nrd525 Market Tracker - page 28. | Bitcointalksearch.org

nrd525

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Activity: 1868

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Quote from: TheQuin on December 12, 2017, 02:51:04 AM

Quote from: nrd525 on December 11, 2017, 03:38:35 PM

Looks like CBOE volume is pretty low. 4000 bitcoin futures in the past day (whereas Bitfinex is around 80,000)
http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

People are saying that the CME will be bigger.

The CBoE mainly trade in options, the futures exchange is relatively new and small. I trade with one of the largest retail brokers and FCMs and they haven't made the contract available to trade. The CME, on the other hand, is the largest futures exchange in the world and I expect all FCMs to make it available.

Edit: I just had a check around and Interactive Brokers are the only broker listed by CBoE as supporting it, so it is not really surprising that the volume is quite low.

So do you think we'll see 10 times more volume? Or even 100?

...

Recently we've been in a cycle of Bitcoin increasing on one day, and then alt-coins increasing on the other day. Today is an alt-coin day with ETH up 25%, Bitcoin Cash up 10%, Litecoin up 65%, and many others that are up 10% or more.

TheQuin

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Freebitco.in Support https://bit.ly/2I9BVS2

Quote from: nrd525 on December 11, 2017, 03:38:35 PM

Looks like CBOE volume is pretty low. 4000 bitcoin futures in the past day (whereas Bitfinex is around 80,000)
http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

People are saying that the CME will be bigger.

The CBoE mainly trade in options, the futures exchange is relatively new and small. I trade with one of the largest retail brokers and FCMs and they haven't made the contract available to trade. The CME, on the other hand, is the largest futures exchange in the world and I expect all FCMs to make it available.

Edit: I just had a check around and Interactive Brokers are the only broker listed by CBoE as supporting it, so it is not really surprising that the volume is quite low.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

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I talked to a Bitcoin tax attorney for 10 minutes today and they did not know whether you could use average cost method for Bitcoin.

Unfortunately as a relatively small client, it would probably cost me more money to hire tax attorneys to reseach this question than I would save. So I want to find someone who has already looked into this.

Does anyone know?

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

Looks like CBOE volume is pretty low. 4000 bitcoin futures in the past day (whereas Bitfinex is around 80,000)
http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

People are saying that the CME will be bigger.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

So Crypto Kitties is a pyramid scheme that relies upon new investors, right? A starting group of cats breeds more cats leading to exponential growth. The only thing to do is to breed the cats, buy/sell, and look at them (or make Youtube videos ha!).

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

I'm accepting donations =)

Bitcoin
1MgKRdbRUsL3rhmd2urNgMfTJdTaQAX3th

ETH
0xc79f53731e61c58019e4a1d3a1e031bf682d0bea

komjhq

full member

Activity: 588

Merit: 100

Quote from: nrd525 on December 09, 2017, 02:20:10 PM

I used LTC in the past to move money. Though I only held it for an hour or less as the transaction time is faster. Though if too many people do it, the hot wallets will run out which happenned to me at least once.

More signs of the bubble - a relative stranger is donating ETH to me because I inspired him to get involved in April with a couple emails. My first crypto donation. Hmm, are other people interested? I could setup an address =)

We're at 14k. If 11k doesn't hold, we could be in for a bear market. I still expect one last pump going into Dec 18.

Korea premium is only $300 over GDAX.

there are a lot of forecasts for December. What worries me most is that some users have voiced the possibility or even the possibility of several Bitcoin forks by the end of the year. How this will affect the price, do not predict.

nrd525

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Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

http://ir.cboe.com/press-releases/2017/12-04-2017

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

I used LTC in the past to move money. Though I only held it for an hour or less as the transaction time is faster. Though if too many people do it, the hot wallets will run out which happenned to me at least once.

More signs of the bubble - a relative stranger is donating ETH to me because I inspired him to get involved in April with a couple emails. My first crypto donation. Hmm, are other people interested? I could setup an address =)

We're at 14k. If 11k doesn't hold, we could be in for a bear market. I still expect one last pump going into Dec 18.

Korea premium is only $300 over GDAX.

Samarkand

sr. member

Activity: 658

Merit: 282

Quote from: nrd525 on December 08, 2017, 11:22:05 PM

...
Litecoin ATH up 49% in the past 24 hours.
...

There are rumours that this is mainly caused by the huge transaction backlog of the BTC blockchain.
People, who wanted to sell their coins during the recent 2k dip often used LTC or other altcoins to transact in
order to get their coins to an exchange faster (many possible out of fear, because they thought the bubble might
pop completely).

