I'm surprised by how healthy the bounce is. It might even be too healthy and indicate that we're still in a rampant bull market.
While we can survive without China ICOs, I think the larger crackdown is coming from the US and others. It could take a year, but eventually it should have a big impact - especially on Ether and the ICO tokens.
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 32. (Read 83088 times)
I suspect the Tether rumors are coming from people who dislike Bitfinex. Previously there were rumors/FUD about them still using the Bitcoinica code - when in fact I think they stopped using it in 2013.
I suspect some people are very angry about the Bitfinex hack. They sold for 25 cents on the dollar and are upset that we haven't even had a good report on it, whereas other people who held on got reimbursed fully (and the stock is now worth $2?)
I think it is in Bitfinex's long term self interest to be honest. They are making a ton of money and don't need to cook the books.
Conspiracy theorists often like to come up with complex explanations for things that are simple. For instance look at people who try to explain that ponzi schemes could actually be making 1%/day running a real business. In this case, it is easy for an exchange to add money to their database without it being backed by anything. MtGox probably did this. So why use Tether?
I suspect some people are very angry about the Bitfinex hack. They sold for 25 cents on the dollar and are upset that we haven't even had a good report on it, whereas other people who held on got reimbursed fully (and the stock is now worth $2?)
I think it is in Bitfinex's long term self interest to be honest. They are making a ton of money and don't need to cook the books.
Conspiracy theorists often like to come up with complex explanations for things that are simple. For instance look at people who try to explain that ponzi schemes could actually be making 1%/day running a real business. In this case, it is easy for an exchange to add money to their database without it being backed by anything. MtGox probably did this. So why use Tether?
GDAX/Coinbase is currently trading with a 7-8% premium over Bitfinex on BTC and LTC.
Also S. Korea bans ICOs.
Also S. Korea bans ICOs.
What is your opinion on the whole Tether / Bitfinex rumours?
In the last 3 days, 70 million $ worth of USDT has been issued:
http://omnichest.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3AgWkj9FMo5LsPTW1zBTwXL
If this money is not backed by real money (as the rumours suggest) this could have devastating effects for
the whole crypto market. Is there some merit to these rumours in your opinion or is this some
elaborate FUD?
Additionally, I´m really surprised that Ethereum is still above 290 $. ICOs are basically the whole
value proposition of ETH as of now and the China and South Korea News should have plummeted
the ETH exchange rate much more.
GDAX/Coinbase is currently trading with a 7-8% premium over Bitfinex on BTC and LTC.
Also S. Korea bans ICOs.
Also S. Korea bans ICOs.
China ICO ban might be real:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD3P935-J_A
Markets down a lot. Bitcoin was already down at least 10% before this happened and now down 20%. I sold small amounts all the way up to 4930 (and then removed my higher offers because I'm planning to hold 1+ year to reduce my US capital gains tax rate - and I was ruining my investment term by getting BTC swap interest).
If other countries get on board, this could be the beginning of the end of the ICO bubble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD3P935-J_A
Markets down a lot. Bitcoin was already down at least 10% before this happened and now down 20%. I sold small amounts all the way up to 4930 (and then removed my higher offers because I'm planning to hold 1+ year to reduce my US capital gains tax rate - and I was ruining my investment term by getting BTC swap interest).
If other countries get on board, this could be the beginning of the end of the ICO bubble.
I think the SEC will follow suite and crackdown on ICOs:
https://www.coindesk.com/canadian-regulators-many-ico-tokens-meet-securities-definition/
Also - RRT (Bitfinex recovery token) is up from 7 cents to a high 44, and current 25. The only information that I found was a deleted Reddit post claiming the hackers are returning the money. So that is suspicious.
https://www.coindesk.com/canadian-regulators-many-ico-tokens-meet-securities-definition/
Also - RRT (Bitfinex recovery token) is up from 7 cents to a high 44, and current 25. The only information that I found was a deleted Reddit post claiming the hackers are returning the money. So that is suspicious.
Looks like volatility is going up. Even though we're getting Segregated Witness locked-in (Aug 24), it looks like the debate over the NYA (New York Agreement for Segwit and then doubling block size) is heating up.
