for me. Almost 2 quarters played and you have your main guy with just one target, you don't even look in his direction, c'mon now...I see Love had two more INTs in the second half to ruin your ticket as well, that gotta be annoying.

It looked promising after the first quarter and then Love became a turnover machine like Dak against the 49ers. When the Raiders missed the field goal in the fourth quarter, I got my hopes up for nothing as Love gave the ball away one last time to end the game in the worst way possible. Tongue

Both our tickets got ruined. I was hoping your bet would at least hit because I saw many bettors are on the Doubs props. And for a second, I thought he was sitting out when he didn't get enough opportunities.

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Quote from: ralle14 on October 09, 2023, 07:01:55 PM

Quote from: morvillz7z on October 09, 2023, 04:34:20 PM

This is what i'm on today, expect both Josh Jacobs and Romeo Doubs to have solid outputs. Raiders have their oline ranked top 5 in pass block win rate on the season and Jacobs is coming off 8 receptions 81 rec yards game. Doubs has been the guy for Green Bay so far, leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards...I would've added DaVante Adams to my slip as i like the "revenge game" angle but he hasn't practiced all week nursing an injury, which is kinda risky.

That's a solid prop play. Doubs and Jacobs are 3-1 on both the over props and should likely hit for the fourth time. BOL

I'm only going for a small play on the Packers +2.5 because a couple of matches by the Packers came down to a single point. If the Raiders can't stop themselves from turning the ball over, then the Packers might not have problems covering the spread, even if they're coming from behind

I switched off the stream right after Love's first interception and haven't watched rest of the game, knew it was over for me. Almost 2 quarters played and you have your main guy with just one target, you don't even look in his direction, c'mon now...I see Love had two more INTs in the second half to ruin your ticket as well, that gotta be annoying.

rdbase

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Raiders beat the Packers unconvincingly with a 17-13 score to what many would say was a very slow game.
Several interceptions by Love and even one made by Jimmy G had it a very low scoring game.
I had the over 43.5 and thought it was an easy one to hit with both quarterbacks having a high percentage within the 20 yard line.
That is football.
Better to put more trust of scoring touchdowns on the teams with better records such as the 49ers and Eagles.

ralle14

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Quote from: morvillz7z on October 09, 2023, 04:34:20 PM

This is what i'm on today, expect both Josh Jacobs and Romeo Doubs to have solid outputs. Raiders have their oline ranked top 5 in pass block win rate on the season and Jacobs is coming off 8 receptions 81 rec yards game. Doubs has been the guy for Green Bay so far, leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards...I would've added DaVante Adams to my slip as i like the "revenge game" angle but he hasn't practiced all week nursing an injury, which is kinda risky.

That's a solid prop play. Doubs and Jacobs are 3-1 on both the over props and should likely hit for the fourth time. BOL

I'm only going for a small play on the Packers +2.5 because a couple of matches by the Packers came down to a single point. If the Raiders can't stop themselves from turning the ball over, then the Packers might not have problems covering the spread, even if they're coming from behind.

rdbase

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Funny how the Green Bay Packers were the favorites just a few hours earlier but now it is the Las Vegas Raiders. They flip flopped the odds.
Might be due to the Packers running back Aaron Jones having hamstring injury so won't be available to play tonight.
I was going with the Raiders -2.5 with the over anyways. Just can't go against Jimmy G at home turf.
Jordan Love still has alot to accomplish first going against the veteran Garoppolo and the Raiders offense.

morvillz7z

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This is what i'm on today, expect both Josh Jacobs and Romeo Doubs to have solid outputs. Raiders have their oline ranked top 5 in pass block win rate on the season and Jacobs is coming off 8 receptions 81 rec yards game. Doubs has been the guy for Green Bay so far, leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards...I would've added Davante Adams to my slip as i like the "revenge game" angle but he hasn't practiced all week nursing an injury, which is kinda risky.

ralle14

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Quote from: rdbase on October 07, 2023, 08:53:24 PM

Big win for the Bears and they were inspired to do it for their fellow fallen solider Dick Butkus who was a well known football player for Chicago.

So this weekend we have another early match in London with Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills.

Yup, and their close loss last week against the Broncos fired them up. The Commanders during that match didn't look like the same team that pressured the Eagles.

I'm glad I forgot about the early London match because I would've bet on the Bills like most bettors did and started my day with a loss. Tongue

Earlier, almost half of the matches ended up in the way of the underdogs, and the impressive one was probably the Saints holding off the Patriots to zero points. For the MNF, i'm leaning on the plus points for the Packers and I don't buy the home advantage when this looks similar to the Steelers match a couple of weeks ago.

rdbase

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Big win for the Bears and they were inspired to do it for their fellow fallen solider Dick Butkus who was a well known football player for Chicago.

So this weekend we have another early match in London with Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills.
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/buffalo-bills-v-jacksonville-jaguars-645ba8ea76e9d5391c4755cc

Rest of the matches after this one are listed here:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/american-football/matches/today

ralle14

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We also have a MOTD special(link is in the image) for this match, and I immediately hopped on the Commanders' special because they were close to beating the Eagles last week.

Quote from: rdbase on October 05, 2023, 05:57:05 PM

TNF is happening in less than and hour and a half and everyone is saying there is a lock on this match up tonight!

It's scary to say they're a lock, but I agree they should win against the Bears.

There's a bit of movement on the spread (from 6.5 to 5.5) and maybe it's a hint that the public or the sharps are going ham on the Bears.

rdbase

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TNF is happening in less than and hour and a half and everyone is saying there is a lock on this match up tonight!

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/washington-football-team-v-chicago-bears-65133e73f2779c0001de9c48

This is going by the name of the worst game all year with the Chicago Bears team being in massive disarray from the defense all the way to the offense. This is why they are 0-4 on the season so far.
Then we have a struggling Washington Commanders squad which to me didn't look too bad in the last game I watched them play.
Sam Howell could toss them into the endzone, so they have hope to salvage something still being 2-2 still early on in the season.

But the lines all towards a successful Commanders win being 1.39x odds last I checked.

ralle14

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Quote from: rdbase on October 02, 2023, 08:12:53 PM

With watching the first quarter it was just a sea of yellow from all the penalties being given out by the referees.
There were no points put up on the scoreboard yet while I tuned into the game, but Seattle were at their own 30 yard line and was 1st and 20 then another flag thrown during the play and set back to 1st and 25.
So this seems to be a reoccurring theme for this Monday night match and possibly make it a low scoring one if more flags get thrown throughout the rest of the game.
Geno Smith was the favored quarterback to take the Seahawks on to victory against a poorly performing Daniel Jones and Giants team.
If I did have a bet on this match up tonight, I would of picked the exactly same as you did backing the Seahawks and probably put it as a combo bet with the points spread just to make it a bit more appealing to me.

Yup, the first half was so scrappy from both sides there is always a flag being thrown on every play and the Giants' QB was the real MVP of this match. Whenever they start to gain some yardage and close in on the red zone they somehow find a way to give it back to the Seahawks. Cheesy

I thought my Seahawks bet was in trouble when Geno Smith was having issues during the second quarter but the Giants still can't get their shit together.

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Quote from: ralle14 on October 02, 2023, 07:08:07 PM

We get another fishy odds, but i'll ride with the Seahawks @1.76 (price boost). The Giants look like one of the weakest teams after facing a couple of good teams, while the Seahawks are better on paper and want to extend their win streak to three. The bookies are testing the Giants here since this is the second time they'll face a team (the first was against the Cardinals) they can potentially beat.

With watching the first quarter it was just a sea of yellow from all the penalties being given out by the referees.
There were no points put up on the scoreboard yet while I tuned into the game, but Seattle were at their own 30 yard line and was 1st and 20 then another flag thrown during the play and set back to 1st and 25.
So this seems to be a reoccurring theme for this Monday night match and possibly make it a low scoring one if more flags get thrown throughout the rest of the game.
Geno Smith was the favored quarterback to take the Seahawks on to victory against a poorly performing Daniel Jones and Giants team.
If I did have a bet on this match up tonight, I would of picked the exactly same as you did backing the Seahawks and probably put it as a combo bet with the points spread just to make it a bit more appealing to me.

ralle14

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We get another fishy odds, but i'll ride with the Seahawks @1.76 (price boost). The Giants look like one of the weakest teams after facing a couple of good teams, while the Seahawks are better on paper and want to extend their win streak to three. The bookies are testing the Giants here since this is the second time they'll face a team (the first was against the Cardinals) they can potentially beat.

Quote from: rdbase on October 02, 2023, 05:47:14 AM

Yes, it ended 23-20 for the Chiefs which they didn't deserve to win. Mahomes had 2 interceptions from what I witnessed while watching the game and Kelce didn't get going in this one with his usual performance.
Not the same Chiefs team who won the Super Bowl last season that's for sure against a struggling and recovering offensive line-up including Zach Wilson.
Who hasn't got into the leading role of being the starting QB yet.

I agree the Chiefs performed like they were the underdogs in this matchup and I regret not buying a few extra points for my under as I wasn't expecting a lackluster second half from these two teams.

Quote from: acroman08 on October 02, 2023, 08:08:33 AM

I am really curious, near the end of the 4th quarter of the match, why did Patrick Mahomes stop near the goal instead of going for the Touchdown? I've read some comments on YouTube that it was to waste time and guarantee their win and others said that the Chiefs would still win if Patrick Mahomes went for the Touchdown.

Crazy things can happen even if there's only a minute and a half left and with their defense performing inconsistently, there's a possibility of it going to OT if they went for a TD.

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Quote from: acroman08 on October 02, 2023, 08:08:33 AM

I just started watching American Football(because of Jason Kelce, the dude is a wholesome guy) and watched the Jets vs. Chiefs match. I am really curious, near the end of the 4th quarter of the match, why did Patrick Mahomes stop near the goal instead of going for the Touchdown? I've read some comments on YouTube that it was to waste time and guarantee their win and others said that the Chiefs would still win if Patrick Mahomes went for the Touchdown.

sorry if this is a dumb question or if it is off-topic, I am still very new to American football.

Hey, thats absolutely right!

Its to waste time i.e. run out the clock

This is done when the leading team has possession and there is less then 2 mins left AND the opposing team has no time outs,

Since if they kneel, the clock keeps running and they get 40 seconds for the next play, that way they can kill 120 seconds easily in 3 plays (again,assuming no timeout from other team)

While it is right that they were in a really good spot to score a touchdown, but things like fumble/interceptions happen and no team risks that when the win is guaranteed if they just dont put the ball in play.

acroman08

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I just started watching American Football(because of Jason Kelce, the dude is a wholesome guy) and watched the Jets vs. Chiefs match. I am really curious, near the end of the 4th quarter of the match, why did Patrick Mahomes stop near the goal instead of going for the Touchdown? I've read some comments on YouTube that it was to waste time and guarantee their win and others said that the Chiefs would still win if Patrick Mahomes went for the Touchdown.

sorry if this is a dumb question or if it is off-topic, I am still very new to American football.

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Quote from: ralle14 on October 01, 2023, 07:03:52 PM

Quote from: morvillz7z on October 01, 2023, 04:10:58 PM

I was one selection off of a big win today, one Justin Fields rushing TD off $1k+ on 500+ odds parlay.

That is brutal, but it's still impressive to see every leg hitting, including the other ATTD props. I guess they didn't want to switch things up when the passing game kept working for them.

I'm thinking of buying some points for the Chiefs match but I decided to scrap that play and just go for the under 41, when the under trend remains hot. I'd imagine this match to be similar to the Jags vs. Chiefs a couple of weeks ago, where we won't see much scoring since the Jets still have a top-tier defense.

Edit: My under is a guaranteed loss at this point after the Chiefs scored way too fast and the Jets can't get a stop. Tongue

Yes, it ended 23-20 for the Chiefs which they didn't deserve to win. Mahomes had 2 interceptions from what I witnessed while watching the game and Kelce didn't get going in this one with his usual performance.
Not the same Chiefs team who won the Super Bowl last season that's for sure against a struggling and recovering offensive line-up including Zach Wilson.
Who hasn't got into the leading role of being the starting QB yet.

Those are huge shoes to fill and Aaron Rodgers was at the game on the sidelines.
They say he will be going in later this week to evaluate the surgery done to his injured leg. He wants to get into the bye week of the season, but that is being optimistic.

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Quote from: morvillz7z on October 01, 2023, 04:10:58 PM

I was one selection off of a big win today, one Justin Fields rushing TD off $1k+ on 500+ odds parlay.

That is brutal, but it's still impressive to see every leg hitting, including the other ATTD props. I guess they didn't want to switch things up when the passing game kept working for them.

I'm thinking of buying some points for the Chiefs match but I decided to scrap that play and just go for the under 41, when the under trend remains hot. I'd imagine this match to be similar to the Jags vs. Chiefs a couple of weeks ago, where we won't see much scoring since the Jets still have a top-tier defense.

Edit: My under is a guaranteed loss at this point after the Chiefs scored way too fast and the Jets can't get a stop. Tongue

Topic: NFL Sportsbet.io discussion & predications thread rev - page 24. (Read 10672 times)