This development was probably exacerbated by the fact that Bitfinex had problems to keep up with the withdrawal
demand and LTC was one of the currencies where withdrawals were still working flawlessly.

The BFX reddit was/is full of people complaining about their missing BTC and ETH withdrawals:
https://www.reddit.com/r/bitfinex/

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

According to the IRS instructions for F8949, I'm pretty sure that one cannot use the "average cost" method for Bitcoin capital gains.

See page 5.
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i8949.pdf

It looks like you can only use that method if you are dealing with mutual funds or some kind of dividend reinvestment. As such, I think I need to refile my back taxes. Will have to pay more for past years, but end up ahead overall (after 2017) as I can use FIFO and qualify for the long term capital gains rate. Or I might try to figure out how to use "specific lots".

I'm doing a 10 minute phone consult with bitcoin tax accountant in CA on Monday. I also downloaded an Ebook from Amazon on bitcoin/crypto and taxes - a decent read, though it didn't cover my question.

I'm tempted to sell 2 BTC if we get up to 20k territory. Of course timing the top is almost impossible.

Litecoin ATH up 49% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin dominance around 62%.
https://www.livecoinwatch.com - an alternative to the bitconnect ponzi supporting "coinmarketplace.com" scam site.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

I'm guessing the margin will be even higher than Bitfinex's 3.3x. Unless the firms are willing to take big risks or have a way of getting money from their customers after the fact. We could easily have a 50% crash.

Andreas might have received 102 bitcoins, possibly more. It's the wealth effect of the bubble. People have more money than they can figure out how to spend or invest. I know I do.
http://fortune.com/2017/12/08/bitcoin-prices-anton-antonopoulos-rich/

By contrast, the "upgrade bitcointalk" donation fund had a lot more bitcoins (several thousand?) but was created when they were worth single digits. I believe this Andreas donation is of epic proportions for both bitcoin and non-bitcoin (though some crowd sourced donations for medical problems may have matched it).

Samarkand

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Activity: 658

Merit: 282

Quote from: TheQuin on December 08, 2017, 05:29:04 AM

...

Maybe high compared to other futures but when I say leverage will be much higher compared to what we have now that infers that the margin requirement is much lower.

leverage = contract value / margin requirement

Unlike crypto exchanges, these are set as fixed dollar amounts per contract. The exchange will set the overnight maintenance level and brokers set the day trading levels. The variation from broker to broker can be quite large and I haven't seen any announcements yet. I am expecting they will be quite conservative to start and then come down when they have more data for risk assessment. But in any case, they will be significantly higher than currently available. For example, 3.3x on Bitfinex compared to E-Mini S&P 500 currently ~330x with my broker.

Now I understand your argument better.

However, you are cherry picking here when you point out Bitfinex with 3.3x leverage. Bitmex
has been offering BTC futures (even a perpetual swap without an expiry date) for a long time and offers up to 100x leverage.

The difference now is that CBOE and CME are obviously operating at another level than Bitmex. Nevertheless, I still expect that the trading volume will not reach
the expectations that people currently have. In the long-term the introduction of these futures should be great, because as you already
pointed out this is only the prelude for other financial products related to BTC (e.g. an ETF).

TheQuin

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Quote from: Samarkand on December 08, 2017, 05:10:29 AM

Quote from: TheQuin on December 08, 2017, 01:46:08 AM

...
Quite possible as the leverage will be much higher.

...

The margin requirements will be pretty high as well.

Maybe high compared to other futures but when I say leverage will be much higher compared to what we have now that infers that the margin requirement is much lower.

leverage = contract value / margin requirement

Unlike crypto exchanges, these are set as fixed dollar amounts per contract. The exchange will set the overnight maintenance level and brokers set the day trading levels. The variation from broker to broker can be quite large and I haven't seen any announcements yet. I am expecting they will be quite conservative to start and then come down when they have more data for risk assessment. But in any case, they will be significantly higher than currently available. For example, 3.3x on Bitfinex compared to E-Mini S&P 500 currently ~330x with my broker.

Samarkand

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Activity: 658

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Quote from: nrd525 on December 07, 2017, 04:04:20 PM

... Though I am expecting the futures to be underused compared to the hype. ...

You could theoretically use the experiences of LedgerX as an indicator.

Quote from: TheQuin on December 08, 2017, 01:46:08 AM

...
Quite possible as the leverage will be much higher.

...

The margin requirements will be pretty high as well.

Quote from: nrd525 on December 07, 2017, 04:38:33 PM

...

-50 btc in donations to Andreas after Roger Ver shames him for being "poor"

Why do you see this as a "bubble indicator"? To me this just looks like a generous donation from a BTC whale
to a guy, who has done a lot to promote Bitcoin (lectures, interviews, Youtube videos, at least 2 books...).

TheQuin

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Quote from: nrd525 on December 07, 2017, 01:32:52 PM

GDAX makes a run at 20k - hitting 19697. Was the exchange actually working at the time though?

I did see reports that the API was unavailable for 30 minutes during the peak. Also that the exchange was heavily overloaded and difficult to use for much of the day. Bitfinex was under heavy DDoS attack all day and difficult to use for long periods as well.

Quote from: nrd525 on December 07, 2017, 04:04:20 PM

There is a rumor that whales are buying with plans of dumping when futures are open. While I normally ignore rumors, this one makes some sense. The futures won't be backed by actual bitcoins (right?),

Technically correct but as futures contracts are deliverable many market participants will be using them to hedge actual Bitcoin positions.

Quote from: nrd525 on December 07, 2017, 04:04:20 PM

so you could possibly make more money on the futures than you lose from selling your bitcoins.

Quite possible as the leverage will be much higher.

Quote from: nrd525 on December 07, 2017, 04:04:20 PM

Though I am expecting the futures to be underused compared to the hype.

I would agree there but it is an unknown and I'll be watching with interest.

Quote from: nrd525 on December 07, 2017, 04:04:20 PM

I think we we already have most of the wall street money - and most of the remaining players are going to need a lot of convincing (and probably more stability) to get in. And if the futures lack volume this plan won't work. Though it is likely to dump/crash for other reasons.

Most of the Wall Street money is excluded at the moment. Hedge funds can play but major investment funds, pension funds etc. can't play. Futures don't change that in themselves but are the first step to making Bitcoin a legitimate investment. I would expect ETFs and other investment vehicles to be launched, this will be a gradual process.

Quote from: nrd525 on December 07, 2017, 01:32:52 PM

For instance, three family members who I talk to have been saying I should "sell" forever. They still say "sell". They aren't going to buy an asset that increased by 20x in the past year. Of course they are more risk adverse.

It looks like you have a great contrarian indicator there, you know what to do when they buy.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

More signs of the bubble top.
-Korea has a $3000 premium or almost 20%. Earlier this year we had China with a 10% premium for a while, but 20% premiums are rare.

-Crypto kitties (if you want to play with cats get a cat, or the new Sims 4 expansion) are also very bubbly. Though they are in Ether which hasn't been doing so well.

-Almost all the altcoins are down in USD, and even more so in BTC.

-50 btc in donations to Andreas after Roger Ver shames him for being "poor"

Syke

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Yup, that sounds plausible. In a day or two it might be a good time to lock in a small portion of profit.

nrd525

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Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

There is a rumor that whales are buying with plans of dumping when futures are open. While I normally ignore rumors, this one makes some sense. The futures won't be backed by actual bitcoins (right?), so you could possibly make more money on the futures than you lose from selling your bitcoins. Though I am expecting the futures to be underused compared to the hype. I think we we already have most of the wall street money - and most of the remaining players are going to need a lot of convincing (and probably more stability) to get in. And if the futures lack volume this plan won't work. Though it is likely to dump/crash for other reasons.

For instance, three family members who I talk to have been saying I should "sell" forever. They still say "sell". They aren't going to buy an asset that increased by 20x in the past year. Of course they are more risk adverse.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

GDAX makes a run at 20k - hitting 19697. Was the exchange actually working at the time though? They often have overload issues. By contrast, BFX was only up to 15700 - so that seems very weird. We have had flash crashes, but flash spikes are more unusual - especially as GDAX has very limited shorting.

I was skim reading the Instructions for IRS 8949 form - and they have a list of rules under which you can use the average cost method. I don't think my holdings of bitcoins meet these rules.

On the other hand, I was researching the Obamacare subsidy and its massive dropoff at around 400% the poverty line you lose your entire remaining subsidy if you earn just $1 more than 400% the poverty line. So I probably want to stay under that as I don't want to lose 2k-3k in subsidy.

Yesterday I sent a couple BTC to GDAX to sell in case things get super bubbly. I sold 0.1 BTC so far at around $14300.

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