Without replay protection, it will be a straight fight between 2x and the regular chain in November (and whichever chain has the most hash power will win - though it may up to two weeks to settle down). That could be very messy, though there is also a history of last minute agreements and people systematically overestimating the importance of good or bad news in Bitcoin.
I wish it was possible to keep transaction fees at $1-$5 (or less of course) - so people like me can send test small transactions (ex. for splitting Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash), but I'm skeptical that any solution will last longer than the next 2-3 years. Even with big blocks, we'd probably need exponential growth in the block size which isn't going to be sustainable. We might end up having to use alt-coins for small transactions, and/or a centralized system (that is perhaps tied into bitcoin). I especially don't think micro transactions (say $.01) are going to work without a centralized system.
Without replay protection, it will be a straight fight between 2x and the regular chain in November (and whichever chain has the most hash power will win - though it may up to two weeks to settle down). That could be very messy, though there is also a history of last minute agreements and people systematically overestimating the importance of good or bad news in Bitcoin.
I wish it was possible to keep transaction fees at $1-$5 (or less of course) - so people like me can send test small transactions (ex. for splitting Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash), but I'm skeptical that any solution will last longer than the next 2-3 years. Even with big blocks, we'd probably need exponential growth in the block size which isn't going to be sustainable. We might end up having to use alt-coins for small transactions, and/or a centralized system (that is perhaps tied into bitcoin). I especially don't think micro transactions (say $.01) are going to work without a centralized system.
Transaction fees are increasing dramatically. If Lightning Network isn't ready for operation (is it?) and we don't double the block size until November - this could get very painful.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html
By contrast Ethereum fees are lower - so even though there are complaints about problems with ICOs and it be hard to run distributed aps due to the high cost of 'gas' (loosely related to transactions/processing power), the fees are still much lower than Bitcoin. Partially due to having larger blocks.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/ethereum-median_transaction_fee.html
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html
By contrast Ethereum fees are lower - so even though there are complaints about problems with ICOs and it be hard to run distributed aps due to the high cost of 'gas' (loosely related to transactions/processing power), the fees are still much lower than Bitcoin. Partially due to having larger blocks.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/ethereum-median_transaction_fee.html
Placed some small sell orders starting at around 4400 (every $100 on the way up). Of course then the price fell to 3830 and recovered so far to 4070.
It looks like we're in a bull cycle that lacks historical precedent. BTC has had large bull runs before, but never with such large market cap. As such it is very hard to predict anything. I didn't expect it to be so strong and so soon. It is very paradoxical that the creation of alt-coins and ICOs may be increasing the value of BTC - as I would have expected competition to limit the value.
It is also possible that I'm wrong in thinking that the alt-coins are in a bubble (though it'd be harder to argue the same for the ICOs), and that instead the community/developers/etc are creating a new economic ecosystem that has value.
There are some general market rules that probably apply. Notably the faster it goes up, the faster and deeper it goes down.
It looks like we're in a bull cycle that lacks historical precedent. BTC has had large bull runs before, but never with such large market cap. As such it is very hard to predict anything. I didn't expect it to be so strong and so soon. It is very paradoxical that the creation of alt-coins and ICOs may be increasing the value of BTC - as I would have expected competition to limit the value.
It is also possible that I'm wrong in thinking that the alt-coins are in a bubble (though it'd be harder to argue the same for the ICOs), and that instead the community/developers/etc are creating a new economic ecosystem that has value.
There are some general market rules that probably apply. Notably the faster it goes up, the faster and deeper it goes down.
Interesting and some people might go that route. It's also possible that BFX USD swap rates are going to go very low (eg 5-7% APR). There is definitely a major source or two of new funds which is able to add several million per day without a problem, and if the bull market turns into a bear market the rates will go very low. Especially if BFX can use its equity to back up any future hacks or thefts. How much BFX equity did the company retain?
I think it was to be expected that swap rates will go down in the long-term. It is probably just a result of a more mature market environment
for BTC trading in general. I strongly suspect that the BFX rates will reach a level, which is not much higher than the rates you pay for margin trading
at traditional fiat brokers (e.g. Schwab or Interactive Brokers in the US). If you are right regarding the new sources of funds, this could of course
speed up this process even more.
In other words, it was fun while it lasted
Interesting and some people might go that route. It's also possible that BFX USD swap rates are going to go very low (eg 5-7% APR). There is definitely a major source or two of new funds which is able to add several million per day without a problem, and if the bull market turns into a bear market the rates will go very low. Especially if BFX can use its equity to back up any future hacks or thefts. How much BFX equity did the company retain?
It seems like violating the TOS could get me in trouble (the great fear is that they'd confiscate my money, or more likely they would not return it if they got hacked/bankrupt). Is the only restriction on unverified people that they cannot withdraw or deposit fiat?
Your concerns are valid, violating the TOS obviously could have ramifications in case of such an event. Besides, it obviously is at least questionable in terms of ethics.
I just wanted to point out the theoretical possibility.
Yes, that is the only restriction! It is perfectly possible to deposit BTC, sell them and lend out the gained USD in order to take advantage
of the attractive interest rates without ever making a fiat deposit.
It seems like violating the TOS could get me in trouble (the great fear is that they'd confiscate my money, or more likely they would not return it if they got hacked/bankrupt). Is the only restriction on unverified people that they cannot withdraw or deposit fiat?
So far I found one story of a person getting in trouble, but they also used Tor. To get their money they had to verify.
So far I found one story of a person getting in trouble, but they also used Tor. To get their money they had to verify.
Good news is that Bitcoin keeps going up (though it looks increasingly like a bubble the faster it goes up - $3570 BTC + $330 Bitcoin Cash = $3900!). I removed my sell orders from the 3000 to 4000 range before they were hit.
Bad news for US residents, as Bitfinex is probably going to stop us from using their website in 90 days including swap lending. I don't think there is any place where a US resident can do USD swap lending. Poloniex only has lending in crypto. Quoine has USD lending, but not for US residents.
I might end up investing in the US stock market - which I don't want to because I feel it is overdue for a crash.
Bad news for US residents, as Bitfinex is probably going to stop us from using their website in 90 days including swap lending. I don't think there is any place where a US resident can do USD swap lending. Poloniex only has lending in crypto. Quoine has USD lending, but not for US residents.
I might end up investing in the US stock market - which I don't want to because I feel it is overdue for a crash.
What is stopping you from continuing to use Bitfinex? You can easily create a new account and don´t have
to provide any KYC documents.
I don´t really see a way how they can prevent you from using their service even if you
are based in the US.
Besides, you could always use someone else you trust and lend funds using their BFX account.
BTC as a technology makes settling with your "marionette" really easy.
Good news is that Bitcoin keeps going up (though it looks increasingly like a bubble the faster it goes up - $3570 BTC + $330 Bitcoin Cash = $3900!). I removed my sell orders from the 3000 to 4000 range before they were hit.
Bad news for US residents, as Bitfinex is probably going to stop us from using their website in 90 days including swap lending. I don't think there is any place where a US resident can do USD swap lending. Poloniex only has lending in crypto. Quoine has USD lending, but not for US residents.
I might end up investing in the US stock market - which I don't want to because I feel it is overdue for a crash.
Bad news for US residents, as Bitfinex is probably going to stop us from using their website in 90 days including swap lending. I don't think there is any place where a US resident can do USD swap lending. Poloniex only has lending in crypto. Quoine has USD lending, but not for US residents.
I might end up investing in the US stock market - which I don't want to because I feel it is overdue for a crash.
Bitcoin cash price is falling to more reasonable levels. I used Electron Cash to split my Bitcoin and am now ready to market dump all 0.4 BCC on Bitfinex.
Good process, especially if you have a second computer. Running Electron Cash on the same computer is probably not a good idea.
https://electrum.org/bcc2.txt
Good process, especially if you have a second computer. Running Electron Cash on the same computer is probably not a good idea.
https://electrum.org/bcc2.txt
Bitcoin cash pumps to 0.25 BTC on ViaBTC. Kraken is having trouble staying up.
Bitcoin Cash price ranges from $300 to $700.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-cash/#markets
I expect it to fall to $150 (aka 0.06 BTC) or less, but who knows!
Bitcoin Cash price ranges from $300 to $700.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-cash/#markets
I expect it to fall to $150 (aka 0.06 BTC) or less, but who knows!
I shouldn't be surprised as the Bitcoin Cash shenanigans/pump, but I am!
0.13 BTC on ViaBtc
https://www.viabtc.com/quot/realtime?currency=btc&dest=bcc&chart=simple
$500 on Bitrex, and $360 on Kraken.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-cash/#markets
So Kraken and ViaBTC are about the same which is interesting.
I think most people don't have their Bitcoin Cash, and so far as I can tell you cannot short it - which makes for easy pumping.
The total BTC + Bitcoin Cash value is $3100 which is a new ATH.
I guess it is very bullish that Bitcoin survived a hard fork with relatively little problems. So by lowering the overall risk in Bitcoin the price/value has increased a lot. That is until people decide to start creating hard forks every month (or every week) and push the level of risk back up. This is especially likely if Bitcoin Cash maintains a strong price (say 0.05 BTC or better) and hash rate. Though if you're looking for easy money it might be a lot more effective to start an ICO.
0.13 BTC on ViaBtc
https://www.viabtc.com/quot/realtime?currency=btc&dest=bcc&chart=simple
$500 on Bitrex, and $360 on Kraken.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-cash/#markets
So Kraken and ViaBTC are about the same which is interesting.
I think most people don't have their Bitcoin Cash, and so far as I can tell you cannot short it - which makes for easy pumping.
The total BTC + Bitcoin Cash value is $3100 which is a new ATH.
I guess it is very bullish that Bitcoin survived a hard fork with relatively little problems. So by lowering the overall risk in Bitcoin the price/value has increased a lot. That is until people decide to start creating hard forks every month (or every week) and push the level of risk back up. This is especially likely if Bitcoin Cash maintains a strong price (say 0.05 BTC or better) and hash rate. Though if you're looking for easy money it might be a lot more effective to start an ICO.
BCH is trading on Kraken for around $180. That Fairlay price (market is closed now) was twice that much!
https://www.kraken.com/charts
https://www.kraken.com/charts
Hmm, Poloniex has a policy of not distributing BTC to lenders. Oops. Oh well I'm hoping that lending will still return more than the value of Bitcoin Cash. That said, the price of Bitcoin Cash is still stubbornly high.
ViaBTC has it holding at 0.1 BTC
https://www.viabtc.com/quot/realtime?currency=btc&dest=bcc&chart=simple
Fairlay has it at 0.15 BTC (on very low volume)
https://fairlay.com/market/relative-market-price-of-bitcoin-cash-bcc/
Are there any other futures contracts for Bitcoin Cash or places where it is being traded?
If the value is 0.1 BTC, then you have to assume that BTC's price will also drop (after the fork) to approximately 0.9 BTC - so the value is actually 0.09 BTC (or 0.09 * 2800 USD).
But considering that Ethereum Classic is only worth 7% of Ethereum, I was expecting that Bitcoin Cash would do worse as it is on the wrong side of the hard fork. On the other hand it has a community behind it that is better than the DAO hackers. And it might be benefiting from ICO-mania.
ViaBTC has it holding at 0.1 BTC
https://www.viabtc.com/quot/realtime?currency=btc&dest=bcc&chart=simple
Fairlay has it at 0.15 BTC (on very low volume)
https://fairlay.com/market/relative-market-price-of-bitcoin-cash-bcc/
Are there any other futures contracts for Bitcoin Cash or places where it is being traded?
If the value is 0.1 BTC, then you have to assume that BTC's price will also drop (after the fork) to approximately 0.9 BTC - so the value is actually 0.09 BTC (or 0.09 * 2800 USD).
But considering that Ethereum Classic is only worth 7% of Ethereum, I was expecting that Bitcoin Cash would do worse as it is on the wrong side of the hard fork. On the other hand it has a community behind it that is better than the DAO hackers. And it might be benefiting from ICO-mania.
Jump to: