Pages:
Author

Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 28. (Read 83088 times)

hero member
Activity: 2576
Merit: 883
Freebitco.in Support https://bit.ly/2I9BVS2
December 13, 2017, 02:10:38 AM
So do you think we'll see 10 times more volume?  Or even 100?

It's very difficult to predict. I don't think initially it will be a big bang, it will probably start off quite light and build up over time. Looking around I cannot see many brokers announcements which makes me think they are taking a cautious approach and want to see how it trades for a while to make proper risk assessments. After all, if they set the day trade margin too low then it is the FCM that is on the hook to pay the exchange if the trader's account is negative.

Having said that I'm sure it will be higher than CBoE volumes. When you look at it bear in mind that the contract is 5x larger. That is a CBoE contract is for 1 BTC and a CME contract will be for 5 BTC so even if it trades at roughly the same volume of ~5,000 contracts a day that is actually 25,000 BTC.
legendary
Activity: 1870
Merit: 1023
December 12, 2017, 02:23:55 PM
Looks like CBOE volume is pretty low.  4000 bitcoin futures in the past day (whereas Bitfinex is around 80,000)
http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

People are saying that the CME will be bigger.

The CBoE mainly trade in options, the futures exchange is relatively new and small. I trade with one of the largest retail brokers and FCMs and they haven't made the contract available to trade. The CME, on the other hand, is the largest futures exchange in the world and I expect all FCMs to make it available.

Edit: I just had a check around and Interactive Brokers are the only broker listed by CBoE as supporting it, so it is not really surprising that the volume is quite low.


So do you think we'll see 10 times more volume?  Or even 100?

...

Recently we've been in a cycle of Bitcoin increasing on one day, and then alt-coins increasing on the other day.  Today is an alt-coin day with ETH up 25%, Bitcoin Cash up 10%, Litecoin up 65%, and many others that are up 10% or more.
hero member
Activity: 2576
Merit: 883
Freebitco.in Support https://bit.ly/2I9BVS2
December 12, 2017, 02:51:04 AM
Looks like CBOE volume is pretty low.  4000 bitcoin futures in the past day (whereas Bitfinex is around 80,000)
http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

People are saying that the CME will be bigger.

The CBoE mainly trade in options, the futures exchange is relatively new and small. I trade with one of the largest retail brokers and FCMs and they haven't made the contract available to trade. The CME, on the other hand, is the largest futures exchange in the world and I expect all FCMs to make it available.

Edit: I just had a check around and Interactive Brokers are the only broker listed by CBoE as supporting it, so it is not really surprising that the volume is quite low.
legendary
Activity: 1870
Merit: 1023
December 11, 2017, 08:00:34 PM
I talked to a Bitcoin tax attorney for 10 minutes today and they did not know whether you could use average cost method for Bitcoin.

Unfortunately as a relatively small client, it would probably cost me more money to hire tax attorneys to reseach this question than I would save.  So I want to find someone who has already looked into this.

Does anyone know?
legendary
Activity: 1870
Merit: 1023
December 11, 2017, 03:38:35 PM
Looks like CBOE volume is pretty low.  4000 bitcoin futures in the past day (whereas Bitfinex is around 80,000)
http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

People are saying that the CME will be bigger.
legendary
Activity: 1870
Merit: 1023
December 11, 2017, 02:48:43 PM
So Crypto Kitties is a pyramid scheme that relies upon new investors, right?  A starting group of cats breeds more cats leading to exponential growth.  The only thing to do is to breed the cats, buy/sell, and look at them (or make Youtube videos ha!).



legendary
Activity: 1870
Merit: 1023
December 10, 2017, 09:36:36 PM
I'm accepting donations =)

Bitcoin
1MgKRdbRUsL3rhmd2urNgMfTJdTaQAX3th

ETH
0xc79f53731e61c58019e4a1d3a1e031bf682d0bea

full member
Activity: 588
Merit: 100
December 10, 2017, 03:14:10 AM
I used LTC in the past to move money.  Though I only held it for an hour or less as the transaction time is faster.  Though if too many people do it, the hot wallets will run out which happenned to me at least once.

More signs of the bubble - a relative stranger is donating ETH to me because I inspired him to get involved in April with a couple emails.  My first crypto donation.  Hmm, are other people interested?  I could setup an address =)

We're at 14k.   If 11k doesn't hold, we could be in for a bear market.  I still expect one last pump going into Dec 18.

Korea premium is only $300 over GDAX.


there are a lot of forecasts for December. What worries me most is that some users have voiced the possibility or even the possibility of several Bitcoin forks by the end of the year. How this will affect the price, do not predict.
legendary
Activity: 1870
Merit: 1023
legendary
Activity: 1870
Merit: 1023
December 09, 2017, 02:20:10 PM
I used LTC in the past to move money.  Though I only held it for an hour or less as the transaction time is faster.  Though if too many people do it, the hot wallets will run out which happenned to me at least once.

More signs of the bubble - a relative stranger is donating ETH to me because I inspired him to get involved in April with a couple emails.  My first crypto donation.  Hmm, are other people interested?  I could setup an address =)

We're at 14k.   If 11k doesn't hold, we could be in for a bear market.  I still expect one last pump going into Dec 18.

Korea premium is only $300 over GDAX.

sr. member
Activity: 658
Merit: 282
December 09, 2017, 07:17:47 AM
...
Litecoin ATH up 49% in the past 24 hours. 
...


There are rumours that this is mainly caused by the huge transaction backlog of the BTC blockchain.
People, who wanted to sell their coins during the recent 2k dip often used LTC or other altcoins to transact in
order to get their coins to an exchange faster (many possible out of fear, because they thought the bubble might
pop completely).

This development was probably exacerbated by the fact that Bitfinex had problems to keep up with the withdrawal
demand and LTC was one of the currencies where withdrawals were still working flawlessly.

The BFX reddit was/is full of people complaining about their missing BTC and ETH withdrawals:
https://www.reddit.com/r/bitfinex/



legendary
Activity: 1870
Merit: 1023
December 08, 2017, 11:22:05 PM
According to the IRS instructions for F8949, I'm pretty sure that one cannot use the "average cost" method for Bitcoin capital gains.

See page 5.
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i8949.pdf

It looks like you can only use that method if you are dealing with mutual funds or some kind of dividend reinvestment.  As such, I think I need to refile my back taxes.  Will have to pay more for past years, but end up ahead overall (after 2017) as I can use FIFO and qualify for the long term capital gains rate.  Or I might try to figure out how to use "specific lots".

I'm doing a 10 minute phone consult with bitcoin tax accountant in CA on Monday.  I also downloaded an Ebook from Amazon on bitcoin/crypto and taxes - a decent read, though it didn't cover my question.

I'm tempted to sell 2 BTC if we get up to 20k territory.  Of course timing the top is almost impossible.

Litecoin ATH up 49% in the past 24 hours. 

Bitcoin dominance around 62%.
https://www.livecoinwatch.com  - an alternative to the bitconnect ponzi supporting "coinmarketplace.com" scam site.

legendary
Activity: 1870
Merit: 1023
December 08, 2017, 06:10:11 PM
I'm guessing the margin will be even higher than Bitfinex's 3.3x.  Unless the firms are willing to take big risks or have a way of getting money from their customers after the fact. We could easily have a 50% crash.

Andreas might have received 102 bitcoins, possibly more.  It's the wealth effect of the bubble. People have more money than they can figure out how to spend or invest.  I know I do.
http://fortune.com/2017/12/08/bitcoin-prices-anton-antonopoulos-rich/

By contrast, the "upgrade bitcointalk" donation fund had a lot more bitcoins (several thousand?) but was created when they were worth single digits.  I believe this Andreas donation is of epic proportions for both bitcoin and non-bitcoin (though some crowd sourced donations for medical problems may have matched it).
sr. member
Activity: 658
Merit: 282
December 08, 2017, 05:38:11 AM
...

Maybe high compared to other futures but when I say leverage will be much higher compared to what we have now that infers that the margin requirement is much lower.

leverage = contract value / margin requirement

Unlike crypto exchanges, these are set as fixed dollar amounts per contract. The exchange will set the overnight maintenance level and brokers set the day trading levels. The variation from broker to broker can be quite large and I haven't seen any announcements yet. I am expecting they will be quite conservative to start and then come down when they have more data for risk assessment. But in any case, they will be significantly higher than currently available. For example, 3.3x on Bitfinex compared to E-Mini S&P 500 currently ~330x with my broker.



Now I understand your argument better.

However, you are cherry picking here when you point out Bitfinex with 3.3x leverage. Bitmex
has been offering BTC futures (even a perpetual swap without an expiry date) for a long time and offers up to 100x leverage.

The difference now is that CBOE and CME are obviously operating at another level than Bitmex. Nevertheless, I still expect that the trading volume will not reach
the expectations that people currently have. In the long-term the introduction of these futures should be great, because as you already
pointed out this is only the prelude for other financial products related to BTC (e.g. an ETF).




hero member
Activity: 2576
Merit: 883
Freebitco.in Support https://bit.ly/2I9BVS2
December 08, 2017, 05:29:04 AM
...
Quite possible as the leverage will be much higher.

...


The margin requirements will be pretty high as well.

Maybe high compared to other futures but when I say leverage will be much higher compared to what we have now that infers that the margin requirement is much lower.

leverage = contract value / margin requirement

Unlike crypto exchanges, these are set as fixed dollar amounts per contract. The exchange will set the overnight maintenance level and brokers set the day trading levels. The variation from broker to broker can be quite large and I haven't seen any announcements yet. I am expecting they will be quite conservative to start and then come down when they have more data for risk assessment. But in any case, they will be significantly higher than currently available. For example, 3.3x on Bitfinex compared to E-Mini S&P 500 currently ~330x with my broker.

sr. member
Activity: 658
Merit: 282
December 08, 2017, 05:10:29 AM
...  Though I am expecting the futures to be underused compared to the hype.  ...

You could theoretically use the experiences of LedgerX as an indicator.

...
Quite possible as the leverage will be much higher.

...


The margin requirements will be pretty high as well.

...

-50 btc in donations to Andreas after Roger Ver shames him for being "poor"



Why do you see this as a "bubble indicator"? To me this just looks like a generous donation from a BTC whale
to a guy, who has done a lot to promote Bitcoin (lectures, interviews, Youtube videos, at least 2 books...).


hero member
Activity: 2576
Merit: 883
Freebitco.in Support https://bit.ly/2I9BVS2
December 08, 2017, 01:46:08 AM
GDAX makes a run at 20k - hitting 19697.  Was the exchange actually working at the time though? 

I did see reports that the API was unavailable for 30 minutes during the peak. Also that the exchange was heavily overloaded and difficult to use for much of the day. Bitfinex was under heavy DDoS attack all day and difficult to use for long periods as well.
 

There is a rumor that whales are buying with plans of dumping when futures are open.  While I normally ignore rumors, this one makes some sense.  The futures won't be backed by actual bitcoins (right?),

Technically correct but as futures contracts are deliverable many market participants will be using them to hedge actual Bitcoin positions.

so you could possibly make more money on the futures than you lose from selling your bitcoins.

Quite possible as the leverage will be much higher.

Though I am expecting the futures to be underused compared to the hype. 

I would agree there but it is an unknown and I'll be watching with interest.

I think we we already have most of the wall street money - and most of the remaining players are going to need a lot of convincing (and probably more stability) to get in.  And if the futures lack volume this plan won't work.  Though it is likely to dump/crash for other reasons.

Most of the Wall Street money is excluded at the moment. Hedge funds can play but major investment funds, pension funds etc. can't play. Futures don't change that in themselves but are the first step to making Bitcoin a legitimate investment. I would expect ETFs and other investment vehicles to be launched, this will be a gradual process.

For instance, three family members who I talk to have been saying I should "sell" forever. They still say "sell".  They aren't going to buy an asset that increased by 20x in the past year. Of course they are more risk adverse.

It looks like you have a great contrarian indicator there, you know what to do when they buy.
legendary
Activity: 1870
Merit: 1023
December 07, 2017, 04:38:33 PM
More signs of the bubble top.
-Korea has a $3000 premium or almost 20%.  Earlier this year we had China with a 10% premium for a while, but 20% premiums are rare.

-Crypto kitties (if you want to play with cats get a cat, or the new Sims 4 expansion) are also very bubbly.  Though they are in Ether which hasn't been doing so well.

-Almost all the altcoins are down in USD, and even more so in BTC.

-50 btc in donations to Andreas after Roger Ver shames him for being "poor"

legendary
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1193
December 07, 2017, 04:18:03 PM
Yup, that sounds plausible. In a day or two it might be a good time to lock in a small portion of profit.
legendary
Activity: 1870
Merit: 1023
December 07, 2017, 04:04:20 PM
There is a rumor that whales are buying with plans of dumping when futures are open.  While I normally ignore rumors, this one makes some sense.  The futures won't be backed by actual bitcoins (right?), so you could possibly make more money on the futures than you lose from selling your bitcoins.  Though I am expecting the futures to be underused compared to the hype.  I think we we already have most of the wall street money - and most of the remaining players are going to need a lot of convincing (and probably more stability) to get in.  And if the futures lack volume this plan won't work.  Though it is likely to dump/crash for other reasons.

For instance, three family members who I talk to have been saying I should "sell" forever. They still say "sell".  They aren't going to buy an asset that increased by 20x in the past year. Of course they are more risk adverse.
Pages:
Jump to: